by Dale Brown
you wrote concerning this Taiwan reconnaissance/strike mis-
sion."
"Thank you, Sir," Samson responded. "I understand you're
getting a lot of political heat for the things we did. You don't
have to take the fall for this alone, Sir."
"I do, I will, and I'll survive, Terrill," the President said.
"Unless the opposition wants to suspend the Constitution, I'm
on solid ground. You worry about the mission we're thinking
se DALE BROWN
about sending your boys on, I'll worry about the Democrats."
His weak smile told Samson that he was more than just a little
concerned about the political pressure he was under.
"Jerrod's going to call me to go to that American Bar As-
sociation dinner thing in about thirty minutes, so let's get to
it." The President ste6red the three newcomers over to places
around the coffee table in front of the big Resolute desk in the
Oval Office. "Ellen, gents, I think you all know Air Force
Lieutenant General Terrill Samson, commander of Eighth Air
Force and bomber guru. Let me introduce Dr. Jonathan Colin
Masters, boy genius, defense contractor, and reportedly the
smarter younger brother of Merlin the Magician. And this is
ace bombardier Patrick McLanahan. He and I have some sto-
ries that will curl your toes, if they ever declassify them. You'll
never guess how close to the brink we've been together, and
how often we've been there." The Presidential advisors, ex-
cept Philip Freeman, mumbled hellos- and little else.
"Here's what's going on, boys," the President began, tak-
ing his seat at the head of the circle, with Vice President Whit-
ing beside him. "A few weeks ago, the intelligence wonks
said the PRC is massing a naval task force at Juidongshan, of
about forty ships, mostly small combatants but a few large
destroyers and frigates. The press reported it as minor ship
movements associated with Reunification Day celebrations.
We believe the ships have some other purpose. Meanwhile,
the aircraft carrier Mao Zedong moved into Hong Kong
Harbor, supposedly also participating in the Reunification Day
stuff-but then we learned it lifted anchor. Phil, bring us up
to speed.
"In a nutshell, sir: that task force is getting bigger, and the
carrier's on the way to join them," Philip Freeman began.
"Estimated size of the PRC task force right now is fifty-seven
ships, including six Luda-class guided-missile destroyers and
twelve Jianghu-class frigates. Lots of support ships for surface
forces and submarines. The carrier Mao has departed Hong
Kong and is heading north along the coast, apparently to join
the Juidongshan task force. The Mao is being escorted by four
Luda-class destroyers, among others, so the PLAN has almost
all of their operational destroyers involved in this task force.
"Along with the naval task force, we've noted increased
activity at eleven army bases and ten air force and naval air
bases within six hundred miles of Taipei, Taiwan. We're
FATAL T ER RAI N 89
watching a gradual activation of rocket artillery units at the
army bases, with M-9 and M- I I ballistic missiles. We're es-
timating at least two hundred attack planes, one hundred fight-
ers, and fifty long-range bombers on line, each capable of
carrying one or two large anti-ship cruise missiles ... or nu-
clear weapons."
There was a muted "Oh, shit" from someone in the Oval
Office. "Run down the nuclear-capable forces for us, Phil,"
the President asked somberly.
"China's main nuclear threat comes from land-based mobile
missiles," Freeman said, reciting data completely from mem-
ory. "The Chinese have approximately one hundred mobile
medium-range nuclear missiles, each of which can carry
multiple reentry warheads, plus approximately one hundred
mobile short-range single-warhead nuclear missiles similar to
Scuds, and a total of twelve intercontinental-range missiles. A
few of these units have been moved east arrayed against forces
in the Pacific, although most are still set against Russian and
Indian forces in the southwest or north. Only two nuclear-
capable subs in the Chinese fleet; the Navy keeps very good
track of both of them when they put to sea, which is not very
often. The H-6 bombers are all nuclear capable, but with grav-
ity bombs only-so far, the Chinese seem to have no nuclear-
capable air-launched cruise missiles. The bombers are not
considered a threat against a full-up American carrier or sur-
face action group.
"With the addition of the Mao carrier, however, we can
expect the addition of nuclear-capable anti-ship missiles,
particularly the SS-N-12 Granit," Freeman concluded.
"Supersonic, over two-hundred-mile range, big warhead,
radar-guided-a real threat if it gets past the outer and middle
ring of air defense in the carrier battle group. The Sukhoi-27
or-33 fighters deployed on the carrier can presumably deliver
I
nuclear gravity bombs, too."
Chance of the Chinese using nukes for whatever they got
in mind?"
