by Dave Edlund
“Jim, you predicted that my father’s team might be the target of an attack, so why assign only two under-armed marshals for protection?”
“To begin with, Peter, the attack you just survived was far more significant than what I had feared. With the exception of the Caracas suicide bombings, the pattern had been limited to isolated murders. I didn’t anticipate such a bold assault on U.S. soil. I won’t underestimate my enemy again.”
“Okay, so this was different. Why?”
“I can’t say. But it seems the degree of organization and intensity of violence is escalating. At Caracas as well as on Chernabura Island, military weapons and tactics were used. This suggests to me that whoever is behind this is under pressure to achieve results with the most expediency possible.”
“You’ve mentioned a number of murders that you believe are part of this pattern to eliminate selected scientists. Maybe the list is almost complete?” Peter found it strange to hypothesize about the motives of a murderer.
Then he added, “What am I saying? I don’t know what I’m talking about. I keep thinking about one person ordering these murders. But that doesn’t make sense. It’s got to be a government, right? I mean, only a government would have the resources and motive to do this.” His frustration was evident.
“Maybe,” answered Jim. “But I keep coming back to why? Why change the tactics and methods now?”
“And you still believe that the overall objective is to derail the research efforts aimed at discovering a route to synthetic oil production?”
“Yes, I do.” Just then Jim’s eyes widened as a revelation occurred to him. “Maybe that’s it.”
Professor Savage had been quietly listening, still regretting his stubborn refusal to heed Jim’s warning weeks ago. Now he wanted to help solve the riddle. “Maybe what, is it? You have said all along that the murders were about depriving mankind of the knowledge to manufacture petroleum.”
“Maybe the violence has escalated because they think a major breakthrough is near. It was very risky to send armed mercenaries onto U.S. territory with the goal of murdering your entire team. Thank God they failed.” Jim paused for a moment to organize his thoughts.
“Professors, is your work close to a significant breakthrough?”
Professor Savage answered. “I am not sure what you mean by ‘significant.’ As I told you before, our work is aimed at achieving a fundamental understanding of geochemical reactions that we hypothesize can yield hydrocarbons on Titan. Professor Sato provides a theoretical understanding, while my work is focused on experimental studies.”
Professor Sato joined the conversation. “Yes. Our calculations must ultimately be validated through experimental measurements.”
“Our work to date has yielded positive and very encouraging results, but the reaction rates are far too slow. I had planned to begin a systematic evaluation of potential catalysts,” added Professor Savage.
Then a frown appeared as he realized that his students had not had time to gather all the specimens he needed. “But without the samples, it’s doubtful we’ll make much progress in the lab.”
Jim smiled. “Relax, Professor. I’ll put you in touch with a friend of mine at the National Science Foundation. I think he can help you out with the necessary rock specimens.”
Getting back on task, Jim pressed further. “And what would be a successful outcome of your work?”
“If Professor Sato’s kinetic models can be validated, then we would report our results in one, maybe two, refereed papers. I would like to think that publication would be given priority.”
It was obvious that neither academic was seeing the big picture. They continued to think of their work only as fodder for publications.
“I presume you have been publishing your research results?” Jim queried.
“Of course. We’ve published a few papers, but not many.”
“And when was the most recent publication?”
Professor Savage glanced at Sato-san before answering. “We had planned to make a joint presentation at the Hedberg Conference in Caracas, but had to withdraw the paper at the last moment because the theoretical calculations and our preliminary data were not matching well.”
“Dad, I didn’t know you were planning to go to that conference; you never told me.”
“Once we withdrew the paper, it didn’t seem important.”
Jim rubbed his temples, quiet in thought. Peter instantly understood the implications, especially the danger.
“You and Professor Sato are fortunate that you didn’t present your results in Caracas,” said Jim. “Had you been there, you would have been killed. Seems you both escaped death… twice now. I’d suggest you not push your luck.”
Professor Savage cast his eyes down to the table top.
Jim felt like he was lecturing a child. Both scholars were naïve, almost unbelievably so.
Needing to move on, he cleared his throat and said, “Please continue, Professor.”
“About two months ago, we found the problem; some of the assumptions in the calculation were faulty. Having made the corrections, we submitted a paper describing our recent results to the Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering. It’s currently in review, but we expect it to be accepted for publication.”
Peter and Jim exchanged a quick glance. “And what are the key findings you are reporting?”
“The data from our high pressure reactions are described very well by Sato-san’s thermodynamic and kinetic modeling. For the first time, we have validated a computer model derived from first principles that suggests petroleum can indeed be synthesized within the mantle of planets and moons.”
Jim was stunned. “My God, that’s it.” He was almost whispering. Everyone was silent, absorbed in the immense meaning of this discovery. Professor Savage sagged back in his chair, both hands resting on the table, no longer able to ignore the significant implications of his research.
At last Jim broke the silence. “Okay. You said your work is not funded by oil companies, right?”
