by Larry Bond
“The Chinese have posted the audio file on the Net, and several navies are examining the file, not only to confirm the Chinese accusation, but for evidence of tampering or falsification.
“The Chinese have also accused Vietnamese submarines of taking part, and have demanded both nations immediately cease attacks and agree to reparations, or face ‘the gravest consequences.’ The Chinese have also frozen all Vietnamese and Japanese funds in Chinese banks, and forbidden the trading of the yen.”
New scenes appeared, of a Chinese embassy guarded by Japanese police, almost surrounding the building, then a crowded airport full of worried travelers. “Chinese embassies in both countries are closed, diplomatic personnel are preparing to leave, and Chinese nationals have been instructed to leave immediately. The same situation applies to Vietnamese and Japanese nationals in China, which includes tens of thousands of tourists.
“Beyond these public announcements, reports and rumors of attacks are popping up over the entire region.
“Early yesterday, Philippine sources reported Chinese ships and aircraft operating near their possessions in the Spratly Islands, followed shortly by a total loss of mobile phone and radio contact. Ownership of the Spratlys is disputed by China, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, and other nations. Sources online have confirmed the presence of Chinese naval vessels, and probably Chinese troops there.
“The Vietnamese government has reported scores of aircraft attacks along its border with China, and ballistic missiles falling in both Hanoi and Haiphong, with deadly results. The government has ordered the entire country ‘mobilized to repel the Chinese invader.’ The Vietnamese claim to have shot down almost a dozen aircraft in the initial wave of attacks.
“And this footage was just received.” A tangled complex of pipes and storage tanks appeared, billowing with black smoke and surrounded by emergency vehicles. “This is Sinopec’s Guangzhou Branch refinery in Guangdong province. Witnesses reported seeing cruise missiles striking the facility, triggering massive explosions and fires, with heavy loss of life.”
The anchor paused, as if to draw a breath before continuing. “On any other day, this disaster would be the lead story. Hundreds of people have died in the first-ever fatal accident of the Shinkansen, the Japanese ‘bullet train.’ One train, at full speed, collided with another train inexplicably stopped in front of it. Before word of the accident reached the controllers, a third train slammed into the other two.”
The footage showed rescue workers in helmets and brightly colored vests moving amid tangled wreckage. It wasn’t recognizable as a train wreck until the view changed to a longer shot, showing the tracks and parts of the train still on track. Then the image shifted to show a Shinto priest praying in front of dozens of white-draped bodies. “Hospitals in the area have been flooded with casualties, and the total count of the dead and wounded rises by the hour.”
White House Situation Room
Washington, D.C.
Kirkpatrick switched off the set. “That’s a good summary of what the rest of the world has to work with.”
Patterson, General Nagy, and Admiral Hughes all nodded. Nagy, the vice chairman of the JCS, asked, “Have we confirmed that the Japanese disaster was a cyber attack?” He was asking Kirkpatrick, but also looked at Dr. Foster, head of the CIA.
Foster answered, “Yes. The Japanese and our people came to the same conclusion. The control system was hacked. First it sent an ‘obstacle’ message to just one train, causing it to stop, but only that train. It then took over the communications network, suppressed all the real-time data, and replaced it with synthetic information. The controllers never saw any problems because they were looking at an animation.”
Patterson asked, “And the Chinese were behind it?”
“It’s likely,” Foster said. “Electrons usually don’t leave fingerprints, but we traced the hack back to a location associated with past operations run by the Chinese. Whoever did it had to be real good, because the Japanese network protections were top-rate.”
Kirkpatrick added, “We’ll see more of that in Japan now. They’re a U.S. ally, so the Chinese are pushing first covertly, to see if they can make Tokyo say uncle. We don’t have the details yet, but we think the Chinese are going to make some sort of move that will devalue the Japanese yen.”
