“I hope we get a chance to talk about the recent cuts in the bomber force, sir,” McLanahan said. “Speaking as a concerned and knowledgeable individual and not just as a defense contractor, I have some ideas about the bomber force structure that you should know. ”
“You will get a chance to talk about it, I promise,” the President said. “You’ve earned that right. Just keep in mind, the cuts were made long before I came into office, and the money has already been spent on the back end. But we’ll talk about all this later. I’ve heard some good things about what you and this young man here have been doing.” The President shook hands with Jon Masters. “Good to see you too, Dr. Masters. I’m looking forward to you naming a satellite after me soon. Make it a good one, okay?”
“The new space-based surveillance and targeting satellite needs a name,” Masters said with a boyish grin. “At the risk of being accused of out-and-out brown-nosing the President of the United States, I wonder if I should skip Taylor and Clinton and go right to Martindale?” They all laughed—the answer to that one was obvious.
“General, good to see you again,” the President said as he shook hands with the big three-star general. “I know I haven’t had time to thank you for all the hard work you did getting Colonel McLanahan here back in the air for that Iranian mission. Your work was instrumental in averting a certain disaster in the Persian Gulf. We were very impressed with the proposal you wrote concerning this Taiwan reconnaissance/strike mission.”
“Thank you, sir,” Samson responded. “I understand you’re getting a lot of political heat for the things we did. You don’t have to take the fall for this alone, sir.”
“I do, I will, and I’ll survive, Terrill,” the President said. “Unless the opposition wants to suspend the Constitution, I’m on solid ground. You worry about the mission we’re thinking about sending your boys on, I’ll worry about the Democrats.” His weak smile told Samson that he was more than just a little concerned about the political pressure he was under. _
“Jerrod’s going to call me to go to that American Bar Association dinner thing in about thirty minutes, so let’s get to it.” The President steered the three newcomers over to places around the coffee table in front of the big Resolute desk in the Oval Office. “Ellen, gents, I think you all know Air Force Lieutenant General Terrill Samson, commander of Eighth Air Force and bomber guru. Let me introduce Dr. Jonathan Colin Masters, boy genius, defense contractor, and reportedly the smarter younger brother of Merlin the Magician. And this is ace bombardier Patrick McLanahan. He and I have some stories that will curl your toes, if they ever declassify them. You’ll never guess how close to the brink we’ve been together, and how often we’ve been there.” The Presidential advisors, except Philip Freeman, mumbled hellos and little else.
“Here’s what’s going on, boys,” the President began, taking his seat at the head of the circle, with Vice President Whiting beside him. “A few weeks ago, the intelligence wonks said the PRC is massing a naval task force at Juidongshan, of about forty ships, mostly small combatants but a few large destroyers and frigates. The press reported it as minor ship movements associated with Reunification Day celebrations. We believe the ships have some other purpose. Meanwhile, the aircraft carrier Mao Zedong moved into Hong Kong Harbor, supposedly also participating in the Reunification Day stuff—but then we learned it lifted anchor. Phil, bring us up to speed.”
“In a nutshell, sir: that task force is getting bigger, and the carrier’s on the way to join them,” Philip Freeman began. “Estimated size of the PRC task force right now is fifty-seven ships, including six Luda-class guided-missile destroyers and twelve Jianghu-class frigates. Lots of support ships for surface forces and submarines. The carrier Mao has departed Hong Kong and is heading north along the coast, apparently to join the Juidongshan task force. The Mao is being escorted by four Luda- class destroyers, among others, so the PLAN has almost all of their operational destroyers involved in this task force.
“Along with the naval task force, we’ve noted increased activity at eleven army bases and ten air force and naval air bases within six hundred miles of Taipei, Taiwan. We’re watching a gradual activation of rocket artillery units at the army bases, with M-9 and M-l 1 ballistic missiles. We’re estimating at least two hundred attack planes, one hundred fighters, and fifty long-range bombers on line, each capable of carrying one or two large anti-ship cruise missiles ... or nuclear weapons.”
