by S. P. Perone
“No, Senator, I’m saying that it never works the first time. And the reason is that the cluster analysis program doesn’t know what kind of cluster you’re looking for. The program first finds the dominant clusters, most highly correlated with the data. And these clusters may represent something entirely different than what you’re looking for.”
“For example,” Shane continued, “what we might see as an output from the cluster analysis program is four clusters representing spring, summer, autumn, and fall. That wouldn’t be very useful, but would at least tell us we were on the right track.”
“Well, where would you go from there?” the Senator asked.
“Actually, the next steps get a little technical. But, let me try to explain,” Shane continued. “If you did see those four clusters, the next step would be to decrease the threshold for cluster identification so that you would observe clusterswithin the four clusters. Hopefully, that would begin to develop clusters predicting specific weather events.”
“And, what if that doesn’t work?” the Senator persisted.
“It usually doesn’t,” Shane replied. “And that’s when you have to begin selecting different sub-sets of the input data, and/or different weightings of the input data, until you find a combination that provides clusters that you can use.”
“So, it sounds like a lot of ‘trial-and-error’,” the Senator commented. “Does it just become a matter of time before you find the right combination of inputs?”
“That would be true if you had infinitely fast computers with infinite amounts of data storage…because the numbers of possible combinations of input data that you could use are truly astronomical. Even the White supercomputer is not capable of going through all of the combinations in our lifetimes.”
Shane watched, as the Senator appeared stunned by this revelation. He knew what the Senator was thinking. It was as clear as the blanched expression on his face.
“What we must be able to do, Senator,” Shane said calmly, “is to use our scientific intuition to short-circuit the data selection process. That is what Barry and Sharon are very good at. And my postdoctoral associate, Sarah Stenstrom, is also one of the best I’ve ever seen. I am truly optimistic that they can deal successfully with this part of the problem.”
“The other part of the problem isinterpretation of what the observed clusters mean, especially if they don’t correspond to any of our pre-conceived notions of the events we’re trying to predict. For example, what if the clusters we observe from the human activity and satellite surveillance data actually represent stock market trends, but not the kinds of ‘events’ we’re trying to predict. We might never know that we had invented a way to predict the stock market unless we looked specifically for that kind of event.
“Do you know how many possible human-initiated events could occur on a global scale? They are countless. And, that’s why we need the intellect of every one of our team to examine the clustering results we obtain, and bring distinctly different perspectives to the interpretation. Hopefully, we will be successful in selecting the most relevant input data, and then do a bang-up job of interpreting the results, so that we can modify the input data selection, and so on…”
“But, Tony,” Sharon interrupted this time, “why shouldn’t we just use asupervised pattern recognition method? Now that we will have access to the satellite data and the government’s documentation on the kinds of events we’re interested in, wouldn’t we have a better chance of success?”
“Wait a minute,” the Senator interjected. “What’s this ‘supervised pattern recognition’ method? Is Sharon on to something here?”
This time, Barry Nagle stepped up. “What Sharon’s suggesting is a technique that contrasts with the cluster analysis methods we’ve been using.Supervised pattern recognition implies you already know what you should predict for each item in your database. Using Tony’s weather example, if you already know what dramatic weather events have occurred over the past ten years, and you’ve collected preceding meteorological data, you can use these data to ‘train’ your program to make the right predictions. Then, once you set all the thresholds and weights in your pattern recognition program to accurately recognize your ‘training set’, you can then apply this program to a new set of data…today’s meteorological data, for example…and thenpredict what weather events will occur tomorrow.”
“That’s right, Senator,” Tony picked up from Barry, “it’s actually a more straightforward approach. And, you’re probably wondering why we haven’t been exploring it.”
“Yes, I am wondering,” the Senator said forcefully. “We’re on a short fuse, here, and we don’t have time for your academic game-playing!” The Senator was obviously agitated, and Sharon was looking sheepishly at Tony, regretting she had brought up the topic in front of the Senator.
Tony, sensing the Senator’s agitation and Sharon’s embarrassment, chose his words carefully in responding. “Senator, wehave been aware of the urgency of our project…since the September 11 attacks. But, it was just a few days ago, when we learned we had only a few weeks to get operational. We had been using the methods that would give us the most information. We previously considered and rejected “supervised” techniques, because we didn’t want to limit ourselves to pre-conceived notions of what information might be in the data. Now, it appears Sharon’s question is very appropriate. But, frankly, we won’t know the answer until we’ve been working with the full database for a while.”
The Senator remained quiet for a while, taking a sip of his coffee. None of the group spoke. Finally, the Senator said, “I’m sorry, Tony. I shouldn’t have jumped on you. But, many of my colleagues have been critical of our using academic researchers on this project. If there’s any hint that your team is still operating in an academic fantasy world, this project will be taken away from you faster than you can blink.”
“Now, I don’t want that to happen,” the Senator continued. “I would get a little egg on my face…but that won’t hurt me. You guys, however…you guys could really be hurt regarding future funding with DOE.”
