by Larry Bond
“And how much longer?” Minister Nyguen’s tone was firm. The professor could tell he expected an answer. “We are bearing the brunt of the Chinese anger.”
Minister Hisagi countered, “We have all been attacked, and suffered damage.”
“Not by ballistic missiles or airstrikes! We also have armored formations massing across our border. We just want to know—must we plan again for an extended war?”
“China will probably reach a crisis point in about a month, but not less than three weeks,” Komamura replied carefully. That was his staff’s best estimate, and he agreed with their numbers. “That is an economist’s answer. I have told my staff to brief your intelligence people on what you call ‘indicators.’ They will know what to watch for. I encourage this working group to develop plans and policy to take advantage of the situation, whenever it appears. Other alliances have missed fleeting opportunities to seize victory.”
Nehru asked, “Are you still opposed to the United States joining our side in this struggle? Some here have proposed offering inducements to the Americans to join us, or at least stop interfering in our operations. Perhaps economic incentives could be found.”
Komamura fought the urge to answer immediately, and paused, as if considering the idea, but then responded, “We cannot replace the economic pull of China. There is also the widespread destruction that would come with open war, and the issue of nuclear weapons. These days, my nightmares are uranium-fueled.
“If more nations join the alliance,” he said, bowing slightly toward the Indonesian and Filipino tables, “our political strength will become a useful tool. China is seen as the aggressor now, and has few friends.
“Our task is to not only stop Chinese expansion in the South China Sea, but convince them that the cost of any future adventures will be more than they are willing to pay. They attacked because they thought we were weak and divided, but we have shown unexpected strength. That surprised and shocked the Chinese leaders, and we must continue to do so. Only such a shock will compel them to face the true situation, and make them cease their aggression.”
Komamura sat down, a little heavily, and first one delegate, then all of them, applauded. Surprised, embarrassed, he shook his head and motioned for them to stop. Nehru, smiling, led the applause for a few more moments, then as the minister spoke, it stopped immediately.
“Your leadership inspires us all, Professor. In keeping with your doctrine, can you provide our staff with a list of targets, based on your economic expertise?”
Komamura nodded tiredly. “Of course. And I will also include facilities that could help the Chinese compensate for their lack of oil.” Even as he said it, he hated what he was doing. But it was necessary.
7 September 2016
1600 Local Time
Luzon, Republic of the Philippines
The reporter was young, in her mid-twenties, and her wide-eyed excitement carried over into her report. She stood in front of a wide concrete tarmac, with the whine of jet engines a constant background to her narration.
“Today, Clark Air Base saw an amazing scene as U.S. fighters were joined by Japanese aircraft in reinforcing the Philippines’ air defenses.
“Following President Myles’s condemnation of the seizure of Spratly Island by the Chinese, the U.S. has promised to deploy air, ground, and naval units to the area to ‘guarantee the territorial integrity of its longtime ally and to deter further Chinese aggression.’” As she spoke, images flashed by of F-22 Raptors lined up at the air base, then supplies being unloaded at a port, and finally a U.S. aircraft carrier, in formation with other warships.
“As U.S. forces began arriving, and without any prior coordination, Japanese F-15Js entered Philippine airspace. According to a Philippine government spokesman, the Japanese reinforcements include not only a squadron of fighters, but patrol aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, engineers, and JDS Kirishima, an advanced Aegis destroyer with ballistic missile defense capabilities.” An image of the slab-sided warship cutting through the water at high speed appeared.
“In a related development, the U.S. secretary of state, Andrew Lloyd, gave a speech yesterday at Wesleyan University articulating the American position on the conflict. While he encouraged both sides to ‘find a path to peaceful resolution’ of the conflict, the speech also carried a blunt warning to China.”
A clip of Lloyd at a podium showed him speaking forcefully. “U.S. forces are deploying to guarantee the security of our longtime allies. There should be no misunderstanding about the dire consequences to China of further aggression.”
The reporter continued, “There has been no official communication between the Littoral Alliance and the United States, but an ad hoc conference between the on-scene commanders is taking place as I speak. These two onetime enemies, flying from a former battleground, must find a way to coexist in a volatile international situation and work toward the goal of guaranteeing Philippine security.”
16
DEPRESSION
7 September 2016
0500 Local Time
By Water
Halifax, Nova Scotia
Mac returned to his computer with a fresh steaming cup of coffee. It had been another long night, and he was still feeling a bit groggy. Looking out his office window, he could see the sun just peeking over the horizon. It was a glorious sunrise, with dazzling fiery oranges and deep reds. He frowned as the old adage “Red sky in morning, sailors take warning” popped into his mind. He’d have to check the weather forecast; it looked like a storm was brewing. But that would have to wait; there was a major blog entry he had to finish on the storm raging on the other side of the planet. Mac turned and looked again at the images on the flat-panel display. The photos of the two ships showed they’d both gone through hell.
The first photo was a crisp close-up shot of a Vietnamese Molniya-class guided missile boat, hull number HQ-380. The PTG had limped into port some four hours earlier, displaying incredible damage to the superstructure. Hell, the entire superstructure has been practically stripped off, Mac thought to himself, shaking his head. It was a miracle the little boat even made it back.
