”But there is some hope. Science is working to reduce the negative impacts on our arable land and to increase our crop yields. By increasing the use of pesticides and fertilizers we can increase crop yields in some areas, but the problems we just talked about will increase.
Animals can graze on grass and shrubs and don’t have to be fed grains, although the grains certainly make them fatter and juicier.
“If new plant varieties can be developed that will use nitrogen from the air for fertilizer and resist plant and pest damage, it would certainly help the situation. Pests destroy about a third of the average crops produced in the world. Pesticides that could break down into harmless substances before poisoning the land or water would be an advantage. Better irrigation would be a positive, but with decreasing freshwater available the question is where to find it.
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
“Global warming requires that we reduce fossil fuel use and stop deforestation. Both of these seem to be highly unlikely if we are to increase food supplies. About a half a hectare, or an acre and a quarter, is about what is needed to feed one person eating a combination vegetable and animal diet. We are now at less than half that amount of land per person. And with the population increasing at about 2% a year, food production needs to increase at over 3% per year. During the Green Revolution grain production was increasing at almost 3% a year, but that level has long since reduced. However some countries in Asia and Latin America are increasing their annual grain yields.
“In 25 years, by 2050, the land used for grain production will have been reduced from 718 million hectares in 1982 to 620 million. With the expected increase in population it will be about six hundredths of a hectare, about 700 square meters per person—less than 6 people per acre of arable land. So if we need one and a quarter acres now, we will have one sixth of an acre in 2050—you can understand the problem. On the somewhat positive side, there are estimates that we will have 1000 square meters per person—four people per acre.(35b) Irrigated land will yield up to 100 bushels of wheat per acre per year, about 250 per hectare, and non-irrigated land about 1/3 to 1/2 that much. That would be about 44 loaves of bread per person from irrigated acres and 15 to 20 from non-irrigated acres per person per year. Higher income Americans eat about a fifth of a loaf per day, poor people eat much more. So for a rich American his share of bread would last him almost 8 months. But if you were a poor person with irrigated land it would last you about four months, but if you were a poor person with non-irrigated land the bread would last you only about two months.
“The world seems to be at its limit in terms of food production capacity using only farmland. It is a combination of too many people, not enough water, increased costs of fertilizers, and reducing the amount of arable land. To remedy these problems would require huge capital expenses. Governments don’t seem ready to make such commitments yet, and with the increasing national debts of nearly every country it is likely that they will not make such investments.(36) Vertical farming has been thought of but it is generally dismissed as being impractical. The plans for hydroponic farms in tall buildings would require a great deal of experience to build the building. Mirrors might be used to direct sunlight into the plant growing rooms. However human or robotic power would still be needed to plant and harvest the food.
CONFRONTING THE SKEPTICS ON WATER SHORTAGES
"And Gulliver Returns" Book 1 Reversing Overpopulation--The Planet's Doomsday Threat Page 30
