“I. . . because, Comrade Admiral, the plan calls for Longtian to attack and destroy those two Nationalist bases,” Ai said. “It is all in the plan, sir. ...”
“Yes, I know, but the plan is wrong,” Sun said. This caused a gasp from Ai and from most of the officers attending the briefing—and an absolutely explosive grimace from Qian. “It is wrong because . . . Damn you, Colonel, you can see it is wrong. Change it. We could be called upon at any moment to execute this attack plan, and I want to be sure it is perfect. ”
“It is not wise to change the war plans,” General Qian said. “Yes, yes, some missiles are not in place right now, but they will be soon. If we are ordered to execute our war plans, we can move additional forces eastward to cover those two Nationalist air bases. Does that alleviate your concern, Comrade Admiral?”
“Comrade General, the purpose of this planning committee is to continually modify the existing war plans to reflect current circumstances and conditions,” Sun Ji Guoming said. “This is done so we do not have to wait until the moment we execute the war order to learn that we do not have the forces in place to accomplish the mission. When you were notified that Longtian was flooded and missiles were being relocated, you should have immediately moved additional forces to cover those targets.”
“You mean, fly hundreds of aircraft and thousands of troops all over China just for a few days until some mud is swept away?” General Qian asked. “Do you realize how much that would cost? And what of other war plans for which those aircraft and personnel are committed? That means coordinating with dozens of other headquarters all over China.”
“But, sir, that is the purpose of this planning group—to respond immediately to changes that might affect this war plan,” Sun argued. “If it becomes necessary to move men and equipment to a new location, then so be it. We should—”
“We should look at the solution in a different way, a way that will not be as complicated or as costly,” Qian interjected, obviously impatient to get this briefing over with. “Perhaps in the future we can brief possible replacement units that could be utilized to fill in, in situations such as have occurred in Longtian. We do not actually move any forces, but we earmark them for possible action in case the war plan is activated. How does that sound to you, Comrade Sun?”
Sun opened his mouth to respond, but thought better of it. It was a bad idea. The war plan for the invasion of Taiwan was supposed to be a rapid reaction plan—the invasion was supposed to begin within twenty-four hours of the execution order. The world, especially Taiwan and its de facto ally, the United States of America, would immediately detect any massive troop or equipment movements; the element of surprise would be lost, and China no doubt would be forced to stand down its forces. If there were huge gaps in the reaction time of forces key to the plan— especially the Dong Feng-15 missile bombardment units, which were supposed to destroy key air defense and coastal defense sites in western Taiwan—the entire invasion plan was in jeopardy.
But now was not the time to argue this point. “Very well, Comrade General,” Sun acquiesced. “As long as the chief of staff is aware of the degradation, and immediately advised as to the steps being taken to correct the deficiency, a briefing note such as you suggest could be acceptable. But it is certainly not acceptable to brief that a certain element in the attack plan is mission-capable if it is in fact not so. The war plans are not carved in stone—they must be continually modified or they are useless. Please do not commit that error again, Comrade Colonel.”
“Yes, Comrade Admiral,” Colonel Ai responded, nodding contritely. Ai took a moment to take a sip of water, collect his thoughts, and find his place again—and immediately proceeded to give his briefing exactly as prepared, errors and all. There were at least two more instances that Sun knew of where attack units were not in place—in one case, an attack unit that Ai briefed was key to the destruction of a radar site on the Pescadores Islands in the Formosa Strait did not even exist any longer! The planning committee had done virtually nothing to the original Central Military Commission war plans drafted several years earlier.
“Another question, Comrade Colonel,” Sun interjected, swallowing his exasperation. “You seem quite content to sail the carrier Mao and her escorts right up to Kaohsiung, supported by air forces from Pingtan and naval air units from Quanzhou. But that means our J-6s will be up against the Nationalists’ F-16s from T’ainan. ...”
