There was some stirring among the attendees as Brandt paused, anticipating a series of questions. None came, everyone waiting for the president, who was looking at Director of National Intelligence Joseph Antonetti for concurrence or disagreement. The DNI, like all the others in the room, appeared dumbstruck.
Marshall didn’t know where to begin, so he simply asked, “Upon what do you base your assessment?”
“Several factors, Mr. President. But principally, information from Michael Garin.”
The room exploded with rapid-fire questions and expressions of astonishment. Brandt sat silently for several seconds until the president raised a hand, quieting the room. “Again, Jim. Explain,” the president directed.
“Mr. President, through back channels, Michael Garin has provided information to a member of my staff—information that I find credible—that an EMP attack will be launched on the US. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have particulars as to when, how, or by whom.”
“Why, then, do you find the information credible?”
“Primarily because Ari Singer was Garin’s source. But I concede, quite readily, that I’m biased. It somewhat fits my own assessment of the cooperation between the Russians and the Iranians.”
“When were you going to tell us you’ve been in touch with Garin?” Antonetti asked.
Marshall’s face grew dark. “Stow it, Joe. I’d ask you why your shop hasn’t been in touch with him. Or tracked him down. Or had any whiff of a possible EMP attack. That’s your job, isn’t it?”
The room fell utterly silent. The rebuke caused everyone but Marshall and Brandt to look down at the conference table like scolded schoolchildren.
“Who’s this Singer fellow?” Marshall asked.
“An Israeli intelligence agent, Mr. President,” Brandt replied.
Marshall looked back at the chastened Antonetti. The DNI, taking the cue that he had permission to speak, said, “He’s known to us, sir. Very reliable. If Singer told Garin the US is the target of an EMP attack, well, we should assume we’re the target of an EMP attack.”
Marshall stared vacantly at the opposite wall for a moment. Then he looked at Brandt and asked quietly, “So we don’t know who’s going to hit us or how much time we have?”
“Again, Mr. President, we don’t yet have those specifics, but based on everything that’s happened over the last few weeks, the most likely players are the Russians or Iranians. And given the nature of the threat, our operating premise must be that an attack could happen at any time.”
“Mr. President.” It was Secretary of State Ted Lawrence. “It’s simply implausible that the Russians would take such an action. We were engaged in a Cold War for nearly half a century. They wouldn’t dare strike us. Mutual assured destruction ensures that. Remember, they backed down in 1962.” The pompous secretary of state looked around. Forever concerned Brandt was being groomed for his job, he was determined not to let the upstart national security advisor upstage him. “And they’re comparatively weaker now than they were back then. They’d never risk it.”
Several heads around the table nodded in agreement. Marshall noted a skeptical look on the secretary of defense’s face. “What’s your take, Douglas?”
Douglas Merritt was Ted Lawrence’s opposite in almost every way. Whereas Lawrence was self-promoting and voluble, Merritt was self-effacing and measured.
“Mr. President, while I agree that the odds of the Russians launching a conventional nuclear strike against the US are prohibitive, what we’re talking about here isn’t at all conventional.”
Lawrence scowled. He detested Merritt. He detested being contradicted even more.
“It’s true,” Merritt continued, “that the Russians—and the Chinese, for that matter—will be deterred by the certainty of a devastating retaliatory strike. For decades both the US and the Russians have understood that a nuclear attack by one of us—one that killed millions on the other side—would prompt retaliation that would annihilate the other side. If they take out Chicago, we take out Saint Petersburg. If they take out New York City, we take out Moscow. Everyone knows this. We’ve gamed the scenarios a million times over. Each of us has standing retaliation protocols.”
“Your point, Douglas.”
The secretary of defense straightened. “Mr. President, an EMP attack wouldn’t kill anyone. At least not immediately. In fact, no one would even be injured. No cities would be incinerated, no farmlands scorched. Not a single building would be leveled. Quite frankly, Mr. President, we haven’t established an agreed retaliation protocol for these circumstances. Put simply, we haven’t been able to justify nuking Moscow and wiping out millions because something went boom and startled pigeons somewhere miles above Manhattan. I don’t mean to be flippant, sir. Those are just the facts.”
