‘We’re not being nice. We’re being firm.’
‘Well, that’s the problem, isn’t it? On the one hand the ambassador would like us to believe we’re going to be seen as being tough by telling Zhang what’s going to happen. But the reality is, what’s going to happen is we’re going to back down. And that ain’t tough. And it’s pretty clear what interpretation Zhang’s going to put on it. So we’ve got this ambiguous message here and either side can interpret it like they want and the only thing you can be sure of is they’ll interpret it differently.’
‘Mr Secretary,’ said Ellman, ‘in a situation like this, that’s a strength.’
‘Yeah. It’s about as strong as General Hale here giving Pressler an order to attack and Pressler reading it as an order to retreat.’
‘No, sir. This is not a battle. Not yet. If we want to avoid that, it’s useful to have something both sides can interpret in the way they want. To one party it looks firm, to another it looks weak. Yes, there’s ambiguity, but that gives both sides what they need. That’s how you get yourself out of these situations, Mr Secretary. You can argue over the interpretations later when tempers have cooled.’
‘Ambassador, it’s arguing over the interpretations later that gets you into a war. All this is going to do is–’
‘John,’ said the president. ‘You can stop talking to Ambassador Ellman, because it’s not her decision, it’s mine. Now, I’ve heard what you’ve had to say. Thank you. I’ve made the call. This meeting isn’t to reopen the debate over the decision, it’s to discuss what we do to implement it.’
Tom Knowles was conscious of the way the defense secretary was looking at him. He respected the passion in Oakley’s commitment to his point of view. And he wasn’t at all certain that the other man’s judgment was mistaken. There was a risk, a very real risk, that this would go wrong and that many lives would be lost, both amongst those on the ground in Sudan and those who would be going in to recover them. And yet Tom Knowles had found himself having to balance those lives against those that might be saved, not only by avoidance of the sea battle – which would recur at some point, at some time, if the underlying causes that had brought the confrontation to a head weren’t resolved – but by the possibility of creating a new way of doing business with China. And the only way, he had decided, to create it, was to do it, even though that required a leap of faith so big that he himself found it hard to contemplate.
He knew that it was possible his entire presidency would come to be judged on this decision. And in the end he had made his choice. He had barely slept all night for thinking about it, but he had made it. Perhaps it was the words Joel Ehrenreich had spoken to him, the gauntlet the bald academic had laid down. Or perhaps it was some instinct deep within him, an instinct to do the challenging thing, the striking thing, that had taken him out of a commercial law practice in Reno twenty years earlier and propelled him all the way to the White House, an instinct that had been stifled over years of campaigning and calculating and choosing what to do on the basis of what pollsters told him, but which now, at the last gasp, reasserted itself.
If history was going to judge him on one decision, on the direction he chose to take at Lamu Bay, then let it be a bold one. That was the choice he had made. Let it be a brave choice. Let it be a decision that broke the mold – or at least tried to – not one that cowered in fear of the consequences if anything changed.
‘Tom,’ said Oakley, pleading now, ‘at least, at least, do them at the same time. Tell them we’re going in to get our men at the same moment we release their ships. At least that way you don’t look like you’re backing down.’
‘I’m not trying to give the impression that we’re backing down.’
‘But that’s what it looks like!’
‘Then that’s unfortunate. But they have to know their ships are gone. Now if we go in at the same time, they don’t have any guarantee of that. That’s why we figured–’
‘And if their ships are gone we have no guarantee our guys are coming home!’
‘That’s why we figured,’ said the president firmly, ‘that we’d need to leave an hour, so they could be sure their ships really are released, like Admiral Tovey said. Is an hour enough, Admiral?’
Tovey nodded.
The president looked back at Oakley. ‘John, I’ve thought long and hard about this. In some ways, it would be easier to do what you say. But I’m going to go with this. I’m going to take this chance.’
‘Then at least put some kind of threat in the note! For God’s sake, Tom, we have no leverage once those ships go and if he chooses to shoot our guys down in Sudan he just shoots them down. At least put something in the note about what we’ll do if he does that.’
‘Mr Secretary,’ said Ellman, ‘the whole point is that we don’t put a threat in the note.’
‘And what do we do if it happens, Ambassador? Maybe you might want to start thinking two steps ahead. What do we do if they shoot our guys?’
Ellman was silent.
‘You’ve got no answer, have you? No answer at all!’
‘That’s something we’ll deal with if we have to,’ said the president.
Oakley shook his head in anger. ‘Let’s just hope it never gets out, Tom. When our guys are dead, and the Chinese are crowing to the world how they made us stand down, let’s just hope no one ever finds out it was because Ambassador Ellman thought we should take a chance on President Zhang.’
‘It’s not the ambassador’s decision, John. It’s mine.’ Knowles paused. ‘The debate’s done. President Zhang’s going to get the note. It tells him what we’re going to do, then he’s got twelve hours to decide how he’s going to deal with it. If he wants to call me, he can call.’ The president looked around the table. ‘If anyone else has a reason I shouldn’t send it – something that overrides everything we’ve thought of – now’s the time to tell me.’