There was a muted “Oh, shit” from someone in the Oval Office. “Run down the nuclear-capable forces for us, Phil,” the President asked somberly.
“China’s main nuclear threat comes from land-based mobile missiles,” Freeman said, reciting data completely from memory. “The Chinese have approximately one hundred mobile medium-range nuclear missiles, each of which can carry multiple reentry warheads, plus approximately one hundred mobile short-range single-warhead nuclear missiles similar to Scuds, and a total of twelve intercontinental-range missiles. A few of these units have been moved east arrayed against forces in the Pacific, although most are still set against Russian and Indian forces in the southwest or north. Only two nuclear-capable subs in the Chinese fleet; the Navy keeps very good track of both of them when they put to sea, which is not very often. The H-6 bombers are all nuclear capable, but with gravity bombs only—so far, the Chinese seem to have no nuclear-capable air-launched cruise missiles. The bombers are not considered a threat against a full-up American carrier or surface action group.
“With the addition of the Mao carrier, however, we can expect the addition of nuclear-capable anti-ship missiles, particularly the SS-N-12 Granit,” Freeman concluded. “Supersonic, over two-hundred-mile range, big warhead, radar-guided—a real threat if it gets past the outer and middle ring of air defense in the carrier battle group. The Sukhoi- 27 or -33 fighters deployed on the carrier can presumably deliver nuclear gravity bombs, too.”
“Chance of the Chinese using nukes for whatever they got in mind? ”
“Until the Philippine conflict in 1994, it was considered low,” Freeman replied. “The Chinese have always disavowed first use of special weapons—nuclear, chemical, and biological. But China used a tactical nuclear weapon against Philippine naval forces in 1994, and threatened to use them again in March of 1996 if Taiwan held their presidential elections and declared independence from the mainland. They even mentioned military retaliation against the United States if we should interfere, and refused to deny that they were in essence threatening to use nuclear weapons against the United States.
“The attacks of course never materialized. We always thought it was mere rhetoric, but ... I think it would be irresponsible to dismiss any country threatening to use nuclear weapons. China has an advanced nuclear development program, including neutron, fractional orbital bombardment systems, tactical, battlefield, man-portable, and multi-megaton weapons.”
“Good ol’ Admiral Yin Po L’un, firing nukes around the South China Sea and Celebes Sea from that huge-ass destroyer Hong Lung like spit- balls in a third-grade classroom,” the President reminded everyone wryly. “We’re very lucky World War Three didn’t break out. Thanks to Patrick and Jon here, we put a hole in that destroyer of his big enough to drop a house through.”
“Well, General Chin Po Zihong is still chief of staff of the People’s Liberation Army; Yin’s former second in command, Admiral Sun, is now a deputy chief of staff; and China has an apparently fully operational aircraft carrier that our sources say may be carrying nuclear ballistic missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles,” Freeman summarized. “Chin might be out for revenge for what we did to his navy, and Sun might want revenge for what we did to his brand-new destroyer. A nuclear weapon might be the only way China can dig the Nationalists out of the tunnels and mountain fortresses of Quemoy.” Two groups of islands just off the coast of mainland China were claimed and occupied by Taiwan: the Matsu Islands northwest of Taiwan, no more than eleven miles off the coast; and Quemoy, a large island directly west of
the island of Formosa and no more than two miles off the Chinese coast. Both Taiwanese islands had been heavily bombarded by Chinese artillery and naval forces in the past, but they had held firm—capturing them would be a major moral as well as a tactical victory for the Chinese Communists.
