children generally learn reading and mathematics by passive as-similation by the age of two or three. The oldest known HIS child, Charlie B., is now four. He was born in Philadelphia eleven months after Warday, six months before that city was temporarily evacuated due to high radiation levels caused by the Washington and New York strikes. Charlie B. is physically developed to the size of a normal four-year-old. He is the clear intellectual superior of all adults who work with him. He has no formal education; indeed, there is no educational system yet devised that can help him. He reads four languages, is conversant in the most abstruse mathematics and physics, and has what his parents describe as a "vast"
memory. He is often despondent. His family has plans to move from its present home in Los Angeles to England if Charlie is accepted, at the age of seven, by Oxford.
There are eighteen identified HIS children in the United States.
Twenty-four are known to have been born, but one was killed in a home fire and five have died for other reasons. Poor reporting and record-keeping may mean that there are undiagnosed HIS
children.
These two are the basic "mutant/super-beast" rumors that are current in California. Variations are many, including the Hopping Devil rumor that seems to be a variant of the Giant Bat story, and 154 WARDAY
the story of the secret think-tank at Cal Tech where Japanese scientists exploit HIS children in the development of ever more extraordinary technologies, which they do not share with the Americans.
Since there cannot be any HIS children older than four, this last rumor appears to be without real substance, though the exploitation of HIS children is something that the Relief or some responsible U.S. agencies should certainly examine very closely.
The Immigrant Quickstep
Father Dougherty explained to us that the only way to evade the California authorities was to keep moving from city to city or, even better, to leave the state at once. He warned us that we were taking great risks staying in L.A. even long enough to go downtown so Jim could gather documents from the remains of the old federal government, which has its offices in the L.A. Federal Complex.
When it became clear to him that we weren't going to change our minds, he insisted on driving us. He felt that, without help, we had no chance of staying out of the hands of the police.
On the way into the center of the city, Father Dougherty told us that, like it or not, he was leaving us at Union Station after Jim got his documents. He briefed us about how to contend with the various travel zones.
"You have Red Zones, Yellow Zones, Blue Zones, and Green Zones. Stick to the Greens. They lead to the intrastate tracks, which will be on your left as you pass through the main waiting room. Yellow Zones are for incoming trains from our sister restricted-immigration states, Washington and Oregon. Red Zones are for trains arriving from abroad, which means the rest of the United States. Don't even look as if you might be interested in them. Remember that the IPs are just dying to check you out Need I add that there is also a White Zone in the waiting room? It's 155
156 WARDAY
for the outgoing Southwest and Sunset Limiteds, and the Desert
Wind. Nobody will bother you in the White Zone."
We arrived at the Federal Complex and parked. There were plenty of empty spaces. Father Dougherty and I would wait while Jim looked up a few likely parties in the government. He had some contacts he had met during the years he researched and wrote about atomic weapons and the community of men around them.
The federal government takes up only the lower floors of the federal building. Most of the structure is given over to the California State Department of Small-Scale Agricultural Control (Southern Region), an organization devoted to the licensing and regulation of private gardens.
According to Father Dougherty, Jim had at all costs to avoid straying into any part of the complex controlled by the state. "The President and the Governor aren't friends," was the way he put it.
"This is a state in name only. Within five years it's going to be ac-crediting ambassadors. Already there's an Embassy Row in Sacra-mento. But as far as the Feds are concerned, you'll be subject to their laws on their territory—which means you'll have full constitutional rights below the eighth floor of the building. If somebody on the federal floors asks for your ID, ask for his warrant. But, for God's sake, don't go upstairs."
As he crossed the parking lot, I could see that Jim was edgy. I did not envy him this duty. We hoped for the chance of an interview with the President, or at least with some senior officials. So little is known nowadays about the federal government, we felt that anything we could get would be of enormous value.
The silence of waiting settled into the car. Father Dougherty turned on the radio, a new Sony. There were about ten stations up and down the dial. Twisting it, I heard the Beach Boys. Their voices, the tone and feel of the music, evoked the past, summer weather. How anybody can bear to listen to the Beach Boys for very long these days, I cannot imagine.
It is interesting that the past has come to seem so beautiful. I wish we could remember it clearly enough to avoid its mistakes.
But I am coming to recall it more for its laughter than its danger. I remember how Anne and I used to enjoy SoHo, and the East Vil-
CALIFORNIA DANGERS 157
lage galleries that were gaining a foothold by about '84. Extremes in art spoke to us then, though I cannot now remember why. America was sunshine, wasn't it?
It was also excitement. I remember, for example, space exploration. At the time I took at most mild interest, but now I'm fascinated. What wonders we accomplished: the moon landings and Viking, and the Space Shuttle. Most of all, the confirmation by the Infrared Astronomy Satellite in '85 of the planetary system around Barnard's Star, with a fifth planet that might be very like Earth.