“We enjoy a six to one superiority in fighters, Comrade Admiral,” Ai responded. “Also, the DF-15 bombardment is guaranteed to destroy all of the runways that might possibly be used by the F-16s. Even if we do not destroy many F-16s on the ground, they will be trapped either aloft running out of fuel and weapons, or on the ground unable to launch.” “Your estimates of the amount of damage our rockets might do to the Nationalists’ bases is arguable, since they have a great quantity of ballistic missile defense systems and much of their warfighting infrastructure is belowground, where our rockets would have little effect, ” Sun said. “But even if our rocket attack is twice as effective as you say, our numerical fighter aircraft superiority can be completely erased if our air attack is at night.”
“Sir . . . ?”
“Our J-5 and J-6 fighters and most of our J-7 fighters are not capable of night operations—I see that seventy-five percent of the air cover for the carrier is composed of J-6s,” Sun explained. “Only about ten percent are J-7s and J-8s. Where are the Sukhoi-27s? Those are our most capable fighters.”
“The Su-27s are based at Haikou Airfield, on Hainan Dao, Comrade Admiral,” Ai replied.
“I know where they are based, comrade—my question is, why are they not part of this offensive?” Sun asked. “Our fifty best fighters against their fifty best fighters—it would be an excellent battle, one that we could very well win. Such a battle could be decisive.”
“There you go again, comrade,” General Qian interjected, with a chuckle that sounded as if he were losing a lung. “The Sukhoi-27s have been deployed to Hainan Island to patrol the Nansha Dao. Their base facilities are specially made just for them. Do you now suggest we spend billions of yuan more to move them north to Pingtan or Fuzhou?”
“For this offensive—of course we should, sir,” Sun replied. “We need our best equipment and best pilots to blunt the rebel’s superior technological advantage, and the Sukhoi-27s are just as capable and perhaps superior to the F-16 Fighting Falcon. The teaming of J-8s with Su-27s is easily superior to a matchup between Taiwan’s F-16s and F-5 Freedom Fighters. The key, obviously, is the Sukhoi-27s.”
“We also have the advantage of superior command and control,” Ai interjected, “namely, the Ilyushin-76 radar surveillance planes. Two of our U-76s operating in the region during the conflict greatly increase the flexibility of the J-7s and J-6s. ”
“Our radar plane crews are just now being certified for combat duties,” Sun responded. “I feel it is not wise to trust them to carry the air battle for us, especially if we are top-heavy with fighters that require constant airborne intercept and even weapon-control information right down to ‘knife-fighting’ range. That could overload the radar operators and cause confusion.”
“Every commander wants the best, especially the young ones like yourself,” Qian argued, his voice very grandfatherly, almost jovial. “The J-6s and J-7 fighters, along with the Ilyushin-76 radar planes, will perform well beyond all expectations.”
“But the Su-27s will give us an edge—”
“The Sukhoi-27s were based on Hainan Dao to protect our interests in the South China Sea, in case of attack by Vietnamese or Philippine forces on our holdings in the Spratly Islands,” Qian said. He raised a suspicious eyebrow and asked Sun, “You are not suggesting we abandon our rights to the South China Sea, Comrade Admiral?”
“Of... course .. . not, sir,” Sun Ji Guoming replied, stunned by the question. “Sir, I am not trying to discredit the war plan or impose my own views over that of the Party or the Central Military Commission. My inte
ntion is to suggest improvements on the plan to ensure a safe and successful outcome. The Formosa invasion—”
“Is well planned and ready for execution, without the added complication of the Sukhoi-27 fighters,” Qian said confidently. “They can always be brought north in case they are needed, but with a six-to-one numerical advantage in fighters now, along with the carrier Mao’s fleet of Sukhoi-33 fighters, we feel the carrier is well-protected and we can destroy any opposition from Kaohsiung. A little danger is to be expected, my young friend—you cannot summon every rifle or every jet you wish. The plan has been formulated to concentrate necessary strength on defeating the rebels without sacrificing security or strategic balance in other areas of our vast nation. Please continue, comrade. ...”
“Perhaps you do not understand, Comrade General,” Sun said. “The National Assembly of the rebel Nationalist government on Taiwan has just voted to amend their constitution to declare themselves independent and sovereign from the mainland.”
Colonel Lieutenant Ai Peijian appeared to be a bit confused. Since no one else was speaking, he said, “Permit me to speak, sir, but why is this such shocking news? The rebels have been thinking they can be independent from us for a long time.”
