Thus far, however, the Russians had made no attempts to detain American diplomats. On the contrary, it was business as usual in Moscow, with Russia downplaying its dual invasions, labeling its incursion into Ukraine a temporary security measure to ensure the safety of ethnic Russians until the time, determined by President Kalinin, the Ukrainian government instituted adequate safeguards. Lithuania was also billed as a limited military deployment protecting the rights of Russia and its citizens, responding to the hostility of NATO countries—Poland and Lithuania—abusing their power by preventing the transit of Russian citizens and military units between Russia proper and Kaliningrad Oblast.
The president had invited Dawn and Christine to his office on Air Force One to discuss Russia’s transgressions and the pending NATO meeting in Brussels, and he directed his first question to Dawn. “Help me understand Kalinin’s thought process. What does he want that’s worth risking war with NATO and international sanctions that could cripple Russia’s economy?”
“In my assessment,” Dawn began, “if Russia were a person, he or she would be diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder. They’ve been invaded by Western European countries three times, and Nazi Germany’s occupation was horrific, resulting in the death of twenty-seven million men and women and the destruction of hundreds of cities. In simple terms, Russians are paranoid, justly or not, and their paranoia increases each time one of their former allies joins NATO. They simply don’t trust the West, and many Russians believe it’s only a matter of time before NATO finds a reason to invade.
“Ukraine’s turn toward the West was pivotal in Russia’s approach to this issue. Not only did they feel betrayed by one of their closest allies, but most of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is homeported in Crimea. The annexation of Crimea was essential to ensure they retained access to their main Black Sea port, and their support of separatists in Donbass is an attempt to reestablish a buffer zone between Russia and the West, should Ukraine eventually become a NATO member.”
The president digested Dawn’s assessment, then turned the conversation to the impending NATO meeting. “Russia invaded Ukraine previously, annexing Crimea, and no one came to Ukraine’s assistance. How do we shape a different outcome this time?”
Dawn replied, “Russia’s annexation of Crimea was a unique situation. Its population is two-thirds ethnic Russian and the province was part of Russia for two hundred years before it was gifted to Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev in 1954. From a Russian perspective, they simply took back what was rightfully theirs. Additionally, although Ukraine protested, they ceded the region without conflict. There was no war for NATO or the United States to intervene in.
“This time, however, there’s no historical justification for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or Lithuania. The Russians will argue they were provoked and had no alternative, but we all know the excuses are a sham. The obvious reason is that Kalinin wants to reestablish buffer states between Russia and Western Europe. Additionally, this time Russia invaded a NATO country and the Alliance will have to respond.”
Turning to Christine, the president asked, “Do you have anything to add?”
Christine answered, “I concur with Dawn’s assessment of Kalinin’s motives. However, I’d like to expound on NATO’s obligation. Lithuania isn’t as cut-and-dried as it appears. Article Five of the North Atlantic Treaty states that an armed attack on one or more members shall be considered an attack on all, and that all members will assist, taking actions deemed necessary. However, the treaty doesn’t spell out what assist means, nor the actions deemed necessary. The wording keeps NATO’s options open, with the possible responses ranging from nuclear war to a stern protest sent via postcard. Even though Lithuania has been invaded, there is no obligation to engage Russia militarily.
“We’ll also have to deal with NATO’s unique decision-making process. On its surface, NATO’s principle of requiring consensus on each resolution might seem a hindrance, in that one nation can torpedo a proposal. However, consensus doesn’t mean unanimous approval. All twenty-eight countries don’t have to vote yes in order for a resolution to be adopted. Instead, as long as no country votes no, consensus is achieved. Additionally, each country doesn’t have to vote; they can abstain if they want. The ability to abstain from a vote, called the silence procedure, allows governments to tacitly approve a NATO resolution without officially doing so, thereby not putting their vote on the record, which could be used against them by political opponents back home.
“Another issue to consider is that even if NATO authorizes the use of military force, member states aren’t bound to provide assets. So you really have two diplomatic battles to win, Mr. President. You have to convince the other twenty-seven members to either vote yes or abstain, then you’ll need to persuade as many members as possible to contribute forces.”