General Nagy observed, “They don’t have that problem with Vietnam. That news report is the tip of the iceberg. The Chinese haven’t committed any ground troops yet; it looks like they’re taking a page from Desert Storm and pummeling the Vietnamese from the air for a while before they invade.”
Patterson asked, “How long before the Chinese cross the border?”
The general shrugged. “Soon, but they’ll want to make sure they have an overwhelming force before they attack. The Vietnamese are unlikely to cave in easily; they fought the Chinese before, back in 1979 and gave them a whuppin’. But in the meantime, the Chinese are inflicting a lot of damage with only moderate losses. That release from Hanoi didn’t mention that the Vietnamese have lost a lot of their own fighters trying to stop the Chinese raids.”
“And you were right, General.” Kirkpatrick smiled. “Dumb grunts can be pretty smart. EP-3 intercepts and satellite images show Chinese troops and ships all over the South China Sea, seizing islands and reefs that have been disputed territory. They’re concentrating on ones with airfields, so this is only wave one. Intel has been backtracking the movements of Chinese units, now that we know where to look, and they’ve been prepping for months.”
“And the Vietnamese mined the carrier to disrupt the operation,” Patterson concluded.
“Except it didn’t,” Kirkpatrick explained. “Beijing pressed on. But now that we know who started the ball rolling, the president can get to work. He will see the Chinese ambassador later today. And in the meantime, the State Department is advising U.S. citizens to get out of China and all the countries bordering it—basically, most of Asia. Who knows where trouble is going to pop up next?”
13
REVELATION
5 September 2016
0830 Local Time
Tokyo University, Waseda Campus
Hongo, Bunkyo Ward, Tokyo
Komamura stared at his computer screen with a mixture of apprehension and dismay; his right hand shook as he reached for his cup of tea. The professor had once again locked his office door before calling up the CNN news feed, a precaution that was becoming all too common these days. He didn’t want someone barging in on him while he watched the press conference. He had little confidence he would be able to hide his emotions. The Littoral Alliance was going public.
* * *
The debate the night before had been long, intense, and at times, heated. Komamura had argued vociferously that anonymity was still a useful weapon in the alliance’s arsenal. As long as the Chinese were uncertain as to whom they faced, their actions were constrained. Once the veil of doubt was removed, the Chinese leadership would be free to escalate the conflict—undoubtedly resulting in more casualties among the civilian populations. Many of the military participants argued that revealing the alliance’s members, as well as the current war, would allow them to invoke civil defense measures that would preclude another disaster such as the Sanyo Shinkansen train wreck.
The elderly academic had shivered when General Ijuin, the chief of staff of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, mentioned the multiple train crash just outside of Shin-Osaka Station. At the height of the evening commute, the two sixteen-car trains and the one eight-car train carried over 3,200 people. The death toll was now just over 2,700, and expected to rise, as the vast majority of the survivors were in critical condition. Only a fortunate few had limped away from the scene.
Having ridden Japan’s bullet train system often, Komamura had trouble banishing images of the carnage that would be created when one train traveling at three hundred kilometers per hour slammed into another. The preliminary accident report showed no indication of a mechanical failure. The black
boxes had been recovered quickly and the data showed all three trains were functioning normally, with the exception of the automatic train control system input. The Nozomi train recorded a track-obstruction warning signal that caused it to come to a stop; the other two trains not only didn’t show the same warning signal, they weren’t alerted that they were getting perilously close to another train.
The only possible conclusion for this highly improbable failure was deliberate sabotage. This meant someone had to hack their way into the Shinkansen’s control network and alter the signals sent to the three trains. That the incident occurred almost simultaneously with the PRC’s press release alleging Japan’s involvement with the tanker war all but proved Chinese culpability for the cyber attack. Indian cyber warfare specialists agreed.