Marshall had an incredulous look on his face. “Do you mean to tell me that in the fifty-odd years we’ve been aware of the possibility of an EMP, we’ve never developed a damn response doctrine?”
“That’s correct, Mr. President,” Merritt said. “At least nothing formal or concrete. The idea, as I understand it, was that we needed to be flexible in our approach, not formulaic. Since an EMP itself wouldn’t kill anyone, a full-scale nuclear response would be wildly asymmetrical—escalating matters out of control. It would undoubtedly provoke a massive nuclear counterstrike.”
“There are also practical concerns, Mr. President,” Chief of Staff Cho piped up. “If the US were to inflict millions of casualties on a country just because that country caused our lights to go out, we’d be a pariah state. We’d be ostracized from the ranks of civilized nations. The world would unite against us. Treaties abrogated, boycotts, embargoes, sanctions.
“Not to mention the political upheaval domestically,” Cho continued. “A large segment of the American population thinks we shouldn’t have any nukes to begin with. They would go nothing short of berserk if we actually used one.”
“But the Russians don’t know our protocols, or lack thereof, to something that goes boom over Manhattan,” Marshall said. “They can’t be sure we won’t launch a full-scale military response. So how can they risk it?”
Antonetti spoke up. “On the contrary, Mr. President, they have a pretty good idea how we would or would not respond. We’d like to think they don’t, but just like us, they’ve run countless computer models on every conceivable military scenario. They’ve run psych ops scenarios. Plus, let’s face it, despite our best efforts, they’ve no doubt gotten regular intel on our protocols. After all, we’ve got theirs.”
Brandt cleared his throat and all eyes turned to him. “Mr. President, everything that’s been said is well considered. And even though I strongly disagree with Ted’s assertion that MAD would deter the Russians from launching an EMP, I don’t mean to diminish the consequences of such an attack.”
Lawrence scowled again. Too bad if that insufferable egghead couldn’t see it. At least everyone else in the room would see the secretary of state’s displeasure at being upstaged by this prissy academic.
But no one was looking at the secretary of state. Everyone was focused on Brandt.
“As Doug Merritt has stated, an EMP wouldn’t kill anyone or level any buildings. Not right away.” Brandt leaned forward slightly, giving greater emphasis to what he was about to say. “But I want to be clear that the cascade effect of the EMP would be cataclysmic, perhaps one of the greatest disasters to befall any nation in history.”
“With all due respect,” Lawrence interrupted, “that’s overstating the matter quite a bit. In fact, we’ve had at least two commissions studying the issue. As a result, we’ve hardened a number of assets against an EMP strike.”
Marshall’s patience was becoming strained. “Gentlemen, you’re talking in circles. And frankly, Ted, you sound like you’re trying to cover all sides on the issue, as usual. I need facts. And I need them fast. If there’s going to be an EMP attack, an
d we’re in the dark—no pun intended—about when, then we’ve got to move quickly with the best available information. I need to determine a course of action before we leave this room.” Marshall turned to Brandt. “Jim, how do you respond to Lawrence’s assertion that you’re overstating the case?”
“Mr. President, I wish I were overstating the case, but far from it. Yes, just before 9/11, Congress established the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack. Members of the commission testified before the House Armed Services Committee in 2002 about our complete vulnerability to an EMP attack. The commission recommended specific steps to harden US infrastructure against such an attack. Virtually nothing, however, was done. Congress reestablished the commission in 2006. It issued a report in 2008 warning of the dire consequences of an EMP attack and recommended robust hardening of critical infrastructure against such an attack. Bills were introduced in Congress to deal with the threat in 2009, again in 2010, and twice, I believe, in 2011. They went nowhere. In fact, the Critical Infrastructure Protection Act, introduced in the House in 2014, stalled immediately. Since then, the focus has been on preventing cyberattacks. But we haven’t done much there, either.”
