14. These figures represent the numbers of deaths by assault. World Health Organization Mortality Database, http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/.
15. These federal interventions, which included removing governors and disbanding legislatures, could be initiated two ways. The president could act in concert with the Duma and the courts, or he could act on his own if he had the support of the general prosecutor’s office.
16. For those unfamiliar with these events, Putin’s Russia has a history of supporting separatist groups in neighboring countries, particularly former members of the Soviet Union. In Georgia, to Russia’s south, Russian support for the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia led to conflict in August 2008. Georgian officials played a role in provoking the violence, but the small country was clearly outmatched in the intense fighting that followed. A peace deal formally ended the conflict after several days, but diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia were severed, tensions remain high, and the Georgian government seems further away from ever reclaiming its breakaway regions. A similar story has unfolded in Ukraine. In February 2014, antigovernment protests forced the pro-Russian president to flee, and Russia responded by authorizing a stealth invasion of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. It formally annexed Crimea shortly thereafter, in what is perhaps the greatest affront to the law-based international order in Europe since World War II. Russian-backed separatists have since expanded the conflict to several provinces of eastern Ukraine, which remain deadlocked and in turmoil, with no solution in sight.
Chapter 3: Martial Law and the Origins of Polish Democracy
1. “Zycie Warszawy Scores Solidarity Declarations,” Zycie Warszawy, December 2, 1981, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report, Eastern Europe, FBIS-EEU-81-235, December 8, 1981, p. G10, infoweb.newsbank.com/iw-search/we/HistArchive/?p_product=FBISX&p_theme=fbis&p_nbid=U68N52XQMTQ4NTE5ODIwOC4zMTkxNTc6MToxNDoxNzEuNjYuMjA4LjEzNA&p_action=doc&p_docref=v2:11C33B0D5F860D98@FBISX-1256BBA5C44C47E0@2444947-1256BBAF0A60D088-1256BBAF2A5EF838.
2. There were several other parties as well—indeed, there were twenty-nine in 1991. Some catered to specific industries (such as the newly re-formed Polish Peasant Party); others were regionally targeted (such as the Movement for Silesian Autonomy); while others focused on specific issues (such as the Women Alliance Against Hardship). The political field consolidated in the following years, and in 2011 only five parties made it into parliament.
3. Such was the case with Croatia in 2005, when its accession talks were postponed over concerns about Croatian authorities’ willingness to pursue fugitives accused of war crimes. The Croats had to take concrete steps to put those concerns to rest, and by the end of the year they had apprehended the top fugitive. But even so, when the talks finally began, Croatia still had other issues to address, ranging from judicial reforms to anticorruption measures, before it was to be admitted as a member.
4. Democratic peace theory holds that democratic states do not go to war with other democratic states. The concept was first formulated by Immanuel Kant, who argued in a 1795 essay that “perpetual peace” could be achieved once every state had a republican constitution, because “if the consent of the citizens is required in order to decide that war should be declared… they would be very cautious in commencing such a poor game, decreeing for themselves all the calamities of war.” By the second half of the twentieth century, democracy had taken hold in enough countries to test Kant’s theory, which became the subject of substantial academic research. Of all the theories in international relations, few if any have more empirical support. For more, see Michael Brown, Sean Lynn-Jones, and Steven Miller, Debating the Democratic Peace (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1996).
5. Anna Grzymala-Busse, “Why Would Poland Make Its Already Strict Abortion Law Draconian?,” Washington Post, April 18, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/04/18/why-would-poland-make-its-already-strict-abortion-law-draconian. Additionally, see her book Nations Under God: How Churches Use Moral Authority to Influence Policy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2015).
Chapter 4: Ukraine: “A Made‑Up Country”?
1. As quoted in Svetlana Alexievich, Voices from Chernobyl: The Oral History of a Nuclear Disaster, trans. Keith Gessen (New York: Picador, 2006), 32.
2. Paul R. Magocsi, A History of Ukraine: The Land and Its Peoples (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2010), 722.
3. Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, “Widespread Campaign Irregularities Observed in Ukrainian Presidential Election,” November 1, 2004, www.osce.org/odihr/elections/56894.
Chapter 5: Kenya: “Save Our Beloved Country”
1. Charles Hornsby, Kenya: A History Since Independence (London: I. B. Tauris, 2012), 30.
2. Ibid., 47–48.
3. Ibid., 60.
4. This was the topic of Jendayi’s doctoral dissertation. She argued that the Kenyan police and other non-military armed forces created prior to independence (1952–60) formed the basis of a counterweight to the military and granted civilian leaders experience in security affairs that promoted stable civil-military relations and civilian control over the military after independence in 1963. See Jendayi Elizabeth Frazer, “Sustaining Civilian Control: Armed Counterweights in Regime Stability in Africa” (PhD diss., Stanford University, March 1994).