“But now they’ve declared it to the world! ” Sun shouted. “They have put it in their constitution! They have dared to declare that there are two Chinas, separate and equal! Equal! To us? How dare they! How dare they do such a thing!”
“It is meaningless, sir,” Colonel Ai said, still unsure as to why Sun was so angry. “The world knows it is not true. It is like a bug declaring it is equal to the elephant. The world knows that eventually the rebel government will be overthrown and the province of Taiwan will return to the People’s—” “The world knows, does it? The world knows?” Sun interrupted, suddenly stopping his furious pacing. “You did not hear the rest of the news, then, Comrade Colonel: It is expected that the governments of the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and many others will formally recognize the new Republic of China within the coming days. Intelligence reports that a new American embassy will open in Taipei within the week. It is also estimated that the United States will petition for permanent membership for the Nationalists in the United Nations. It will be a simple majority vote— our country cannot block membership with a veto.”
“No ... it cannot be,” General Qian muttered. He got to his feet, his hands still shaking. “This demands an immediate response. This cannot be!”
“We shall establish contact with the general staff immediately,” Sun said. “Comrade General, you must convene your operations staff and be prepared to execute the war orders immediately. ”
“Execute . . . the . . . war . . . orders!” Colonel Ai sputtered. “You mean, we are at war with the Nationalists?”
“You thought all this was a joke, Colonel?” Sun shouted angrily. “You thought none of this could really happen, that you would be somewhere else, doing something else? I am going to recommend that this plan be put into operation immediately! Within forty-eight hours, Colonel, I expect to be standing on the remains of the rebels’ capital, walking over the bodies of the rebels’ so-called ‘sovereign’ legislature.
“But first, I must figure out a way to fix your incompetence in amending the war plans so our attack will be successful,” Sun Ji Guoming thundered. “What do you think of the plan now, Colonel? What if I put you on the first landing craft that rolls across the beachhead at Kaohsiung? Would you brief the plan the same, knowing that it was your ass that would be the first to face the remnants of the Nationalist forces that were supposed to be destroyed? Tell me, Colonel! ” He suddenly swung on the aged general. “Tell me, General! How is the plan shaping up now? Perhaps I should nominate you to lead the invasion force! ”
“Have a care, Comrade Admiral,” Qian said, but in a panicked, squeaky voice. “You are on the verge of insubordination.”
“And what about the Americans, Colonel?” Sun Ji Guoming said, his voice rising in absolute frustration. “Your time line extends out to thirty days—but it will not take the Americans more than one day to respond. Their fighters from Okinawa have the range to engage our fighters in the northern sector; their fighters with their air refueling can protect their sub hunters and anti-ship attack planes. And that is before one of their carriers arrives to begin a counteroffensive. What forces do you propose to use when that begins?”
“The Americans would not risk a carrier during the initial thrust against the rebels,” Ai Peijian argued. “The Military Intelligence Department reports that if the Americans do decide to engage, it will be well after the initial thrust.”
“I am referring to the land-based forces on Okinawa, comrade,” Sun said. “American navy, marines, air forces—it seems the Americans have as many planes on Okinawa as Taiwan has in their entire fleet! If they commit those forces, all our forces arrayed against the northern half of Taiwan could be in jeopardy. If they get control of the skies and bring in their P-3 sub-chasers, all of our submarine fleet in the Formosa Strait and East China Sea could be in jeopardy. What will you do if—?”
“Comrade Admiral,” General Qian interjected wearily, “you are raving. Be silent.”
“Why not just destroy Okinawa, Comrade Colonel?” Sun Ji Guoming said, ignoring the generals admonition. “That would eliminate one of the biggest threats to our forces committed to the Taiwan battle. Destroy Okinawa, destroy Kunsan, South Korea, and we push the Americans back to the 135th meridian, out of range of their medium attack planes. If the Japanese refuse to allow American forces to stage attacks against us from their bases, we can then push the Americans back to Guam. Destroy Guam—one DF-5 long-range ballistic missile fired from Changsha, or one sea-launched ballistic missile fired from the Xia, our nuclear submarine—and we push the Americans back to the other side of the International Date Line. They would not even be fighting on the same day as us! We could then—”
“You . . . you are talking about using nuclear weapons, Admiral?” General Qian gasped. “You know that the Chinese Communist Party has officially stated that the People’s Liberation Army will not use nuclear weapons first in any conflict?”
