by Jason Ayres
The asteroid had landed in a sparsely populated area in Southern Algeria, close to the border with Mali. This was one of the driest parts of the Sahara and, apart from a few nomadic dwellers and travellers along the road from Béchar to Gao, there were few people in the area at the time.
Those who were unfortunate enough to be in the immediate impact zone didn’t stand a chance. Death was instant. As the mushroom cloud rose up into the atmosphere, on the ground a shock wave spread outwards at devastating speed, incinerating everything in its path. Within 100 miles of the impact site, all that was left was a smoking black hole.
Those poor souls who saw it coming had nowhere to hide. They stood horrified as a huge, rolling wave of burning black smoke bore down on them at hundreds of miles an hour. They had as much chance of escaping it as they’d have had if they had been standing on a beach watching a tsunami approach.
A number of smaller settlements in Mali, Algeria and Niger were completely destroyed.
Gradually the shock wave began to thin out and the devastation lessened as it spread outwards. By the time it reached the capital cities of Niamey and Bamako, hundreds of miles away, it had lessened to the point that it blew out all the windows in the cities, and knocked anyone standing in the street clean over, but most of the inhabitants survived.
The massive boom created by the blast was heard thousands of miles away, across the whole of Africa, as far north as Scandinavia, and as far east as India.
By the time the sound reached those areas, the people knew it was coming. Within minutes of the impact there were few people in the world who didn’t know about it, such was the speed of social media and global news coverage.
Within an hour, the news channels were showing satellite pictures of the impact zone. The whole area appeared as a large black stain, spreading outwards. More pictures, taken from a space telescope in orbit, soon emerged, showing the asteroid actually hitting Earth. Josh and Alice were watching from their home in Oxford.
“You see, they must have known where it would hit,” remarked Alice. “It can’t have been just a coincidence, the telescope being trained on that exact spot.”
All over the UK, offices, shops and factories ground to a halt as employees rushed to the nearest screen to see what was happening.
Not since the terrorist attacks of 9/11 had so many people been glued to their screens, horrified and fascinated in equal measure by what was unfolding in front of them.
The news coverage had cut to the front door of 10 Downing Street where the Prime Minister was insisting there was no cause for alarm. He expressed his sympathy for the people of the Sahara and pledged that British aid would be forthcoming.
Back in the studio, Seema had another expert in for interview, this time one of the channel’s own people, a popular geologist- turned -TV presenter. He had recently had an award-winning documentary all about earthquakes, volcanoes and other natural phenomena broadcast on the channel, so seemed the ideal choice to reassure the populace.
“So, James, we’ve just heard from the Prime Minister there, who has assured us we are not in any danger. Can you elaborate any more on the situation?”
“Well, the first thing,” he began, “is to say that we’ve been extremely lucky.”
“In what way?” asked Seema. “With all due respect, it’s hard to see how Earth being hit by a 350 metre-wide asteroid can be classed as lucky.”
“What I mean is,” continued James, “that we’ve been extremely lucky that the asteroid hit where it did.”
“Unless you happen to live in Mali, presumably?” responded Seema.
“Obviously my thoughts go out to the people of that region, and I wasn’t suggesting they were in any way less important than us. What I mean is that it could have been a lot worse. For example, had it hit a densely populated area, the loss of life could have been enormous.”
“Can you give us some indication of what sort of scale you are talking about?” asked Seema.
“Well, to put it in perspective,” he said, “if it had hit London, the entire city would have been instantly vaporised. Most of Southern England would have been wiped out in the shock wave. Anyone this side of Birmingham would have had very little chance of survival.”
“That’s quite a terrifying thought,” remarked Seema.
“It certainly is.” replied James. “But even that is nothing to what would have happened had it landed in the sea. If that had been the case, then the huge tsunamis it would have created would have absolutely devastated coastal areas around the world. We could have been talking about a death toll in the billions.”
“In other words, it could have been a lot worse,” said Seema. “Thank-you, James, for joining us this afternoon. Now I am just hearing that, due to concerns about ash in the atmosphere, all domestic and international air travel is being temporarily suspended. More on that as soon as we have it.”
Like 9/11, it was one of those days that everyone watching remembered where they were when they heard about it. Most had been busy going about their daily business.
Kaylee was working in her office at home, a spare bedroom that she was planning to turn into a nursery, ready for the patter of tiny feet. A message flashed up in the news feed constantly running on the interactive desk she was using: “BREAKING NEWS: ASTEROID HITS EARTH”.
She immediately flicked on to a news website to be confronted by the apocalyptic images in front of her. She sent a message to Charlie: Turn on the news.
Charlie was sitting in yet another tedious meeting when his smartwatch buzzed. All around the room, others were getting similar messages. The meeting was abandoned and they headed back to their open-plan office where small groups of people were already gathered around the screens.
Kent and Debbie were in the pub, watching on the big screen along with Andy, their only customer.
“If this is the end of the world, then can I have a free pint?” enquired Andy, hopefully.
It was unlike Kent to give anything away, but on this occasion he relented.
