Windfall
Page 31
The history of Shell’s scenario planning is covered in The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz (New York: Doubleday/Currency, 1991) and a follow-up, Learnings from the Long View (Seattle: CreateSpace, 2011). Also helpful are Shell’s many public reports and the various writings of Art Kleiner, author of The Age of Heretics (New York: Doubleday/Currency, 1996).
To learn about California’s wildfires and their context, I read The Control of Nature by John McPhee (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1989), The Phoenix by Leo Hollis (London: Phoenix, 2009), and A Discourse of Trade by Nicholas Barbon (London, 1690). California and the American West’s never-ending struggles against drought are documented in Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner (New York: Viking, 1986), Unquenchable by Robert Glennon (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2009), and California: A History (New York: Modern Library, 2005), the historian Kevin Starr’s distillation of his seven-part series on the Golden State and the American dream.
Along with current and former U.S. government sources, Emma’s War by Deborah Scroggins (New York: Pantheon, 2002), The Root Causes of Sudan’s Civil Wars by Douglas H. Johnson (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2003), and Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand (New York: Random House, 1957) were my guides to Phil Heilberg’s patch of Africa. For an overview of global food crises, I turned to The Coming Famine by Julian Cribb (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2010) and An Essay on the Principle of Population by Thomas Malthus (London: J. Johnson, 1798). To understand the history of shelterbelts like the Great Green Wall, I read Woman Against the Desert by Wendy Campbell-Purdie (London: Victor Gollancz, 1967).
The amphibious future envisioned by Koen Olthuis is detailed in his book Float! (Amsterdam: Frame, 2010), written with David Keuning. The rise of infectious diseases in a warmer world is described in Changing Planet, Changing Health by the late Paul Epstein and Dan Ferber (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2011).
I was an early (and always silent) member of a lively Google Group discussing geoengineering that was started by Ken Caldeira, which gave me insight into the characters and motivations that would birth two excellent books as I was wrapping up my own: How to Cool the Planet by Jeff Goodell (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2010) and Hack the Planet by Eli Kintisch (Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley, 2010). SuperFreakonomics by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner (New York: William Morrow, 2009) helped explain the inner workings of Intellectual Ventures, while Fixing the Sky by James Rodger Fleming (New York: Columbia University Press, 2010) offered anecdotes and a much-needed reminder that we have always wanted to control the weather.
Geoengineering lectures I attended in 2010 and 2011 at the University of Washington attracted some of the nascent field’s best scientific and ethical minds: Fleming, David Keith, Dale Jamieson, Phil Rasch, Alan Robock, Jane Long, Christopher Preston, Steve Rayner, Ben Hale, and Michael Robinson-Dorn. Often in attendance was University of Washington professor David Battisti, who gladly discussed both the science and the intrigue of geoengineering with me. Stephen Gardiner, a philosophy professor who organized the lecture series, is also the author of A Perfect Moral Storm: The Ethical Tragedy of Climate Change (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011). His writings helped me understand that contrary to conventional wisdom, global warming is not a classic “tragedy of the commons” as first described by the ecologist Garrett Hardin—or at least that if it is, some of the metaphorical herdsmen among us have bigger cows.
When I traveled a second time to Alaska’s Chukchi Sea and stayed in the village of Point Hope, I carried with me The Firecracker Boys by Dan O’Neill (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1994), the story of how we nearly detonated six hydrogen bombs to create a new Arctic harbor—a brilliant history I wish I had read long ago.
Lastly, a note on translations: Some in the book are my own. For dialogues originally in Russian or French, I have done my best to capture the speakers’ meaning—but rarely can I capture their eloquence. The few phrases originally in Spanish are better rendered.
INDEX
The page numbers in this index refer to the printed version of this book. To find the corresponding locations in the text of this digital version, please use the “search” function on your e-reader. Note that not all terms may be searchable.
