by Bobby Akart
“This has happened before, has it not?” asked Sarge.
“Yes, Mr. President,” replied Major Riley. “Taiwan’s current administration is adamantly against the use of nuclear power. President Tsai Ing-wen has definitively stated that opening a fourth nuclear power plant is not an option.”
“She’s playing to her antinuclear base,” interrupted Donald. “Business leaders have put pressure on her to resolve the current electricity shortages, but she’s firmly against it. Taiwan is barely able to supply sufficient electricity to residential and business users.”
“The official statement is an accident?” asked Sarge.
“Yes, however,” began Brad in response, “the management team at the power plant in question initially issued a statement that they experienced unusual technical difficulties within their computer operations systems. They had to switch to a backup system in order to get power restored.”
“Sounds familiar,” mumbled Donald.
“Yes, it does,” continued Brad.
“How did they shift from that initial statement to human error?” asked Sarge.
Major Riley responded, “According to the government spokesman, the island’s generation capacity was diminished when workers accidentally shut off the natural gas supply to the plant.”
“Come on,” said Donald. “That’s as lame as blaming the squirrels for the massive Vegas outage that spring before the cyber attack.”
“Brad, bottom line it for me.” Sarge shifted uncomfortably in his seat. “Are the Chinese behind this?”
“It certainly has their fingerprints all over it, Mr. President. At this time, however, it’s impossible to state affirmatively whether this is just political shenanigans or part of a larger goal to destabilize Taiwan.”
“Then let me ask another obvious question. Is there any evidence of military preparations across the Taiwan Strait that warrants our sending the U.S. Navy closer to the region?”
“Mr. President, it is rare for our naval vessels to enter the Taiwan Strait. As we’ve discussed in the past, such a move carries a high degree of military and political significance.”
Sarge looked at his watch. It was approaching 8:00 a.m. “Determine what we have in the region and let me know our options during the daily briefing in an hour. We’ll take this up again in the Roosevelt Room.”
Chapter 27
9:00 a.m.
The Roosevelt Room
The White House
Washington, DC
Sarge scrolled through the day’s schedule before he entered the Roosevelt Room for the daily briefing. He saw that Julia had added a thirty-minute window for him to take photographs with the family as part of the presidential historian’s duties. He would have to be more actively involved as they wound down their days in the White House.
Otherwise, the schedule was almost completely dedicated to the vote in the House this afternoon. In addition, the new revelations regarding Taiwan weighed heavily on his mind.
“Good morning, Mr. President,” greeted several of the attendees as they rose out of their seats to show respect.
“Yes, good morning to you all,” he replied. Sarge removed his jacket and handed it to his secretary, Betty. He whispered in her ear, “Betty, I need you to contact 73 Tremont immediately. I need to speak with Malcolm the moment I come out of this briefing.”
“Yes, Mr. President.” Betty nodded, excused herself, and exited the room while closing the door behind her.
Before Sarge sat in his chair, he bypassed the customary protocols and spoke. “Let’s get right to it. Brad, do you have an update for me from this morning’s briefing?”
“Yes, sir, I do. In addition, I’ve asked Darla Walton, the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, to join us. She can provide background as needed.”
“Welcome, Ms. Walton,” said Sarge with a smile.
“Thank you, Mr. President.”
Sarge looked around the room and said, “Who’s here from the CIA?”
“I am, sir,” replied a CIA analyst. “My name is Max Chen.”
Brad continued the introduction. “Mr. President, Chen is an accomplished field agent with extensive experience working on mainland China as well as in Taiwan. I’m told he’s also a savant of sorts at intelligence analysis. He has the ability to see through noise created by large volumes of data that inundate the CIA, and pick and choose only that which is relevant.”
“Good,” said Sarge. “Now where are we? Are we any closer to knowing what really happened yesterday in Taipei?”
“Mr. President, Chen has something to add to this morning’s briefing. Go ahead, Chen,” replied Brad.
“Mr. President,” started Chen without a hint of an Asian accent. He was born in California but was a master of various Chinese languages and dialects. “My contacts in Taipei tell me the power outage was most likely a cyber attack. They have an excellent cyber forensics team working on the situation as we speak, but early indications point to the PLA cyber-terror division—PLA Unit 61398.”
“When will they have definitive evidence?” asked Sarge.
“Honestly, sir, probably never. It’s near impossible to attribute a cyber attack to any one organization, whether state sponsored through PLA Unit 61398 or through their patriot hackers who act extra-governmental. They’ve become the world’s superpower in cyber warfare for a reason. The hackers rejected by the PLA could be considered the elite in any other nation-state, including Russia and the United States.”
Sarge thought for a moment and then asked, “Is there any other group or organization that would initiate a cyber attack at this time? What would they stand to gain?”
“May I take that one?” asked Ms. Walton from State.
“Please,” said Sarge, gesturing with both hands.