He shifted his gaze to the second photo. It had been taken from farther away, and while not as sharp, the ship was still easily identifiable. The Type 052C destroyer was under tow. Three huge blackened holes contrasted starkly with the pale gray hull. Streaks of soot along the upper decks spoke of a severe fire. Mac shuddered as he imagined the men desperately fighting the raging inferno. They had little choice; there is nowhere to run on a ship at sea. He took another sip of coffee before setting the cup down, his fingers slowly returning to the keyboard.
The Great Pacific War of 2016
Posted By: Mac
Subj: New – The Battle of Spratly Island
Evidence of a pitched naval engagement off the Vietnamese-claimed Spratly Island started to surface earlier this morning. According to eyewitness accounts, the Vietnamese Navy sortied one of their Russian-built Project 11661 Gepard 3.9 frigates with four Molniya (Project 1241.1/Tarantul V) guided-missile patrol boats in an attempt to relieve the garrison that was under siege from a PLAN amphibious assault force. Battle was joined late in the afternoon on 5 September and culminated in a massive exchange of missile fire. Patrol boat HQ-380 <
Vietnamese sources claim they sank four Chinese ships and crippled two others. While these claims have not been verified, a photo of the PLAN destroyer Lanzhou, DDG 170 (Luyang II class, Type 052C) <
This i
s, without a doubt, the largest naval battle of the missile age, with the Vietnamese squadron alone carrying 72 SS-N-25 Uran anti-ship missiles. Assuming the PLAN formation carried approximately the same number of YJ-62 and YJ-83 missiles, casualties on both sides would be significant. The losses the Vietnamese have suffered are consistent with this assumption. There are no reports of collateral damage; however, if a fishing boat were hit by any of the aforementioned missiles, it would be obliterated immediately. Only time will tell if any innocent civilian vessels fail to return to port.
Finished, he paused to read the entry one last time before posting. Suddenly, Mac felt cold. Here he was, writing a sterile, dispassionate article about the greatest sea battle since the Pacific campaign of World War II. And while it was his “job” to give as accurate a depiction as he could, he’d largely ignored the cost in human life. Undoubtedly several hundreds of sailors on both sides had perished in that incredibly short, but equally intense battle. When one added the loss of life from the two PLAN frigates and over thirty-six Chinese merchant ships that had been torpedoed, the grand total was somewhere on the order of two thousand souls. At first, the number “felt” small, then Mac remembered that the war was only in its ninth day and he hadn’t included any of the casualties on land. Depressed, Mac hit the “Post” button on the screen, and then went to the kitchen to find something to fortify his coffee.
7 September 2016
1915 Local Time
Squadron Fifteen Headquarters
Guam
Captain Glenn Jacobs hurried into the conference room and sat down by Simonis; he still had five minutes to spare. The commodore said nothing; he just took another sip from his insulated travel mug. Judging by the smell, he was drinking peppermint herbal tea.
“Good evening, Commodore,” greeted Jacobs.
“Is it, CSO?” Simonis grunted quietly.
“It’s no worse than the others.”
Simonis only snorted. He then looked around the room, taking roll of the required attendees. After the first pass, a frown appeared on his face. When he finished the second, he looked at his CSO with irritation. “Where’s the OPS officer?”
“Rich stopped by the comms shack. We’ve received a message from Santa Fe. He should be here in a couple of minutes.”
“About time Halsey reported in,” growled Simonis. “He’s been out of touch for nearly forty-eight hours. I was about to declare him missing.”
“Warren’s had a pretty rough time, Commodore. His boat’s material condition has been a challenge for the past year. She’s an old boat that needs an overhaul.”
Simonis sneered. Halsey wasn’t his favorite commanding officer—the man had problems keeping to the schedule and his boat always seemed to have mechanical issues at the most inconvenient time. Jacobs’s defense only irritated the commodore more. “You don’t hear Dobson complaining. And his boat is even older.”
“That’s true, sir, and while Oklahoma City isn’t fresh out of an overhaul, she also isn’t overdue for one either.”
Simonis let it go. There was no point in discussing the issue further. At that moment, Walker entered the conference room, walking briskly. He made a beeline to Simonis, a single piece of paper in his right hand.
“Commodore, Santa Fe’s got a major problem,” said Walker, handing the paper to Simonis. “The aft bearing on the port main engine is overheating again.”
“I thought that deficiency had been repaired!” fumed the commodore.
“We made temporary repairs, sir, just before Santa Fe sortied with the rest of the squadron. Apparently it didn’t hold. On top of that, Halsey is reporting the same thing the other three skippers have already noted. The Littoral Alliance boats aren’t backing down anymore.”
Simonis snatched the paper from Walker and read the message from Santa Fe. His eyes narrowed as he read Halsey’s description of a near collision with a Japanese Soryu-class sub. Santa Fe’s skipper remarked that it was his opinion that the very close pass was intentional. Without speaking, Simonis handed the message to Jacobs. The CSO scanned it quickly, shaking his head as he read.