Aamodt, Jim, 102
abiotic stress tolerance, 246–47
Acciona, 167
acid rain, 271
activation energy, 63
Acuña, René, 129
adaptation, 10, 111–12, 210–12, 222–23, 229–32, 267
Aedes aegypti mosquito, 235–36, 237
breeding places, 238, 239
genetically modified OX513A, 236, 239–40, 242, 247, 250–53
producing sterility in, 241–44
spraying, 239–40
Aedes albopictus mosquito, 236, 244, 250
Affordable H2Ousing, 227
Africa:
deportations to, 174
refugees from, 172–75, 180–84, 191
African Agricultural Technology Foundation, 245
Agcapita, 153
agriculture:
increased growing days, 21, 64, 152, 153
land for, 137, 139–59
and salinity, 195, 198
and water, 87, 90, 148, 205
Agrifirma, 153
Aguas de Barcelona, 21–22
AIG (American International Group), 98, 99, 103–5, 109, 110, 113, 115
alarm fatigue, 52
Alaska:
and Arctic claims, 32, 36
endangered villages in, 19, 65
and lease sale, 49, 53, 55–57, 286–87
and oil, 46, 48–49
water contracts in, 122
Alaska Gas Pipeline Project, 46
albedo, 21, 262, 266
Al-Faisal, Prince Mohamed, 122
Algodones Dunes, 126, 128
All-American Canal, 125–29, 130, 167, 264
All-Assam Students Union (AASU), 190, 191, 206
Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), 215–16, 226
Al Maktoum, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, 227
Alphey, Luke, 241–44, 250–53
Alps, melting glaciers in, 65–66, 79–83, 86
American Enterprise Institute (AEI), 267, 276, 279
American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 232
American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 243
Andermatt, Switzerland, 80
Anderson, Terry, 132–33
Angus and Ross, 73
Anopheles gambiae mosquito, 247
Anthropocene epoch, 5, 252
Aquaterra, 222
aqueducts, 125
Aqueous, 124
aquifers, 205
Arad, Elisha, 89–91
Arcadis, 229, 230–31, 233–34
Arctic:
development plans for, 45–46, 47
melting sea ice in, 21, 32, 35, 45, 47, 48, 56, 64–66, 77–78, 118, 194, 203, 284, 287–88
national claims on, 32, 35–37, 38
new shipping lanes in, 16–18, 25–26, 31–32, 54, 284
and petroleum, 16, 31, 32–33, 47, 286
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 46
Arctic Council, 194
Arctic Frontiers conference, 45–47
Arctic Ocean, and Law of the Sea, 36
Argentina, land deals in, 153
ARIS (Automatic Rice Imaging System), 248–49
Aristotle, 66
Arrhenius, Svante, 5
Ashkelon, Israel, 88–91
Assam, 189–92, 205–6
Assam Movement, 206
Athabasca tar sands, 21, 52, 58, 263–64
Atkin, Carl, 152, 154
Atmocean, 273
Aurora Flight Sciences, 269
Australia:
drought in, 88, 92, 101, 119, 132, 133, 135, 144, 152, 203, 221, 261
Number 1 Rabbit-Proof Fence, 177
water markets in, 132, 133–37
Austria, melting glaciers in, 79–81
Ayles Ice Shelf, 19–20
Baffin Bay, 63
Bahama Islands, 64, 220
Ballou, Rip, 245
Bangladesh, 189–213
border fence, 190–92, 206–9, 212–13
borders of, 191
crops grown in, 195
cyclones in, 196
and flooding, 64, 192, 196–97, 199, 203, 233, 280
foreign aid to, 212
and India, 167, 190–92, 197, 204–9, 210, 212
population growth in, 204, 209
poverty of, 191
refugees from, 191, 204, 206–12
and war games, 203–4
water salinity in, 195, 198
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), 198–99
Bar, Etan, 92–93, 119
Barbon, Nicholas, 112–14
Barents Sea, 37, 53
BASF, 246–47, 249–50
Bashir, Omar, 147, 149
Bay of Bengal, 191, 195, 196
Beatrix, queen of Netherlands, 229
Beaufort Sea, 36, 48, 49
Beckett, Margaret, 20
Ben-Gurion, David, 84, 87
Bentham, Jeremy, 50–51, 52, 58–59
Bidwells, 152
Bikini Atoll, 216
biofuels, 52, 59
biotechnology, 249–50
Blaauw, Robert Jan, 45, 47–49
Black, George, 210
Black Angel fjord, 73, 74, 77–78
Black Earth Farming, 153
BlackRock, 153
Blue Sky Water Partners, 134
Boeing, 269
Borlaug, Norman, 249
BP, 43, 104, 230
BRAC, 210
Brahmaputra River, 189–90, 193, 195, 196, 199
Brazil:
and land deals, 140, 144, 153
and mosquitoes, 243
Brock, Stan, 103
Buffett, Warren, 263
Buiter, Willem, 118, 121
Buoyant Foundation Project, 231
Buriganga River, 197–98
Burma, border of, 191
Bush, George W., 29, 55
Busuttil, Simon, 171–74
Byers, Michael, 24, 25, 26–27, 128
Cain, James P., 71
Caldeira, Ken, 265, 266, 268, 272, 273, 275
Cal Fire, 102
California:
drought in, 100
fires in, 97–107
insurance in, 108–9
water for, 125, 127–28, 130
Cambodia, and land deals, 144
Cameroon, and land deals, 144
Campbell-Purdie, Wendy, 163, 177
Canada:
and Arctic claims, 32
and Arctic traffic control, 25
First Nations tribes, 153
increased growing days in, 21, 152, 153
