by John Bolton;
6 See “A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a Shared Vision,” November 3, 2019, https://www.state.gov/a-free-and-open-indo-pacific-advancing-a-shared-vision/.
7 See Department of Justice, “ZTE Corporation Agrees to Plead Guilty and Pay Over $430.4 Million for Violating U.S. Sanctions by Sending U.S.-Origin Items to Iran,” March 7, 2017, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/zte-corporation-agrees-plead-guilty-and-pay-over-4304-million-violating-us-sanctions-sending.
8 See David J. Lynch, “U.S. companies banned from selling to China’s ZTE telecom maker,” April 16, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/04/16/u-s-companies-banned-from-selling-tochinas-zte-telecom-maker/.
9 Hassett later stated publicly that “the actions we’ve taken against China have had a big negative effect on their markets and their economy but very little effect… here in the U.S.” See Emily McCormick, “White House economist: Tariffs are hurting China much more than the US,” September 20, 2018, https://www.finance.yahoo.com/news/white-house-economist-kevin-hassett-need-fair-reciprocal-trade-155519844.html.
10 See Karen Freifeld, “Exclusive: U.S. may soon claim up to $1.7 billion penalty from China’s ZTE - sources,” June 1, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-zte-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-may-soon-claim-up-to-1-7-billion-penalty-from-chinas-zte-sources-idUSKCN1IX5T2.
11 Under the existing judicial rulings orders, the court-appointed monitor will be in place observing ZTE until 2022. See Dan Strumpf, “U.S. Judge Orders China’s ZTE to Two More years of Monitoring,” October 4, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-judge-orders-chinas-zte-to-two-more-years-of-monitoring-1538634469.
12 See “Remarks by President Trump at the United Nations Security Council Briefing on Counterproliferation,” September 26, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-united-nations-security-council-briefing-counterproliferation-new-york-ny/.
13 See “Remarks by Vice President Pence on the Administration’s Policy Toward China,” October 4, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-vice-president-pence-administrations-policy-toward-china/.
14 This phrase is well-known from the thesis and eponymous title of Michael Pillsbury’s book, The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower, Griffin, reprint edition 2016.
15 See Ana Swanson and Alan Rappeport, “Trump Delays a Tariff Deadline, Citing Progress in China Trade Talks,” February 4, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/24/us/politics/us-china-trade-truce.html.
16 See “Remarks by President Trump and President Xi of the People’s Republic of China Before Bilateral Meeting, Osaka, Japan,” June 19, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-president-xi-peoples-republic-china-bilateral-meeting-osaka-japan/.
17 See note 2 above.
18 For a classic statement of this utterly misguided thinking, see George Gilder, “Huawei Is an Asset, Not a Threat,” posted at https://www.wsj.com/articles/huawei-is-an-asset-not-a-threat-11558390913.
19 The United Kingdom ultimately rejected the U.S. position. See, Adam Satariano, “Britain Defies Trump Plea to Ban Huawei from 5G Network,” January 29, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/technology/britain-huawei-5G.html.
20 See Simon Denyer, “Japan effectively bans Huawei and ZTE from government contracts, joining U.S.,” December 10, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-effectively-bans-chinas-huawei-zte-from-government-contracts-joining-us/2018/12/10/748fe98a-fc69-11e8-ba87-8c7facdf6739_story.html; and “Huawei Loses key 5G Contract in Japan to Nokia and Ericsson,” May 31, 2019, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/huawei-loses-key-5g-contract-in-japan-to-nokia-and-ericsson.
21 Ibid.
22 See Anna Fifeld and Jeanne Whalen, “Canadians detained in China after Huawei arrest have now spent a year in custody,” December 10, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/canadians-detained-in-china-after-huawei-arrest-have-now-spent-a-year-in-custody/2019/12/10/3a55cd4c-1af0-11ea-977a-15a6710ed6da_story.html.
23 See Robert Fife and Steven Chase, “Chrétien proposes cancelling Meng’s extradition case to unfreeze relations with China,” October 2, 2019, https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-chretien-suggests-huawei-executives-extradition-case-should-end/.
24 The Administration has imposed other penalties on ZTE and Huawei since I resigned, but the overall policy direction remains unclear. See, e.g., Ryan Tracy et al., “FCC Targets China’s Huawei and ZTE,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/fcc-moves-to-cut-off-huawei-zte-from-subsidies-11572289868.