“My gravest concern,” the Senator continued, “is what might happen if this project fails.” Pausing for several seconds to let the gravity of his statement settle on the group, the Senator continued, “If you fail, after giving it your best shot, you won’t be very happy…but no one will fault you. If you fail because you can not disengage from your academic mind-set, you will not be able to live with yourselves…and eventually we’ll all know why you failed.”
A somber silence settled over the group. There wasn’t much left to be said. The Senator, in his own familiar hard-nosed style, had laid it all on the table. Not only would this StarSight team have to bring a speculative project to a successful conclusion on a one-month timetable…rather than the projected two-or three-year timetable…but they would also have to throw out the window all of their natural academic instincts. They would have to go withwhat works , suspending their professional judgment, which might urge them to inquire “why” or “how”. They simply didn’t have the time. The mysterious and ominous terrorist threat was hurtling down on them, perhaps within four weeks. They had no time to lose.
Signaling to his colleagues by standing up, Tony led the way as they all rose to take their leave. “Senator,” he said, “I’m sure I speak for each of us in thanking you for clarifying where we stand. You’ve done a great job of setting things up for us to work effectively at Livermore Lab, and getting our postdocs cleared to help us out. The rest is up to us.”
Reaching over to grab the Senator’s hand, Shane completed his comments. “We don’t plan to let you…or ourselves…down, Senator.”
Each of the professors, in turn, as they left the suite, shook the Senator’s hand, and thanked him for the late-night meeting.
Max had listened intently to the fascinating give-and-take at the late-night gathering with the Senator. He was impressed that each of them had avoided mentioning any classified material, des
pite the sensitive nature of the conversation.
Taking stock of what he had heard, Max attempted to decipher what he had learned. He concluded that he still did not know exactly why the project had become so urgent, but now he knew the target date for completion was the end of November. He had also learned that, if these investigators continue to use the cluster analysis approach, the success of that approach was critically dependent on the expertise of the scientist interpreting the results. Max had been aware of this previously, but now he knew it would play a crucial part in his plans to deliver the StarSight system to the Bear. If the system could not work without expert oversight, did that not require that an “expert” should be delivered as a part of the StarSight package? Max knew the answer to that question, and knew what he would have to do.
After seeing off the project group, the Senator retired to the bedroom of their suite. Ellen was already in bed, sleeping quietly. He undressed and got ready for bed, sliding in next to his wife, who was clad in a long silky nightgown. He leaned over to kiss her goodnight on the cheek, and then lay back, his hands behind his head, staring up at the sculptured ceiling. Turning over in his mind the evening’s discussion, he couldn’t help returning to the central fact that the nation’s protection from a deadly, imminent terrorist attack rested in the hands of a group of scientists who were ill-prepared for this kind of pressure situation. He was concerned. He was very concerned.
Finally, before closing his eyes, he reminded himself that he had made a strong statement…hopefully jolting these academics into the real world of guarding the nation’s security. This was the world where dedicated intelligence professionals made life and death decisions every day…and where some of them sacrificed their lives. He could not micro-manage this project. But, he was pretty sure that Tony Shane had gotten his strongly worded message. Shane was not your typical academic. He was capable of taking the pragmatic route in this project; and the Senator knew that he would.
Taking several deep breaths, and feeling relaxed finally, the Senator suddenly felt the bed move slightly as Ellen turned to lie on her side facing him, and place her arm over his bare chest. He felt her breast against his side, and her knee sliding over his leg. “How are you doing, Gerry,” she whispered softly. “Did your meeting go OK?” Her gentle concern troubled him, arousing confused feelings of guilt and affection. The Senator was aware of how neglectful he had been, not only these past few days, but for well over a month. Here, they had been in the most beautiful city in the world for over 24 hours, and he had not yet spent an intimate moment with Ellen. In his current relaxed state he also became aware of a sexual arousal that he had not experienced for a long time.
Instinctively, the Senator rolled over on his side, and embraced his wife, kissing her on the cheek. “Thought you were sound asleep, honey,” he said. “The meeting went quite well I think. Thanks, for asking.”
Contrary to his typical behavior of the recent past, the Senator didn’t follow up his kiss on the cheek by turning over and going to sleep. Instead, he held her in a tight embrace, kissed her eyes, nose, mouth, and then her neck. Many weeks of suppressed passions rose quickly to the surface, and, within moments, they were groping, fondling and loving one another with a vigor they thought they had lost. But, with the sweetness that comes from familiarity and devotion.
Much later, as they lie there, spent and motionless, the Senator’s head on her bosom, Ellen reached up, and slowly, repeatedly ran her fingers through his hair. “I guess we should spend more time in San Francisco, Gerry…it seems to agree with us,” she said softly.
Chuckling, the Senator rolled over on his back. “You’re right. This is a wonderful place to visit together.” Then, pausing briefly, the Senator continued in a more serious tone, “I’m sorry, Ellen…I’m sorry for being so neglectful this past month. There’s really no excuse; and you’ve been so understanding…even though you have no idea what’s going on. I’m really grateful…I couldn’t have a better life-partner.” Then, after another pause, he said gently, “I hope you know how much I love you.”
