END GAMES
During the buildup of hype for Y2K, the digital Armageddon that was supposed to happen on New Year's Day, 2000, I remember chucking an extra jar of peanut butter and a few more cans of green beans than usual into my shopping cart at the grocery store—just in case. I think I may have felt a momentary twinge of that weird rush of excitement the apocalyptic faithful must feel when she stores up freeze-dried food and ammunition in preparation for her supernatural doomsday. Finally, I thought to myself, a rational, thinking skeptic can enjoy a small taste of apocalyptic paranoia. I have to confess, it was fun to imagine not having to go to work on Monday or wash my car anymore. It was perversely exhilarating to imagine a world without rules, fishing for dinner, growing vegetables, plenty of time to read, setting up a solar-powered DVD player, coming up with creative ways to defend my fortress from looters and zombies. Perhaps this is what is behind all the end-of-the-world and human-extinction buzz. Maybe it is nothing more than the fantasy of freedom from daily drudgery and a chance to escape from responsibility that draws us toward belief in a magical finish. In fundamentalist churches one does not have to sit in a pew for long before hearing about the End Times. According to a Baylor study, approximately one-fifth of all Americans have read at least one book in the Left Behind series of novels about the Rapture.7 Many millions of people worldwide view most natural disasters as signs of Judgment Day's approach. It's assumed that all of this interest is fueled by religion, but maybe it has as much or more to do with Mad Max fantasies as belief in destructive gods. It's possible. After all, one does not even need religion to be seduced by the apocalypse.
GEEK RAPTURE
Not to be left out, secular nerds finally have their own Rapture. It's called the Technological Singularity and—you guessed it—it will be here very soon! Lead prophet Ray Kurzweil claims the Singularity will arrive around the year 2040. The prediction is that exponential growth will endow computers with godlike powers, and then machines will saturate the universe at a rate that will be incomprehensibly fast. We will merge with the machines and become gods too. It sounds crazy, of course, but there are intriguing data, projections, and logical arguments that are difficult to dismiss.8 I admit to being partially seduced by the Singularity. I find it irresistible to imagine being swept up in my old age by a digital miracle that will give me immortality and infinite opportunities for fun and discovery, while simultaneously seeing the elimination of poverty, disease, and war from the planet. But, of course, there's always a catch. The Singularity's heaven scenario is shadowed ominously by a hell scenario that envisions terrorism, global war, mass slavery, and even the extermination of humankind. I don't know about you, but I prefer the heaven scenario.
No matter where my Singularity fantasies may lead, my mind always ends up back in the real world. Hoping may be fun, but it's not the same as knowing, not even close. Sure, I hope the Singularity arrives just in time before I die. I hope that one day I can download every book in the world into my enhanced brain and move into a nice new robot body so that I can trek across the Arctic and break ten seconds for the 100 meters. In the meantime, however, I'll keep working from the assumption that my existence is finite and precious so I had better make the best of every day. Maybe that's the most practical outlook for all of us.
GO DEEPER…
Binford, Gregory, and Elsabeth Malartre. Beyond Human: Living with Robots and Cyborgs. New York: Forge Books, 2008.
Bostrom, Nick, and Milan M. Cirkvoic, eds. Global Catastrophic Risks. New York: Oxford University Press, 2008.
Brockman, John, ed. The Next Fifty Years: Science in the First Half of the Twenty-first Century. New York: Vintage Books, 2002.
Brockman, John. Science at the Edge: Conversations with the Leading Scientific Thinkers of Today. New York: Union Square Press, 2008.
Diamond, Jared. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. New York: Penguin, 2011.
Ehrman, Bart D. Jesus: Apocalyptic Prophet of the New Millennium. New York: Oxford University Press, 2001.
Guyatt, Nicholas. Have a Nice Doomsday: Why Millions of Americans Are Looking Forward to the End of the World. United Kingdom: Ebury Press, 2007.
Halpern, Paul. Countdown to the Apocalypse: A Scientific Exploration of the End of the World. New York: Basic Books, 2000.
Impey, Chris. How It Ends: From You to the Universe. New York: W. W. Norton, 2011.
Kurzweil, Ray. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. New York: Penguin, 2006.
Lewis, James R. Doomsday Prophecies: A Complete Guide to the End of the World. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books, 2000.
Taylor, Justin. The Apocalypse Reader (fiction). Philadelphia, PA: Running Press, 2007.
Ward, Peter D., and Donald Brownlee. The Life and Death of Planet Earth. New York: Henry Holt, 2004.
I don't think the human race will survive the next one thousand years.