Inuit in, 67–68
and Kyoto Protocol, 21
and Law of the Sea, 36
and natural gas, 22
and Northwest Passage, 15–19, 25–27, 32
sovereignty of, 15–19, 27, 67
tar sands in, 21, 52, 58, 263–64
and U.S. cooperation, 26
water in, 24–25
Canary Islands, 164, 165, 168, 172
Cancún Climate Change Conference (2010), 10
Cantwell, Maria, 255–59
cap-and-trade system, 44, 45, 59
Cape York Peninsula, 136
carbon dioxide emissions:
and CCS, 49–51, 53, 58, 59
cutting, 7, 10, 217
and lawsuits, 110
levels of, 5, 32, 52, 92, 199, 210
and melting sea ice, 45
and plant growth, 21
sources of, 52, 191, 204–5
trading scheme, 151–52, 212
Carteret Islands, 64, 65
Cassar, Joseph, 181
Cato Institute, 133
Causeway Water Fund, 134
Cayman Islands, 243–44
CCS (carbon capture and storage), 49–51, 53, 58, 59
Center for a New American Security, 203–4
Center for Naval Analysis, 30
Centra Technology, 204
CH2M Hill, 123
Chacaltaya glacier, 80
Chaffey, George, 125
Chernobyl, 260
Cherrapunji, 213
Chevron, 63, 65
Chilingarov, Artur, 35, 36, 37
China:
cloud seeding in, 87–88, 260
energy demands of, 47, 50
floods in, 119
Great Wall of, 176–77
and Greenland, 72
and land deals, 144
megadams in, 195
and Northwest Passage, 31
rivers diverted in, 87
water shortages in, 144, 152
Chowdhury, Atiqul Islam (Atique), 197–202, 205, 209
Chubb insurance, 103
Chukchi Sea, 36, 48, 285–87
Lease Sale 193: 49, 55–57, 286–87
Church, John, 194
CIA, 72, 268
Citigroup, 118, 121
Climatic Consequences: Investment Implications of a Changing Climate, 21
Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, 238
Clean Air Act, 271
Climate Change Vulnerability Index, 205, 222
Climate Corporation, 109
climate lawsuits, 65, 110, 218, 263
climate refugee law, 219
climate remediation, 266–69
cloud seeding:
and hurricane modification, 110, 260
and rainmaking, 87–88, 92, 259–61
and rain prevention, 260
and snowmaking, 261
and solar radiation management, 266
Club of Rome, Limits to Growth, 3
coal, sources of, 32, 46, 52
COAST, 197, 210
Colbert Report, The, 203
Coles, Terry, 108
Colorado River, 86, 117–18, 121, 125–26, 131
Colorado River Compact (1922), 125
Columbia Law School, island nations conference, 215–21
ConocoPhillips, 45, 46, 57, 65
continental shelf, 32, 36
Copenhagen Climate Change Conference (2009), 10, 68, 110, 217, 226, 266, 274
Corrections Corporation of America, 174
Credit Suisse, 118, 120
CropDesign, 249–50
Cyclone Aila, 196, 201
Cyclone Sidr, 196, 200, 201–3
Cypress Mountain, Canada, 85
Daffern, Tim, 74–75
Davidge, Ric, 124
Dead Sea, 90
Deepwater Horizon, 55
Delta Works, 221
dengue fever, 217, 235–43, 244, 250
Dengue Vaccine Initiative, 245
Denmark:
and Arctic claims, 32
and Greenland, 36, 61, 67–68, 70–71, 73
and Law of the Sea, 36
desalination, 58, 83, 84, 85, 88–91, 122, 167, 221
desertification, 131, 146, 162–63, 167, 233
Deutsche Bank, 5
“The Investment Climate Is Changing” event, 1–3
investment funds of, 2, 3, 88, 153, 245
Devon Island, 17, 23, 27–29, 33–35, 39–4
0
Dickerson, John, 118, 119–21, 129–33
DiGiovanna, Chief Sam, 97–107, 110–11, 114, 115–16
Dircke, Piet, 229, 231, 232, 233
directional drilling, 48
Disney, Walt, 259
Doyle, Michael, 238–41
drought, 118, 144, 203
and cloud seeding, 261
and desalination, 88, 221
and desertification, 131, 167
engineering solutions for, 86, 92–93
and fires, 100, 101–2
and food crisis, 133
and food prices, 152
and sale of water rights, 131–36
and volcanoes, 279–80
Dubai, coastline of, 227
Dubner, Stephen, 275
Duncan, Sara, 247
Duoyuan Global Water, 3
Dutch Docklands, 225–28
DynCorp International, 102
Ecofin fund, 134
Egede, Hans, 67
Egypt:
famine in, 280
farmland in, 147–48
Ellesmere Island, 19, 32, 36
Emergent Asset Management, 153–54
Emma Maersk, 233
Endangered Species Act, 46
energy independence, 52
energy sources, 47–48, 50–52, 58
Enewetak Atoll, 220
Enlightenment, 86
Enoksen, Hans, 71
Eqecat, 108
Ethiopia:
Blue Nile in, 148
food aid to, 148
and land deals, 140, 144, 148
European Border Surveillance System, 167
Exercise Frozen Beaver, 17
extinction, 208, 252
ExxonMobil, 45, 63, 65, 104, 267
Exxon Valdez, 123, 278
F&C Global Climate Opportunities Fund, 4, 108
Farakka Barrage, India, 195
Farmers Insurance, 103, 104–6, 115
Feinstein, Dianne, 127
FEMA, 238
fire, 99–102
Great Fire of London, 112, 114
and insurance, 98, 102–10, 114
Firebreak Spray Systems, 102–4, 105, 109, 275
firefighting, public vs. for-profit, 97-107, 111–12, 114–15