by Dave Edlund
The U.K. ambassador was the first to speak. “My country will support the U.S. resolutions if you ask for a vote. And if it comes to a military conflict, by God we’ll be right there with you, shoulder to shoulder.”
“Thank you. As always, we value your country’s continued support.”
“We, too, will support the resolutions.” This was from the German ambassador.
“My countrymen have witnessed the treachery of Russia first hand,” said the ambassador from Georgia. “We must collectively stand firmly united against these egregious actions carried out by the Russian Federation!”
Ukraine and Poland, two more eastern European countries that had felt pressure from an expansionist Russia, echoed the sentiment of the Georgian ambassador.
And so it went around the table. Every ambassador pledged support.
Then it came to the Chinese ambassador. Bryan looked at him expectantly. “Mr. Ambassador, I must ask. If these resolutions come up for vote, will the People’s Republic of China vote in the affirmative?”
The ambassador looked first at Paul Bryan, then at each person around the table. Then he cast his gaze again upon the secretary of state. “Mr. Secretary, the information you have shared this evening is most disturbing, and it causes me to question the true intentions of the government in Moscow. As you know, we have been working toward closer ties.”
The ambassador paused for a moment and looked at his folded hands. Then he raised his head and continued, “Perhaps we have been deceived. Nevertheless, it would be very difficult for my government to vote in support of your proposed resolutions. To do so would be very damaging to Sino-Russian relations for years to come. However, I am confident we would choose to abstain from such a vote and allow it to pass or fail based on the voices of the remaining members of the Security Council.”
And with that, Paul Bryan had achieved all he had set out for. He thanked the ambassadors again and bid them good night. As they filed out of the meeting room, he turned to his aides and the U.S. ambassador. “Let’s get these briefing books picked up. The home team finally scored a run, but the game isn’t over yet. I’d suggest we all get a good night’s rest. I know I could use it. Tomorrow is a busy day. Tomorrow, we confront the Bear.”
Chapter 30
October 15
Washington, D.C.
“Good afternoon, Mr. Prime Minister.” Paul Bryan had briefed the Russian foreign minister earlier, and trusted that President Pushkin would take his call, so he was surprised to be speaking with the prime minister. It was still early morning in Washington, and Bryan wanted to take advantage of the time difference.
“President Pushkin is not available, but he believes in the importance of open communication with the United States government.”
“Thank you, Mr. Prime Minster.”
“The accusations you shared with my foreign minister are very serious, Mr. Secretary.” The telephone conversation had only begun, yet the tension was already palpable.
“I couldn’t agree more, sir. But the facts speak clearly and unambiguously.”
“Come now, Mr. Secretary. Who would possibly believe that a Russian submarine furtively entered your territorial waters and landed spetsnaz troops? I would not think America is so vulnerable.”
Bryan remained impassive. The taunting was typical and he had expected nothing less. Indeed, Prime Minister Petrovsky had chosen his words carefully, and he did not deny the events. This in itself was a subtle admission of the truth.
“We did not imagine this incursion. As I explained to your foreign minister, we have irrefutable sonar evidence tracking the Saint Petersburg into littoral waters in the Aleutian Island chain… to Chernabura Island. She was shadowed by the New Mexico, one of our Virginia-class fast-attack subs—but I’m confident you already know that.
“The Saint Petersburg transported two teams to the island, the first a terrorist team led by Pablo Ramirez, working on behalf of Venezuela. The second team was the naval spetsnaz sniper team. We know the exact coordinates where the teams were launched from the sub, what time they were launched, and what vehicles carried them to the island. I think you do as well.”
There was a very long pause in the conversation, and Bryan thought for a moment that maybe the connection had been broken. And then Petrovsky spoke again.
“I will indulge you for the time being. Please continue.”
“The captain of the New Mexico captured your spetsnaz soldiers. We have them in custody. Don’t worry. They’re being treated well.”
“The world has seen how well America treats prisoners of war. The draconian American soldiers at Guantanamo Bay will not soon be forgotten.”
“With all due respect, Mr. Prime Minister, your spetsnaz soldiers were captured in U.S. territorial waters during a clandestine mission onto U.S. soil. We could execute them before a firing squad at any time and be well within our international rights and completely in accordance with the Geneva Convention, not to mention centuries of common practice.”
“If the purpose of your call is to barter for their lives, I have more important duties to attend to.”
“No, Mr. Prime Minister, that is not the purpose of my call. Your soldiers will be returned in good health soon enough.”
“Feel free to get to the point, Mr. Secretary. I am a busy man.” Petrovsky made no attempt to hide his growing impatience, and he made no effort to continue with the pleasantries.
“Of course. Last night I briefed the Security Council—”
“This is an outrage!” Petrovsky interrupted. “As a permanent member of the Security Council, my ambassador should have been given ample notice to attend!”
“I am sure you appreciate that as presiding President of the Security Council, the U.S. ambassador has certain latitude to call special meetings under extraordinary circumstances. This situation qualifies as such.”