“Yes. I have a grant from NASA, and Sato-san has a subcontract under that grant.”
“I’m not a scientist, so I must confess that I don’t understand all this talk of chemistry and hydrocarbons and moons of Saturn.” There was a hint of frustration in Jim’s voice.
Peter stepped in. “Maybe I can help, Jim. Here is the conundrum. For decades, geologists have explained oil and gas deposits on earth as the result of the anaerobic decay of plant and animal material from carbon-based life forms. You know, ferns and dinosaurs. But that cannot possibly be the explanation for hydrocarbons on Titan, since it could never support life as we know it. So there has to be another explanation.”
“Okay, I’m with you,” said Jim.
“There could very well be multiple mechanisms that yield simple and complex hydrocarbons—what we collectively refer to as petroleum or oil and natural gas,” said Professor Sato. “Through theory and experiment, scientists can test hypothetical chemical mechanisms. The data allows us to argue in support of a particular mechanism or to disprove others. It would be very unlikely for such a diverse collection of chemical compounds as are found in petroleum to be the product of only a single reaction mechanism. Of course, we are not arguing that petroleum cannot be formed from biological material—dinosaurs, as Peter-san says. Rather, we are testing the hypothesis that petroleum may also be formed from inorganic reactions.”
“Dad, we’ve been told for decades that petroleum and gas are finite resources. The experts have continually forecast diminishing reserves. If your theories are right and petroleum is also made from inorganic reactions in the Earth’s mantle, could there be a continual resupply?”
“Yes, perhaps so. You see, those predictions have mostly been wrong. Peak oil production has not occurred yet, despite more than seven decades of predictions that it is imminent. Sato-san and I have many colleagues in the Ukraine and Russia. They really pioneered the theory of abiogenic oil formation
and have successfully employed the theory to find new and significant reserves. But the ‘theory’ is lacking details, and it doesn’t explain how oil is formed—only that it may be formed by mechanisms not involving decaying plant and animal matter.”
“What inorganic reactions could possibly yield oil?” asked Jim.
“We have theorized that calcium carbonate and other mineral carbonates may be reduced by hydrogen to form hydrocarbons. We have speculated that carbonates are present on Titan, but that hasn’t been confirmed. Water is present. The thermodynamic models developed by Sato-san support our hypothesis. The problem has been two-fold. One, where does the hydrogen come from? And two, can the reactions occur at a sufficiently fast rate to be significant?
“The research site on Chernabura Island is ideal, since it is located at the edge of the North America plate, where the Pacific plate is subducted into the mantle. The ocean floor is, of course, rich in calcium carbonate from shells, and hydrogen is plentiful in the form of water. As this material is drawn into the mantle, it is subjected to intense heating and extreme pressures. All of this creates ideal conditions for hydrocarbon formation.”
“I thought you just said that Professor Sato’s models show that the reactions are thermodynamically possible?” Jim needed to understand the science fully to solve the question about motive.
“Yes,” answered Professor Savage. “But just because a reaction is thermodynamically favored does not mean that the rate of reaction is fast enough to support the theorized end result. It could take millions of years for a reaction to occur.”
“I see,” said Jim. “And I presume that the high temperatures available within the earth are pivotal to your theories?”
“Remember, our work is focused on processes in the mantle of Titan, not Earth. But I see where you’re going, and… yes. I would have to agree that the unique conditions of pressure and temperature within the Earth—and potentially other planetary bodies—may make these chemical reactions occur at a significant rate. A good example is the formation of diamonds. They are one of the most stable forms of carbon, more stable than amorphous carbon—the black charcoal formed in wood fires. Yet to transform amorphous carbon to a diamond requires extremely high pressure and temperatures. Diamonds occur naturally in places associated with igneous rock. They are formed from carbon deep within the mantle and rise to the earth’s surface in volcanic pipes. In fact, diamonds were first discovered in Africa and India in the ancient kimberlite formations of eroded lava cores from extinct volcanoes.”
“Okay, I get it. So what is the next phase of your research?”
“Now that the thermodynamic proof has been achieved, my group is focusing on identifying potential reaction catalysts that accelerate the reaction to measureable rates. The samples we would have gathered on the island were for this purpose. Once we have found an effective chemical catalyst or combination of catalysts, the reaction mechanism can be studied in depth.”
Jim believed he was on the verge of fully understanding the reason for the recent escalation in violence. “So once you’ve identified a catalyst for the reaction, couldn’t companies begin to manufacture petroleum?”
“Well, yes… I suppose so. But there would still be much to learn.”
Jim’s mind was chewing through ideas, theories, rejecting, accepting, and modifying them until he felt he narrowed in on a solid hypothesis.
“Your results—a proof that petroleum is created in the mantle of the Earth—that’s the key. Until now, it’s only been unproven theories. But your results changed that. Those theories are now supported by extensive theoretical and experimental results.”
Peter understood. “And that’s why there was a sudden escalation in the severity of the attacks. They thought Dad and Professor Sato would be at the Hedberg Conference; that’s why they used suicide bombers to kill everyone.”