Suddenly Father Dougherty started the car. Jim was hurrying toward us, a thick manila envelope under his arm.
"I didn't manage to see the President," he said as he got in,
"but I got good stuff. Some Presidential papers on radiation, and a report on the state of the upper atmosphere."
"Meaning you two will finally do the sensible thing and leave Los Angeles?"
Jim nodded. "I still don't have many California state documents, but maybe I'll pick some up in San Francisco."
"So you still intend to remain in California, do you? I can't bear the thought of people getting arrested for nothing. I wish you'd re-consider. The moment you buy a White Zone ticket, the IPs will leave you alone."
We had been through this at the rectory. We didn't need him to convince us of how poor our odds were. But the book could not be complete without a visit to San Francisco.
"We've got to try, Father."
He sighed, then got out of the car and opened the trunk. He brought out a small suitcase, opened it on the front seat. "These are clerics' suits. Get into the darned things and God go with you."
I am not sure how convincing we were as priests, but the collars and jackets certainly changed our attitudes. To cops we would now seem a lot more confident, a lot more normal.
My black suit fit well. Jim's was a bit too short. "Well now, Fathers," Father Dougherty said, "you look like a couple of rascals if ever I saw them." He showed us the priestly blessing. "People will ask for it, so be ready to give it. God will forgive you for this little impersonation, since it's in a good cause," he said. Then he drove us 158 WARDAY
to Union Station and blessed us himself. 'Take my advice and buy your tickets on the White Zone trains." He laughed. "I sound like a broken record, I know. But please. For your own sakes."
We thanked him and said good-bye.
There was an atmosphere of subdued intensity in Union Station. Along one wall of the waiting room, a high cyclone fence enclosed a makeshift holding area. In it, the morning's suspects sat on benches, most of them going through their purses and wallets before they appeared before the examiners to verify their right to be in California. These were people
who had gotten through the P.O.E. nets, only to be tripped up just when they must have thought they were free.
It does not take long for such scenes to seem normal.
We bought tickets on the Coast Daylight, which was leaving for Oakland in thirty minutes, and sat ourselves down in the Green Zone waiting area with our tickets showing from our top pockets, like everybody else. The economy sections of the train were already full, so we were forced to buy First Class Ultras, which are four times as expensive as normal coach seats. We consoled ourselves with the thought that a police spot check of two priests in the VIP cars was unlikely.
Documents from
the Acting Presidency
I believe we must adjourn this meeting to some
other place.
—Last words of Adam Smith, 1790
ON THE ROAD
The federal government has been in transit since Warday.
Though diminished in size, it is still a complex institution. Because the current President has not been legitimized by the ballot, he considers himself more a caretaker than a leader.
For example, he would not grant me an interview on the premise that it would not be in keeping with his "custodial" role, as he described it. Acting President White is in office simply because he was vacationing at Key Largo on Warday, and had the good sense to stay there for a month rather than attempting to return to Washington. He was Undersecretary of the Treasury, and as such was the highest federal official to both survive the war and agree to serve as President.
I have collected here a sampling of the sort of documents that might cross the President's desk on a given day. They reflect, more than anything, a government trying to grapple with what happened to it, and to identify the direction of the future.
There was resistance to my getting these documents. Even some recently appointed federal officials are nervous that there will eventually be trials. I think not. I suspect that the people are beyond placing the details of blame.
When I found resistance to my requests, I reminded my contacts that the government has a long tradition of disclosure. The 159
160 WARDAY
present bureaucracy is very concerned with traditions, right down to the painting of the few government cars with the exact L.A. motor-pool designations they would have had before the war, and the meticulous use of the old bureaucratic forms for every functional detail.
These three documents are about the one effect of Warday that is hardest to grapple with—in a way, the most consistently surprising effect: radioactivity.
It is what worries the acting President the most.
CALIFORNIA DANGERS 161
MEMORANDUM
TO: CHARLES F. DURRELL, JR.
Assistant to the President for Emergency War Affairs FROM: Winston Sajid
Chairman, Committee on Long-Term Effects
National Security Agency
DATE: 30 March 1992
SUBJ: 12th Report on Atmospheric Effects
Concurrent studies by U.S. and United Kingdom task forces suggest a continuing deterioration of stratospheric conditions.
Specifically, there has been an observed depletion or thinning of the ozone layer of the upper atmosphere. Studies conducted in the summer of 1988 have been used as a baseline measure. A full report on all aspects of atmospheric deterioration is complex, but for purposes of summary it can be reported that an overall depletion of approximately 14 percent has occurred in four years.
It must be emphasized that while a further depletion might be expected in future years, it is not possible at this time to project a statistical trend with any certitude. Such a trend is difficult to predict because (1) little data were collected for approximately 18 months following the war, until atmospheric studies were resumed by the U.K. and other Western European nations ; and (2) such a dramatic change in ozone levels is unprecedented and existing mathematical models are not sophisticated enough to consider all the variables.