5. Hornsby, History Since Independence, 96.
6. “Kenya: GDP Per Capita (Current US$)” (World Bank, 2016), http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=KE&view=chart.
7. The “Washington consensus” refers to a set of ten free-market economic policy reforms widely advocated by Washington-based agencies (such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the U.S. Treasury Department) in promoting economic expansion and trade liberalization in developing nations. The original tenets were outlined in the late 1980s and attempted to describe changing global norms for development policy.
8. Jane Perlez, “U.S. Forgives Portion of Kenya’s Loan Debt,” New York Times, January 10, 1990, www.nytimes.com/1990/01/10/business/us-forgives-portion-of-kenya-s-loan-debt.html.
9. Hornsby, History Since Independence, 472.
10. “Five More Reported Killed in Kenya Unrest,” Associated Press, July 10, 1990, www.nytimes.com/1990/07/10/world/5-more-reported-killed-in-kenya-unrest.html.
11. Jane Perlez, “Rising Political Discontent in Kenya Is Tarnishing Its Progressive Image,” New York Times, July 29, 1990, www.nytimes.com/1990/07/29/world/rising-political-discontent-in-kenya-is-tarnishing-its-progressive-image.html?pagewanted=all.
12. Hornsby, History Since Independence, 481.
13. Jane Perlez, “Stung by Protest Over Crackdown, Kenya Calls U.S. Envoy a Racist,” New York Times, November 19, 1991, www.nytimes.com/1991/11/19/world/stung-by-protest-over-crackdown-kenya-calls-us-envoy-a-racist.html.
14. Hornsby, History Since Independence, 486–87.
15. Jane Perlez, “Kenya, a Land That Thrived, Is Now Caught Up in Fear of Ethnic Civil War,” New York Times, May 3, 1992, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/05/03/world/kenya-a-land-that-thrived-is-now-caught-up-in-fear-of-ethnic-civil-war.html.
16. James C. McKinley Jr., “Sworn for 5th Term, Kenya’s President Vows to Fight Corruption and Poverty,” New York Times, January 7, 1998, www.nytimes.com/1998/01/06/world/sworn-for-5th-term-kenya-s-president-vows-to-fight-corruption-and-poverty.html.
17. Marc Lacey, “Kenya Joyful as Moi Yields Power to New Leader,” New York Times, December 31, 2002, www.nytimes.com/2002/12/31/world/kenya-joyful-as-moi-yields-power-to-new-leader.html.
18. Marc Lacey, “Kenya’s Judiciary Thrown into Disarray by Inquiry,” New York Times, October 23, 2003, www.nytimes.com/2003/10/23/international/africa/kenyas-judiciary-thrown-into-disarray-by-inquiry.html.
19. Marc Lacey, “Debate on Kenya’s Future: Serious Talk and Fruit Tossing,” New York Times, October 16, 2005, http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/16/world/africa/debate-on-kenyas-future-serious-talk-and-fruit-
tossing.html.
20. Marc Lacey, “Debate on Kenya’s Future: Serious Talk and Fruit Tossing,” New York Times, October 16, 2005, www.nytimes.com/2005/10/16/world/africa/debate-on-kenyas-future-serious-talk-and-fruit-tossing.html.
21. Marc Lacey, “Kenya Government Opponents Reject Protest Ban,” New York Times, November 29, 2005, www.nytimes.com/2005/11/29/world/africa/kenya-government-opponents-reject-protest-ban.html.
22. Jeffrey Gettleman, “Turmoil Grows in Kenya, with More Than 100 Dead,” New York Times, December 31, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/world/africa/31cnd-kenya.html.
23. Jeffrey Gettleman, “Kenya Crisis Worsens as Opposition Cools to Talk,” New York Times, January 9, 2008, www.nytimes.com/2008/01/09/world/africa/09kenya.html.
24. “Kenyan Leaders in Call for Peace,” BBC News, April 24, 2008, news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7364273.stm.
25. Jeffrey Gettleman, “Kenyan Court Upholds Election of Candidate Facing Charges in The Hague,” New York Times, March 30, 2013, www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/world/africa/in-tense-kenya-court-upholds-election-results.html.
