by Larry Bond
She’d spent part of the flight out to Hawaii trying to determine more accurately how bad the environmental damage was going to be. Terms like “best case” and “conservative estimate” didn’t really seem appropriate. In the end, she could only draw broad limits around an unhappy answer, but the damage from the nuclear explosions was still going to be considerably less than what had already been inflicted by the sinking of nearly three dozen tankers. And then there was the political “fallout” that was likely to be just as devastating. But the war had already killed tens of thousands, and threatened to slip over the edge into a nuclear nightmare.
Any choice had costs. She could accept paying this price if it could stop a war.
24
PREPARATION
14 September 2016
0830 Local Time
Littoral Alliance Headquarters
Okutama, Nishitama District
Tokyo, Japan
Minister Hisagi and Admiral Orihara filed out of the Hirano estate’s dojo along with the rest of the alliance’s formal working group members. It had been a short meeting. There was little to discuss militarily. Attacks against Chinese merchant ships had fallen to almost zero, and those attacks that took place were very close to the Chinese coast, where defenses were more robust. The South Korean representative reported that they had lost one of their Type 214 submarines near Qingdao in the Yellow Sea.
Submarine attacks against Chinese deep-ocean semi-submersible oil rigs were also disappointing. Only one oil rig had been sunk, requiring four torpedoes before it finally capsized. Another two were seriously damaged. Although they were assessed as repairable, they had temporarily stopped pumping oil. Unfortunately, the PLAN responded quickly to this new avenue of attack and began forward-deploying ASW helicopters to the oil rigs. Freed from their responsibility of patrolling the shipping lanes, Chinese maritime patrol aircraft now concentrated their ASW searches near the drill sites, further complicating the approach for alliance submarines.
There had been no cruise missile strikes in the last two days, while the attacking ships and submarines returned to base to rearm. Orihara again emphasized that Project Ryusei would help to alleviate the gaps between cruise missile strikes. Of greater concern were the reports from South Korea and Vietnam that they were running low on land-attack cruise missiles. The Korean representative said the production of the Hyunmoo 3 missiles had been stepped up, but it would be at least two weeks before the alliance would see an appreciable increase in their inventory. India promised to see what they could do to resupply Vietnam with 3M-14E Klub land-attack missiles. Unfortunately, a significant number of India’s stock had been expended in the opening attacks against the Pakistanis.
There was good news from the Vietnam front. Thanks to India’s transfer of two Su-30MKI Flanker squadrons, the Chinese Air Force had suffered considerable losses to their frontline air regiments. When combined with classic Vietnamese SAM traps, Chinese ground-support air strikes had been reduced by nearly half. Deprived of adequate air support, the Chinese Army’s advance had slowed significantly.
The working group took the “good news/bad news” update brief with guarded optimism, but the topic of discussion had nothing to do with the execution of the war. No, it dealt with the growing civil unrest in several Littoral Alliance nations. Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, and Hanoi had all had large civilian demonstrations demanding an end to hostilities. Much of the anger behind the protests was directly tied to the Chinese ballistic missile attacks on the capital cities, but a number of Internet blogs and social networking sites were throwing gasoline on the fire. One Japanese Web site had leaked the existence of the Beidou jamming system, and claimed the military was using the civilian population as a shield. Hisagi was incensed.
“The individual responsible should be tried for treason,” he hissed.
Orihara laughed cynically. “The leak was undoubtedly a Chinese information operation targeted against the people of our nations’ capitals. They either discovered or deduced the countermeasure we put in place, and are now trying to shift the blame on to us for the civilian deaths.”
“The Internet is proving to be a curse,” Hisagi grumbled.
“Indeed, and some Web sites are far more damaging than others. Take that Bywater site, for example.”
“You mean the one run by the Canadian?”
“Yes! He is particularly well informed. He must have spies all over the world!” Orihara vented. “His recent analysis on the mining of Liaoning was disturbingly accurate. It was as if he was reading our own after-action reports.”