The president nodded his understanding, then turned back to Dawn. “How do you think this is going to shake out?”
Dawn answered, “If NATO authorizes the use of military force and Russia doesn’t back down, we’re talking about a full-scale continental war. Even if a country abstains from the vote and initially refuses to provide forces, if NATO begins to lose, they’ll be drawn into the conflict. It’s not likely NATO would lose given our combined forces, but the potential is one many countries fear. And if Russia gains the upper hand, they might not stop at Lithuania and Ukraine. Armed conflict with Russia is a can of worms many NATO members won’t want to open.”
“I understand their concern,” the president said. As he prepared to ask another question, there was a knock on his door. After the president acknowledged, McVeigh entered with a somber look on his face, taking a seat on the leather sofa beside the two women.
“I have bad news, Mr. President. Belarus has invaded Ukraine, launching an assault against the Ukrainian Army’s north flank, while Russia has begun a major assault from the south. Additionally, Russia’s airborne troops are being deployed along the Dnieper River, which runs north–south through the entire country, seizing the bridges. The initial invasion was bait, drawing Ukrainian forces toward its eastern border. It won’t be long before the entire Ukrainian Army is surrounded.
“The outcome in Ukraine was never in doubt. Without outside assistance, Russia will prevail. We were hoping Ukraine could hold out long enough for NATO or the United States to assist. That’s not going to happen. This war will be over in the next few days, and expelling Russia from Ukraine just became significantly harder. Instead of assisting Ukraine in a fluid battle, Russian units will be dug in along the Dnieper River.”
After absorbing the news, the president replied, “This at least provides clarity to the way forward, eliminating the urgency in committing NATO’s rapid response forces. Driving Russia from Lithuania and Ukraine is going to take a concerted, well-planned effort. It won’t be easy, but at least we’ll have time to build consensus and deploy the required forces to Europe.
“However, it’s imperative we not go it alone. We need a NATO resolution authorizing the use of military force against Russia, and we need as many NATO members as possible to contribute forces.” The president finished with, “We have our work cut out for us. Engage your counterparts in Brussels and do what you can to influence the outcome.”
The members of his staff and cabinet departed his office, and as the door closed, the president’s thoughts went to the conversations earlier that day, when he’d contacted most of NATO’s leadership. The prime minister of the United Kingdom was on board, as were the leaders of the Baltic States and Poland. Most of the remaining leaders were noncommittal, except for France, Italy, and Germany, who were leaning against military action. As the last few hours of the flight to Belgium drew to a close, the president knew he’d have a difficult task come morning.
40
USS MICHIGAN
In Michigan’s Battle Management Center, Lieutenant Harrison stood beside a plasma screen displaying a map of Egypt, briefing Michigan’s next mission. Seated in the Battle
Management Center were Captain Wilson, his Executive Officer, and four department heads, plus Commander McNeil and the three other SEALs assigned to the mission.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Michigan had received new orders, routing the submarine into the Black Sea. However, before heading north, Michigan had to complete another mission; Harrison and three other SEALs would be sent ashore into Egypt. The Navigator had already briefed Michigan’s approach to Arish, located on the coast of the Sinai Peninsula, which presented no challenges, and it was Harrison’s turn to brief. A single fire team of four SEALs would be sent ashore.
“Once Michigan is in position off Egypt’s coast, the fire team will debark using one of the two RHIBs in the port Dry Deck Shelter,” Harrison said, referring to the Rigid Hull Inflatable Boats SEALs sometimes used for missions ashore. “Accompanying me will be Maydwell, Mendelson, and Brown.”
Harrison nodded and one of the SEALs advanced the slide on the display, which shifted to a satellite view of Arish. There was nothing noteworthy in the vicinity as far as Harrison could tell, no government or military facilities, just a single building.
“Our mission is to recon the area. Find out why Russia was interested enough to send Special Forces personnel to this building, and what, if anything, they did while they were there. Any questions?”