“Commodore, we’ve got to get our boats out of there. This spoiler tactic has run its course and is no longer effective,” Jacobs said with a mixture of concern and frustration.
“No shit, Sherlock!” snapped Simonis. “That is exactly what I’m going to do, even if I have to ram the point down the CNO’s throat!”
“Commodore,” interrupted the IT petty officer, “Washington is up on the VTC.”
“Understood,” Simonis replied. “Bring us online.”
“Aye, sir,” answered the petty officer. “White House, Squadron Fifteen is up online, how do you receive?”
“We have you on both audio and visual. Please stand by.”
Simonis watched as two small sub-displays, with the CNO’s conference room in the Pentagon and COMSUBPAC at Pearl Harbor, popped up in the lower corners. It was just a minute longer before Admiral Hughes, Rear Admiral Burroughs, and Dr. Patterson were all in view. Simonis reached over and hit the mute button on his control console, activating his microphone. He saw no purpose in waiting any longer.
“Good morning Dr. Patterson, Admiral Hughes, and good afternoon to you, Admiral Burroughs.”
“Good evening to you too, Commodore,” Patterson replied. The two admirals also sent their greetings.
Without waiting, Simonis launched immediately into his report. “Since my last SITREP, the situation in the South and East China Seas has continued to deteriorate. Two more Chinese merchant ships have been sunk, one medium-sized tanker and one bulk carrier. This brings today’s total to four ships thus far. While this represents a slight decrease in the number of sinkings from yesterday, I attribute the reduction to the continuing decline in overall shipping traffic in the affected areas.
“There is growing evidence that the Littoral Alliance has deployed more submarines into the East China Sea now that the Indian blockade has effectively closed down any approaches to the South China Sea. It is also apparent that China is deploying her own submarines, probably to interdict Japanese and South Korean shipping. My only asset in the East China Sea area has reported nearly a one hundred percent increase in submerged contacts.”
“Chuck,” interrupted Burroughs, “do you have any idea on what China is deploying?”
“Our best estimate, sir, is at least three Type 039 Songs, and a like number of Type 035 Mings. Oklahoma City held four Chinese boats at one time as they passed through his patrol area. The commanding officer indicated that a Ming appeared to be heading toward South Korea, while three Songs were heading southeast out into the Pacific.”
Burroughs shook his head. “The situation is getting worse by the day. Dr. Patterson, I recommend that a warning be issued to U.S. merchant ships to avoid Japanese and South Korean ports. We don’t want our ships steaming into an expanding war zone.”
“Concur with the recommendation,” echoed Hughes.
“All right, gentleman, I’ll forward your recommendation to the president,” Joanna responded.
“Thank you, ma’am,” said Hughes. Burroughs nodded his approval.
“Commodore, what is the current status of the spoiler campaign?” Joanna asked, moving on.
“Frankly, Dr. Patterson, it is rapidly losing effectiveness. All four commanding officers have reported it is getting harder and harder to break up any attack by a Littoral Alliance submarine. Within the last twenty-four hours, we have only forced a couple of their boats to withdraw without attacking. That’s about a thirty-three percent effectiveness rate. In addition, my COs have noted a significant increase in the use of active sonar by alliance boats, as well as aggressive maneuvering. As I reported in my last situation report, Commander Mitchell lost one of his long-endurance UUVs this morning when it was rammed and sunk by the Indian Akula. Now, Commander Halsey has just recently reported a very close pass, a ‘near collision,’ as he called it, by a Japanese Soryu-class submarine. In Commander Hals
ey’s opinion, the maneuver by the Japanese boat was intentional.”
Simonis paused momentarily to let his message sink in, but he wasn’t finished yet. Not by a long shot.
“Ma’am, it is clear that we have exhausted the element of surprise, and that Littoral Alliance submarines have been instructed, at the very least, to ignore us. Furthermore, I view the recent aggressive maneuvering as a more explicit warning for us to get out of their way. Finally, with the increased deployment of hostile units into the South and East China Seas, the risk to our submarines continues to grow, while mission effectiveness has declined sharply. It is my professional opinion, Dr. Patterson, that we can no longer sustain the spoiler campaign, and that the probability of us losing a submarine is becoming more and more likely. I, therefore, most strongly urge the president to order the withdrawal of my squadron from the declared war zones.”
There, he’d said his piece. He’d been respectful, but Simonis hoped the bluntness of his message would finally shake some sense into the senior decision-makers. Patterson nodded slightly, while Hughes and Burroughs both looked composed. This wasn’t the first time they’d heard the squadron commodore’s strong views on the matter.
“I appreciate your views and concerns, Captain,” replied Joanna. “And to be equally frank, the recent actions taken by Littoral Alliance submarines isn’t the only warning we’ve been given. Late last night, we received demarches from Japan, Vietnam, and India denouncing our uneven treatment of their forces involved in the conflict.” There was no longer any pretense that the United States was not involved; the Asian alliance missives had demanded that they make it official, openly announcing their position.
“All three feel we were providing aid to the Chinese in their war, and they insist that if we were going to officially stay out of the fight, that we needed to declare our neutrality and withdraw our forces from the area. They would not be responsible for the consequences if we did not do so.”