“Taiwan’s president has been under continuous pressure from business leaders to ramp up their nuclear power program. It is possible that a consortium of her political opponents used the occasion of Ambassador McBride’s visit to sabotage the grid to bring the issue to the forefront. Illuminating the shortage of electricity, if you’ll pardon the pun, during the ambassador’s visit would cause us to take notice. Clearly, the United States has geostrategic interests in Taiwan to protect. An unreliable power grid would threaten our interests, thus forcing us to put additional political pressure on their president.”
Donald nodded. “That makes sense as well. In fact, the issue really should be addressed by the next administration anyway. I’ll alert the transition team.”
“Okay, so it appears the cyber attack is the real culprit for the rolling blackouts, but as is typical, it’s near impossible to accurately point the finger of blame,” said Sarge. “Obviously, there is no connection between the grid failure and the protests yesterday.”
“Correct,” replied Brad. “Mr. President, I’ve also reviewed our military options. I can deploy an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer to the region to monitor the Chinese. Together with a Taiwanese warship escort, we’ll send a message to the Chinese.”
“Brad, are you suggesting we sail into the Strait?” asked Donald.
“No, just hover nearby. I’ve got the newly commissioned USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. guided-missile destroyer two days’ sail away in the Sea of Japan.”
Sarge stifled a smile, as he knew the ship well. It had been built under a contract with Huntington-Ingalls Industries, a prized acquisition by Walter Cabot and his financial partner, the Boston Brahmin.
“Do it,” instructed Sarge without hesitation. “Make sure they have adequate support as well. I’ll deal with the fallout from Beijing. We have U.S. nationals in Taiwan who may need to be evacuated in light of the recent unrest.”
“They’ll claim that using a destroyer to evacuate citizens is overkill,” said Donald.
“Let them cry about it,” Sarge shot back. “I want them to know we’re paying attention.”
“Yes, sir, Mr. President,” said Brad as he quickly sent a message
to his aides. “But, sir, if this is the start of something bigger, the destroyer won’t be enough to fend off an assault by the PLA.”
“Understood. We’ll see what type of response this maneuver elicits,” said Sarge, who then turned his attention back to their new attendees. “While she’s here, and we have the benefit of Mr. Chen as well, I’d like to get a little background on our past dealings with China when they threaten Taiwan. Ms. Walton, and Brad too, can China invade Taiwan? Has it ever come close?”
Ms. Walton looked to Brad, who gestured for her to go first. “Mr. President, despite our continued defense of Taiwan, in the past, China has demonstrated a willingness to apply military pressure when it can. China’s ongoing military modernization has greatly enhanced the PLA’s capabilities, but our models are unclear as to whether they could both seize and occupy Taiwan militarily.”
“I recall that twenty years ago China proved they could scare Taiwan,” interjected Sarge. “They strategically fired missiles, effectively bracketing the island. My recollection regarding those missile threats is that they had several unintended consequences. First, it proved that Taiwan would stand firm. Second, it caused the Clinton administration to bolster its monitoring of the region and defense of Taiwan. Third, the Chinese proved they could punish Taiwan using missile and air strikes in a way that could inflict a lot of damage. But they may have realized without political views on the island changing, they could never effectively control the Taiwanese.”
“May I add something?” asked Chen.
“Please,” Sarge replied.
“The 1996 event that you describe was not coupled with any other strategies. In the current situation, you have an interesting combination of unrest among the people plus the added complication of the power grid potentially collapsing. It’s straight out of Moscow’s playbook.”
“Georgia, Estonia, and Ukraine,” interjected Sarge.
“Exactly, Mr. President,” said Chen. “The only difference thus far is the military component. In each of the incidents you mentioned, the Russians had amassed troops at the borders of the target countries. To my knowledge, thus far, the Chinese haven’t made any hostile military overtures. Am I correct?”
All eyes in the room looked in Brad’s direction. “That’s correct. The Chinese haven’t even announced any maneuvers or war games. All appears quiet on their side of the Taiwan Strait.”
“Brad, what assets do we have in the Asia Pacific theater besides the Petersen?”
“Within the Navy’s 7th fleet area of operations, we currently have three carrier strike groups operating in the Pacific. The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Nimitz deployed there last summer. The strike group consists of three additional Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers and the Ticonderoga-class cruiser USS Princeton.”
“I assume the Ronald Reagan carrier strike group could be redeployed if necessary?” asked Sarge.
“Yes, Mr. President,” replied Brad. “It’s our only forward-deployed carrier strike group in the South China Sea. It’s currently on a four-day port visit to Singapore.”
“Damn,” muttered Donald. “That’s two thousand miles away.”
“Yes, unfortunate timing,” added Brad. “This was a planned maneuver from many months ago to what amounts to the farthest reaches of the galaxy for the Ronald Reagan from its home port in Japan.”
Sarge immediately made eye contact with Donald and shook his head. He didn’t like this added coincidence to the mix.
“Brad, what’s the status of the Petersen strike group?”
“It’s currently in the Sea of Japan, keeping an eye on rocket man in North Korea. It’s nine hundred miles away.”
“How long would it take to redeploy them to the Taiwan Strait?” asked Sarge.
“Sir, the whole fleet?” asked Brad.
“Yes.”
