by Dale Brown
the fleet, sir, " Curtis said. "The proper warnings were issued, the
commanders in the field knew the situation "I take full responsibility,
sir, " Preston said uneasily. "I should have brought the matter to your
attention immediately." The President stared at Preston but his eyes
seemed dead. After a moment he shook his head and waved a hand at
Preston. "It's not your fault, Thomas. If you had told me that the
Chinese were ready to attack the fleet, I would've said you were crazy
and told you to continue as planned." He paused, then said, "All right.
We've got several dozen dead sailors, a damaged aircraft carrier, and
apparently a live Filipino vice president asking for our assistance.
What do we do about it?"
"JCS has devised an operation that we think can send a clear message to
China, sir . The President was obviously still hesitating. That single
nuclear explosion, a relatively small burst that occurred ten thousand
miles away, was hamstringing this President, casting doubts that only
served to increase his anger and frustrationlike Reagan's inner torment
about the American hostages held in Lebanon, the nuclear explosion and
the fear of an escalating conflict between the United States and China
was plunging the President into indecision. "Sir, I've got to reiterate
this point: every day we hesitate in sending offensive forces into Guam
and put them into a position to act, the worse our situation will be. We
will reach a point where we will be unable to respond at all to stop
China. It's even more important to send the Air Battle Force in right
now, Curtis continued, "because they now become the only offensive
weapon we have against the Chinese in the Philippines, except submarines
and long-range cruise missiles." He referred to a wall map of the area
as he spoke: "We won't risk sending any more warships into the Celebes
Sea, and the South China Sea region and the seas within the Philippines
are too dangerous or shallow. China controls the south, west, and north
sides of the Philippines, and they control the South China Sea itself.
"However, they do not control the east side of the Philippines, and
that's their weakness. Air strikes from either carrierbased or
land-based bombers can come in from the east and strike at Chinese
positions "Using Doctor Masters' computer systems on Guam as well as the
reconnaissance data from both the RC- 135 flight and his lightweight
satellites, the STRATFOR has developed several strike options designed
to achieve an entire range of results. The plans require using the Air
Battle Force. Without Ranger or another carrier group available, we
simply don't have the counter-air defensive capability on Guam right
now. The Air Battle Force is the only unit we can send on short notice
that has the firepower we need. "In short, I think Masters has developed
a workable plan for dealing with the Chinese in the south Philippines.
We see a pretty good chance of success, even with anticipated Chinese
reinforcements in the Celebes. The primary plan is relatively small,
controlled, and does not directly involve any carrier battle groups or
any Marine Expeditionary Units. Masters' war-game computer calls the
plan Operation WINTER HAMM.R... "Winter?" Vice President Martindale
retorted. "You're going to wait until winter to do something?" The
Vice President was not known for being too swift. "The name was simply a
random combination of words made by his war-gaming computer, and its use
is strictly internal. We can pick a different name for media purposes
if you wish "Just let me know what you're proposing to send over there,
" the President said irritably. "How much equipment, how many men. "The
first Air Battle Wing, which is the only one currently organized, "
Curtis replied, "consists of eighteen B-52 bombers, ten F-111G bombers,
twenty F-15B, C, and E-model fighters, twelve F-4 fighters, three KC- 10
tankers, six KC- 135 tankers, one E-3C AWACS plane, one RC-135 radar
plane, one EC- 135 airborne command post, three C-5 cargo planes, and
ten C-141 cargo planes. It totals about two thousand men and women. The
current force includes three B-2 stealth bombers as well, which have
been training for use with the Air Battle Force. We also have the use
of the destroyers Hewitt and Fije and the cruiser Sterett, which were
part of the Ranger battle group; the two destroyers carry Tomahawk
cruise missiles that can go in ahead of the bombers and take out
seaborne radars and large vessels. The Second Air Battle Wing has about
twice as many troops and equipment, but can't be assembled for another
thirty to sixty days. "According to our intelligence figures, the
Chinese have approximately ten thousand troops in Zamboanga itself, plus
another five thousand afloat in the Celebes, " Curtis continued,
"including a full Marine regiment on Mindanao and another afloat. "They
have the equivalent of three surface action groups in the Celebes, which
is twelve capital warships including submarines in each group. We have
mapped out at least twenty different possible surface-to-air missile
sites surrounding the Celebes. They have closed off or actively patrol
all sea-lanes and all air routes around the southern Philippines for a
radius of a thousand miles from Zamboanga. "In addition, they have
another twenty thousand troops, thirty more ships, and at least a
hundred more aircraft in Puerto Princesa, only five hundred miles away.