Marshall’s face had a look of disbelief. “So you’re telling me we’re completely vulnerable to an EMP?”
“Not completely, Mr. President,” Merritt interjected. “We’ve hardened much of our strategic defense infrastructure against an EMP attack—such as our nuclear deterrent capabilities. We would still possess a substantial nuclear retaliatory capability in the case of an EMP attack.” Merritt turned to Brandt. “But I largely agree with Jim. In almost every other way, we’re vulnerable to an EMP attack, and the consequences would be devastating. Far more than a massive cyberattack. We learned that after the Starfish Prime high-altitude nuclear test during the Kennedy administration. A one-and-a-half-megaton thermonuclear warhead detonated more than two hundred miles above the Pacific Ocean produced an electromagnetic pulse that knocked out power in Hawaii nearly a thousand miles away.”
“A high-altitude—say, a hundred- to a hundred-fifty-mile—nuclear burst,” Brandt resumed, “above the center of the US would send a high-intensity electromagnetic shock wave through the atmosphere, frying all electronics and communications over most of the continental United States. Telephones, radios, televisions, computers, power lines. Anything and everything that uses electricity would be rendered useless in an instant. Power plants, factories, generators, practically all transportation would grind to a halt—including air transportation, most automobiles, rail. Most emergency backup generators would be fried also. We wouldn’t even have the power to manufacture the circuits, fuses, and replacement parts to get those things moving again.
“Banking, oil and gas production, would be compromised. Because we couldn’t irrigate and harvest crops, much of the nation’s food supply would rot in the fields. Even if we could harvest some by hand, we’d have no means to transport it or refrigerate it. Food shortages would occur within weeks, if not days. Water-treatment and sewage-treatment plants would be inoperable. Disease would become rampant. Hospitals couldn’t function effectively. Many, if not most, businesses couldn’t operate. The economy would utterly collapse. And the worst hasn’t even begun. Imagine what conditions will be like six months from now—in the dead of winter, temperatures below freezing. Most will still be without heat, without power.”
Marshall shut his eyes tightly, trying not to erupt in anger. When he spoke, his tone was forceful but measured. “So, essentially, except for our nuclear capability and some of our military and intelligence apparatus, we’ll be thrown back into the early 1800s.”
“Unfortunately, it’s worse than that, Mr. President,” Brandt replied. “Much worse. Because back then, society was built and organized to function without electricity—without cars, phones, computers, planes. An agrarian society. A person’s job, food sources—most of the staples he needed to live—were within walking distance of where he lived. Seventy percent of the population never traveled in their entire lives outside of a twenty-mile radius of where they were born.
“In contrast, today’s society is based on mobility and information. The milk in your cereal this morning likely came from a dairy farm in Wisconsin seven hundred miles away, the fruit from an orchard in California three thousand miles away. We’re not built to function without electricity. Where do we find clean water, food? Conservative estimates put the death toll from disease and starvation in the first year after the strike at nearly twenty percent of the entire population. And there’s no way to predict the number of casualties from the inevitable civil unrest.”
The president turned his head slightly. “But, Jim, by that logic—even though we’ve never announced we’d retaliate in a major way, the Russians know that the consequences of an EMP are so catastrophic that we’d be compelled to respond. Accordingly, they wouldn’t launch the attack. So, Ted’s right—MAD still governs.”
Lawrence, sensing that this argument was prevailing in the president’s mind, remained determined to drive the point home. “Plus, Mr. President, the Russian economy would certainly take a major hit, and that’s not something they can afford.”
Marshall could barely refrain from rolling his eyes at the secretary of state’s transparent attempt to appear relevant. “What about that, Jim?”
Brandt’s response surprised Marshall and, once again, angered the secretary of state. “Actually, Mr. President, I don’t consider the economic ramifications as a primary deterrent to the Russians. Sure, there would be some short-term dislocations to their economy. But some would argue that after an initial roiling of the markets, the Russians could capitalize on our economic paralysis, fill the breach—so to speak—in several segments of the world economy affected by the turmoil in the US. No, I don’t think the effect on our economy is a sufficient deterrent to a Russian EMP.”