“So you’re saying we’re looking at the possibility of a nuclear war over Taiwan?” the President asked. “Any chance they’re just going to sail all these ships down to Hong Kong to celebrate Reunification Day? ”
“Always a chance of that, sir,” Freeman responded, “but a better bet would be an invasion force or a covering force against one of the Taiwanese island formations near the PRC coastline. The lack of landing craft in the task force suggests it’s not an amphibious invasion, although the aircraft carrier itself makes a very formidable troop carrier and it does have the capability to launch amphibious assault ships. The task force could set up a blockade while their invasion forces go ashore. Quemoy would be the most logical target. Taiwan garrisons approximately fifty- five to sixty thousand Taiwanese troops there, along with antiaircraft and coast defense missile sites, but they’re nothing but a political trip wire, designed to inflame the world against the Communists if they attack. The attack would be over quickly, probably well before we could do anything to assist.
“The Communists will probably conduct an amphibious assault soon after the missile or bomber attacks—they won’t make the same mistake they did in 1958,” Freeman went on. “Then, the Communists bombarded the island for six straight weeks—it’s estimated that every square mile of the island was hit by two thousand artillery shells. Even after the offensive stopped, the Communists continued to bombard the island every other day for eighteen years. But the Nationalists dug in, using a complex of underground fire bases and supply tunnels. The Communists never were able to dig out the Nationalists, so the invasion plans were shelved.
“That won’t happen again. A neutron-bomb attack would destroy the island’s defenses, and the People’s Liberation Army would simply march right in after the radiation levels subside in a few months. Target date: right around July first. Chinese Reunification Day. Maybe earlier, so victory could be won by Reunification Day. ”
The President seemed to swallow hard at that bit of news. “You think they’d start a nuclear war over Taiwan, even though Taiwan declared its independence and the whole world will be watching?”
“I think the Chinese military machine began gearing up for this offensive several months ago,” Freeman replied, “and it’s too late to stop it. In fact, Taiwan declaring independence probably guaranteed they were going to go ahead with an invasion.”
“Damn,” the President muttered. “The elephant is getting ready to squash the flea.” He paused for a moment, then asked, “Where are the carriers right now?”
“Admiral Balboa should be here in a few minutes to brief you, sir,” Freeman said, glancing at his watch, “but I’ll summarize. We have no carriers within striking range of the Chinese task force or their missile bases, but that can be remedied in about three days. The Independence battle group is closest, getting ready to depart Yokosuka on patrol. It’s on its last cruise before retirement, carrying a standard package air wing. Indy's replacement is the George Washington, getting ready to depart Pearl, carrying an attack-heavy wing. ETE five days.”
“Any other air units in the area?”
“We fly daily P-3 Orion anti-submarine patrols up and down the Formosa Strait,” Freeman responded. “We also have Air Force reconnaissance planes flying nearby, RC-135 Rivet Joint intelligence-gathering planes. Daily satellite passes as well.”
“I meant strike or defense-suppression air,” the President said.
Freeman nodded. “We’ve got Marine F/A-18 Hornets and A-6 Intruders on Okinawa, but they need heavy aerial refueling tanker support,” he replied. “The Orions can carry torpedoes and Harpoon missiles in a strike configuration. We made the decision not to load up the region so as to avoid provoking China during their Reunification Day celebrations.”
“But it seems to have had a reverse effect,” Secretary of Defense Chastain cut in. “President Jiang sees an opportunity. He has the people whipped up by all this reunification talk and solidly behind him, he got the Politburo and military behind him, and it looks like they’re going for it.”
The President had little reaction except to ask, “Submarines?”
“We have two Los Angeles-class attack subs, Springfield and Pasadena, assigned to shadow the Chinese task force,” Freeman replied. “Two more Sturgeon-class subs are patrolling the Formosa Strait itself, and the Honolulu is shadowing the Chinese nuclear sub Xia. Two more subs are on patrol in the South China Sea. All seven subs have relief on the way. ”
“Two subs versus a fifty-ship task force is a bit skimpy,” Secretary of Defense Chastain interjected.
“We can have two more subs on station in five to six days,” Freeman said. “But Taiwan has two, maybe three subs between the task force and Formosa, and so the Chinese are aggressively hunting subs.”
“All the more reason to put a few more in,” Chastain argued. They all looked at the President, waiting for guidance.
