“Let’s begin. This is mainly about China, but we will do some current odds and ends as well.” He opened a loose-leaf binder to the agenda. Reading aloud, he ticked off the business at hand. “China: strategic assessment and then Chinese missiles in Islamyah, MacIntyre, IAC; bombings in Bahrain, Peters, National Counterterrorism Center; Bright Star Exercise, General Burns, and then you wanted to raise a restricted item, Henry?” The National Security Advisor looked above his half-glasses at the Secretary of Defense, who nodded back.
Like Deputy Secretary of State Rose Cohen, MacIntyre was also standing in for his bosses, Sol Rubenstein at the IAC and Anthony Giambi, the Director of National Intelligence, both of whom had begun skipping more and more of the contentious sessions. Rusty had, therefore, briefed the Principals Committee many times before. The PC, as it was known, was all the National Security Council members except for the President and Vice President. If the national security departments and agencies made up one big conglomerate, then the PC was their board of directors.
“Okay, first, the summary of the latest intelligence estimate on China, a briefing from the Intelligence Analysis Center, Mr. MacIntyre,” the National Security Advisor intoned, sounding as though he were chairing someone’s Ph.D. oral exam.
As MacIntyre opened his briefing book, a wooden panel receded into the wall, revealing a large plasma screen. On it flashed the first slide of his briefing, “China Emboldened by Economic Power.” He began, “The stunning economic growth that China experienced over the last decade has enabled it to modernize its cities, create a domestic automobile industry that is now successfully exporting here, develop its own impressive technological research capability, and deploy a potent, although smaller, military.” Pictures of the Beijing Olympics venues, the Gwangju skyline, and a research park appeared on the screen, followed by charts showing China’s dramatic economic growth.
“With this progress has come the usual downsides of modernization, including social disruption, particularly in rural areas and in the old industrial cities, industrial and vehicular air pollution, and, most important, a growth in their oil and gas requirements. As you can see from this chart, China is now a close second to the United States in oil and gas imports. It may surpass us in the next two years. They are still well below us in electricity generated per capita, so we can expect the import curve to continue up as they will need more gas to generate higher amounts of electricity.
“This makes China dependent, again, on Russia and the former Soviet states in central Asia, from which they get the bulk of their oil and gas imports. Intelligence sources report that the Chinese leadership does not like that dependence and is seeking to diversify its sources. That may be why we see their new presence in Islamyah, which I will get to in a minute.” MacIntyre realized he had their rapt attention.
As Rusty was about to launch into the military brief, Treasury Secretary Fulton Winters seemed to awaken and broke the trance Rusty had induced on the Principals. Winters usually stopped rolling his tie up and down long enough to deliver one delphic pronouncement per meeting.
“Usually people talk about the Chinese military threat to America,” Winters began. “There really isn’t one. The Chinese economy is tied completely to ours. We are their market. Now, it’s true that they hold most of our government debt through purchases of T-notes and, theoretically, they could sell them or stop buying them. That would spike inflation here and probably burst the real estate bubble. But they won’t”—Winters smiled—“because an economic divorce would hurt them much more than it would us.”
No one commented. Winters returned to rolling his tie.
Rusty continued, “Well, actually, one of the more surprising strategic developments has been the growth of the Chinese navy. For decades, they had utilized Soviet castoffs and small, lowtechnology coastal ships such as frigates and destroyers. Then they bought some modern cruisers and primitive aircraft carriers from Ukraine and Russia. Now, within the last five years, they have put into service three modern, indigenously designed aircraft carriers with strike and fighter aircraft, the Zheng He, the Hung Bao, and the Zhou Man. They also built a port at Gwadar in Pakistan, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
“They have also launched their own air defense cruisers and nuclear-powered submarines. The visit of their Zhou Man carrier battle group to Sydney last year gave us a good chance to take a closeup look in many ways, and these are impressive ships,” MacIntyre said, showing photographs of the Chinese ships at port in Australia.
“Zhou Man sounds like something my fourteen-year-old son would say,” General Burns joked.
“Actually, General, Zhou Man was a Chinese admiral whose fleet explored Australia and much more around 1420,” MacIntyre replied. “The other carriers are also named for admirals from the 1400s whose fleets explored the Pacific and Indian oceans. The message in the names is that the Chinese navy once ruled the world’s seas supreme and may again. But enough about the Chinese navy: to more immediate matters . . .” MacIntyre said, hitting the clicker that brought up a new image on the flat screen.
It was a stunningly vivid picture of the missile base in Islamyah. Rusty began his presentation. “IAC analysts discovered this new Chinese-made missile complex in Islamyah two days ago. It appears ready to go operational. In 1987 the Saudis secretly acquired Chinese medium-range missiles. Confronted by the Reagan administration, they pledged that the missiles would not be nuclear-armed. The CEP of those missiles was such that they could have done little damage to anyone, except perhaps their own launch crews who handled the liquid fuel in the aboveground launch facilities.”
The National Security Advisor, who was reading his briefing book, looked up above his glasses. “CEP?”