“Damn it, Jim,” Marshall said, exasperated. “Now you’re arguing against yourself. First you say an EMP is cataclysmic. But not cataclysmic enough to make the Russians think twice about hitting us. This isn’t some graduate seminar—trying out theories on your doctoral candidates. This is real. I need guidance, not vacillation.”
The secretary of state lowered his head to conceal a whisper of a smile. A rebuke to the great Brandt, apparently trapped in an inconsistency.
“Mr. President,” Brandt responded, “I just think—”
Marshall interrupted. “Based on everything you said, I can’t believe the Russians would take the chance of hitting us with an EMP. It’s much more likely that this Ari Singer is wrong, or was misunderstood by Garin.”
“But, Mr. President,” Brandt said, but he was waved off by Marshall.
“Let me finish, Jim. In my experience the simplest explanation is usually the right one. It seems to me that an EMP strike is, in fact, going to happen. But it’s not going to be a Russian EMP strike on the US. Instead, it’s going to be an Iranian EMP strike, maybe with Russian help, against Israel.”
Marshall scanned the room for concurrence. The secretary of state leapt.
“My point exactly, Mr. President. Let’s not forget the obvious, what’s been going on in front of our noses the last few weeks: the UN resolution, the troop buildups by Iran’s client, Syria, the rocket attacks by Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, the border skirmishes—all provocations designed to draw Israel into a war that Iran intends to finish off with an EMP strike on Israel.” Lawrence paused, assumed a pedantic posture, and continued. “The EMP would render Israel completely defenseless against an attack by its enemies. And the resulting turbulence in the Middle East oil markets works to Russia’s benefit.”
The secretary of state sat back in his chair, pleased with himself, as everyone in the room, even Douglas Merritt, albeit somewhat tentatively, nodded in agreement. Everyone but Brandt. The logic of Lawrence’s argument, however self-serving, sounded almost i
mpeccable. It was even consistent with Brandt’s own argument for why the Russians wouldn’t hit the United States. But the national security advisor couldn’t bring himself to believe that men as serious as Singer and Garin, men for whom small mistakes in judgment could mean immediate death for themselves or their comrades, would make a mistake concerning the target of an EMP.
“Ted,” Marshall said, “we don’t know how much time we have. You need to make principal-to-principal contact with your counterparts in Israel and Iran, ASAP. Give Israel a heads-up, in case Singer hasn’t already done so. And tell Iran we’re onto their plan and remind them in no uncertain terms of the consequences. They know this administration’s position concerning an attack on Israel, and”—Marshall looked at SecDef Merritt—“your people should make contact with IDF.”
“Mr. President,” Brandt said more loudly than was common for him, capturing everyone’s attention, including a startled Marshall. “Pardon the interruption, sir. I appreciate the urgency, but given the magnitude of what we’re dealing with here, perhaps it would be helpful to take an hour to run this premise through our respective departments and agencies before we contact any foreign governments? See if we can get more corroborative intelligence before making any statements or taking any action?”
Brandt needed to slow this process down, buy some time so that he might get more information from Garin that would support the intel on an EMP attack on the United States. Perhaps more important, the president needed more intel before he embarked on an irreversible and possibly flawed course of action.
“Jim,” Marshall replied, “you’re the one who raised the issue of an EMP attack, possibly an imminent one, and the DNI here says your source Singer is practically unimpeachable.”
Good, thought Lawrence, the rookie’s reputation was imploding. The unmaking of the Oracle was occurring before his eyes.
“Mr. President, Iran is only nine hundred ninety miles from Tel Aviv. Even if we left this room right now, a missile could travel to Israel before—well, to be blunt, it’ll hit no matter what we do at this moment.” Brandt’s ice-blue eyes were cast directly at the commander in chief. “Under the circumstances, accuracy may be more important than speed.”
Target Omega Page 31