There were none, and Harrison wrapped up the briefing.
* * *
An hour later, with Michigan at periscope depth off the coast of the Sinai Peninsula, Lieutenant Harrison led his fire team into Missile Tube Two and into the port Dry Deck Shelter. Stowed in the shelter were two RHIBs, one of which would be used for tonight’s mission. Unlike SDV operations, there were no Navy divers in the shelter to assist aside from the diver on the other side of the Plexiglas shield, operating the hangar controls.
The four SEALs donned scuba gear and the shelter was flooded down, then the hangar door moved slowly open to the latched position. Harrison and the other SEALs hauled one of the RHIBs from the shelter onto the submarine’s missile deck and connected a tether line from the RHIB to one of the SDV rails, then activated the first compressed air cartridge.
As the RHIB expanded, Rob Maydwell and Richard Mendelson swam aft along the missile deck and opened the hatch to a locker in the submarine’s superstructure. The two SEALs retrieved an outboard motor and attached it to the RHIB, then actuated the second air cartridge. The RHIB fully inflated, rising toward the water’s surface. Maydwell and Mendelson followed the RHIB upward, and a few moments later, Mendelson returned, rendering the okay hand signal. Harrison informed the Navy diver inside the Dry Deck Shelter that the RHIB was operational and they were proceeding on their mission, then disconnected the tether line from the shelter and headed toward the surface with Mendelson and Brown.
Harrison and the other two SEALs hauled themselves and the tether line into the RHIB, joining Maydwell. The outboard engine was running, but barely audible as expected. Maydwell shifted the outboard into gear, and as their position updated on his handheld GPS display, he pointed the RHIB toward their insertion point on the Egyptian coast.
41
ARISH, EGYPT
As they approached the coast, Maydwell eased back on the throttle, reducing the engine noise to a low purr, inaudible above the waves breaking upon the shore. The SEALs had shed their scuba gear, and their diver face masks had been replaced with night-vision goggles and headsets. Under the faint moonlight filtering down between scattered clouds, Maydwell spotted their destination and angled the RHIB toward a rock outcropping, shifting the engine to neutral.
The RHIB coasted to a halt as it reached the rocks. Mendelson slid into the water, tether in hand. After securing the RHIB, he returned to retrieve his Heckler & Koch MP7 submachine gun, and Harrison led the team ashore onto the rock-strewn beach.
* * *
An hour later, they approached the specified latitude and longitude coordinates on the outskirts of Arish, spotting a windowless, single-story building. As they closed on their destination, Harrison noted a three-foot-diameter pipe exiting the building, turning down into the sand a few feet later. They stopped beside the building; there was no indication anyone was inside—the only audible activity was the steady hum of machinery. Moving along the perimeter, Harrison identified an entrance on the south side, along with another three-foot-diameter pipe exiting the building.
Harrison stood beside the door while their breacher—a demolitions expert—Petty Officer Maydwell, examined the door. Inside his backpack was the material required to gain entrance: C-4 explosives, initiators, and detonators, but he examined the lock first. It was nothing fancy, just a normal door lock. Maydwell pulled a set of universal keys from his backpack, and on the third try, the door unlocked.
The other three SEALs raised their MP7s to the firing position, and Maydwell shoved the door open. Harrison surged inside, stepping to the left as Mendelson followed, moving to the right to make room for Brown, who entered next, stopping in the middle of the three SEALs.
Harrison scanned the room. The two sections of pipe passed through opposite walls and were connected to machinery inside, which occupied almost the entire interior of the building. The wall to the left was lined with control consoles, with indicators of various colors glowing in the darkness. Maydwell entered and the four SEALs spread out, searching the facility for personnel. After scouring the building and finding no one, the four men gathered in front of the control panels.
Harrison directed his men, “Figure out what this equipment does and why Russian Spetsnaz would be sent here.”