And this is only a quarter of what they have sent to Luzon: Clark Air
Base and Subic Bay Naval Base both have as many Chinese troops and
machines there as the United States once had there at the height of the
Vietnam War-"
"Wait a minute, " the President said in complete surprise. "You want to
take on fifteen thousand Chinese troops with only two thousand men?
That's it?"
"Sir, numbers don't make the difference here, " Curtis ex plained. "The
Air Battle Force has the striking power of two, perhaps three
aircraft-carrier battle groups, and they have speed and flexibility that
the carriers themselves don't. We have the air power to force the
Chinese out of Zamboanga and perhaps out of the south Philippines
altogether. We need to activate this unit as soon as possible. I
recommend to you that we activate the Air Battle Force and deploy them
to Guam. Once they're there, we can present a more detailed plan to
you. "I object to General Curtis characterizing this group as the
ultimate solution to this problem, " Preston said. "I am very much in
support of the Air Battle Force concept, but General Curtis is
fantasizing, sir." To Curtis he said, "I'm on your side, Wilbur. I
believe in the work you've done. The Air Battle Force concept is great,
and you've implemented it superbly. No one is questioning it or you.
But we have to be more realistic or optimistic-we have to be
ultraconservative. We've been surprised so many times in this conflict
that we have to increase our requirements that much more to compose a
credible picture." To the President he said, "We can build a fighting
f
orce to take the Philippines, sir, but do you want to pay the price to
do it?"
"The Air Battle Force doesn't fight alone, Thomas, " Curtis said.
"WINTER HAMMER includes the Wisconsin battle group. Six ships, led by
the battleship Wisconsin, are at Pearl Harbor ready to go. This group
has trained with the Air Battle Force in maritime operations, so when
you do decide to send the ABF, they'll operate well together. In the
meantime they can act as an escort for the Ranger when they're ready to
pull out of Indonesia, and they can monitor ship and submarine activity
in the Celebes from long range. They also carry Tomahawk cruise
missiles, which will be important if we do start hostilities with the
Chinese. "The task force also includes the Second Marine Pre-positioning
Force based on Mariana Island near Guam. One amphibious assault
carrier, one tank landing ship, two escorts, two support ships, twenty
helicopters, thirty armored vehicles, five thousand Marines and naval
personnel. Half of the force is there now-the other half deployed by
air from Hawaii, pick up their ships on Mariana, then embark to their
standby positions in the Philippine Sea. It will take at least five
days for this group to arrive on station. We send a flight of P-3 Orion
sub hunters from Japan or Guam with them until they get some air support
from shore or from a carrier group."
"An invasion force, " the President said. "You're recommending a
full-scale invasion... A telephone in front of the President buzzed;
Cesare picked it up and listened, then replaced it on its cradle. "Press
release from the Chinese government, coming in from the wire services, "
he told the President. "Communications is sending down a copy. A few
moments later a Secret Service agent on duty arrived and passed a
computer printout to Cesare, who remained standing as he read it to the
National Security Council: "'The Chinese government is claiming that an
American military strike force was detected and intercepted over the
Celebes Sea, ' "Cesare read." 'The strike force, composed they say of
several large subsonic bombers believed to be B-52 bombers from the
island of Guam, was escorted by fighters from an aircraft carrier. They
claim the Philippine government requested that the Chinese People's
Liberation Army Air Force, some of whom were stationed at military bases
in the southern Philippines at the request of the Philippine government,
help defend them. "'The Chinese claim they launched a small defense
force of fighters, which managed to drive the bombers away. They claim
four Chinese fighters were downed and two American fighters were shot
down Cesare read ahead, then added, "'No mention of the strike against
the Ranger, except that American warships also threatened several
Filipino coastal towns with bombers and rocket attacks, and that an
unarmed Chinese supply ship carrying medicine and food to Filipino
refugees in western Mindanao came under attack by an American bomber.
They go on to charge that the United States is trying to retake the
Philippines by force and blames us again for the nuclear-weapon
detonation near Palawan and for threatening the world with thermonuclear
chaos.'"
"Those bastards, " the President grumbled angrily. Then, almost as an
afterthought, he turned to Curtis: "We did not have any B-52s involved
in this mission over the Celebes Sea, did we, General?"
"Absolutely not, sir. We have no bombers of any size stationed in Diego
Garcia, Australia, Japan, or anywhere west of Guam... "Could it have
been someone else? The Australians? Brunei? Vietnam? Australia has
F-1 11 bombers, right . . .?"
"Unlikely, sir. Our AWACS radar plane picked up no other aircraft in
the area. "What about ground forces? It wasn't a Marine or special
operations attack? Anything like that?"