As costly as the Shinkansen cyber attack was, Komamura had stressed that once the alliance membership was announced to the world, the cork in the nuclear genie’s bottle would be removed. Identifying India as an alliance member could potentially have the same negative effect that inviting the Americans would have. India was a nuclear power, and a desperate China could send a “message” to the alliance by using a single nuclear weapon on one of the nonnuclear members. Given the lingering psychological scar from World War II, that made Japan the most likely target. Komamura understood this scarring all too well. His mother had died of radiation-induced cancer two decades after the Nagasaki bombing.
“Dr. Komamura,” replied Vu Kim Binh, Vietnam’s minister of foreign affairs, politely, “while I appreciate your concerns, I believe you are being overly cautious. All three superpowers have lost wars without resorting to nuclear weapons to ensure victory: the U.S. and China with my country, and the Soviet Union with Afghanistan.”
“Yes, Minister, you are correct, sir. But this conflict is fundamentally different from the ones you just mentioned,” countered Komamura. “In those conflicts, the superpowers were never threatened at a national level. Their pride was damaged, but not their homeland. We have intentionally targeted China’s economy. We want to cause national harm, to rein in their aggressive behavior. The current conflict is on a far greater scale, which comes with far greater risk.”
“Which is why we must conclude this campaign as soon as possible, Professor. And to do that, we must increase our pressure on the Chinese. This alone requires that the war, and the reason behind it, be made known to our countrymen,” interjected Japan’s foreign minister, Tadashi Hata.
“I agree with you, Minister Tadashi,” echoed India’s foreign secretary, Kanwal Nehru, over the VTC speakers. “And in that regard, the Republic of India is prepared to enforce a total blockade of the Strait of Malacca and Lombok Strait. This will shut the PRC off from its primary oil suppliers in the Middle East and Africa. It will also extend the blockade to their bulk cargo carriers, denying them the raw materials for their factories.”
“Gentlemen, I am encouraged by your devotion to our common cause,” Vu said with noticeable emotion. “My country has borne the brunt of the PRC’s aggression and we have suffered considerable losses. Our sympathy goes out to our Japanese ally, but such losses will only continue to rise if we do not take bold steps to increase China’s pain.”
“Minister Vu,” interrupted General Ijuin, “have you been able to confirm the rumors that the Chinese have implemented their original invasion plan in the Spratly Islands?”
“Yes, General. Even though we ordered our spy to make good his escape, he bravely sent us another report before doing so. He provided a copy of the revised timeline as well as the order for the PLA Navy to begin the amphibious invasions of numerous islands across the entire breadth of the Spratly archipelago. Not surprisingly, their initial targets were those islands with airfields.
“Based on sparse reports, both Thitu and Itu Aba Islands fell almost immediately. The Vietnamese garrison at Dao Truong Sa, excuse me, Spratly Island, is giving the Chinese a good fight, but I regret to report they too will soon fall.”
“Can anything be done to lend them assistance?” asked the Japanese general. Concern filled his voice.
Vu’s expression was resigned as he shrugged. “We’ve sent a naval squadron to engage the Chinese invaders, but even if they are successful in stopping their amphibious operations, I fear our navy will be horribly mauled in the process.”
An ominous silence fell upon the group. The arguments had been made; there was nothing further to say. Several sharp wooden raps shattered the silence. Tadashi lowered the gavel onto the sound block. “If there is nothing more to discuss, I recommend that we put the motion of declaring the Littoral Alliance’s existence to a vote.”
Komamura watched in silence as the vote was three to one in favor of revealing the alliance to the world. Only South Korea voted against, concerned that the PRC would turn the North’s army, effectively a mercenary force, south. Foreign Minister Tadashi assigned one of his adjutants to arrange the press conference for the next morning.
It was early in the morning when Komamura finally returned to his Tokyo apartment. He collapsed into the recliner, loosened his tie, and took a long drink of sake, emptying the cup. He refilled it, and without thinking picked up the TV remote. The flat screen flashed to life and immediately showed news coverage of the train wreck. Komamura gasped as the screen was filled with dozens of first responders carrying body bags toward a line of waiting military trucks. The camera zoomed in on one of the trucks, showing the thick black bags stacked up inside the bed like cordwood. Shaking, the elderly professor quickly turned the TV off, and drank in the dark.