The three other SEALs fanned out again as Harrison studied the panels against the wall. The nomenclature on the controls was Arabic, which Harrison couldn’t translate, but there were numerous pressure gauges on each panel, which indicated the machinery were pumps. Given the pipeline passing through the building, Harrison concluded the facility was a pumping station for either oil or natural gas. Harrison retrieved a camera from his backpack and took photographs of each panel and the machinery behind him. As he returned the camera to his backpack, he heard Mendelson’s voice in his headset.
“I found something. North side of the building.”
Harrison joined Mendelson and the two other SEALs, who were standing near the pipe entering the building, where it connected to the first piece of equipment. Mendelson pointed to a crevice in the machinery, where something had been placed. Harrison and the other SEALs lifted their night-vision goggles to get a better look as Mendelson activated a flashlight, examining a small one-foot-by-one-foot object. It was an explosive charge, with enough C-4 to blow the building sky-high. The detonator, however, was of an unusual design, one Harrison hadn’t seen before: no wires to cut, just an electronic module pressed into the C-4.
Maydwell moved forward and examined it, then stepped back.
“Russian design,” he said. “Their newest and most sophisticated. There’s no way to remove or disarm it.” As Harrison gave him an inquisitive look—there was always a way to disarm a detonator—Maydwell expounded. “It has built-in motion sensors, so if you try to remove it, it goes off. It’s detonated via a satellite signal, and if you jam it for too long, it goes off. This charge is coming off only one way—in a million pieces, along with the rest of this building.”
Harrison took photographs of the explosive charge and its detonator, and as he returned his camera to his backpack, he reflected on the intel provided for this mission: Russian Spetsnaz had been dispatched to various points throughout Egypt. If their missions had been the same as this one, the entire Egyptian oil and natural gas pipeline infrastructure had been wired with explosives.
42
BRUSSELS, BELGIUM
Seven hours after departing Joint Base Andrews, with the early morning sun hidden behind overcast skies, Air Force One landed at Zaventem Airport, a few miles northeast of Brussels. The president was met on the tarmac by the U.S. ambassadors to Belgium and NATO, along with senior NATO staff and Belgian gov
ernment representatives. After the requisite greetings, the president slipped into the back of the presidential car, nicknamed Cadillac One. A hybrid Cadillac built upon a truck frame and extensively modified with armored plating and bulletproof windows, Cadillac One had been transported to Brussels during the night with the rest of the president’s motorcade and backup vehicles.
Christine, Dawn, and McVeigh were escorted to their sedan, several cars behind the president’s, and the motorcade headed into Brussels. After penetrating the northeast perimeter of the city and turning down Boulevard Leopold III, the presidential motorcade arrived at a mammoth new complex, in front of which stood a twenty-three-foot-tall oxidized steel star, symbol of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
The entourage was led to a lobby outside the Alliance’s main conference room, where the leaders of NATO’s other twenty-seven countries were already gathered. Another round of introductions ensued, accompanied with a maddening amount of protocol dictating who greeted whom first and what order followed.
The clock struck the appointed hour and the conference room doors opened. The twenty-eight NATO leaders took their seats at a large round table with twenty-nine chairs: one for the leader of each NATO country, with the final chair for the secretary-general. The president inserted a wireless earpiece into his ear, listening to the English translator as the secretary-general, Johan Van der Bie, a well-respected diplomat from the Netherlands, gave a short introductory speech. An update on Russia’s dual invasions followed, with the information displayed on a dozen video screens mounted along the circumference of the conference room.
It was quiet in Lithuania, with Russia’s 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division and six additional motor rifle brigades, totaling forty thousand combat troops, digging in along the corridor they had occupied. The Russians seemed content with the sliver of Lithuania, while their goal in Ukraine was more ambitious. Ukraine’s Army of twenty-two ground combat units were engaged to the east by twenty-four Russian brigades, and early last night, Russia had launched two offensives on the Ukrainian Army’s flanks. Ten Russian brigades had broken through from the south, while twelve more brigades—six Belarusian mechanized infantry and six Russian Spetsnaz units—had penetrated Ukraine’s northern flank. Within the hour, Russian and Belarusian units would complete the encirclement of the Ukrainian Army.
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