25 See Echo Xie, “Chinese state media warns ‘end is coming for those attempting to disrupt Hong Kong,” September 1, 2019, https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3025284/chinese-state-media-warns-end-coming-those-attempting.
26 Although the House of Representatives has passed a bill authorizing sanctions on China relating to the Uighurs, there is no change in Trump’s opposition to such sanctions. See, Alan Rappeport and Edward Wong, “In Push for Trade Deal, Trump Administration Shelves Sanctions Over China’s Crackdown on Uighurs,” May 4, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/04/world/asia/trump-china-uighurs-trade-deal.html.
27 See John Pomfret, “Trump abandoned the Kurds in Syria. Could Taiwan be next?” https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/10/18/trump-abandoned-kurds-syria-could-taiwan-be-next/.
28 See, e.g., Josephine Ma, “Coronavirus: China’s first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17,” March 13, 2020, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back.
29 See, e.g., Javier C. Hernández, “Chinese Tycoon Who Criticized Xi’s Response to Coronavirus Has Vanished,” March 15, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/world/asia/china-ren-zhiqiang.html?searchResultPosition=2.
30 See Guy Taylor, “Surge of coronavirus lies by adversaries seeking to blame the U.S. floods web,” March 16, 2020, https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-lies-pushed-china-blame-virus-us-biowe/; and, Fred Lucas, “Coronavirus Coverup? Trump’s National Security Advisor Puts China On Notice,” March 15, 2020, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/coronavirus-coverup-trumps-national-security-advisor-puts-china-notice-132497.
31 See Ivana Kottasová and Paul P. Murphy, March 13, 2020, “Satellite images show Iran building burial pits for coronavirus victims,” https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/13/middleeast/iran-coronavirus-mass-graves-intl/index.html.
32 See Fred Imbert, “Larry Kudlow says US has contained the coronavirus and the economy is holding up nicely,” February 26, 2010, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/larry-kudlow-says-us-has-contained-the-coronavirus-and-the-economy-is-holding-up-nicely.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain.
33 See Aram Roston, Marisa Taylor, Reuters, March 11, 2020, “Exclusive: White House told federal health agency to classify coronavirus deliberations–sources,” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-secrecy-exclusive/exclusive-white-house-told-federal-health-agency-to-classify-coronavirus-deliberations-sources-idUSKBN20Y2LM.
34 See Tim Morrison, “No, the White House didn’t ‘dissolve’ its pandemic response office,” March 16, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/no-white-house-didnt-dissolve-its-pandemic-response-office/. Daniel Lippman and Meredith McGraw, “Inside the National Security Council, a rising sense of dread,” April 2, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/nsc-coronavirus-white-house-162530; and Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck, “Top administration officials said last year threat of pandemic kept them up at night,” April 3, 2020, https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/politics/kfile-officials-worried-over-pandemic-last-year/index.html.
35 A number of commentators agreed with the reorganization. See, e.g., Tom Rogan, “No, the Trump Administration didn’t weaken US biodefenses,” March 15, 2020, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/no-the-trump-administration-didnt-weaken-us-biodefenses; and Alexander Muse, March
14, 2020, “Fact check: Did Trump disband the US pandemic response team?” https://partisan.space/pandemic-team/. Fact checkers agreed that the dispute over the reorganization was a matter of opinion, not verifiable fact: Glenn Kessler and Meg Kelly, “Was the White House office for global pandemics eliminated?” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/20/was-white-house-office-global-pandemics-eliminated/, and Lori Robertson, “Dems Misconstrue Trump Budget Remarks,” https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-budget-remarks/.
36 See Alex M. Azar II, Robert R. Redfield, and Anthony S. Fauci, “On the Front lines of the Trump Administration’s Ebola Response,” November 4, 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/04/trump-administration-ebola-response-azar-redfield-fauci-congo/.
37 See “National Biodefense Strategy,” www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/National-Biodefense-Strategy.pdf.
38 See “Presidential memorandum on the Support for National Biodefense,” September 18, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-memorandum-support-national-biodefense/.
39 See “Executive Order on Modernizing Influence Vaccines in the United States to promote National Security and public health,” September 19, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-modernizing-influenza-vaccines-united-states-promote-national-security-public-health/.
40 See Eric Lipton, David A. Sanger, Maggie Haberman, Michael D. Shear, Mark Mazzetti, and Julian E. Barnes, “Despite Timely Alerts, Trump Was Slow to Act,” April 12, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html.