Looks were exchanged around the table.
‘This sounds too sensitive for a note that other officials might see,’ said Susan Opitz.
Knowles nodded.
‘Shouldn’t you call him?’
‘I don’t want to have a discussion. I don’t want an argument. I just want to lay down what’s going to happen.’
‘How do you know no one else is going to see it?’
‘We’ve got a way.’
59
PRESIDENT ZHANG OPENED the bedroom door in his pajamas. It was 11.30pm in Beijing. In front of him stood his personal secretary. His knocking had woken Zhang’s wife. The Chinese president himself had not been asleep.
‘President Zhang, there is an email,’ said the man.
Zhang didn’t understand. He followed him out. The secretary had been alerted that an email had come to the secure account that was linked to the president of the United States.
They had never used it. It took ten minutes of both of them looking in cupboards and files before they found the password for the account.
Zhang opened the message, triggering the receipt function that alerted the other side to the fact that it had been accessed. He scanned the note quickly. Then he pressed to print it. The secretary opened a door to go and retrieve it from the printer.
‘No!’ said Zhang quickly. He closed the email account and went to get the paper himself.
‘Do you want it translated, President Zhang?’
Zhang shook his head. The secretary watched as the Chinese president took the note to his study. ‘Wait here,’ he said, and closed the door.
He sat down and read the text. No translation was required. It had been sent not only in English but in Mandarin, as if it was understood that Zhang might choose to read it without involving an interpreter. It laid out the actions the United States was going to take over the next fourteen hours. The tone of the note was firm. It said Knowles would be happy to take a call for clarification if there was anything that required explanation.
It wasn’t intended as a backdown, Zhang knew. He was being to
ld what would happen. If anything, it could be interpreted as an act of humiliation towards him, like the note a parent would send to a child who couldn’t manage his own affairs.
But Zhang wasn’t looking for such interpretations. He was looking for something, anything that would enable him to give the order to turn the Chou Enlai and Mao Zedong around with confidence that it would be obeyed.
He studied the note. There would be an hour between the release of the ships and the rescue of the American soldiers. His mind fixed on that, toyed with it, turned it around. An hour. That was the thing this note gave him. What possibilities did it create?
An idea began to form in his mind. One hour was very little. Two would be good. Four would be better. But if he rang Knowles and asked for four, he would need to explain why. If he didn’t explain why, the American leader would think he was prevaricating. And he could not divulge the reason.
So it was one hour. That was what he would have. But that was something. It might be sufficient.
In his mind he inspected it from every side, this one hour that he would have, like a precious piece of treasure that had suddenly appeared from nowhere and that might – or might not – be enough.
Zhang read the note one last time. No one but his private secretary knew the note existed, and not even he knew what was in it. The Chinese president began to tear it up. Tear after tear, until it was in little pieces. He put the pieces in an ashtray and set a match to them.
He watched them burn.
The note changed the entire balance of the situation. When the Kunming and Changchun were released, there would be no reason for the carrier groups to keep approaching. Xu could tell them to stop, even if Fan wanted them to proceed. Would he? What would happen, he wondered, if he spoke to Xu and said he had spoken with the American president and that Knowles was going to back down and release the ships? What if he said the American president was doing this in order to get China’s help to solve America’s economic problems?
That would turn the situation on its head. That would show his version of China’s true power, its economic strength, trumping Fan’s military muscle.
Where would Xu stand then? Would he turn the ships around? Would he believe that his admirals would agree to do so? As far as they were aware, they would have won. The Americans would have backed down.
Then there would be one hour before the Americans went in to get their men. Where would Xu stand if he, Zhang, went to Fan during that hour and gave him a choice?
60
TOM KNOWLES SAT in the Oval Office and wondered what was happening in Beijing. Were orders being given? If so, what for? Time ticked by. It was the early hours of the morning in China, he knew. He wasn’t sure if he had really expected a call from Zhang. No call came.
The Mao Zedong and Chou Enlai carrier strike groups continued their progress. The last satellite sighting before nightfall in the area, at 10.40am Washington time, showed them closing from the east on the Kenyan coast. The John F Kennedy was approaching from the south. In Sudan, the standoff continued. A heavily reinforced ring of troops surrounded the compound and the burnt-out Chinooks outside it. From the other side of the world there were reports of Chinese mobilization. Troops had deployed at key points on the Russian and Indian borders. Additional naval forces had put to sea. US defense intelligence was tracking them. They were moving to positions from which they could threaten US military assets in the region, which included the US presence in Okinawa and elements of the William J Clinton strike group, which were in the South China Sea. US forces in the region were on combat alert. Air support out of Diego Garcia was being readied.