—Stephen Hawking
Why does human extinction fascinate us? Probably because we are humans and we will be the ones who go away, of course. As we will see in this chapter, however, our final exit is unlikely in the short term. There are no guarantees, of course; it could happen tomorrow. But talk of our ultimate end seems like it is everywhere these days and I believe it misleads many people about how vulnerable we really are. Humans are smart, numerous, and spread around much of the world. We won't be easy to eliminate. The avalanche of apocalyptic books, comics, movies, songs, and magazine articles in recent years suggests that we have become downright obsessive about the subject. Interestingly, these warnings and scary scenarios are not all coming from the same place. These days, one is as likely to encounter the idea of global destruction and the end of civilization in a respectable science publication as in a blockbuster film or comic book. There obviously is just something about the end of humanity that has grabbed us and won't let go. Such thoughts are not new, of course. They have been with us for a very long time. But once they were based on supernatural concepts of gods and magic and were the exclusive centerpiece of religions. These days, however, the grisly possibility of human extinction is just as likely to be brought up by a scientist as by a preacher. So, if the wrath of angry gods or the fulfillment of some sacred plan of global destruction doesn't appeal or seem rational enough, then one can always opt for the secular asteroid strike, gamma ray burst, or killer virus. Yes, no doubt about it, these are the golden days of doomsday dreamers, as there is bound to be at least one disaster scenario to suit anyone's taste. I contend, however, that none of the popular threats, whether religious or evidence based, will do us in any time soon.
WE'RE (PROBABLY) NOT GOING ANYWHERE
Before exploring reasons why it is very unlikely that humans will become extinct any time soon, let's be clear about what extinction really means. The words extinction and end of the world are often used inaccurately and far too casually in popular culture. I suspect many people do not have a clear understanding about what extinction actually means. For example, a nuclear war of unprecedented savagery that leaves two-thirds of the population dead wouldn't qualify as a human extinction event. Not even a global disaster that completely destroys civilization and reduces us to a few random clans of scavengers would do it. Even a lethal virus that wipes out 99 percent of humanity wouldn't be enough because a 99 percent kill rate still leaves tens of millions of people. Extinction, keep in mind, means everyone. To bring about ours, an event would have to be so thoroughly catastrophic that it killed everyone outright or so altered the environment that every single person would succumb eventually.
Most religious doomsday scenarios don't even qualify because a supposed extinction event fails if some people are holding a supernatural escape ticket. This eliminates virtually every religious take on human extinction. No matter what they may say, most people who believe in a religion-based end-of-the-world event do not see it as an extinction event. Their scenarios almost always include safe passage for people who are favored within their particular belief system
. If people existed in a heaven or a hell after doomsday and could still be considered people, then the human species wouldn't be extinct. So this class of doomsday scenarios does not belong in an analysis of possible human extinction. Nobody gets saved, Raptured, reincarnated, sent somewhere else. Extinction means everyone and forever.
While I think that extinction is very unlikely in the near future, I do not believe that Homo sapiens will last forever. No matter how smart and lucky we may turn out to be, it's virtually impossible that we can hold on indefinitely because, sooner or later, every species either dies out or evolves into something else. Even if we survive, hundreds of thousands if not millions of years from now, our descendants will be so physically and genetically different that they would have to be considered a different species. Either way, “we” won't be around.
EXPIRATION DATE
This chapter is concerned only with the popular belief that humans are likely to become extinct within a century or so. Given enough time, predictions of our extinction will almost certainly be proven correct one way or another eventually. The glaring example provided by our planet's natural history is that extinction is the norm. Every species checks out sooner or later, at least that's what the evolutionary history of this planet shows. Approximately 99 percent of all species that have ever existed are now gone. Based on what we know today, it is clear that extinction for us is far more likely than eternal survival is. Even if we manage to avoid the many dangers we face here on Earth, the Sun will die four billion years or so from now. And even if we survive the death spasms of our star by colonizing other worlds, constructing habitats in space, or somehow controlling the Sun and extending its duration, we still would have to confront the eventual “end” of life in an expanding universe. Trillions of years from now it will grow too cold and dark for life. But even then there might be a chance. In 2011, astronomers went public with the intriguing idea that dark matter might warm planets and make them hospitable to life.1 Then there is the possibility that our descendants will have become so smart that we would be able to figure out how to slip into another universe or dimension. Or maybe we could even time travel a few billion years in reverse to place us back in a more agreeable universe. But this chapter is not about the deep future; it's about the popular belief or fear that human extinction will happen sooner rather than later. It's possible, yes, but how likely is it? First, let's review some of the more serious and scientifically reasonable potential disasters we face, then we will consider what our chances of surviving them are.