“You have no right to brief the Security Council in our absence!”
“Your point is moot. The fact remains that last night I did brief the other thirteen members of the Security Council and shared the same facts and data that I have shared with both you and your foreign minister. The members of the council were unanimous in their opposition to these latest acts of Russian aggression. Sir, the international community is galvanized against the Russian Federation.”
The line was silent, another long pause.
“And what, precisely, is your request?”
“That Russian military and intelligence departments cease, immediately, all support for terrorist operations directed by Enrique Garza and the government of Venezuela.”
“Russia and Venezuela are allies, of sorts, even though no formal treaties have been signed yet. You cannot demand that we cease political and military relationships with countries other than those of your choosing.”
“Mr. Prime Minister, we both know the patent truth. Venezuela has been using your assistance to carry out a protracted campaign of terror against the United States, Europe, and Japan. Under the direction of President Enrique Garza, terrorist hit squads have assassinated more than 70 persons over the past eighteen months. Another 23 are suspected of being murdered under his order, and there may well be more. The victims have mostly been scientists and researchers studying alternative routes to oil formation. Some of these routes are believed to be compatible with modern chemical engineering practices. The Garza regime does not want competition; they’d prefer that their customers cannot synthesize petroleum and undercut the price of a barrel of oil.”
“I see.”
Bryan took a deep breath and let it out slowly. “President Taylor has instructed me to tell you that if we do not have your solemn assurances that Russia will cease aiding Venezuelan terrorist actions, the United States will seek international support for deep sanctions against Russia, including freezing global financial assets and establishing broad trade embargos. Overnight Russia will become an international pariah.
“Furthermore, a coalition will be formed to
thwart any military threat that may be forthcoming. We have the support of the Security Council and the Secretary General. When the U.N. member nations en masse are briefed, we have no doubt what the outcome will be.”
The prime minister of Russia was unaccustomed to being told what to do, or what not do. The sting of the collapse of the Soviet Union had not faded with time, yet since that epic event, Russia had been growing in power and influence. The West had little doubt that Russia coveted her former conquests—and more.
In tight, clipped words Prime Minister Petrovsky said, “I presume you have also been instructed to give me a deadline?”
“Yes. Twelve o’clock noon, tomorrow, Moscow time.”
“You are giving my government less than 24 hours. Perhaps that is not enough time.”
“It is not the wish of the United States to foment international hostility toward your government. However, your support of terrorism must end. We understand with whom the power in your government rests, and we are confident that this decision will be made by yourself and President Pushkin.”
“Is there anything else that you wish to add, Mr. Secretary?”
“No, sir. May I ask that your answer be communicated directly to President Taylor? He will be available at any time to receive your call. Thank you, sir.”
“Tell President Taylor that we will be in touch. Good day,” he said as he hung up the phone. Although the words were polite, the tone was far from pleasant.
Paul Bryan felt simultaneously exhausted and wired. He felt the conversation had gone reasonably well. Now it all came down to how much Russia valued her image on the world stage, an image that President Pushkin had worked tirelessly to cultivate when he came into power many years earlier. Prime Minister Petrovsky knew that his country’s support of Venezuelan terrorism had been uncovered. Now that the truth was out, what would Russia do?
Bryan called the President’s chief of staff and scheduled a half-hour meeting to brief President Taylor. The chief of staff said he would also summon General Hendrickson, Secretary of Defense Howard Hale, and Colonel Pierson to the meeting. For now, there was little to do but wait.
An hour later, Paul Bryan was sitting in the Oval Office. President Taylor was anxious to hear how his conversation had gone with Prime Minister Petrovsky. Isolating Venezuela from the protection of the Russian Bear was instrumental to the success of Operation Checkmate.
“Aside from the usual diplomatic maneuvering, it is noteworthy that Prime Minister Petrovsky never denied the covert mission of the Saint Petersburg. To tell you the truth, I think he was more than a bit surprised at how much we knew. I don’t think the captain of the Saint Petersburg had any idea he was being shadowed for essentially the duration of his mission. It would also appear that they had no idea of the detail and amount of intelligence data we gathered on their movements and actions. They may have tried to lie their way out of it, were it not for the two spetsnaz commandos and their equipment that we captured and now hold. Pretty hard to expect other countries to believe it was a mistake, a fabrication of the U.S. government, when we have two Russian spec ops soldiers in custody.”
“So what’s next?” asked the President.
“Prime Minister Petrovsky will need to confer with President Pushkin. They hold the power, so whatever they decide is the course of action that the government will follow. I gave them the deadline we agreed to, twelve noon Moscow time tomorrow. Between now and then, I expect you will receive a very important phone call from President Pushkin.”
“And you think they will agree to our demand?”
“Yes, sir, I do. The Russian government is working very hard to appear to follow accepted international law, despite their expansionist ambitions. I’d wager they will agree to our demands and cut Garza loose, rather than have the spetsnaz prisoners paraded before international television for all the world to see.”
