We could do it. We could spiral down until we have so few surplus resources that Roberto Vacca's knockout becomes possible; to a point where we have little, and many seethe with discontent, and suddenly it all explodes in riots, or war, or chaos; and when we recover from that (some of us) we will find that the business of living takes all our talents and energies; and our grandchildren will curse our memories.
It doesn't have to be that way. Here is another future.
* * *
First, war. Consider the following sequence of events. DeGaulle gives China the atom bomb, and when asked why says he has done nothing that Richelieu didn't do: when threatened with a European enemy, aid the Turks (or some other Asian). The Soviets begin a new Berlin crisis. The Chinese attack a small Soviet island at Ussuri. The Soviets back down on Berlin and begin moving troops in massive numbers toward their eastern frontier. After three weeks of buildup they retake the island. The Chinese glare at them across the river.
Marshal Gretchko goes to diplomatic parties and makes dark hints. In ten days there maybe nuclear war. He hopes the West will understand. The West makes no response at all.
The Soviets discover their nuclear weapons are very dirty: following atomic war with China most of the population of Japan may die from the fallout. In the US knowledgeable people get out their Bendix fallout radiometers and dosimeters and buy new batteries for them and make a few other preparations.
More Soviet troops move to the east, a massive deployment until over a hundred divisions are on the Chinese border.
Henry Kissinger takes satellite photographs of the Soviet deployment to China. Ping-pong teams begin moving back and forth. Lin Piao, the most dangerous man in China, dies in mysterious circumstances that may never be known to Westerners.
Nixon goes to China.
It all happened, in that sequence. Add this: a few years later the Soviets declassified their fusion research and brought the bag over here in the hopes that we could make use of it. (We immediately classified what they gave us, putting a blanket over the blackboard.) Soviet experts privately say their need for fusion energy is great; they have a lot of development to do. They also build a fast breeder fission reactor based on US technology (we have yet to build one, of course).
Suggestive of what? This much: that at least some officials in the Soviet Union are now convinced that games against nature have a higher payoff than conquest; that they couldn't run China when they had it, and can't now; that if their system were introduced into western Europe (Hungarian joke: "The Soviets have crossed a cow with a giraffe to produce a marvelous animal that feeds in Budapest and is milked in Moscow") European production would not only fall, but the Soviet economy would be worse off.
Give it a couple of generations and possibly, just possibly, the dinosaurs will die. It takes skillful diplomacy by the West, but it's possible. If we can discourage the dinosaurs until the technicians are in control of the Soviet Union, we will have peace. My private opinion is that the best way to discourage the dinosaurs is to remain so strong that they have no expectation of winning—Cato's advice. "If you would have peace, prepare thou then for war." I realize that is not universally accepted, neither among the ruling elite in the US, nor among you, my readers.
But assume the dinosaurs are contained, and the trends toward cooperation continue; that we do not end in war. It is possible.
Next, the energy crisis. We know how to produce the energy. Solar Power Satellites could be delivering power to Earth well before the end of the century. Geo-pressure zones can relieve the natural gas crisis. At the AAAS meeting in 1978 the fusion scientists announced that we could, given money and luck, have a working reactor delivering commercial power before 1995; it isn't inevitable, but it's certainly possible.
Princeton University recently announced that through the use of highly advanced technology—neutral beam currents—they were able to achieve temperatures of 60 million degrees. This unexpected breakthrough (it wasn't thought they'd do that well for several more years) could lead to a working fusion reactor before 1990—if we want one.
And after all—as the dollar plummets, it is going to become obvious to all that when your energy system is to pay $50 billion and more each year for foreign oil, you can afford any alternative; that research is cheap at the price. Perhaps the western states' senators will exert enough pressure to get the fusion budget restored. After all, Carter backed down on canceling all those waterways plans; and it's even possible that someone will appreciate the need for research without regard to electoral politics. Isn't it?
We could have working reactors before the year 2000.
Then there are the ocean thermal systems: at the moment they're getting paper-study money only, and although it's widely announced that a demonstration plant will be built, the fact is that nothing beyond paper has been funded; but suppose the money comes through to bend tin and cut metal, and the plant is built. It won't be commercial, but from it we should learn how to make commercially viable plants; and we can build research stations as described in my book HIGH JUSTICE.
And—we could go to space. This year the Congress asked, pointedly, why NASA proposed no new starts; why there was nothing bold and imaginative in the national space program. The administration may have bought Zero-Growth, and true, Vice President Mondale while a Senator each year introduced a bill to kill NASA entirely, abolish all its research and development; but the Congress seems to have taken new interest in space. Only one of the shuttles has been canceled. We do have a shuttle commitment, if only because we have treaty obligations to the Europeans who have developed Spacelab. The Enterprise will never go to space, but others will. It is possible that commercial firms will be given the opportunity to rent time in orbit at reasonable rates.
It has been the historic role of government to explore the frontiers and build roads to them; perhaps the Congress will recognize that space is not essentially different from California in that respect.
There is so much going for us. Biologists are fairly sure that a massive research effort will double the efficiency of plants. The computer engineers continue to produce their marvels. We have discovered geo-pressure zones.
And we can afford the research: indeed, given the alternative of $50 billion annually now, and $100 billion a year expected, as the price of imported fuels, we can afford everything: we can pursue all our lines of research, fund them well, and confidently expect to save vast sums when even one of the many routes to energy independence pays off.
There is an alternative to Zero-Growth. People could learn to expect more, not less; know that if they work harder they can have it, for themselves and their children.
It's a possible future. Isn't it? If it's not, don't tell me; because I want to believe that there is a chance; that I may live to see that world I describe in my lectures; that before I die I can say "My generation gave mankind the planets and the stars; and I was a part of it."
THE END
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A Step Farther Out
Table of Contents
PREFACE: THE FREEDOM OF CHOICE
by Larry Niven
FOREWORD
by A E. van Vogt
PART ONE: SURVIVAL WITH STYLE
Commentary
Survival with Style
A Blueprint for Survival
How Long to Doomsday?
That Buck Rogers Stuff
PART TWO: STEPPING FARTHER OUT
Commentary
Here Come the Brains
The Big Rain
Flying Saucers
Building the Mote in God's Eye
by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle
PART THREE: A STEP FARTHER IN: BLACK HOLES
Commentary
Gravity Waves, Black Holes, and Cosmic Censors
Fuzzy Black Holes Have No Hair
Crashing Neutron Stars, Mini Black Holes, and Spacedrives
"In the Beginn
ing . . ."
Afterword to Part Three
PART FOUR: SPACE TRAVEL
Commentary
Halfway to Anywhere
Those Pesky Belters and Their Torchships
Ships for Manned Spaceflight
Life Among the Asteroids
What's It Like Out There?
PART FIVE: A GENERATION OF WONDER
Commentary
A Potpourri
Highways to Space
"Come Fly with Me"
The Tools of the Trade (And Other Scientific Matters)
PART SIX: THE ENERGY CRISIS
Commentary
Fusion Without Ex-Lax
Can Trash Save Us?
The Moral Equivalent of War
CONCLUSION
Some Futures
A Step Farther Out Page 34