“The Petersen can easily cruise at thirty knots without leaving its support ships in the strike group behind. That’s twenty-eight miles per hour. If it were able to sail alone, we can have them redeployed to be within striking distance within eighteen hours.”
“How long until we can fill the East China Sea with a real show of force?”
“Thirty-six to forty-eight hours if we push the entire carrier strike group balls to the wall.”
“Mr. President, moving the Petersen strike group that close to the mainland may be seen as an act of war, especially if it isn’t part of pre-declared maneuvers,” added Ms. Walton from the State Department.
“Not to mention the fact that we are leaving a large hole between North Korea and Japan’s defense,” added Brad. “The fat kid keeps his fingers within reach of the nuclear button at all times. He might take a shot if we pull out of the Sea of Japan.”
Sarge grimaced and nodded. “All good points and duly noted. That’ll be all for now.” Sarge stood and indicated that the briefing was over.
He went for the door and Donald opened it for him. Donald leaned in to whisper in Sarge’s ear, “We need to discuss this further, don’t you think?”
“Absolutely. Get Brad and meet me in the Oval. I’ve got a phone call to make.”
Chapter 28
9:40 a.m.
The Oval Office
The White House
Washington, DC
Sarge left Donald in the doorway to the Roosevelt Room, and he dashed to Betty’s office as if he were one of Teddy’s Rough Riders. He found her speaking with the presidential historian and the White House photographer regarding Sarge’s schedule.
“Good morning, Mr. President,” said the historian as he entered the office.
Hurried, Sarge quickly greeted both men. “Hello, good morning to you both. Betty, may I have a word, please?”
“Yes, sir.”
Sarge led her into the Oval Office and whispered to her, “Did you get in touch with Malcolm?”
“I did, and he said he knew why you were calling. China, correct?”
Sarge smiled and shook his head from side to side. “This is why he’s so important to us. Get him on the secure line and patch him through as soon as possible. I’ll also have Brad and Donald with me, and we’re not to be disturbed.”
“Yes, Mr. President,” Betty said as she turned to leave.
“Oh, Betty, one more thing. I don’t need those two hovering around here today. Too much can be overheard. Send them over to the East Wing. Tell them, um, tell them how important the East Wing has been to the First Family during their years at the White House. Play up the theater, garden room, et cetera. I don’t care. Just get rid of them.”
“With pleasure. Shall I inform the First Lady?”
“No, I did promise a brief photo shoot later. I’ll explain it to her then. Now, get me Malcolm.”
Betty left and closed the door behind her, but it was immediately opened by Donald and Brad, who entered together.
“Hang on, guys, let me speak to Malcolm first,” said Sarge.
“I knew you’d employ our other intelligence assets,” said Donald.
Sarge nodded as the phone rang. He settled into his chair and answered.
“Malcolm, I gather you’ve seen the news out of Taiwan. What have you heard from our back-channel sources?”
Sarge listened intently as Malcolm Lowe provided him the information he’d learned in the last hour. Occasionally, Sarge would break in with a question, but for the most part, he absorbed the intelligence and then thanked Malcolm for his help before he spoke up.
“They’re a wily bunch,” quipped Sarge as he exhaled, allowing some stress to leave his body. He rolled his head around his neck, allowing several audible pops and cracks to be heard.
“What has Malcolm learned?” asked Donald.
“Drawing on his own State Department experience, he agrees with us that the China-Taiwan relationship is structurally unstable and potentially explosive. When Taiwan’s president recently stated she would avoid formally declaring their independence from the PRC, she added it was only on the gro
unds that such an announcement was unnecessary given that Taiwan was already a sovereign nation in her eyes.”
“How is that different from their previously stated positions?” asked Brad.
“It’s not, really,” Sarge started to reply, “except in this respect. Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party is the closest thing the PRC has seen to its own Communist rule in many decades. They considered her election to be an opening to bring Taiwan into the fold. By that statement, and the agreement to accept the arms deal from us, Beijing sees their window of opportunity closing.”
“Do you think they’re making a move? Is that what this is all about?” asked Donald.
“We can’t rule it out,” said Sarge. “Brad, could you imagine any worse timing to send the Reagan to Singapore?”
“We only did it because the Petersen would be there to fill the void,” said Brad defensively.
“No, don’t get me wrong. I’m not questioning the decision. I’m simply pointing out three seemingly unrelated events that are starting to coalesce into subterfuge. With our carrier groups spread out, we couldn’t react quickly enough to a military incursion by the Chinese. We have to make up between a thousand and two thousand miles to mount the necessary defense. Their military bases are a hundred miles across the strait.”
“But there’s no indication of a military buildup on their part,” interrupted Brad.
“That’s the puzzling aspect of all of this. Malcolm will explore this issue further, but he raised another point. A military incursion is unnecessary if they use their nukes.”
With that suggestion, both Brad and Donald rose out of the seats they’d just taken moments ago.
“They wouldn’t dare!” asserted Donald.
“The world would condemn it and we’d immediately respond in kind,” argued Brad.
“Maybe, but perhaps they’re underestimating my resolve because I’m a lame-duck president. Besides, I don’t necessarily agree with Malcolm.”