41 The NSC structure is now analogous to the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute for Infectious Diseases. See, usamriid.army.mil.
CHAPTER 11: CHECKING INTO THE HANOI HILTON, THEN CHECKING OUT, AND THE PANMUNJOM PLAYTIME
1 See Choe Sang-Hun, “Kim Jong-un Praises Trump’s ‘Unusual Determination’ to Hold Second Summit,” January 23, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/23/world/asia/trump-kim-jong-un-summit-korea.html?searchResultPosition=1.
2 See Gus Taylor, “Team Trump quietly filling ‘pot of gold’ encouraging Kim Jong Un to denuclearize,” posted at https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jan/28/stephen-biegun-preps-north-korea-economic-package-/.
3 See Stephen Biegun, “Remarks on DPRK at Stanford University,” https://www.state.gov/remarks-on-dprk-at-stanford-university/.
4 See John Walcott, “ ‘Willful Ignorance.’ Inside President Trump’s Troubled Intelligence Briefings,” https://time.com/5518947/donald-trump-intelligence-briefings-national-security/.
5 All of this was subsequently amply reported in numerous press sources. See, e.g., Adam Taylor, “Nukes and sanctions: What actually went wrong for Trump and Kim Jong Un,” March 1, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/03/01/nukes-sanctions-what-actually-went-wrong-trump-kim-jong-un/.
6 Trump himself expressly mentioned Yongbyon in subsequent press discussions. See, e.g., Reuters, “Trump says he and North Korea’s Kim discussed dismantling of Yongbyon nuclear plant,” February 28, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-trump-yongbyon/trump-says-he-and-north-koreas-kim-discussed-dismantling-of-yongbyon-nuclear-plant-idUSKCN1QH0WN.
7 North Korea itself fully confirmed their version of the offer at a press conference late in the evening after the Summit ended. See, e.g., https://www.scmp.com/author/lee-jeong-ho” Lee Jeong-ho and https://www.scmp.com/author/bhavan-jaipragas” Bhavan Jaipragas, “Trump-Kim Summit 2019: North Korea stages late-night press conference to deny US president’s claims about why summit ended, February 28, 2019, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2188052/trump-kim-summit-2019-ends-disarray-talks-break-down.
8 See Hyonhee Shin and Joyce Lee, Reuters, “North Korea executes envoy to failed U.S. summit – media; White House monitoring,” May 30, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-purge/north-korea-executes-envoy-to-failed-u-s-summit-media-white-house-monitoring-idUSKCN1T02PD.
9 “Jackson Diehl@JacksonDiehl, “Looks like @realDonaldTrump‘s erratic diplomacy, including adopting maximalist Bolton position in Hanoi, got some people killed.”
10 See Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Threatens to Scuttle Talks with the U.S. and Resume Tests,” March 15, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/world/asia/north-korea-kim-jong-un-nuclear.html.
11 See, e.g., Hiroyuki Akita, “Trump demands Japan and South Korea Pay for nuclear umbrella,” February 4, 2020, https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/Trump-demands-Japan-and-South-Korea-pay-for-nuclear-umbrella.
12 See, e.g., Joyce Lee, Sangmi Cha, and Hyonhee Shin, Reuters, “US breaks off defense cost talks, as South Korea balks at $5 billion demand,” November 18, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-usa-talks/us-breaks-off-defense-cost-talks-as-south-korea-balks-at-5-billion-demand-idUSKBN1XT0EN.
13 See Simon Denyer and Moon Joo Kim, “Kim personally supervised ‘guided weapons’ test, North Korea says,” May 4, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-fires-several-short-range-projectiles-south-korean-military-says/2019/05/03/511efe92-6e0f-11e9-be3a-33217240a539_story.html.
14 See Dagyum Ji, “South Korea to push ahead with delivery of $8 million in aid to North: MOU,” May 17, 2019, https://www.nknews.org/2019/05/south-korea-to-push-ahead-with-delivery-of-8-million-in-aid-to-north-mou/.
15 See David E. Sanger, William J. Broad, Choe Sang-Hun, and Eileen Sullivan, “New North Korea Concerns Flare, as Trump’s Signature Diplomacy Wilts,” May 9, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/09/world/asia/north-korea-missile.html.
16 See Steven Borowiec, Asia Society, “The Sad but True Story of North Korea’s Abduction Project,” https://asiasociety.org/korea/sad-true-story-north-koreas-abduction-project.