The conversation fascinated Patrick McLanahan. This was the White House Oval Office, the center of world power—but thorny questions were discussed and massaged and examined as if they were all sitting around in a farmhouse kitchen in Iowa, discussing the weather and the markets and the crops and trying to decide whether to begin the harvest now or wait another couple days. McLanahan was also surprised at Martindale s hesitancy. Kevin Martindale had never been shy about committing U.S. military forces anywhere, anytime—but the political fallout from the conflict with Iran, and especially the decision to fly a B-2 bomber secretly across Chinese airspace to get at Iran from the “back door,” was murderous. Impeachment had been mentioned more than once in interviews with the opposition party, and the media seemed to be fanning those flames. Martindale s presidency was less than six months old, and it was already seriously in hot water.
“Send them,” the President ordered. “Two more subs, specifically against the task force, plus two reinforcements. Right away.” Arthur Chastain made a note to himself to cut orders. The President paused for a moment, then said, “We need more firepower out there, gents, but we don’t have the time. The Navy is our best bet this time, but they’ll take a few days to get set up.” He paused, then said in a contrite, almost embarrassed voice, “And I want this done quietly. I’m getting hammered by the Democrats and the press on the use of the B-2 bomber against Iran. I can’t use the active duty or Reserve bombers. I don’t even like the idea of sending in aircraft carriers, because to me it forces the conflict to a new, deadly level—and it gives the media and the Democrats more ammunition to use against me.”
The President looked at McLanahan and Masters. “General Samson and Air Force chief of staff General Hayes briefed me on the new Megafortress project—of course, I’m well familiar with the previous Megafortress missions,” the President said. “I understand you have eight planes altogether, but crews and weapons for only five. Correct?” Masters nodded. “We need all you can muster for an armed patrol over the Formosa Strait.”
“You got it,” Masters replied immediately. “When and where do you need them?”
“This isn’t a sales meeting, Dr. Masters,” Philip Freeman interjected sternly. “The President is asking you to provide flight crews and experimental strike aircraft for a secret armed patrol mission. The crews could be in serious danger. You could lose the crews, all the aircraft, and your entire investment, and you’d have no recourse or legal redress to recoup your losses. If your crews are captured, they will be tried as terrorists, spies, or armed aggressors, subject to all Chinese criminal laws, without any support or protection from the U.S. government. Think about it first.”
“Okay,” Masters responded. He fell silent for about two heartbeats, smiled, then said, “When and where do you need them?”
“We th
ought about it already,” Patrick McLanahan said resolutely, by way of explaining his boss’s weird reply. “I speak for the aircrews, Mr. President, and we are ready to fly. The planes are fueled, armed, and ready to go. We even have our own aerial refueling tanker fleet, and they’ve been sent to Sky Masters, Inc.’s, facilities in Hawaii. We just need secure basing at Andersen Air Force Base on Guam.”
“We can do that,” Freeman said. He turned to the President and said, “There’s one option ready to execute, Mr. President.”
“How would you be able to help out there, Patrick?” the President asked.
“The Megafortresses carry four different standoff weapons: jammers, antiradar, antiair, and anti-ship,” McLanahan explained. “Nothing is activated until there is some sign of hostilities, and then the response is graduated, depending on what the Chinese do. Our plan is to match, never exceed, the PLAN’s level of hostility. We defend ourselves with every weapon we have, but our primary purpose is to defend the assigned area.”
“How would they be employed?” the President asked.
“Two groups of two, plus one ground spare, for the armed surveillance role,” McLanahan replied. “One plane just outside Chinese long- range radar coverage, the other over the assigned defense area. From the refueling track near Okinawa, it’s one hour to the southern tip of Taiwan, near Quemoy Island, so each bomber can stay about four hours on station. Just before the first bomber is scheduled to depart the station to refuel, the other bomber takes its place. The teams rotate every sixteen hours, so the second team gets a full eight hours of crew rest on the ground. If fighting breaks out, we switch into surge mode—we recover, rearm, refuel, and relaunch bombers as fast as we can, at least two at a time.”
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