“Using nuclear weapons would be much better than relying on false and misleading war plans such as these to retake what is rightfully ours! ” Admiral Sun shouted, sweeping his copy of the war plans onto the floor. “We are doomed to failure unless we commit ourselves to using every weapon in our arsenal.”
“That is quite enough, Comrade Admiral,” Qian interjected sternly. “The war plans do not call for the use of nuclear weapons against our own province—may I remind you that the island of Formosa is our territory, our twenty-third province—and it does not call for using nuclear weapons against the Americans, South Koreans, Japanese, or anyone else. I think this news has unsettled you. You appear to be on the verge of a mental breakdown.” And that was the end of the discussion.
This was a travesty, Sun Ji Guoming thought, as the others filed out of the conference room—for all he cared, the war plans didn’t exist. China was completely unprepared for what had just happened and what was about to happen.
Sun Ji Guoming had his own plans, and they had nothing to do with missile and air bombardments or massive naval engagements. Taiwan could be taken, without prompting war with the United States or hatred from the other Asian nations. It would be simple to isolate Taiwan, even from its staunchest supporters.
But capturing Taiwan and making it part of Zhongguo again was not the most important mission facing them right now—the biggest threat was the domination of the United States in every aspect of life in the Far East. The Americans’ ability to project its military power throughout this region was crushing China’s struggle to take its place as the most important power in Asia. Yes, the Americans’ military might was awesome, its technological superiority enormous. But Asia was far away, mysterious; its military had been greatly downsized, its economy was unsteady, its l
eadership tenuous. America’s influence on its Asian allies was not as strong as it once was.
Sun believed that he had a way to topple the great United States of America off its perch—and now was the time to do it.
“One who speaks deferentially but increases his preparations will advance; one who speaks belligerently _ and advances hastily will retreat.” —SUN-TZU,
The Art of War
CHAPTER ONE
OVER AMERICAN-PROTECTED AIRSPACE MONDAY, 26 MAY 19 97, 0741 HOURS PT ( 1041 HOURS ET)
“Attention, datalink bogey, eleven o’clock low,” ‘Sharon’ reported.
U.S. Air Force Major Scott Mauer saw the flashing diamond floating before his eyes even before the computer-synthesized female voice they had named “Sharon”—after actress Sharon Stone, whose voice could have been an exact duplicate of the computer’s—issued its advisory. Mauer immediately jammed his back and butt deeper into the ejection seat of his F-22 Lightning fighter and locked the inertial reel, securing himself tightly in his seat. The action was about to start.
Mauer moved his head until a circular target designator symbol centered on the diamond symbol, then toggled the radio transmit button on his right throttle quadrant down to the “intercom” position and said, “Lock bogey.” “Sharon” was much more than a verbal warning system as the first-generation “Bitchin’ Bettys” had been in earlier fighters— Sharon had a five-thousand-word vocabulary, could respond to questions with a surprisingly human voice, and could activate almost all of the F-22’s subsystems. It was more akin to a human copilot than a computer.
BOGEY LOCKED, Sharon replied, and instandy a box surrounded the white diamond symbol and the bogey’s flight information—speed, altitude, heading—displayed in midair. Mauer’s F-22 Lightning, the Air Force’s newest air-superiority fighter and attack plane, was equipped with the new “supercockpit” system, which included a helmet-mounted virtual display (VD), replacing the standard heads-up display mounted atop the instrument panel with symbols and information that could be seen no matter where the pilot looked—left, right, straight down, or even backward, the pilot could always “see” his flight and target readouts. Most of the heads-down cockpit dials, gauges, and multifunction displays in the F-22 fighter had also been replaced with three seamless color computer monitors that could be configured to display anything the pilot wished to see—radar, infrared, digital map, satellite photos, text, or flight instruments—called up and displayed by asking the computer or by touching the screen.
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