26. “Kenya: President Kenyatta’s Inauguration Speech,” April 9, 2013, allafrica.com/stories/201304091200.html.
Chapter 6: Colombia: The Era of Democratic Security
1. Rojas’s flight was the result of strong civilian opposition and intricate and difficult negotiation between the leaders of the Liberal Party, Alberto Lleras Camargo, and the Conservative leader, Laureano Gómez, who worked out the Agreement of Benidorm, which was signed on July 24, 1956, and was followed in March 1957 by the Declaration of Sitges. It defined the rules of the Frente Nacional (“National Front”), which sought to outline a structure that would allow the country to be ruled peacefully again. It was agreed that the parties would take alternate periods in the presidency during four terms: first Liberal, then Conservative, then Liberal, and then Conservative (although this arrangement ultimately continued longer). Half of the cabinet had to be Liberal and half Conservative. Half of the governors had to be Liberal and half Conservative. The parties worked to oust Rojas and set up a temporary junta while elections took place. The junta respected the terms.
2. Declaration of Sitges, July 20, 1957, http://college.cengage.com/history/world/keen/latin_america/8e/assets/students/sources/pdfs/119declaration_sitges.pdf.
3. Natalia Springer, “Colombia: Internal Displacement—Policies and Problems,” United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Status Determination and Protection Information Section, June 2006, 1, www.refworld.org/pdfid/44bf463a4.pdf.
4. Juan Forero, “Administration Shifts Focus on Colombia Aid,” New York Times, February 6, 2002, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/06/world/administration-shifts-focus-on-colombia-aid.html.
5. “Reaction of Sen. Patrick Leahy to the White House Budget for Fiscal Year 2003 (Including Budget Highlights),” press release, Office of Senator Patrick Leahy, February 4, 2002, http://lobby.la.psu.edu/_107th/123_Farm_Bill/Congressional_Statements/Senate/S_Leahy_020402.htm.
6. Harvey F. Kline, Historical Dictionary of Colombia (Lanham, MD: Scarecrow Press, 2012), 515.
7. Álvaro Uribe, Interview with Charles Nicas, May 23, 2016.
8. All the figures in this paragraph come from the World Bank and are measured in 2013 dollars.
9. Claudia Palacios, “Colombians Debate Third Term for President,” CNN, December 4, 2008, http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/12/04/colombia.president.
10. Andre Viollaz, “UN to Monitor End of Colombia-FARC Conflict,” Agence France-Presse, January 26, 2016, https://www.yahoo.com/news/un-monitor-end-colombia-rebel-conflict-resolution-214246221.html?ref=gs.
Chapter 7: The Middle East: Can Democracy Exist in a Cauldron?
1. “Lebanon,” CIA World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/le.html.
2. This data point comes from the 2016 edition of an annual survey conducted by Burson-Marsteller. For more, see the Arab Youth Survey 2016, www.arabyouthsurvey.com.
3. To write the report, the United Nations Development Program commissioned an independent team of experts from the Arab world. Nader Fergany, an Egyptian economist, served as the lead author of the report, and he worked with a collection of other Arab scholars, including: M. Abido, A. A. Ali, N. Ali, M. M. Al-Imam, M. Al-Khalidi, F. Al-Allaghi, M. K. Al-Sayed, M. Badawi, G. Corm, M. Dewidar, I. Elbadawi, A. El-Bayoumi, O. El-Kholy, F. ElZanaty, M. Amin Faris, Salim Jahan, T. Kanaan, A. Mahjoub, S. Morsy, N. Mosa’ad, M. A. Nassar, S. Ben Nefissa, H. Rashad, M. Gawad Redha, F. Sarkis, M. Za’alouk, A. Zahlan and H. Zurayk.
4. “How the Arabs Compare: Arab Human Development Report 2002,” Middle East Quarterly 9, no. 4 (Fall 2002): 59–67, http://www.meforum.org/513/how-the-arabs-compare.
5. Condoleezza Rice, No Higher Honor: A Memoir of My Time in Washington (New York: Crown, 2011), 166ff.
6. “Iraq’s Continuing Program for Weapons of Mass Destruction,” U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, October 2002; Rice, No Higher Honor, 166–71.
7. Thomas Wagner, “Iraq Vice-President’s Sister Gunned Down,” Associated Press, April 27, 2006.
8. The PRT model was initially developed in Afghanistan in 2002, with the same goal of improving local governance, and it was adapted to Iraq in 2005.
9. Haider Ala Hamoudi, “Post-War Iraq: Slow and Steady Progress,” Jurist, December 13, 2011, www.jurist.org/forum/2011/12/haider-hamoudi-iraq-withdrawal.php.
