by S. P. Perone
The Bear had provided discreet and generous financial support for al-Qa’eda, but it was not without attached strings. He had received a pledge from bin Laden to execute a sustained and coordinated major act of terrorism against the United States, which Sharif would personally design and direct. The Bear had received that pledge five years ago, and he had worked patiently and diligently to put all the parts in place.
Sharif had designed an intricate, bold, and frightening plan, which would unfold in several parts. The first had been the coordinated hijackings of four commercial U.S. airliners on September 11, 2001, leading to the suicidal collisions with, and destruction of, the World Trade Center towers in New York, and the coordinated crash into the Pentagon in Washington, DC. The horror, destruction, and loss of life had been nearly as great as they had hoped. Only one of the airliners had missed its target. Delays had allowed passengers to learn of the earlier terrorist acts, and several had rushed the hijackers and caused the plane to crash in Pennsylvania, before it could have been flown into one of its intended targets…the Capitol building or the White House in Washington.
Sharif knew that the U.S. would respond by seeking out Osama bin Laden, whose agents had been linked to previous attacks on U.S. property (the bombing of the World Trade Center in 1993; the bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998; and the bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen in 2000). He also knew that the U.S. would enhance commercial airline security to the point where hijackings of this magnitude would no longer be feasible. In fact, he was counting on it…because subsequent phases of his plan could then be implemented within a false aura of security. The action that was unfolding now, referred to within al-Qa’eda as “Operation Deadly Rain,” would occur when U.S. air traffic had resumed or surpassed the level obtained on September 11, 2001.
Bin Laden had insisted thatDeadly Rain be carried out independently, by a group of terrorists recruited by his most trusted lieutenant, Sudhama Ali-Sheikh. Prior to the first strikes on U.S. soil in September of 2001, bin Laden had cut Ali-Sheikh loose. They were to maintain communications, but neither bin Laden nor any of his confederates were to know where Ali-Sheikh was quartered, or whenDeadly Rain would occur. Bin Laden might be captured, but he would not be able to reveal anything aboutDeadly Rain . Sharif and Ali-Sheikh would carry outDeadly Rain independently…and the al-Qa’eda would reap Sharif’s financial rewards.
The execution ofDeadly Rain was now scheduled for a little over a month in the future, on November 24, the day before Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. The tragic loss of a few thousand innocent souls on September 11, 2001 would pale by comparison to the horrific human trauma that the United States would experience duringDeadly Rain .
For many years the Bear had known that hisDeadly Rain would fall on the United States on the Thanksgiving holiday. It was a unique holiday, occurring when every other country in the world was pursuing a normal workday. Moreover, the eve of the holiday was one of the busiest travel days of the year in the U.S., and the Bear had decided that he would turn this activity into the greatest American tragedy.
Only one person, other than the Bear and Ali-Sheikh, had known that the terrorist action would occur during the American holiday season. That person had been a CIA operative who had infiltrated the terrorist group that had been organized by Ali-Sheikh secretly within Pakistan. The traitor had been discovered and eliminated before he could learn any details of the plan or compromise the Pakistan-based group that had been entrusted withDeadly Rain .
Many events had come together to make the terrorist plan forDeadly Rain feasible. The demise of the Soviet Union over the past 10 or 15 years had been the largest single factor. Because of the decay of the Russian military machine, it had been possible to obtain weapons grade nuclear materials, at least in small quantities, from disgruntled, underpaid, and poorly supervised military personnel entrusted with safeguarding their vast stockpile. Al-Qa’eda, and other terrorist groups had gradually established a pipeline which allowed them to build up enough nuclear material to at least barter with other military groups, particularly Iraqi, for conventional and chemical weapons.
Most recently, Ali-Sheikh, with the aid of Sharif’s wealth, was able to obtain a complete nuclear warhead. It was not a large device (500 kilotons), but big enough to do enormous damage if critically placed. The most important feature, for the Bear’s plan, was that this device was designed to convert most of its thermonuclear energy into the generation of a huge electromagnetic pulse (EMP) of radiant energy. These huge energy pulses had the capability of instantly disabling solid state electronic circuitry anywhere in its path. This didn’t sound like a formidable threat, but it was one that every technologically developed country in the world feared. Computers, microprocessors, communications equipment, radar, aircraft, spacecraft, and satellites were vulnerable. A nation’s defense system could be incapacitated with a flurry of missiles carrying these warheads, to be followed by missiles which could unleash high yield thermonuclear explosions against a defenseless country. At least, this was one scenario that the Soviets and Americans had worked out when these devices were developed.
But the Bear had a different plan. He had a single warhead, and he needed to use it in the most effective possible way. From a terrorist point of view, he had to come up with a scenario that would cause the greatest amount of human suffering and trauma, but not necessarily have any military impact.
Clearly, it would not be worthwhile to try and smuggle the warhead into the United States. Not only would it be extremely difficult to accomplish, but also the impact of the warhead would be very limited if exploded on the ground. Only if it were delivered by a ballistic missile would the warhead do significant damage.