17 See, e.g., Chad O’Carroll, “Hotline between the two Koreas: why hasn’t it been used yet?” May 10, 2019, https://www.nknews.org/2019/05/hotline-between-the-two-koreas-why-hasnt-it-been-used-yet/.
18 Michael Crowley and David E. Sanger, “In New Talks, US May Settle for a Nuclear Freeze by North Korea,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/30/world/asia/trump-kim-north-korea-negotiations.html.
19 See, e.g., Rebecca Balhaus et al., “Trump’s Twitter Invitation to Kim Set Off 24-Hour Scramble.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-twitter-invitation-to-kim-set-off-24-hour-scramble-11561943026.
20 See Straits Times, “North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un receives personal letter from Trump, KCNA says,” June 24, 2019, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-receives-excellent-letter-from-trump-state-media.
21 See Lara Seligman and Robbie Gramer, “Trump Asks Tokyo to Quadruple Payments for U.S. Troops in Japan,” November 15, 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/15/trump-asks-tokyo-quadruple-payments-us-troops-japan/.
22 There has been considerable press attention and commentary on this ongoing dispute. See e.g., Kim Tong-hyung, “South Korea Will Keep Its Military Intelligence Pact with Japan - For Now,” November 23, 2019, https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/south-korea-will-keeps-its-military-intelligence-pact-with-japan-for-now/; Simon Denyer and Min Joo Kim, “South Korea axes pact on sharing military intelligence with Japan,” August 22, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/south-korea-axes-pact-to-share-military-intelligence-with-japan/2019/08/22/fe57061c-c4be-11e9-8bf7-cde2d9e09055_story.html; and Victor Cha, “The Meaning of GSOMIA Termination; Escalation of the Japan-Korea Dispute,” August 22, 2019, https://www.csis.org/analysis/meaning-gsomia-termination-escalation-japan-korea-dispute.
23 See Treaty between Japan and Republic of Korea, dated June 22, 1965, Number 8473, https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20583/volume-583-I-8473-English.pdf.
24 See “Sharing military intel with Japan ‘difficult,’ Moon tells visiting U.S. defense chief,” November 15, 2019, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/11/15/national/sharing-military-intel-japan-difficult-moon-tells-visiting-u-s-defense-chief/#.XmOlqKhKiF4.
25 Ibid.
> 26 See, e.g., Brian Kim, “Korea and Japan Clash Over History and law,” August 16, 2019, https://www.lawfareblog.com/korea-and-japan-clash-over-history-and-law; Yosuke Onchi and Jada Nagumo, “Five things to know about South Korea’s wartime labor ruling,” October 30, 2018, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Five-things-to-know-about-South-Korea-s-wartime-labor-ruling; and Choe Sang-Hun and Rick Gladstone, “How a World War II-Era Reparations Case Is Roiling Asia,” October 30, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/30/world/asia/south-korea-japan-compensation-world-war-two.html.
27 On November 22, South Korea suspended its withdrawal from GSOMIA. Whether bilateral relations would thereupon improve, or simply remain as they were, was unclear. See, e.g., “Japan-South Korea friction flares again after GSOMIA intel pact rescue,” https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/11/25/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-south-korea-bickering-gsomia/#.Xez2X-hKiF4.
CHAPTER 12: TRUMP LOSES HIS WAY, AND THEN HIS NERVE
1 See Thomas Erdbrink, “ ‘Death to America’ Means ‘Death to Trump,’ Iran’s Supreme Leader Says,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/08/world/middleeast/iran-trump-death-to-america.html.
2 See Alma Keshavarz, “A Review of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Qods Force: Growing Global Presence, Links to Cartels, and Mounting Sophisti-cations,” https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/a-review-of-iran%E2%80%99s-revolutionary-guards-and-qods-force-growing-global-presence-links-to-car.
3 See, e.g., Tim Arango, “Iran Dominates in Iraq After U.S. ‘Handed the Country Over,’ ” July 15, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-iraq-iranian-power.html; James Risen, Tim Arango, Farnaz Fassihi, Murtaza Hussain, Ronen Bergman, “A Spy Complex revealed,” November 18, 2019, https://theintercept.com/2019/11/18/iran-iraq-spy-cables/; and NPR, “Iran’s Powerful influence in Iraq,” January 4, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/01/04/793662756/iran-s-powerful-influence-in-iraq.