Asteroid Strike
What is the chance that a large asteroid or comet will hit Earth in the future? According to astronomers, the odds are pretty high. How high? Try 100 percent! I'm not sure about you, but I don't like those odds. Earth has been pounded by large objects in the past and it will be hit again. Some of the greatest mass extinctions in Earth history are believed to have been triggered by asteroid strikes, most famously the one that wiped out many dinosaur species sixty-five million years ago. If a big enough object, say one three or four miles in diameter, hit Earth, we might be finished. It's not the impact itself that does the most damage, however. It's all the dust, smoke, and debris that blocks the Sun and chokes out life. It's mind-boggling to imagine such destruction and terror. Unfortunately, this is our reality. The good news is that impacts are few and far between from our human perspective. We are also smart enough as a species to do something about it when one is heading our way in order to avoid extinction. We don't even have to play space cowboys and send Bruce Willis to intercept them with nukes. All it takes is a slight nudge far enough out and they would miss us. But we can't be complacent about it because it requires setting up a reliable warning system and having a solid plan in place that we can execute immediately when an object is spotted heading our way.
I met former Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart at a space conference in Arizona a few years ago. While he signed autographs for fans I took the opportunity to chat with the friendly space hero about his work on asteroid and comet defense. Schweickart is a cofounder of the B612 Foundation and cochaired the 2010 NASA Advisory Council Ad-Hoc Task Force on Planetary Defense. He told me that he is concerned and believes we are not doing nearly enough to identify, track, and deal with objects that will threaten us in the future. I agree. To be smashed by some random rock from space would be a tragic end after all the effort we made to move out of caves and clean ourselves up.
Nuclear War
Everybody cheered when the Cold War ended (I'm still waiting for my peace dividend check to arrive in the mail) but thousands of nuclear weapons are still ready to fly should World War III ignite. Most of them are in the arsenals of the United States and Russia. Currently tensions between the two nations are nowhere near as high as they were during the Cold War. Still, the threat is there so long as the missiles are. Most people have no idea about the true power of modern nuclear weapons. They assume they are similar to the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the close of World War II. Not even close. Today's nukes are thousands of times more powerful than those.
As destructive as these weapons are, however, humankind could and probably would survive a nuclear war. Given the fact that people are spread out so far and wide on the planet, most will no doubt be spared direct hits from missiles and bombs. Many big cities will be hit, of course, but the United States, Russia, China, or whichever nations are fighting would not waste their missiles on uninvolved cities such as Mogadishu (population more than one million) and Reykjavik (population more than one hundred thousand), for example. The real challenge for species survival would come when radioactive particles blow around the world and the sky turns dark from all the smoke, dust, and ash. Still, there is an excellent chance that some pockets of humans could survive if they figure out ways to insulate themselves from the radiation, stay warm, and procure enough water and food. It's not impossible by any means. Humans are very good at figuring out solutions to difficult challenges. Remember, we already know how to live in harsh environments such as the Antarctic and in space.
Killer Germs
We are always in danger of some germ evolving into a lethal monster capable of spreading from human to human and killing millions, maybe even billions. Massive epidemics have already happened many times in the past. Killer germs have had profound impacts on European and Asian history, and they wiped out perhaps as much as 90 percent of the Native American population who died from smallpox and other diseases soon after the first Europeans arrived in the New World. The movies and history books often downplay it or leave it out entirely, but more people were killed by germs than bullets in the Civil War and in World War I. Bacteria and viruses can be wicked. They could even bring about our extinction.
To make matters worse, it's not only nature we have to worry about. Deadly engineered microbes could be created and released from a laboratory either by accident or on purpose. It's unlikely but still possible that a killer species of tiny viruslike invaders may descend upon us from space or hitch a ride on the hull of one of our returning space vehicles. But while all these scenarios could happen, I don't see any of them leading to our extinction. Again, if our smarts couldn't save us, our sheer numbers and geographical spread probably would.
I remember in the days following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reading about an Indian Coast Guard helicopter that was sent to assess damaged coastlines. While flying over one island, a naked man defiantly shot an arrow at the helicopter. He was a member of an isolated tribe of people called the Sentinelese. Such groups of people who live in near or total isolation from the rest of humankind would probably do very well if biological catastrophe strikes the part of the world the rest of us live in. Their isolation might not be enough in the event of an asteroid strike, nuclear war, or supervolcano eruption. But if the threat is a virus, they have an excellent chance of survival and continuing the species. Their separation would leave them well positioned to inherit the Earth.
Climate Change
Rise of the Machines
“Do we build gods, or do we build our potential exterminators?” asks artificial intelligence researcher Hugo de Garis in his book The Artilect War.2 Yes, we may all end up at the end of a leash held by intelligent machines one day. And, if they grow bored with us, we might be eliminated. But I don't think so. I have no problem believing in the likelihood of superpowerful computers and robotics bringing profound changes to our world. However, I don't believe it would result in our demise. Radical evolution maybe, but not abrupt extinction. What is going to happen is that we will merge with machines and computers. There is no doubt about this because it's already happening. It will be difficult if not impossible for machines to wage war against us in the future because they will be us and we will be them. There is also the likelihood that some genius somewhere will think to include an off switch when designing a computer capable of conquering the world.
50 Popular Beliefs That People Think Are True Page 41