Again, the decaying Russian military had provided the solution. The Bear knew exactly how he wanted to deliver the warhead. And he sought out, through intermediaries in Ali-Sheikh’s organization, a Russian nuclear submarine captain whom they thought they could buy. They carefully screened out several candidates, finally deciding on Captain Yuri Kirschnikov, of the nuclear submarine,Skibirsk . One of the requirements, met by the Captain, was that he had no family. He was unmarried, and his parents were deceased. He had no brothers or sisters.
Captain Kirschnikov was very coy, but clearly interested in any offer that might relieve his desperate financial situation. His monthly salary of ten thousand rubles…equivalent to a few hundred U.S. dollars…was wholly inadequate in the new capitalist Russian environment. Besides, he and his crew had not been paid for many months. Nevertheless, when the Captain heard the proposition to substitute the terrorist’s warhead for a dummy warhead on the submarine…and to launch the EMP missile from the mid-Atlantic on a trajectory targeting a site in a remote, desolate Canadian province…he practically laughed the emissary out of the room. He saw no way that this could be done without detection and retaliation.
Moreover, there were safety factors built in to their normal launch procedures, preventing the unilateral decision by the Captain or anyone on board to initiate a launch. Finally, even if it could be done, his superiors would know about it, and they would probably order a strike on his own rogue submarine.
But the Captain had underestimated the shrewdness of the Bear’s plan. It called for the substitution of the EMP warhead to be carried out while the submarine was at port. Already, they had arranged the bribes for the guards, and had trained a crew of Ali-Sheikh’s terrorists to carry out the exchange. The Captain would be the only one aware of the missile’s real warhead. The crew would be told that this was a training exercise, with only dummy warheads on board. The EMP missile would be pre-programmed to follow the desired trajectory. The missile’s launch site and trajectory had been selected to appear like an accidental launch. There would be British naval vessels on maneuvers at that time in the same region of the Atlantic where the Russian sub would have to launch its missile. The Americans would detect it immediately, but they would also see that the trajectory was non-threatening
, with the remote Canadian wilderness as the ostensible target. Moreover, they would not be able to determine immediately whether or not it was an accidentally fired British missile.
Even if the Americans suspected a hostile incoming missile, there would be nothing they could do. They had no anti-ballistic missile capability. And there would be great uncertainty as to its origins, so they were unlikely to retaliate. If they were bright enough to anticipate that it was really an EMP strike; they could do nothing to protect themselves with such short notice. And, if the worst scenario unfolded, the Americans would decide that it was abona fide Russian threat, and begin to retaliate in some way. The Bear could live with that. It could only bring more misery and pain ultimately to the Americans, as the Russians would have to strike back. Because most of his assets would have been transferred to Swiss banks by that time, he could not care less if the United States were wiped off the face of the earth.
When the EMP missile exploded at the peak of its trajectory, 50 miles above western Pennsylvania, its intense burst of radiant energy would knock out the electronics within a circle with a 600-mile radius. He knew that would cause untold damage on the ground. But, it would be nothing so terrible as what would befall many hundreds of sophisticated wide-body passenger aircraft in the air, packed with holiday travelers, circling each of several major northeastern airports, from Boston to New York to Washington, to as far west as Chicago. These magnificent modern aircraft were almost totally dependent on computerized controls, which would suddenly be completely useless. On this Thanksgiving eve, expected to be the busiest travel period ever, there would be well over a hundred thousand airline passengers suddenly finding themselves trapped in titanium cages hurtling out of control towards horrible explosive collisions with the earth. It was impossible to estimate what collateral loss of life would occur on the ground, but the Bear could only imagine the enormity of this delicious catastrophe. The events of September 11, 2001, had provided only a small glimpse of the horror that would be delivered by this next crushing blow to the U.S. Finally, he would have his revenge. Finally, the festering hatred of the past half-century of his life would be released in one glorious, terrifying strike. He could not wait.
The Bear knew he could not share this complete vision with the Russian submarine captain. But, he only needed to convince the Captain that the feat was possible, that he would be generously rewarded, and that there was a high probability that he could get away without capture.
The Bear knew the plan was feasible, and was sure the Captain could be convinced. To accomplish the latter two goals, the Bear had put up 4 million dollars for the captain and 4 million more for the naval crew, which would be responsible for removing him as quickly as possible from the launch area. Ultimately he would be deposited in a remote Argentinean port, where he would be provided a new identity with plastic surgery, and the means to set up residence in Buenos Aires.
For the rescue crew to be successful, the Captain had to be sure that no one knew the whereabouts of his submarine. Not the Russians, the Americans, or the British. The rescue naval vessel would be of Greek registry, ostensibly a private luxury craft, a yacht large enough to accommodate a small helicopter.
For the missile launch, the captain would have to surface briefly, with a skeleton crew topside. With a small pre-arranged communication device the Captain would first contact the Bear and, then, the helicopter from the rescue vessel, skimming along the ocean surface below radar detection, and still beyond visual detection by the crew. After ordering the missile launch, the crew would be sent below for a dive, and the Captain would arrange to be the last man down. Closing the hatch after his men, he would then be picked up in a crate lowered from the helicopter, and whisked off to the rescue craft many miles away.