Data are presently being gathered to document the observed increases in skin cancers, increased propensities to skin b u r n s and rashes, and the most significant ecological ef-
, ,
, ,
fects, such as the warming trends at the North and South poles, the disappearance of some subtropical vegetation, and the global depression in crop production.
162 WARDAY
At this time, the American-based U.K. atmospheric teams are preparing a series of high-altitude rocket surveys, as well as completing, with the University of Tokyo's Atmospheric Research Laboratory, a multivariate computer model designed to calculate long-term ozonal changes.
The President will be informed as soon as this Agency has had a chance in the next six months to review the results of these studies.
CALIFORNIA DANGERS 163
C O N F I D E N T I A L
REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT
PROJECTED LONG-TERM RADIATION EFFECTS AS A RESULT
OF THE OCTOBER 1988 WAR
PREPARED BY THE LI VERM ORE NATIONAL LABORATORY
DECEMBER 7, 1992
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
On December 1, 1992, the Livermore National Laboratory completed a six-month effort to assess existing studies on the long-term radiation effects of the October 1988 war. Data from this study were then used to calculate the somatic and genetic effects that can be expected over the next 35 to 40 years. Using information from European and Japanese sources, the study was also able to assess long-term radiation effects on areas (1) outside of the United States affected by fallout, and (2) within the Soviet Union as a result of the American counterattack.
BACKGROUND OF THE ATTACK
The Soviet attack in October 1988 was directed against three urban centers (New York, Washington, D.C., and San Antonio, Texas) and against the operational SAC bomber bases and ICBM fields located in four upper Central and Western states (Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota). It is believed that some 300 + megatons (MT) of effective yield were realized in this attack. The Soviets employed a strategy against urban centers of detonating their weapons at a height of some 7,000 feet, which was clearly intended to heighten the range of destruction.
Against military targets they employed a mixed strategy of airbursts against airbases and groundbursts against hardened missile silos. Airbursts and groundbursts above cities appear to have averaged some 10 MT each.
It should be remembered that impacted areas remain highly radioactive for a period of time, although considerable radioactive decay will occur within the first 30 days. Fallout, how-
164
WARDAY
ever, continues over an extended period of time. While lethal doses of radiation may not occur, sublethal doses have been common; most of this fallout, sufficient to have caused considerable injury, was material deposited in the troposphere and brought down to earth over a period of weeks, largely by rain.
Some fallout was placed into the stratosphere, where it will continue to fall to earth over a period of years. Radioactive elements such as strontium 90 and carbon 14 have particularly long lives and pose the greatest danger over the long term.
Our projections for long-term radiation effects are p e r -
haps most affected by the fallout of these dangerous elements*
PROJECTED LONG-TERM EFFECTS FROM RADIATION
Given the nature of the Soviet attack, the targets, calculated MY yield, and existent and projected fallout, the following s o -
matic and genetic effects can be anticipated in the United States alone over the next 3 5 - 4 0 y e a r s : SOMATIC EFFECTS
Cancer deaths
3,000,000
Thyroid cancers
2,000,000
Thyroid nodules
3,000,000
GENETIC EFFECTS
Abortions due to
chromosomal damage
1,500,000
Other genetic effects
4,500,000
These same effects, considered for the Northern Hemisphe
re (concentrated between 30 degrees and 60 degrees North Latitude) for the same time period, are as follows:
SOMATIC EFFECTS
Cancer deaths
1,500,000
Thyroid cancers
1,400,000
Thyroid nodules
2,000,000
CALIFORNIA DANGERS 165
GENETIC EFFECTS
Abortions due to
chromosomal damage 850,000
Other genetic effects 3,000,000
The estimated effects on the Soviet Union as a result of the American attack, over the same time period, are as follows: SOMATIC EFFECTS
Cancer deaths
1,500,000
Thyroid cancers
2,500,000
Thyroid nodules
3,600,000
GENETIC EFFECTS
Abortions due to
chromosomal damage 1,750,000
Other genetic effects 2,000,000
These projections, of course, do not include those individ uals killed either during the attack or shortly thereafter.
166 WARDAY
PRESIDENTIAL BRIEFING PAPER
National Security Council
Committee on Long-Term Radiation Effects
August 27, 1992
The Committee on Long-Term Radiation Effects was asked by the Executive Office on August 1, 1992, to prepare a summary of information available on the physiological and related socio-psychological effects observed to date in victims of the nuclear bombings of 1988, especially on those effects caused by or related to radiation. Further, we were asked to report wherever possible on data for both the United States and the Soviet Union. Unfortunately, scientific information is largely unavailable from the Soviet Union. Secondary observations from visiting European teams suggest, however, that long-term trends observed here in the United States are generally comparable to trends believed to exist in the USSR. It is not the intention of this summary report to describe political developments, as more complete studies of the subject are available from other government agencies.
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