“Circular error probability, Billy. It’s their accuracy,” the Secretary of Defense chided. “Go on, go on,” he said, flicking his wrist at MacIntyre.
“Now, two decades later, replacement missiles show up. Some mobile missiles on trucks and some silo-based, solid-fuel, highly accurate. In the Chinese strategic forces, they carry nuclear weapons, three per missile. Intelligence indicates that there are twenty-three hundred Chinese personnel at the main base, in the middle of the Empty Quarter. We estimate twenty-four missiles on launchers, probably some reloads.
“Beyond their military value, this secret deployment indicates that the Chinese have a much closer relationship with the revolutionary regime in Riyadh than we had earlier estimated. Although the missiles were originally ordered by the al Sauds, the delivery and deployment went ahead in secret after the revolution. We believe that the cash-strapped Islamyah government, suffering from our sanctions, is paying in oil.
“There is no indication yet from a variety of special intelligence programs and sources, nothing that indicates the presence of any nuclear weapons. We estimate that China would be reluctant to provide such warheads in violation of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty and that the accuracy of these weapons is such that...”
“Bullshit, MacIntyre!” Secretary of Defense Conrad interrupted, leaning forward once again, his scowling face and dark eyes focused like a laser on Rusty. “What the fuck do you think they bought these things for, Chinese fireworks for Ramadan?” The Situation Room was suddenly still; all eyes were on the SECDEF, who continued his tirade.
“I’m telling you that these al Qaeda murderers in Riyadh are out to get nuclear capability. Maybe Beijing won’t give them the bomb, maybe. But they can get it from the nuts in North Korea or their al Qaeda East buddies in Pakistan. You mean to tell me those guys in Islamabad won’t sell their ideological brethren a few of their bombs? Hell, A. Q. Khan was doing it a decade ago out of the Pakistani larder.” No one spoke as Conrad shook his head and pursed his lips. “IAC just doesn’t understand the threat these regimes pose.”
Finally, MacIntyre raised his hand with two fingers up and spoke slowly but forcefully. “I disagree, for two reasons. First, these weapons were clearly ordered by our friends the al Sauds while they were in
power. The lead time is such that they could not have been both ordered and delivered in the year since the Sauds were thrown out. Second, only a Chinese-made warhead could be mated to these missiles. You can’t just take a big Pakistani aerial bomb and fit it on a CSS-27. These things are precision weapons. I think for now what we have is a very accurate, high-explosive delivery system, a blockbuster in the original sense of the term, a weapon that has been brought in to deter Iran by bringing downtown Tehran under range of conventionally armed missiles.”
The Secretary of Defense emitted a sound, “Pfffft,” as he flipped through his briefing book.
“Well then, thank you, Russell. Now the bombings in Bahrain. NCTC?”
National Counter Terrorism Center Director Sean Peters described the techniques used in the attack on the hotels in Bahrain, the effects, and a possible culprit. “Most likely Iran’s Qods Force, or Jerusalem Force, a combination covert-operations and special-forces group that has been active in bombings in Bahrain and elsewhere in the Gulf for years,” Peters concluded.
“Nonsense! Dr. Caulder, I despair of these supposed intelligence briefings. It wasn’t the Iranians.” This time the SECDEF actually pounded the table. “Ron, tell ’em. After all, they were trying to kill you.”
From the back bench behind Secretary Conrad, Under Secretary Ronald Kashigian cleared his throat and stood. The thick glasses and buzz-cut hair made Kashigian look like a college basketball coach. “Well, I was in the hotel as it was attacked. And our intelligence people assume I was the target.” Red was rising into his ears. “They, the experts in the region, say this was definitely the Islamygians... Riyadh.” Kashigian sat back down.
“We are convinced, Billy,” the Secretary of Defense said, stabbing his finger in the air at the National Security Advisor, “that this al Qaeda regime in Riyadh is sending a message to King Hamad in Bahrain to kick the Americans out, or else they will destabilize the place with bombings like these. These people are not satisfied with just their fanatical caliphate in Saudi Arabia; they want to export their revolution throughout the Gulf !”
Dr. Caulder, a former University of Chicago professor who had stepped in as National Security Advisor six months ago after his predecessor had suddenly died of a stroke, asked meekly, “Who do the Bahrainis think did it?”
The NCTC Director stood at his seat along the wall, said, “They don’t know, Dr. Caulder,” and sat down.
“Well then, moving on, maybe we can agree on, what is it, Exercise Bright Star? General Burnside.”
“Burns, sir.” The handsome and relaxed Air Force four-star had spent a career flying and was now the second most senior military officer in the United States, the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “Bright Star is a CENTCOM exercise series with the Gypoes, ah, the Egyptians, going back over twenty-five years.
“It lapsed for a while and in recent years has only been carried out on a small scale, but now with the revolution in Saudi, Cairo is interested in a show of force in the Red Sea, to demonstrate to Riyadh that Egypt has the full military support of the United States, just in case the Islamyah government is thinking about exporting their revolution to Egypt.