“I think we could all do with a large brandy,” he said. Even Debbie, who didn’t normally drink, had one.
Dan was in the factory, loading pallets with a forklift truck when he heard the news. One of the younger lads gave him the details. Once Dan had heard the details of where it had hit and the expected casualties, he callously remarked, “Good – they were all foreigners.”
The young lad was shocked by Dan’s comments, but he didn’t say anything. Nobody ever did. Dan had a reputation for being not only a racist, but also a workplace bully, and it was easier to say nothing than risk becoming a victim.
Hannah was at home on a rest day. She was listening to the radio and doing housework when the news came in. She thought about going in to work in case she was needed, but it seemed there was no immediate problem at home. People weren’t running riot or panicking in the streets.
She also thought about whether she should get Jess from school early but also decided against it. The news coverage was stressing that there was no danger to the UK, so she saw no need to worry her daughter by upsetting her routine.
Jess herself didn’t find out until later in the afternoon. The teachers became aware of what was happening quite quickly but decided to keep it from the children until they knew exactly what the situation was. At 2.30pm, the headmaster called an extraordinary assembly, and the whole school shuffled into the hall.
He picked his words carefully, stressing that there was no cause for alarm. Even so, some of the younger children looked scared and there were a few tears. By the time the assembly was over it was home time, and the children were able to return to the comforting arms of their parents.
One of the last people to find out was Lauren. She’d gone home with a slightly rotund man in his forties who’d been singing old nineties indie hits. He wasn’t really her type, but he’d made her laugh with his cheeky banter, so when he suggested she might like to come back for a “coffee”, she’d jumped at the c
hance.
She’d eventually crawled away from his place around 7am when he had to get up for work, having had very little sleep. Not due in the pub until the evening, she headed straight to bed where she slept off her night’s exertions. When she eventually woke up, around 4pm, she’d missed the whole thing.
Chapter Nine – 10th October 2029 (11.30am)
Nearly six months had passed since the asteroid strike and the after-effects of that day had been felt across the whole planet.
The initial estimates put the death toll from the direct impact at about 25,000 which seemed a remarkably low amount. But this figure took no account of the long-term effects, many of which were not immediately apparent.
The huge cloud of ash and dust thrown up by the impact had circled the world in a matter of days. Air travel was grounded for several weeks due to safety concerns. This had happened on occasions in the past in regions where there were active volcanoes, but never on a global scale or for so long.
Things were exacerbated by an increase in seismic activity around the area of the impact. The force of the asteroid strike had done more than merely blow away the surface of the area it had hit. The effects had reached deep underground.
Over the next few weeks there were a series of earthquakes along the sides of the African tectonic plate, adding to the woes of the people in the region. But it was the accompanying volcanic eruptions across Africa, the Canary Islands and Europe which really did the damage. These eruptions spewed huge amounts of sulphur dioxide into the upper atmosphere, adding to the ash and dust already thrown up by the asteroid.
During those weeks there were some spectacular sunsets around the world. People gathered on the banks of the Thames each day to marvel at the vivid red and gold skies.
It was an artist’s dream. It may have looked very pretty, but the effects of the poor air quality were already having a noticeable effect on the more vulnerable among the population. Asthmatics suffered an increasing number of attacks, and there was a sharp increase in the number of other respiratory illnesses being reported. These were just the short-term effects. The longer-term implications were not immediately obvious.
With the world covered by the ash cloud, the sun’s rays began to struggle to get through. In the UK, the gloriously sunny start to the spring gave way to a cloudy, dull and cool May.
This didn’t raise many eyebrows among the British people. Despite global warming, they had long memories and were used to disappointing weather in the warmer months. It was something to talk about in the street when bumping into friends.
Elsewhere in the world, things were a lot more noticeable, particularly around the North Pole. In recent decades, the amount of Arctic sea ice had fallen dramatically. Year after year, the minimum amount of ice in the ocean at the end of summer reached new records. The Northern Sea Route, once almost impassable, had been opening up to more and more traffic every year and for longer and longer periods.
At the time the asteroid hit, spring was just returning to the Arctic Circle. The sea ice had been at its maximum extent in March and was just beginning to retreat, as it did every year. But this year, things were to be different.
The ash cloud was particularly concentrated at the Poles. In addition, the sulphur dioxide released into the upper atmosphere by the volcanic activity reflected back the heat. As a consequence, very little of the sun’s warmth penetrated down to the surface below. Temperatures failed to rise and the Arctic sea ice failed to thaw.
In the Antarctic it had less effect. Winter was returning to the Southern Hemisphere, and the loss of energy from the sun made little difference at a time of year when very little sunlight reached that part of the world.
For other countries in southern latitudes, it was a noticeably bad winter, but not anything that had not been experienced before. The Falklands were even wetter and more miserable than usual. New Zealand had a cold winter with plenty of snowfall. Melbourne, Sydney and other Southern Australian cities were cloudy, cold and damp throughout June and July.
