He won a place at Xiamen University and gained the best possible marine engineering degree. He took two additional courses in the study of nuclear physics, and at twenty-two joined the Navy, where his rise to prominence was swift and sure. At the age of thirty-nine he was commanding officer of the new Shanghai-built Luda Class guided-missile destroyer Nanjing. At forty-four, he was appointed Commander of the East Sea Fleet, and four years later became Chief of the Naval Staff. The Great Reformer, the late Deng Xiaoping, who at that time was still holding on to his last active chairmanship, that of the Military Affairs Commission, promoted him to Commander in Chief of the People’s Liberation Army-Navy, because he believed that Admiral Zhang was the man to mastermind the modernization of the Chinese Navy.
Deng made the appointment because of one conversation he had with the young Admiral, who told him, “When I was a very little boy, my father was the best freighter captain in Xiamen. He worked harder than anyone, and he was cleverer than anyone, but our ship was old and it continually went wrong. My father was probably the only man on the whole waterfront who could have kept it going, but the struggle was impossible because we were poor, and people with better, faster, and more reliable freighters took the best of the trade, especially in transporting fruit and vegetables. In maritime matters, sir, there is no substitute for the best equipment. I would rather have ten top-class modern submarines than a hundred out-of-date ones. Give me ten brand-new guided missile destroyers, fifty modern frigates, and a new aircraft carrier, and I’ll keep this country safe from attack from the sea for half a century.”
Deng loved it. Here was a modern man who could see beyond the horizon. He knew the elderly High Command of the People’s Liberation Army would not like what they heard, since most of them still believed that huge numbers of half-trained men—2.2 million soldiers — and a vast, near-obsolete fleet of aging warships was preferable. Deng, however, knew instinctively that Admiral Zhang was his man.
The decision to equip the Chinese Navy with the ten Russian-built Kilos had in the end been Zhang’s, and it was he who urged the Navy paymasters to buy the sixty-seven-thousand-ton aircraft carrier Admiral Gudenko, still unfinished in the Ukraine yard of Nikolayev. And now his plans were in ruins, his strategies for the twenty-first century in chaos, and he faced the reproving stares of the elderly Vice Admirals Pheng Lu Dong, seventy-one, and Zhi-Heng Tan, sixty-eight, with a mixture of anger and inhibition.
In his soul, he knew that he was being blamed for all of this. The older generation believed that China had no further need to expand its borders, save for some future opportunity to bring Taiwan back into the fold. They had all the territory they would ever need, and they basically had no natural enemy since the demise of the Soviet empire. The worst that could ever happen would be border skirmishes of little significance in the north. Now the purchase of three billion dollars’ worth of submarines from Moscow was sucking them into a war with the United States of America. At least that’s how it looked to Pheng Lu Dong and Zhi-Heng Tan.
Admiral Zhang, his friend the Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Sang Ye, and the South Sea Fleet Commander, Vice Admiral Zu Jicai, viewed the matter differently. All three felt that this was a terrible affront to the honor of China and a momentous loss of face in front of the world community. China had the largest Army in the world and the third largest Navy, in numbers if not in capability, and all three believed they should carry out some ferocious retribution against the United States.
Admiral Sang Ye was prepared to finance and organize a terrorist attack on the American mainland. Something similar to the Oklahoma bombing. “There are 1.6 million Chinese people living in the United States,” he said. “I am sure we could arrange for twenty of them to carry out a bombing in New York or Washington. When it is done we can send a one word message: KILOS. Our honor would be saved.”
None of the three suggested taking a shot at a US Navy warship. But Admiral Zhang said, as he had so many times before, “We must get the rest of the Kilos. Only by doing so can we ever hope to dominate the Taiwan Strait. Those submarines could allow us to carry out a Naval blockade of Taiwan. I am just afraid our political masters will not have the will for this, and that the entire order will be canceled. We will be forever powerless. It is the Kilo submarine which really bothers the USA, and they know we can send their big aircraft carriers away for good, if we can just get ten Kilos in service.”
“We do have three in our possession right now,” said Admiral Pheng. “Would it not be possible for us to build the rest ourselves, perhaps under license from Russia? It happens quite often in the West.”
“It happens, Admiral,” replied Zhang. “But it does not often work. Submarines are capricious creatures unless they are perfectly constructed. They have millions of working parts. If one of them is not correctly fitted the whole is flawed and you end up with a boat that is not right and will never be right. Almost every Third World nation that has made submarines under license has had trouble from them. The Middle East is a scrap yard of ambitious nations that thought they could run a submarine force, but never got to sea, never mind underwater. I am afraid that to own and run efficient inshore submarines, you have to get them from Great Britain, Russia, France, Holland, Sweden, or Germany. The USA does not make them anymore.”
“Then perhaps we should not bother with them and build destroyers and frigates instead,” ventured Admiral Pheng. “They are very much less expensive and can be very effective.”