* * *
“Good morning. The purpose of this press conference is to inform the world about the secret war our four nations have been fighting with the People’s Republic of China, and alert them to the threat our enemy poses to all of us.” Foreign Minister Tadashi’s introduction wrenched Komamura from his drowsiness. Sitting up straight in his chair, he leaned forward as Japan’s leading diplomat continued with his formal announcement.
“I know many are asking, ‘Why would they do such a thing?’ The short answer is that we had exhausted all other options, other than surrender. China has grown more assertive over the preceding two decades, as their economy and technology base expanded at a fantastic rate, but within the last few years that assertiveness has taken a militaristic path.
“The People’s Republic of China has demanded we cede to them some of our territory, they’ve interfered with the exploitation of the natural resources in those territories, arrested our fishermen for fishing in our waters, and threatened our nations with dire consequences if we did not comply. They’ve used extortion on one of our members; pay or we’ll no longer be able to hold our allies to the north in check. They’ve provided weapons to terrorist groups around the world, furthering the pain and anguish of the indigenous population for political and/or economic gain. Our countries have made diplomatic attempts to try and resolve the issues peacefully. But the answer was always the same, accept their demands and then there would be peace. The world has heard this story before.”
Tadashi paused as he let his carefully tuned emotional appeal sink in. He had to reach the people of the Littoral Alliance countries, and, hopefully, the world.
“Recently, we discovered the Chinese planned to resolve the issue of sovereignty of disputed territories in the South China Sea through military conquest. What were we to do? Acquiesce and reward the Communist bully? Encourage him to become even bolder? This aggressive move is but the beginning of a carefully crafted campaign designed to also seize even more territory in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea.
“Should we cower in fear and let China take what is not theirs to secure a short-lived peace? Or do we stand up for our democratic principles, our heritage, and our people? Given the choice, we collectively chose to stand against the bully, to defend our countries, to defend our people.”
Komamura was impressed with Tadashi’s oratory. He was pushing all the right ethnic, cultural, and political buttons
designed to raise the righteous indignation of the Japanese people. His words would probably have a similar effect on the other alliance populations, and perhaps Western Europe. And while Tadashi’s message would resonate with some in the United States and Russia, it wouldn’t be sufficient for their governments to be convinced they needed to become directly involved.
Japan’s foreign minister then expounded on the alliance’s knowledge of the Chinese threat, explaining the chain of events in vague terms and linking them to the current amphibious operations in the South China Sea. This was in deference to Vietnam’s request to not provide too much information that could jeopardize their spy’s safety. Still, it was enough to show that the People’s Republic of China had been planning a major military operation in September to seize control of most of the Spratly Islands. Tadashi wrapped up his portion of the press conference by reiterating that their only choices were a preemptive attack or surrender—and the alliance had chosen the former.
The Vietnamese and South Korean foreign ministers both spoke briefly, essentially adding their country’s stamp of approval to Tadashi’s statement. But it was the Indian ambassador, standing in for the foreign secretary, who dropped the final bombshell.
“Since the Littoral Alliance is at war with the People’s Republic of China, we must, regretfully, declare that all shipping lanes in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Yellow Sea are war zones. Any merchant ship sailing through those waters will be at risk. Any ship heading to a Chinese port will be attacked and sunk without warning. We will no longer confine our attacks only to tankers.
“Lastly, the Indian Navy will begin a total blockade of the Strait of Malacca and Lombok Strait effective immediately. Any ship attempting to pass through either strait will be boarded, their registry and cargo manifest examined. Any cargo bound for the People’s Republic of China will be confiscated; vessels bound for other Far East destinations will have to take the long way around. If a ship refuses to heave to and be boarded, they will receive but one warning before shells are fired at the bridge.”