Such conditions were not unheard of. However, when the poor weather lingered on into September, questions began to be asked.
Further north, all sorts of unusual things were happening. The Sahara saw more rainfall than it had received in years. All manner of seedlings, dormant for decades under the parched sand, sprang forth as saplings. In other tropical areas, monsoons arrived at the wrong time or not at all.
There was a noticeable cooling across all tropical areas, estimated at between one and two degrees Celsius. That, combined with the unpredictable rainfall, led to widespread crop failures. Many places did not see the sun for weeks on end, stuck under an unremittingly grey and gloomy sky.
In the more temperate areas of the Northern Hemisphere, things were even more noticeable. Much of Europe had a dismal, cold and wet summer.
Even by the UK’s standards, notorious for disappointing summers, it was a shocker. The temperature never reached 20 degrees Celsius anywhere in the UK for the entire summer, and in most places, daytime temperatures were more like March than August.
Further north, things were even worse. Summer never came to Scandinavia at all. Snow showers persisted throughout the season. But it was inside the Arctic Circle where the biggest changes were occurring.
With the sunlight blocked out, the Arctic sea ice barely retreated at all. By August, only a quarter of the usual melting had occurred. For the first time in many years, the Northern Sea Route never opened.
When the sun did manage to break through the clouds, rather than warming ocean water, most of its heat was reflected back by the prevailing ice sheets. As September arrived, the sea ice was already beginning to advance again at an unprecedented rate.
For the tourist industry it was a disaster. All flights were grounded until mid-June and, even when they resumed, bookings were a fraction of what they would normally have been.
Those that did make it to the Mediterranean were greeted by the worst summer in living memory. The Costa del Sol was overcast and cold. Flights continued to be delayed or cancelled at short notice due to concerns over continued volcanic eruptions.
It wasn’t just the tourist industry that was in trouble. Failed harvests around the world were putting pressure on food producers, exacerbated by restrictions on air travel which were causing all manner of freight delays.
All of this had a knock-on effect on many global companies, all reflected in the stock markets which went on a prolonged slide throughout the summer. Only the previous spring, the Dow Jones had broken through the 30,000 mark for the first time. By the end of August it had plummeted to less than 15,000. The same pattern was repeated across all the major economies as the world fell into a global recession.
Governments urged their citizens to stay calm. There had been worse crises than this in the past. We had survived them, we would survive this. The climate would return to normal in a couple of years, the economy would recover, and all would be well.
In the meantime, the word “austerity” began to be bandied around once again, as it had after the last major stock market meltdown twenty years previously.
Not everyone was convinced. Kaylee certainly wasn’t. She’d had her work cut out working with the Met Office over the summer, running all sorts of projections as to what was going to happen. Now she was getting seriously worried.
The previous evening she’d been working in her office, by now half-converted into a nursery. It was cold and windy outside, but she was warm enough at her desk. She should have been – she and Charlie had had their central heating on since the middle of August. Despite the woolly jumper she was wearing, the bump in her middle was really showing now. She was six and a half months pregnant.
She’d been looking at the satellite patterns, ocean temperatures and the long-term forecast for the month ahead and she was extremely concerned by what she was seeing.
She and Charlie were due to fly out to the Canary Islands for a holiday the following week. They were going t
o stay with Charlie’s mother and Kaylee’s father who’d been living on the island of Fuerteventura for the past three years, along with Kaylee’s sister, Olivia.
Charlie and Kaylee had booked their flights several months ago before she knew she was pregnant and before the asteroid strike. With all the cancellations and a baby on the way, they were not even sure if they would be able to go, but her pregnancy had been straightforward so far. Her doctor had given her the all-clear to fly as long as she returned by the first week of November.
The newspapers were making the most of the weather to try and sell more copies. On this particular October day, the front page of one of the mid-range tabloids was screaming out “COLDEST WINTER IN 1,000 YEARS ON ITS WAY”.
Kaylee was doing her weekly shop in the large superstore on the edge of town. She noticed the headline as she wheeled her shopping trolley past the newspaper stand. This particular paper had been running such stories every year as long as anyone could remember, and most people had long stopped taking them seriously. But this didn’t seem to be the case today.
Three people picked up a copy as Kaylee watched. She reflected that, for all the paper’s scaremongering in the past, this time they may just have got it right.
She glanced away from the newspapers towards the fruit and veg area. It wasn’t particularly busy and there was no sign of anything out of the ordinary as people went about their daily business.
A young mum with a pushchair was choosing a bunch of bananas. An elderly lady was complaining to a member of staff about the price of strawberries. The poor growing season had driven up the prices of fresh food.
Kaylee pondered what might happen in the months ahead. The weather charts she had been studying showed a huge mass of cold air positioned over the North Pole. It looked highly likely that it would be plunging southwards over the next week, bringing freezing temperatures to the UK, not at all what would be expected for mid-October.
Kaylee’s concern was more for the long term, though. If it was going to get that cold in October, what would the rest of the winter be like? What sort of conditions might her baby, due in late-December, be born into?