“Admiral, you have been a friend to me for all of my time in the Navy, and I am honored to have been taught by you,” replied Zhang. “But I have made a study for years of the American capability, and you must believe me when I tell you that if the United States Navy turned a couple of Carrier Battle Groups loose on us in the South China Sea, they could annihilate our entire southern Navy in less than a day. The only way to combat them would be to hit and destroy their carrier, and the only way to do that is with a submarine capable of deploying a torpedo containing a nuclear warhead. All other subjects are irrelevant.”
His voice softened a little when he added, “In the end, we are talking about Taiwan and repossession of the island. Just by having a Kilo fleet, we are deterring anyone, including America, from interfering. In the end you will find we are merely upping the ante. If we can get those Kilos, there will be no war. Because no one else will like their chances.”
“I must bow, then, to the great wisdom of the Navy’s young master,” said Admiral Pheng, smiling. “As ever you have my loyal support.”
Admiral Zhang also smiled. But he found it difficult. He rose to his feet and announced that he was retiring for the night. “Walk with me, Jicai,” he said to the South Sea Fleet Commander. “I’m staying in Naval quarters tonight, and we’ll take my car. We need to be back here in six hours, and in my view the entire future of the Navy is in the balance.”
Five Navy staff cars awaited them at the side entrance in Chang’an Avenue. It was 0400, and the snow had stopped, but the ground was covered and the temperature was twelve degrees below freezing. The wind was raw. Admire Zhang and Vice Admiral Zu boarded the first Mercedes-Benz limousine. The others bowed as they left. And the wide tires of the German-built automobile made a soft, creaking sound on the fresh snow as they drove slowly away from the white expanse of Tiananmen Square.
At 1100 the following morning, the Paramount Ruler, smoking fiercely, walked unsteadily into the conference room on the second floor of the Great Hall of the People. Parliament had been suspended for the day while he and the General Secretary of the Party attended the meeting with their senior military command. No other members of the ruling Politburo were aware of what had happened. And they never would. Each man in the private conference room had been sworn to absolute secrecy.
They now deferred to the Paramount Ruler, who wished them all good morning. He then asked for the recommendation of his Commander in Chief, Admiral Zhang Yushu, who rose to his feet and confirmed that he would be honored to
report.
“I do not think there should be anyone in doubt that our submarines were hit and destroyed by the United States Navy,” Zhang began. “There is no point speaking to them about this because they will simply deny all knowledge of it, and act as if they are shocked that such an outrage should have occurred.
“I have been in personal contact with the Russians this morning, who have arrived at the same conclusion. Apparently they were given an ultimatum by the United States less than a month ago to suspend delivery of our order for the Kilos. They did not, however, think that even as barbarous and self-interested a country as the USA would dare to pull off something like this. Nonetheless, we now know differently.
“The Russians are as upset and angry as we are, and later today we will be working out an escort plan to ensure the safe arrival of the remaining five Kilos…”
“If,” interrupted Vice Admiral Yang Zhenying, the Political Commissar of the Navy, “we decide to proceed with the remainder of the order. I believe we did have to pay for the two missing Kilos before they were allowed to clear the Murman coast.”
“Yes, that is partially so,” said Admiral Zhang. “I am afraid no one receives credit in Russia. Not even us.”
“Well, we may think that six hundred million dollars is a very high price to pay for nothing, though it is not as bad as one and a half billion would be if you lost the other five,” replied Admiral Yang.
“With respect, Admiral,” replied Zhang. “We had paid only six hundred million. And it is hard for me to assume responsibility for an unwarranted, unprecedented act of war by the United States of America.”
“Then you have much still to learn, Admiral. In military matters, as in the boxing ring, the rule is: defend yourself at all times. Those who have forgotten this have had the error of their ways thrust upon them. I am very much afraid that as the Commander in Chief of the People’s Liberation Army-Navy you are entirely responsible for the safe passage of all Chinese warships, and with the greatest respect for your high authority, I am obliged to mention that you did a singularly unpleasing job in protecting our substantial investment in the Russian-built submarines.”
Admiral Zhang remained calm. “What would you recommend I should have done?” he asked coldly.
“I am afraid that I cannot be expected to solve your problems as well as my own,” replied Admiral Yang. “I would, however, prefer to have a man on the job who was big enough for it, and who might have shown foresight in the light of known hostility from the USA.”
“It would do me no honor to remind you that you were never once considered sufficiently competent to command even a regional fleet,” rasped Zhang. “You were a fourth-rate Captain of an aging frigate that would have fallen in half if you had ever fired one of its guns. And you consider you have a right to sit in judgment on me…you are a political commissar because you married well and had already failed abjectly as a commanding officer—”
The Paramount Ruler banged his frail fist softly on the table. “Gentlemen, this is unseemly, and unproductive. Admiral Yang, you are now a member of a greatly revered Naval family. I forbid you to cast doubts on the ability of my Commander in Chief. It does you no honor and is of no value to this meeting. I am looking to the future, and if you cannot be constructive perhaps you should not be here. I admire you and would like you to think more deeply before you speak. Please continue, Zhang.”