Hisagi stopped dead in his tracks and grabbed the admiral by the arm; there was great concern on the foreign minister’s face. “Are you suggesting someone in the alliance is feeding him information?”
Orihara sighed. “I don’t know, Shuhei-san. It’s a possibility, but this McMurtrie fellow is, by all accounts, a very bright man. His rendition of the Battle of Spratly Island was even more detailed than the Vietnamese Navy’s official report. Regardless, his blog has a huge following within the alliance and throughout the world. And now that he’s working for CNN, his postings carry even greater weight, and they are not necessarily in our best interest.”
Both men suddenly went silent as they saw Komamura walking down the hall toward his office. His head was down, his posture slumped, and his feet moved in uneven small steps. Hisagi shook his head in disappointment and pity. “He’s been drinking again.”
“I’m afraid so,” Orihara replied sternly. “He’s been very depressed since his discovery of the improved warhead. That knowledge is weighing heavily on him.”
“It’s the memory of his mother,” Hisagi volunteered. “She died from cancer caused by radiation from the Nagasaki bombing. Her death was slow and painful. Her death haunts him.”
Orihara looked again at the retreating figure. His face now showed understanding and compassion instead of disdain. “I did not know this. It explains much,” he said.
The admiral turned back to Hisagi. Orihara stood almost at attention and swallowed hard. “Forgive me, Minister, for what I’m about to say, but I must. I believe Professor Komamura is becoming a significant security risk. His questionable mental and emotional stability is becoming a threat to the very alliance his genius has inspired.”
Hisagi’s expression suddenly became pained, and he turned away from the admiral. Orihara expected the minister to lash out in anger, but instead he slowly looked back; there was a sad look on his face. Nodding, he said, “As much as I hate to agree with you, Admiral, I find your concerns to be valid. We cannot remove him, though. The other alliance members would never tolerate that. But we can watch him closely. For his own good, as well as that of the alliance.”
14 September 2016
0800 Local Time
August 1st Building, Ministry of National Defense Compound
Beijing, People’s Republic of China
General Su pointed to the map of northern Vietnam with his laser pointer. “As of early this morning, PLA units now control all five northeastern provinces and most of Lai Chau, an adjacent northwestern province. Our rate of advance has slowed, due to the arrival of Vietnamese reinforcements and reduced air support.” Su made sure he had eye contact with General Wang, head of the PLAAF, when he finished the sentence.
“Our casualties are running higher than expected, but not excessively so,” Su continued. “The 13th, 41st, and 47th Group Armies have suffered the most and have been reinforced by the 20th and 31st Group Armies. This leaves only the 54th Group Army as an operational reserve; however, three reinforcement group armies have finished embarking their trains and are en route to the Guangzhou Military Region. That concludes my summary. Are there any questions?”
“General Su,” opened the minister of defense, “in committing two of the reserve group armies to the northeast so soon, I’m concerned that we are leaving the northwest flank open to counterattack. How long before the reinforcements arrive and are combat ready?”
/>
Su nodded and illuminated that area on the map. “General Wen, once the reinforcements arrive, I plan to shift the 54th Group Army to the west to shore up that front. This should be accomplished in approximately one week. Fortunately, the hideous terrain affects Vietnamese tanks as much as it does ours. Moving mechanized units just takes more time. While there is some risk with this deployment, I believe it is acceptable.”
Ye Jin, the head of the logistics department, was next. “General, with the reinforcements, we will have committed two-thirds of our frontline army units to the assault on Vietnam. Shouldn’t we consider mobilizing some units of the ready reserve?”
Su frowned. Mobilizing reserves was a political hot button. Militarily it was the right answer, but some members of the CMC argued that it would have a negative effect on an already unhappy people. To hell with their concerns, Su thought. He was a soldier and he would give a soldier’s answer. “You are correct, General Ye. We’ll need more troops as garrison forces for the provinces we’ve occupied. I don’t have an accurate number for you right now, at least several divisions, but the sooner we start, the better.”