“I pray you are right, Paul.”
The President thought for a moment and then turned to General Hendrickson. “How are the preparations for the military phase of the operation?”
“Everything is proceeding on schedule, Mr. President. The necessary assets are being moved into forward positions even as we speak. D-hour is set for 2200 hours Zulu time tomorrow, 6:00 P.M. in Caracas.”
The President nodded his approval. “Good. Howard, assuming President Pushkin agrees to our demands, you will proceed with Operation Checkmate on schedule. If he declines, then we’ll immediately discuss our response. Have you, General Hendrickson, and the other Joint Chiefs worked through the contingencies? What options are you recommending?”
Secretary of Defense Hale deferred to General Hendrickson.
“Obviously, we’re counting on Russia to let Venezuela stand on her own. However, should they affirm a military alliance, we have planned a layered response that is proportional to the depth of aggression.”
“In English, general, if you please,” replied President Taylor.
“Of course, sir. At 6:00 P.M. Caracas time tomorrow we will launch a measured display of military power in accordance with your briefing yesterday. Assuming the Russians have assets in place—”
“Do they?” interrupted the President.
“Satellite imagery does not reveal anything new. Just the expected aircraft and missile defense batteries that Garza has put in place.”
“Good. Please continue.”
“Assuming that the Russians, either by moving assets into the theater or using Venezuelan assets, choose to participate in the defense of Venezuela, then we have a range of options to select from in response. The idea is to select a response that is proportional in severity to the level of aggression.”
“All right. Give me a couple of examples; I’d like to understand your thinking on this.”
“Well, our capabilities will allow a military response to range from surgical air strikes from unmanned drones to submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles. Those Tomahawks carry either conventional explosives or tactical nuclear warheads.”
“I can’t imagine that this would escalate to nuclear war.”
“Mr. President, I was simply giving you an idea of our offensive capability in the theater. Any decision to use nuclear weapons would have to come from you.”
“Hmm. I trust you will remember that, General.”
“Of course, sir.”
Hale spoke in defense of General Hendrickson. “No one wants to see this escalate, sir.”
President Taylor looked squarely at his military advisors. “Remember, the success or failure of this operation is contingent on solid diplomacy with a small amount of encouragement from our men and women in uniform. I don’t want anyone to get trigger-happy. I’m holding you responsible, General Hendrickson, and you too, Howard, to make sure everyone involved in this operation follows the plan and does their job. Do we understand each other?”
“Certainly, sir.” General Hendrickson was taken aback by the President’s rebuke. “I personally vouch for the professionalism of our officers and enlisted men. There are none finer… anywhere.”
Hale began to speak in defense of the general, but President Taylor held out his hand to stop him.
“Look, General. I know that. Please, don’t misunderstand what I’m saying. This administration has the highest level of respect for our military men and women. But the success of this operation is dependent on everyone doing exactly the right thing. We cannot afford having anyone get excited, understood?”
“All involved in this operation will perform as the professionals they are. You have my assurance on that.”
President Taylor nodded, assessing the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. General Hendrickson had an outstanding record, of course. He had been appointed to his post less than a year ago, and Taylor was still assessing his mettle. The President liked what he saw, so far. The next 48 hours would either prove his leadership, or he would fail. And the country’s fate could very well hang in the balance.
The President shifted his at
tention. “Colonel Pierson. I want to thank you personally for the outstanding job you and your team have done. I understand that your men have not only saved the lives of the American and Japanese academic team in Alaska, but that your analysts have been instrumental in working the intel and providing answers regarding the responsible parties. The men and women under your command have provided an invaluable service to their country.”
“Thank you, sir.”
“I assume you are familiar with Operation Checkmate?”
“Yes, sir. I am.”
“And what is your take on events? Let’s begin with the Russians, and then tell me how you think the Venezuelans will respond.”
“Well, sir, I agree with Secretary of State Bryan. I think the Russians are not committed to having a dog in this fight. They will distance themselves from Garza and his generals.”
“All right. And tomorrow, when Phase II of the operation commences?”
“The Venezuelan military is way outclassed. Without the support of Russia, they will have no choice but to concede the field.”
“Hmm. Paul, assuming Colonel Pierson’s assessment is correct, what is the next step?”
“Concurrent with the military phase of the operation, State will be in constant communication with the chargé d´affaires of the Venzuelan embassy and, through him, the minister of foreign affairs. I agree with the military assessment, and State will stand ready to close the deal. State provides the carrot; General Hendrickson’s team provides the stick.”
“I like the way you put that,” President Taylor smiled. “Let me know if you feel we should modify the package of incentives that we discussed yesterday. Anything else, gentlemen?”
All four men shook their heads.
“All right. You all know how much is riding on this. If we screw up, it could be the beginning of World War III. We can’t let that happen. At the same time, we’ve got to make Garza understand that his state-sponsored terrorism will not be tolerated. This is all about timing and proportion.