“Of course, sir. I think we should concentrate on two areas — whether we consider taking retribution against the USA, which I am in favor of doing, and how to ensure the safe delivery of the final five Kilos—”
“Yes, yes I do understand the anxiety of the Navy in this matter, but you know, Zhang, there is a broader picture here and we should not ignore it. Let me just say that we have already agreed we are a satisfied state and do not really have any territorial claims. We enjoy a permanent seat at the United Nations, and a veto on the Security Council. We also enjoy Most Favored Nation status with the United States — permanently.
“Let me remind you of the words of Deng Xiaoping. He said we should hide our capacities, bide our time, remain free of ambitions, and never claim leadership. He meant, Zhang, that we should avoid adventures. And I am drawn to the conclusion that this is an adventure, but I would like to hear you say more.”
“Sir,” said Zhang, “I am wondering if I should just clarify for myself, and with the wisdom of your guidance…was it not decreed in all of our greatest Councils for the past forty years that we must work carefully toward the reintroduction of Taiwan to the mainland government? And have we not stated endlessly that we would like to remove the formal American influence in the area, just as we removed the British from Hong Kong?”
“Yes, Zhang, you are correct in those assumptions.”
“Then, with respect, if I may speak as a military man, I would like to put forward the idea that unless we can frighten the American carriers out of our waters we can never achieve those aims. As we now know more clearly today than we did last month, the United States is utterly ruthless in the pursuit of her own aims. She wishes to dominate the sea trade routes, which surround our eastern seaward border, and with every passing year she drives a bigger and bigger wedge between us and Taiwan.
“And when we show any sign of Naval power in our own Taiwan Strait, a giant American aircraft carrier appears, which could take our Eastern Provinces off the map if it felt so inclined. And who could do anything about it? No one. We have one chance, sir — the Kilos, and I implore you, in your unfathomable wisdom, to permit the program to go forward with the additional security Admiral Yang would like me to organize. And in which he is, of course, entirely unqualified to play a part.”
The Paramount Ruler smiled and shook his head. “You are not a good man with whom to pick a fight, Zhang,” he said. “But I am indebted to you for your clarity of vision. There is one further thought I would like to offer. You know of course that we did sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1991. I do not want to provoke the West into believing that the acquisition of the Russian Kilos is merely to provide us with a vehicle to deliver an underwater nuclear warhead.
“Zhang, we are not at war with anyone, and I do not want that situation to change. I want this nation of ours to join the world, to be a part of the great interchanges and relationships that go with world trade. There is nothing for China in a major military disagreement with the United States. Might we not be better off to forget the whole thing and let the USA prowl around in the Taiwan Strait for as long as they wish? They are, Zhang, our biggest customer, and we are growing rich on the proceeds. The distant joy of reuniting Taiwan with Beijing is a very long-range hope, and I wonder if it would be worth it.”
Admiral Zhang smiled. “I am always awed by your discernment and learning, sir. And as usual your erudition is beyond reproach. But might I ask you for a few moments to consider the question of Taiwan from another angle. As that Chinese island grows ever closer to America, we must face the fact that it is just a matter of time before she acquires her own nuclear deterrent. Every country in this world that has grown rich enough, and felt threatened enough, has always tried to have an independent nuclear capacity.”
The Paramount Ruler spoke again. “You know, Zhang,” he said, “we should not perhaps forget that Taiwan is not a country alone. It remains a part of China. It was not so long ago they stopped threatening to retake the mainland.”
“No, sir. I am very aware of the situation. But I would also remind everyone that it was not so long ago that the United States sent in warships from the Seventh Fleet when they thought the forces of Communist China might attempt to retake Taiwan. The lines of self-interest are finely drawn.”
“They are, Zhang, they are,” replied the old man. “And we should attend to the unmistakable truth that all of our efforts to prevent major arms sales to Taiwan have in the end come to nothing. The island grows ever richer and will soon wish to own a nuclear deterrent.”
“Taiwan in my view,�
� said Zhang, “has already reached that stage, and I am certain has given the matter serious consideration. The only way we can discourage having a rich, possibly hostile, nuclear power right in our own backyard is to return them to our own fold. They will not come voluntarily. And we can only achieve that by ensuring that the big American Carrier Battle Groups cannot roam at will through our trading waters, two hundred miles out from the mainland, encompassing the whole of Taiwan.
“The Kilos from Russia will give us that capacity, and subsequently that freedom. But time is not on our side. The Taiwanese, as we all know, are very clever. I regard them as a time bomb that we cannot defuse, not for as long as they remain under close American protection.”
The Paramount Ruler nodded. “You are saying, Zhang, that in your judgment, we are not dealing with a problem that places us in an unwanted aggressive mode. You are saying that in the end, the Kilos represent the heart of a possible Chinese defense policy?”
“That is precisely what I am saying, sir. This is a turbulent world, and for a country of our size and potential wealth, we must have a capability to keep our own seas free from enemy warships. And our Navy cannot do that at present.”
The second of the elderly Deputy Commander in Chiefs, Vice Admiral Zhi-Heng Tan, now spoke for the first time. He was respectful but in disagreement. “I understand your desire to own the Kilos, Admiral Zhang,” he said. “And I also understand a certain youthful desire to exact a revenge on the USA. But there is a saying among Western lawyers that has a significance here: never go to the law for revenge…only for money.
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