If Zhang or Shi were unhappy with Su’s response, they didn’t show it. Chen had been ambivalent on the issue, his views shifting back and forth depending on who had talked to him last. However, it was the president who responded. “Very well, General Su. This commission will consider your recommendation. Please provide us with the force requirements and mobilization timetable and we’ll discuss it later.”
“Yes, Comrade President. You’ll have the figures by this afternoon,” replied Su. The president’s answer wasn’t what he wanted to hear, but at least the topic was now formally on the commission’s docket for discussion.
Chen rose and cleared his throat, commanding the commission’s attention. “Fellow members, I appreciate the effort and forethought you put into your progress reports. But while they are encouraging, I’m beginning to sense stagnation in our war effort.
“We’ve finally contained the submarine threat in our waters, and Admiral Wei has said that the first convoys will be ready to set sail in a few days. However, the performance of our own submarine campaign is less than impressive. I understand there are many reasons for this, but comrades, we have to find a way to do better.
“And I’m not just singling out our navy. The picture in the air and on the ground shows progress, but the rate of improvement is slow. Let me be blunt. Our military position in this war has improved, but it’s not improving fast enough.”
Chen walked over to the theater map on the large-screen display and pointed to three formations in the middle of the Philippine Sea. “The Americans now have three carrier strike groups within a day’s travel of the South and East China Seas. All four of their SSGNs have deployed, and the two in the U.S. Pacific Fleet are likely within striking distance as I speak. Their submarine forces in the Pacific have also been sortied—there are currently four attack submarines at Guam. Three of them are of the new Virginia type. The United States has amassed a huge armada on our very doorstep, and should they become directly involved, we will be hard-pressed to stop them.”
Alarmed, General Xiao interrupted, “But Comrade President, surely our anti-ship ballistic missiles will keep them at bay?”
“We are still in the process of developing the entire system,” cautioned Hu. “The missile flies, and flies well, but there are problems involved with targeting the weapons that we are still working on. In addition, we’ve redeployed many of the launchers to augment the attacks on Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. We might be able to handle one carrier, but not three.”
“It’s their submarines that will break us,” interjected Wei firmly. “They can wreak far more havoc than the Littoral Alliance could ever conceive of doing. The two SSGNs alone can carry more land-attack missiles than have been fired on us thus far. If the United States joins the Littoral Alliance, and follows their strategy, the vast majority of our oil infrastructure is within range of their Tomahawks.”
“This is an unnecessary academic discussion,” objected Wang, obviously frustrated. “Ambassador Yang’s reports clearly show the United States is heavily divided. Many of its people and political leaders are strongly advocating neutrality, particularly after the Littoral Alliance rebuffed their president. And history shows that when America is divided, it usually doesn’t act.”
“You’re correct in saying America is divided, General Wang,” observed Shi Peng, the chief of the political department. “But the ambassador also notes the division is almost a fifty/fifty split between neutrality and joining the alliance. In short, President Myles will anger half of his population regardless of what he does. This makes him potentially very dangerous, much more so than the statistics would suggest. And may I remind you that we haven’t accepted his proposals either.”
Vice President Zhang Fei looked depressed. “If the Americans are considering joining the alliance, perhaps a limited nuclear demonstration, say on a Japanese target, would give them something to consider.”
Both Chen and Su strongly disagreed. “Absolutely not!” cried Su. “My apologies, Comrade Vice President, but if the United States is sitting on the fence, then such a move would only push them over onto the alliance side.”
“I agree with General Su,” stated Chen strongly. “Such a move would almost certainly work against us.”
“Then what can we do?” asked Zhang.
“We must push harder, move faster,” declared Chen. “Commanders, we currently have the advantage, and we need to exploit it to the fullest extent possible. I expect you to be bold, even daring. We must take more risks if we are to conclude this conflict in our favor. If this war descends into a long-term struggle, then even if we win, we lose.”