10. Bob Gates, interview with Bret Baier, “Fox News Reporting: Rising Threats, Shrinking Military,” Fox News, May 10, 2016, video.foxnews.com/v/4887449378001.
11. Dr. Tahani Alsandook, Government of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education, presentation at the NAFSA 2016 Annual Conference, June 1, 2016, https://www.nafsa.org/_/File/_/iem_spotlight_aug16_iraqihighered.pdf.
12. Hafez Ghanem, “The Role of Micro and Small Enterprises in Egypt’s Economic Transition,” Brookings Institution, 2013, 5, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/01-egypt-economic-transition-ghanem.pdf.
13. Paolo Verme et al., Inside Inequality in the Arab Republic of Egypt: Facts and Perceptions Across People, Time, and Space (World Bank, 2014), 47, http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/egypt-inequality-book.pdf.
14. Michael Slackman, “In Egypt, Mixed Views of Politics with a Field of Choices,” New York Times, September 4, 2005, http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/04/world/africa/in-egypt-mixed-views-of-politics-with-a-field-of-choices.html.
15. Condoleezza Rice, “Remarks with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Ali Aboul Gheit After Meeting,” State Department, February 21, 2006, https://2001-2009.state.gov/secretary/rm/2006/61811.htm.
16. Middle East Monitor, as quoted in “British Foreign Policy and the ‘Arab Spring,’” UK House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, 2012, 17, http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmfaff/80/80.pdf.
17. Sharan Grewal, “Why Tunisia Didn’t Follow Egypt’s Path,” Washington Post, February 4, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/02/04/why-egypt-didnt-follow-tunisias-path.
18. Marina Ottaway, “Egypt and Tunisia: Democratic Transitions and the Problem of Power,” Woodrow Wilson Center, April 18, 2014, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/egypt-and-tunisia-democratic-transitions-and-the-problem-power.
19. Sarah Drury, “Education: The Key to Women’s Empowerment in Saudi Arabia?,” Middle East Institute, July 30, 2015, http://www.mei.edu/content/article/education-key-women%E2%80%99s-empowerment-saudi-arabia.
20. Jonathan Chew, “Women Are Taking Over Saudi Arabia’s Workforce,” Fortune, August 10, 2015, http://fortune.com/2015/08/10/women-saudi-arabia/.
21. In the Spanish case, King Juan Carlos helped usher in democratic rule after the death of longtime dictator Francisco Franco in 1975. The king assumed power in the aftermath of Franco’s death and worked with rival groups from across the spectrum to facilitate free elections in 1977 and a new constitution in 1978. Spain’s success in transitioning from dictatorship to democr
acy without civil war or violence was unprecedented at the time.
22. The disarmament and demobilization process is a standard part of peacebuilding efforts and has been undertaken in a variety of contexts as a prerequisite to electoral participation, including in Afghanistan, Northern Ireland, and Colombia.
23. For more, see Madeleine K. Albright and Stephen J. Hadley, Middle East Strategy Task Force: Final Report of the Co-Chairs (Atlantic Council, November 2016), http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/MEST_Final_Report_web_1130.pdf.
24. West Bank and Gaza: Towards Economic Sustainability of a Future Palestinian State: Promoting Private Sector–Led Growth (World Bank, April 2012), 39, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWESTBANKGAZA/Resources/GrowthStudyEngcorrected.pdf.
25. Jacob J. Lew, “Remarks of Secretary Jacob J. Lew at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy 30th Anniversary Gala,” April 29, 2015, https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl0040.aspx.
Chapter 8: Are Authoritarians So Bad?
1. “Afghanistan’s Election: Taliban? What Taliban?” Economist, October 14, 2004, www.economist.com/node/3291641.
2. “Afghanistan Goes to Polls,” Associated Press, October 10, 2004, www.thehindu.com/2004/10/10/stories/2004101004500100.htm.
3. Ahmed Rashid, Descent into Chaos: The US and the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia (New York: Penguin Books, 2009), 260.
4. Ibid.
5. John F. Burns, “For a Battered Populace, a Day of Civic Passion,” New York Times, January 31, 2005, www.nytimes.com/2005/01/31/world/middleeast/for-a-battered-populace-a-day-of-civic-passion.html.
6. This figure from Chinese scholar Sun Liping, whose most recent data is from 2010, appears in a recent book by my Stanford colleague Anja Manuel: This Brave New World: India, China, and the United States (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2016), 191.
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