Through the afternoon Knowles had meetings on the economic situation with his officials and congressional leaders. He tried to keep his mind on the issues, keep it from thinking about what might or might not be happening in Beijing. But in the back of his mind he kept wondering. Had he made the right decision? Was John Oakley right after all? Of the people he was meeting, only Susan Opitz was aware of events in the Indian Ocean. From time to time she glanced at him and he could tell she knew what he was really thinking about. As for the measures they had introduced to put a floor under the markets, they hadn’t been truly tested yet. Everyone agreed the real test would come in two days’ time, when the markets reopened after the New Year’s Day holiday. But by then, Knowles knew, the world might have been plunged into an entirely new era. If that happened, there were no measures that would be enough to hold the markets back from a last, massive dive. But that would be the least of his worries.
By five o’clock in Washington it was dark. Sunrise over Kenya, and the first satellite view of the ships, wouldn’t come for almost another six hours.
It was early morning now in Beijing. Still no call from Zhang.
He had finished his meetings on the economy. There was nothing now to take his mind off it.
‘We got the receipt message,’ Abrahams reminded him. ‘There’s only one way that can happen. He definitely got the email.’
Knowles nodded.
Ed Abrahams smiled. ‘Hell of a New Year’s, isn’t it?’
‘You going somewhere?’
Ed shook his head. ‘Best party in town’s right here.’
The president had originally planned to be in Nevada for New Year’s. A bunch of people were going to be at the ranch. He had called Sarah to tell her he wouldn’t make it. Sarah knew something must be going on but didn’t ask.
‘You want to watch the football?’
Ed grinned. ‘I thought you’d never ask.’
Time crawled. At eight-thirty he turned on Monday Night Football. Last MNF of the year, Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots. Not a game that was going to make a difference to anything. Ed had brought Gary Rose and Roberta Devlin with him to the president’s sitting room on the residence floor, as well as Marion Ellman. The president had asked her to stay at the White House as the day unfolded. He ordered up pizzas and beers and Cokes.
A little after ten-thirty a call came through from General Hale to say that daybreak over East Africa had shown the carrier groups still approaching the Abraham Lincoln.
‘I guess they’re not going to turn around until they’re sure we’ve let them go,’ said Rose.
Knowles nodded. He turned back to the television and took a swig of his beer.
The game was drawing to a close with a score of fourteen to ten in favor of the Bills. But Knowles didn’t have his mind on the action that was winding down in the Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo. Halfway across the world, a new year was dawning, and the action there was just beginning.
At a couple of minutes past eleven Hale called to say that the Kunming and Changchun had been released. The commanders on both ships had acknowledged the communication from Pressler informing them they were free to go. Twenty minutes later Hale rang again to say they were on their way.
It was done now. The leverage, as Hale called it, was gone.
On the TV some kind of New Year’s program reviewing the previous year had come on. Clips and commentary. Knowles saw footage of himself. The five people in the room watched, but their minds were elsewhere.
Soon the TV was counting down the New Year.
‘I should have got some champagne up,’ said the president.
‘Let’s just hold on a little for that,’ said Abrahams.
The phone rang. Hale said that the helicopters out of Lodwar had just lifted off.
IN BEIJING, PRESIDENT ZHANG and Defense Minister Xu walked into General Fan’s office. Fan was having a lunch meeting with four of his senior officers. They sat at a conference table covered with maps. Zhang gazed at the general. Fan told the officers to leave. They got up and walked out, taking their time in a show of arrogance towards the president. Fan stayed seated.
‘The Kunming and Changchun have been released,’ said Zhang. ‘The Chou Enlai and Mao Zedong have been stopped.’
Fan’s glance went quickly to Xu, whose eye was twitching.
‘
I spoke with President Knowles. He agreed to release these ships in exchange for help with his economic problems.’
Fan watched him suspiciously.
‘I have told him we will allow his men to be removed.’
Fan jumped up. ‘That will not happen without my order.’
‘The victor should be magnanimous. To let him take these men is another victory for us.’
‘If that is what you call a victory,’ Fan retorted sarcastically, ‘what is a defeat?’
‘The Americans are moving immediately. Their men are already in the air.’
‘Then we will deal with them.’
‘You will not. They will not be molested.’
Fan smiled.
‘What?’
‘We’ll see.’
‘There will be no battle in Africa today, Fan. If there is a battle in Africa, there will be a battle here. Look out the window.’
Fan looked. Internal security forces ringed the building.
Fan reached into his pocket. He pulled out a cell phone. ‘With one call, those men out there will be lying dead.’
Zhang took out a cell phone from his own pocket. He glanced at Xu. The defense minister hesitated, then pulled out a phone as well.
The three men stood around the table, phones in hand.
Zhang had never visualized in his mind what it would look like when it came, the final moment of confrontation with Fan. Now it was here.
‘You need to make a call,’ said Zhang. ‘You can give the order to our men in Sudan to allow the Americans in, or you can unleash a war here in China. Look at Xu and ask yourself if you think you will win. Think about it carefully, Fan. You only have a couple of minutes. You need to decide which call to make.’
Fan’s eyes narrowed. He looked at Xu. The defense minister stood behind Zhang, his eye blinking furiously.
ON THE TV, the program had changed. Some kind of entertainment show had come on.
End Game Page 43