“And when they realized that Professor Savage and Professor Sato were not in attendance—that they had withdrawn their paper—they formulated a new plan—the assault on the research team on Chernabura Island.”
The words hung heavy, almost like a fog, in the cabin of the aircraft.
“It makes sense,” commented Peter. His father and Professor Sato both nodded ever so slightly.
Jim felt energized. They had made significant, albeit painful, progress in their understanding. There would be plenty of time later for the professors to work through their personal guilt and remorse. Time was of the essence, and he needed to keep them moving toward a solution.
“We need to know who is behind this. Who is orchestrating and funding the murders.”
Peter said, “You hinted before that you thought countries with vast oil reserves might be threatened by my father’s work.”
“It’s just a theory, and we need to develop it fully. But my suspicion is based on the fact that many countries, some not so friendly toward the United States and the West in general, rely heavily on the sale of oil to support their regimes. If these countries were to be deprived of that revenue stream, what do you think would happen to them?”
Peter pressed further. “But that’s where I’m struggling with the logic. Just because we develop a method to synthesize oil doesn’t mean that Iran, Libya, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and others would be deprived of oil revenue overnight. I’d imagine that building the infrastructure to synthesize oil would take decades, even with dedicated government support.”
“Yes, it would take years, but maybe not as many as you imagine. In the 1960s we developed manned space flight and landed Neil Armstrong on the moon within the decade. It took less than a decade to develop atomic energy and nuclear weapons. If the government commits to a massive program to synthesize oil—in essence to wean our country from dependence on imported petroleum—the task could be completed in a similar time frame, maybe less.”
Peter was still skeptical. “But the space program received widespread support from Congress. With the close connection between many elected representatives and established oil companies, that political support may not materialize.”
“True, but then again I’d argue that the established oil companies have the most to gain and the most capability to implement a massive program aimed at synthesizing oil. And if they don’t get on board, the voters will oust those politicians dumb enough to oppose the change.”
Professor Savage still had doubts. “For the sake of argument, let’s say that your projected time frame is correct. We still have so much work to do. Sato-san and I still have to validate the kinetic models and reaction mechanisms. The required catalysts need to be discovered. Reaction engineering scale-up needs to be done and so does process design and engineering. That work alone could take us many years.”
“You continue to think small. If the government throws its full financial capability and resources behind the program, how long would it take?” Jim didn’t expect an answer.
“Now, what if you were the leader of Iran or Venezuela? These are governments that remain in power to a large degree through monetary subsidies to their citizens. How do you continue to pay those subsidies? How do you continue to finance your military if oil drops to ten dollars per barrel? Because that’s what will happen when we can make oil from water and rocks.”
Jim let that thought sink in before continuing.
“I think a very plausible scenario is that one or more of the OPEC countries has learned through the open literature and conference papers that the field of abiogenic petroleum formation has been making progress toward a fundamental understanding of how to synthesize oil, and most recently they saw your report of the first scientific proof that this actually can be done. Any knowledge that threatens to undermine the price of oil must then be viewed as a threat. So they respond with force, attempting to terminate the research before further breakthroughs are achieved.”
Professor Savage didn’t argue, even though he didn’t want to believe what Jim was saying. His eyes were narrowed and his lips drawn tight; his arms folded
tight across his chest.
Very calmly, Sato-san spoke, “There is logic in Jim-san’s scenario. Ian-san, do not close your eyes to the truth. You have always wanted to believe that men are good, but sadly many are not.”
As before, Peter was quick to understand. “If you are right, Jim, then the party behind this madness is one or more OPEC countries—the oil cartel. But which one, or ones? And what do we do about it once we know for sure?”
“My team at The Office is working on the first question. We’ll continue working the finger prints, photos, and forged documents gathered from that pile of carrion… uh, the dead mercenaries.”
“I understood,” Peter allowed himself a brief smile. “I’m beginning to learn some of your lingo, Jim.” It was the first time Jim had seen Peter smile since they were in Bend almost two weeks ago.
“Right. The second question… well, the answer to that one is way above my pay grade. It will be up to the President and his advisors to formulate a plan. I can only hope that the Joint Chiefs will have a lot of input. I don’t trust the politicians on matters related to military actions.”
Bull interrupted the meeting. “Boss, I have Colonel Pierson on the horn.”
Jim took the handset. “Nicolaou.”
He listened. The conversation was punctuated by an occasional, “Yes, sir” from Jim. When the conversation ended, Jim gave the handset back to Bull.
“That was my boss, Colonel Pierson. He has responsibility for—and authority over—the Strategic Global Intervention Team. Following a detailed debriefing of all of you at The Office, I am to send a complete transcript as well as my report to him ASAP. It seems he has taken an unusual interest in this case.”
“Look, Jim, I’ve answered all your questions. I just want to go home and get back to work at my lab. My students will want to go home, too.”