"Nothing authorized by me or any of my staff, sir, " Curtis said. His
mind began running through a multitude of other
possibilitiesmercenaries, a rogue combat unit, perhaps even the downed
Tomcat crews blowing things up to mask their escape-but he quickly
discarded each one. "Sir, it's an obvious propaganda story. When the
CIA investigates the story, they'll discover it wasn't a bomber
attack-they'll probably find there was no attack at all. The Chinese
released the story because of its propaganda value-they want to be the
first to complain, because it shifts blame on the other party." The
President had also discarded all other possibilities, for his face
became darker and angrier by the second. "Those bastards, " he muttered.
"They attack our unarmed reconnaissance aircraft and an aircraft
carrier, then claim we ye trying to start a war. And even if we admit
that the Ranger was attacked by Chinese antiship missiles, it makes us
look even worse-we're going to get blamed for trying to start a war,
then criticized for not doing a good job of it. Bastards . . The
President fell silent, as did the rest of the Council. This was the
turning point, Curtis thought grimly: this was the point at which all
presidents facing a conflict had to decide whether to explore more
peaceful, less hazardous options, or go ahead with preparing for battle.
Like his famous relative, this President wanted to avoid a conflict-he
would do almost anything to avoid going to war, or even doing something
that might threaten war. It was simply not in his nature. But he had
sixty dead sailors and two damaged warships to think about as well. When
the American people learned about this incident, which was bound to
happen at any minute, what would they say? Would they expect a military
response? Would they understand if the President of the United States
still tried to pursue a peaceful solution? "Mr. President, I'm ready
to brief you at any time on WINTER HAMMER..."
"General, I can't consider sending in more bombers and fighters now, "
the President said angrily. "I'm supposed to stand up in front of the
American people and deny that we sent bombers to attack the
Philippines-and then the press learns of all those bombers sitting over
there on Guam? I look bad enough as it is."
"We can disprove each and every accusation by the Chinese, " Curtis
said. "We can prove we had unarmed reconnaissance planes up there, not
bombers, and that the Chinese fighters attacked first. We can also
prove that the Ranger was hundreds of miles from the Philippines and no
threat to any coastal towns or Chinese positions, and that their
antiship missile attack on the fleet was unprovoked." But the President
seemed distant, worried, unreachable. "You don't have to submit to this
blackmail, sir. We've got dozens of options. "I know, I know . . . He
paused, his gaze scanning his advisers arranged around him, although it
was obvious he didn't notice any of them-it was his way of making tough
decisions. He made another glance at Thomas Preston, who was grim-faced
but remained silent. The President was alone with his decision: "I know
I'm being too cautious, Wilbur, but you've got to understand, " he said,
"I need
cooperation with the other countries in the region before I
commit American troops to fight the Chinese. The world is touchier than
a warm bottle of nitroglycerin right now. If I send your bombers and
fighters into the Philippines to square off against the Chinese, I need
to make sure that the American people realize we've exhausted every
possible option first. . "We've got the authorization you need, sir, "
Curtis said. "Second Vice President Samar."
"Samar? What does he have to do with this... ?" President Taylor
asked. "Samar is a legitimate head of the government, sir, " Curtis
said. "He is also the governor of the Commonwealth of Mindanao, which is
virtually a republic of its own. His designated representative has
formally requested assistance from the United States. That's the legal
spark we need to move. Danahall sniffed aloud and shook his head.
"That's not even close to the truth, General . "It doesn't have to be
the absolute truth, Dennis, " Curtis pointed out. "We're not talking
about a court case here-we're looking for justification to act, and we
have it "Unless Samar is dead, " the Vice President said, "in which case
Teguina retains control of the government and becomes de facto governor
of Mindanao. "Then we go in and rescue Samar, " Curtis said. "Ambassador
O'Day was given information on how to contact Samarwe Il arrange for a
specialzoperations group to go in and get him out so he can make an
announcement to the world that he is resisting the Chinese."
"But we need to be in a better position to react when we get Samar out,
sir, " Curtis said to the President. "Sir, you have to order the Air
Battle Force into Guam and the Marines to deploy into the Philippine
Sea, and have them prepare for action. If we wait too long, Samar's
militia will collapse and Mindanao will fall-and then nothing short of a
nuclear war will dislodge the Chinese from the Philippines." The
President thought about this, scanning the faces around him; then, to
General Curtis: "Okay, Wilbur, you got the green light. Get the Air
Battle Force moving to Andersen as quickly as possible. You're also
authorized to deploy the Army and Marine Prezpositioned Forces as you