The rescue aspect of the mission had only a 70–80% probability for success. The timing had to be perfect, and the helicopter had to completely avoid radar detection. In addition, the Greek naval vessel had to escape suspicion. The Bear figured that only the Russians might be looking for the Captain. And, they would have their hands full at that moment, explaining to the Americans what had happened. Finding the missing Captain, if they even knew he was missing at that time, would be a low priority. The only credible threat to the Captain, therefore, was his own craft and crew. They would quickly realize he had abandoned them, and would quickly take some action. However, they would probably have to obtain orders from their central command post before taking pursuit. In the midst of an international crisis, that order would probably not be forthcoming.
Only satellite surveillance might foil the Captain’s escape attempt. In principle, the helicopter and Greek rescue ship could be seen, and the rescue attempt recorded. The probability of this occurring was remote. The spy satellites were not usually focused on activities in the mid-Atlantic. Re-programming them after the launch was detected would take some time. Hopefully, the Captain would be able to escape before the surveillance could be effective.
These risks were carefully discussed with the Captain. He could only be effective if he knew exactly where he stood, and then decided the potential financial reward was worth the risk. Once he made that decision, the plan would work. The Captain and the Greek vessel might not get away with the rescue. But, that was a risk they would take. The Bear did not care one way or the other. He only cared that they clearly knew the risks in advance, and were committed to carry out the plan. Once the launch occurred, nothing else mattered to him.
Ahmed Sharif was known only as “the Bear” to Max, and to all of the terrorist contacts he had made in the past 5 years. Only bin Laden, Ali-Sheikh, and bin Laden’s trusted contact in Zurich had known the Bear’s true identity. Bin Laden had assured the Bear that he could trust these men with his life…as he did. The Bear reluctantly accepted this assurance as a condition of his association with al-Qa’eda; but he was uneasy.
The Bear never met with Max in person. All of his contacts and contracts for this terrorist action were conducted through Ali-Sheikh, and then arranged through trusted intermediaries. No single intermediary knew of the whole plan. And none of them knew anything about the Bear. The initial contact with Max had been through the Internet, but subsequent communications had been conducted through an intermediary provided by Ali-Sheikh. The Bear communicated with Ali-Sheikh directly by a special cell phone provided by the terrorist, which had encryption capabilities far beyond anything commercially available. Their scrambling devices were as good or better than the CIA’s. Whether or not the cell phone linked directly to Ali-Sheikh, the Bear did not know. He only knew that the National Security Agency was extremely capable at intercepting international communications, and Ali-Sheikh would have to take exceptional measures to defeat their surveillance. He suspected that somehow Ali-Sheikh had found a way to piggyback messages on satellite-transmitted international television or radio signals, which would normally pass through surveillance without suspicion.
Once the contract with Max had been put in place, the Bear had arranged for Max to provide regular progress reports through an intermediary living in Albuquerque. The intermediary never talked directly to the Bear. He formed a line of communications directly between Max and Ali-Sheikh. Ali-Sheikh only would communicate with the Bear via the absolutely secure cell phone line.
So it was, towards the latter part of October, that the Bear found himself enjoying the contentment of knowing thatDeadly Rain was solidly in place, and would most assuredly be executed on November 24. His only lingering concern was that the StarSight project might become a reality, but that was a truly remote possibility, based on the regular progress reports obtained from Max.
Max was a fool. He really believed that the Bear wanted him to deliver the StarSight package to him. What the Bearreally wanted was knowledge regarding the status of StarSight. As long as the system was not operational, he knew his terrorist action would stand little chance of detection and interception. And Max had been diligently recording the painfully slow progress of thi
s project. If Max suspected that the Bear was not interested in acquiring StarSight, the Bear was convinced that Max would sell out to the Israeli’s or some other bidder. If by some miracle the project achieved success before the planned terrorist action in November, the Bear was prepared to destroy StarSight. But that was a last resort. He didn’t want to reveal that a terrorist group was aware of the StarSight system. On the other hand, he would consider indirect sabotage, if it could not be linked to any terrorist action.
It was in this frame of mind that Ahmed Sharif received the news from Ali-Sheikh that Max was requesting contact with the Bear. He had quickly approved of the contact through the intermediary, and eagerly awaited further news from Ali-Sheikh. When it came, he was not at all pleased.
Max had informed the Bear, through the intermediary, that the Senator had abruptly accelerated the work on the StarSight project. He provided all the details of which he was aware, including the expansion of the group of scientists, and the gathering of the group in Livermore next week for a concerted effort to complete the project as soon as possible.
The Bear was furious. It was clear that the CIA operative had gotten a message through regarding the imminent terrorist event. He was sure that they did not know precisely when it would occur, and had no idea of the nature of the attack. But, he was critically concerned that the StarSight project might develop rapidly the capability of anticipating at least when the event might occur.