14 September 2016
1030 Local Time
Squadron Fifteen Headquarters
Guam
The summons to the squadron headquarters arrived mid-morning. Frankly, Jerry was very surprised that the call hadn’t come earlier—it had been over thirty-six hours since the VTC on Monday night. He suspected Simonis was still deeply troubled by his recommendation to the president to use nuclear weapons as a war-ending strategy. The commodore had been in a state of total disbelief when the VTC ended, and left without saying a single word. Everyone stood in amazement as he just walked out of the conference room. No ranting, no orders, nothing.
Jerry again skipped the car ride and walked to the squadron headquarters building. It was a pleasant morning and the stroll helped to clear his head. He fully expected a major blowout with Simonis, and he needed to be thinking clearly. After signing in at the quarterdeck, he collected his visitor’s badge and passed through the turnstiles, taking the left-hand passageway toward the squadron admin spaces. As he passed by one of the offices, a voice called out to him, “Commander Mitchell!”
Jerry turned to see someone poking his head out of an open door. It was Commander Walker, Simonis’s operations officer. “Do you have a minute, Captain?” he asked.
Glancing at his watch, Jerry saw he still had five minutes before his meeting with Simonis. “Yeah, sure. What can I do for you?”
Walker motioned for Jerry to come into his office, then closed the door behind him. He looked a little agitated. “The order to implement your nuke demo suggestion came in earlier this morning. We’ve been tasked to carry it out, and the commodore is not a happy camper. He’s been bubbling like a stopped-up volcano all morning. Your meeting won’t be very pleasant, I’m afraid.”
Jerry nodded. “I figured we’d get the job. I was pretty sure the air force didn’t have a weapon that could get as deep as we need to go.”
“Well, I wouldn’t admit that if I were you. It’ll only make him madder.”
“I’ll keep it in mind, although I don’t think it will matter one iota what I say. He’s not very open to people who disagree with him.”
Walker smiled wearily. “You got that right.”
“Thanks for the he
ads-up, though. I’ll try not to antagonize him any more than I already have.” Jerry turned to leave, but Walker spoke up again.
“Ah, Captain … I also wanted to thank you for sticking up for Warren Halsey the other day.”
Jerry pivoted to face Walker again. Confused, he said, “I wasn’t aware that Halsey needed defending. I only presented what I believed had happened.”
“Warren was a close friend,” Walker explained slowly. “He wasn’t the best submarine skipper, but he was a competent one. Unfortunately, that’s not good enough for our commodore. It didn’t help that Santa Fe was not in the best of shape. Warren and Captain Simonis had a pretty tumultuous relationship; the commodore can be brutally harsh at times. I just wanted to let you know that I appreciated someone, other than myself and the CSO, speaking up for Warren, that’s all.”
“You’re welcome,” Jerry replied. “And I’m sorry that you lost a friend. It’s never easy, is it?”
“No, it’s not,” responded Walker quietly. Jerry could see there was still pain in his eyes. Clearing his throat, he added, “If there is anything I can do for you, just let me know. I like to pay my debts.”
Initially, Jerry was going to tell Walker that wasn’t necessary. But before he could say anything, a nagging question resurfaced in his mind. “Now that you mention it, there is something I’d appreciate you looking into.”
“Name it!” Walker said eagerly.
“Can your intel shop get me any information on the current CO of the Indian Akula, INS Chakra? The guy is a certified pain in the ass, and we’re likely to run into him again. I’d like to know who I’m dealing with.”
“I’ll get the request into the system immediately and ask for an expedited response.”
Jerry thanked Walker and shook his hand. Jerry then marched quickly to the commodore’s reception area. The first-class yeoman in the outer office saw him approaching and immediately rose. “Good morning, Captain. I’ll let the commodore know you’re here.”