“You don’t need to apologize, Gerry,” she said softly. “I know there are things you can’t talk to me about. I accept that. It goes with the territory. Just be sure you know that I am always here for you…whenever you need me.”
After a brief pause, she gently asked, “Is there anything you want to talk to me about…I mean, if there’s anything youcan talk about…I’m here to listen.”
“Thanks, honey…I wish I could talk to you about things that are going on…I truly wish I could…but I can’t. I can promise you, though, that I won’t let these things come between us anymore.” Then, pausing briefly, the Senator looked into his wife’s eyes, and said, “I’ve missed you too much.”
With that, Ellen snuggled up close to his side, and rested her head on his shoulder, as they allowed themselves to slowly drift off to sleep. The Senator’s last thought before losing consciousness was that he hoped for a reprise of their coupling before they left the bed in the morning…and also hoped that it might last a bit longer than their first of the evening.
Chapter 11
Wine and Roses
As the long stretch limousine, transporting the six members of the StarSight project team, neared the Lawrence Livermore Lab on Monday morning, Shane noticed that the driver had not taken the most direct route through Livermore. After passing through the center of town, the limousine had traveled out Livermore avenue, eventually passing by several vineyards…including Retzlaff, Wente, Concannon, Murietta’s Well, and several others which Shane did not recognize. This route would take them behind the Sandia National Lab, where previous meetings of the StarSight project team had been held, then down Greenville road, past East Avenue (which separated Sandia and Lawrence Livermore Labs), until the entrance to the East Badge Office would be reached.
As the limousine traversed these last few miles, Shane became fascinated with the pastoral scene of vineyards stretching over the rolling countryside…now in spectacular fall hues of yellow, orange and green…for as far as the eye could see. In vivid contrast, just over the hills to the north, were two national labs, employing thousands of the sharpest scientists and engineers on the planet; housing some of the most sophisticated scientific instruments; and maintaining at least half of the most advanced expertise in nuclear weapons in the free world. (The Los Alamos and Sandia National Labs in New Mexico contained the other half of that expertise.)
In the limousine that morning, the discussion had been mostly non-technical, as the passengers chatted within groups of two or three along the way. Seated next to Tony was Barry Nagle, and they were discussing the diverse schedules to be followed by the group. Barry had decided to spend at least three nights a week in the Livermore area with the rest of the group; he had arranged to rent a car to return to San Francisco on Thursday evening, spending Friday at the university, meeting his classes and research students on a once a week basis; he planned to spend the first weekend with his family. Tony had planned to fly back to Daniels once a week to meet classes and students, but return within about 24 hours; he would be working through the weekends in Livermore. This week, however, he would extend his trip back to include a stop in Albuquerque for an interview at CryptaGen Corp. Sharon had planned to stay in Livermore this first weekend, but would return to Boston on the following weekend. Although they still had not been briefed on the reason for the urgency of the project, Bill Campbell, Sarah Stenstrom, and Anna Ling were all committed to staying in Livermore indefinitely. After the first week or two, Shane expected each of the co-investigators would find a way to avoid leaving the Livermore project for more than a day, if at all. In support of their stay, they had been approved to obtain as many rental vehicles as necessary to support their respective schedules.
Seated on Shane’s other side was Sarah, with Sharon Carson next to her. Nervously, Shane strained unsuccessfully to eavesdrop on their conversation, observing that the two of them had become quite friendly
over the past two days. Across from him was the latest member to join the team, Anna Ling, the postdoc from Nagle’s research group. Anna was a sixth-generation Chinese-American. Although her ancestors had entered the country through San Francisco, during the gold rush days of the 19thcentury, her family now resided in Cleveland, Ohio. Both of her parents were physicians there, and she had visited San Francisco only once, before choosing to work there for Barry Nagle at Cal Poly. Her Ph.D. work, in mathematics, was at MIT. Five feet 4 inches tall, with straight jet-black hair, cropped short in a “pixie” cut, round wire-rimmed spectacles, and a youthful pretty face, she looked more like a freshman co-ed than a Ph.D. mathematician. Seated next to Bill Campbell, she was engaged in an animated discussion of things to do in the City. Shane suspected that Bill might have begun to change his mind about what California had to offer.
Reflecting on what was awaiting their arrival at Lawrence Livermore Lab, Shane knew that James Windemere would meet them at the East Badge Office. Once they each had their magnetically-encoded badges, and individual PIN’s (Personal Identification Number), they would be able to access any part of the Lab, except most of the “exclusion” areas, which required a specific “need to know.” These areas were those involving participation in the highest level of nuclear weapons design or fabrication, or any top-secret intelligence-related project. They would be allowed only in those exclusion areas related to their project.
Windemere would escort them to the facility housing the White supercomputer system, and direct them to their assigned office space. Shane expected they would quickly be provided with an orientation to the system. Sometime that morning, however, Shane needed to pull the entire team aside in a conference room in an “exclusion” area, so that he could explain to them the full nature of their project, and the reason behind the urgent timetable. He had hoped that the Senator would have provided this information, but he would not be at the Lab until Wednesday.