“We plan the largest amphibious operation in recent history, the largest airborne drop, and one of the largest bombing exercises we have ever had. Three MAUs, Marine Amphibious Units, will go ashore at three points along the Egyptian Red Sea coast, about fifteen thousand men.” He used a laser pointer to put a red dot on the flat screen. “Two brigades of the 82nd Airborne will drop in behind the beachhead, about nine thousand personnel. The target areas will be softened up by Air Force B-1s and B-2s from CONUS and by Navair from the Bush and the Reagan battle groups in the Red Sea.
“The Marines and Airborne will link up with the Egyptian First and Second Armored Divisions and then move up the Nile Valley in a combined operation to demonstrate interoperability. All of this will be done in a way that allows the folks in Riyadh to see on TV and through their sources what the awesome firepower of the United States of America can do.” General Burns turned off his laser.
“Any questions of General Burns? No? Then thank you all. If I could ask everybody to leave except the principal or acting principal from each agency,” Dr. Caulder said.
“I’ll meet you in the car, Susan.” MacIntyre turned from the table and whispered to his analyst, who had been back-benching behind him.
After the shuffling had settled down, National Security Advisor Caulder turned to the Secretary of Defense. “What was it, Henry, that you wanted to talk about in a smaller group?”
Tall and broad-shouldered, Conrad, dressed in what appeared to be an expensive double-breasted suit, radiated overflowing energy, fidgeting in his seat. “Well, it’s just very sensitive, you know, Billy,” Conrad said in a softer tone than he had used to the full house. “The reason I was so adamant, MacIntyre, I’m sorry, is that we have sources, really good sources, inside the PLA, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.
“These sources tell us that there was an order given to the PLA and its navy to prepare to send, secretly, a division of infantry to Saudi using roll-on/roll-off cargo ships and, get this, Air China 777s. The movement is to be protected by a Chinese navy expeditionary force, including two of the new aircraft carriers, accompanied by their cruisers with their new antiship missile, and their subs.
“The naval movement will be couched as a show-the-flag thing, with port calls in Perth, Pakistan, and then in the Saudis’ ports.
“ ’Course it will scare the shit out of the Gulfies, I mean the smaller Gulf states, and Iran and drive the Indians bonkers, which is good for us, but all in all this is a bad deal. Red Chinese infantry in Saudi. Their fleet in the Indian Ocean for the first time.
“See, this is why I don’t think it’s impossible that they will deliver the nuclear warheads to accompany MacIntyre’s missiles. When there are lots of Chinese troops in country, they can deliver the nuclear warheads for the missiles because they think we won’t bomb a bunch of Chinese troops.
“They are bucking up this I-Salamie regime when it is new and weak, just to get long-term access to all the oil they got there.
“Here we are depleting the strategic oil reserve, freezing from Michigan to Maine, because we sanctioned Saudi oil. Paying top dollar in the spot market, where we are probably buying the Saudi oil anyway but getting it from middlemen. We’re pumping Alaska dry, dealing with the very people who told us to get out of Iraq, and the Chinkos are going to lock up Saudi oil in long-term deals protected by their goddamn army!”
Once again, the Secretary had silenced the Situation Room.
“When is this supposed to happen?” Deputy Secretary Cohen asked meekly.
“Sometime in March,” the SECDEF answered without any hesitation. “We may have to confront them, block them from getting their troop ships into the Gulf.”
Deputy Secretary Cohen had had enough and slapped her hand on the conference table. “There is absolutely no legal authority for you to do that, Henry. It would be an act of war to embargo military shipments, like the Cuban Missile Crisis, which almost ended in a nuclear war. What the hell are you after, a war with China, a nuclear war?” she asked.
“There is a draft finding, which I wrote,” Conrad responded. “It’s now on the President’s desk. It will order us to overthrow those murdering, fanatic pretenders in Riyadh. We could add the naval embargo to that decision package. We need to act before the Chinese take over. The Chinese will back down in the face of firm U.S. action. They know we could sink their entire fleet in an hour. And the Indians would help us, too.” Secretary Conrad slammed closed his briefing book.
“Dr. Caulder, I know of no such finding,” said Cohen, almost quivering with anger as she turned with indignation to the National Security Advisor.
“That’s because you’re not cleared for it, dear,” Conrad sneered as he got up from the table and pushed his way out of the Situation Room.
The National Security Advisor tu
rned to Rose Cohen and said, “It’s not under active consideration, Rose. That’s why he’s so mad.” Dr. Caulder then quickly followed Secretary Conrad out of the Situation Room, leaving his briefing book on the table and calling, “Henry, wait up.”
“Well, I guess that means this meeting is over,” Rusty said to no one in particular. Kashigian, who had stayed when the other backbenchers left, brushed by MacIntyre, bumping his shoulder. “Don’t get in the way of this, MacIntyre. Otherwise you and your boss Rubenstein will be on the wrong end of history, if you know what I mean.”
“I have no idea what any of what you just said means, but it sounded like you threatened me,” MacIntyre said in a loud voice so that others could hear.
“Just swim in your own lane, okay?” Kashigian said, and he spun about as he left the Sit Room, moving quickly to catch up with the SECDEF and the motorcade waiting outside.
The Scorpion's Gate Page 4