"Until the Philippine conflict in 1994, it was considered
low," Freeman replied. "The Chinese have always disavowed
first use of special weapons-nuclear, chemical, and biologi-
cal. But China used a tactical nuclear weapon against Philip-
pine naval forces in 1994, and threatened to use them again
in March of 1996 if Taiwan held their presidential elections
90 DALE BROWN
and declared independence from the mainland. They even
mentioned military retaliation against the United States if we
should interfere, and refused to deny that they were in essence
threatening to use nuclear weapons against the United States.
"The attacks of course never materialized. We always
thought it was mere rhetoric, but ... I think it would be irre-
sponsible to dismiss any country threatening to use nuclear
weapons. China has an advanced nuclear development pro-
gram, including neutron, fractional orbital bombardment sys-
tems, tactical, battlefield, man-portable, and multi-megaton
weapons. "
"Good ol' Admiral Yin Po L'un, firing nukes around the
South China Sea and Celebes Sea from that huge-ass destroyer
Hong Lung like spitballs in a third-grade classroom," the Pres-
ident reminded everyone wryly. "We're very lucky World
War Three didn't break out. Thanks to Patrick and Jon here,
we put a hole in that destroyer of his big enough to drop a
house through. "
"Well, General Chin Po Zihong is still chief of staff of the
People's Liberation Army; Yin's former second in command,
Admiral Sun, is now a deputy chief of staff; and China has an
apparently fully operational aircraft carrier that our sources say
may be carrying nuclear ballistic missiles and anti-ship cruise
missiles," Freeman summarized. "Chin might be out for re-
venge for what we did to his navy, and Sun might want re-
v
enge for what we did to his brand-new destroyer. A nuclear
weapon might be the only way China can dig the Nationalists
out of the tunnels and mountain fortresses of Quemoy." Two
groups of islands just off the coast of mainland China were
claimed and occupied by Taiwan: the Matsu Islands northwest
of Taiwan, no more than eleven miles off the coast; and Que-
moy, a large island directly west of the island of Formosa and
no more than two miles off the Chinese coast. Both Taiwanese
islands had been heavily bombarded by Chinese artillery and
naval forces in the past, but they had held firm--capturing
them would be a major moral as well as a tactical victory for
the Chinese Communists.
"So you're saying we're looking at the possibility of a nu-
clear war over Taiwan?" the President asked. "Any chance
they're just going to sail all these ships down to Hong Kong
to celebrate Reunification Day?"
"Always a chance of that, sir," Freeman responded, "but
P-
FATAL TER RA I N 91
a better bet would be an invasion force or a covering force
against one of the Taiwanese island formations near the PRC
coastline. The lack of landing craft in the task force suggests
it's not an amphibious invasion, although the aircraft carrier
itself makes a very formidable troop carrier and it does have
the capability to launch amphibious assault ships. The task
force could set up a blockade while their invasion forces go
ashore. Quemoy would be the most logical target. Taiwan gar-
risons approximately fifty-five to sixty thousand Taiwanese
troops there, along with antiaircraft and coast defense missile
sites, but they're nothing but a political trip wire, designed to
inflame the world against the Communists if they attack. The
attack would be over quickly, probably well before we could
do anything to assist.
"The Communists will probably conduct an amphibious as-
sault soon after the missile or bomber attacks-they won't
make the same mistake they did in 1958," Freeman went on.
I 'Then, the Communists bombarded the island for six straight
weeks-it's estimated that every square mile of the island was
hit by two thousand artillery shells. Even after the offensive
stopped, the Communists continued to bombard the island
every other day for eighteen years. But the Nationalists dug
in, using a complex of underground fire bases and supply tun-
nels. The Communists never were able to dig out the Nation-
alists, so the invasion plans were shelved.
"That won't happen again. A neutron-bomb attack would
destroy the island's defenses, and the People's Liberation
Army would simply march right in after the radiation levels
subside in a few months. Target date: right around July first.
Chinese Reunification Day. Maybe earlier, so victory could be
won by Reunification Day."
The President seemed to swallow hard at that bit of news.
"You think they'd start a nuclear war over Taiwan, even
though Taiwan declared its independence and the whole world
will be watching?"
'"I think the Chinese military machine began gearing up for
this offensive several months ago," Freeman replied, "and it's
too late to stop it. In fact, Taiwan declaring independence
probably guaranteed they were going to go ahead with an
invasion. "
'Damn," the President muttered. "The elephant is getting
M
92 DALE BROWN
ready to squash the flea." He paused for a moment, then asked,
"Where are the carriers right now?"
"Admiral Balboa should be here in a few minutes to brief
you, sir," Freeman said, glancing at his watch, "but I'll sum-
marize. We have no carriers within striking range of the Chi-
nese task force or their missile bases, but that can be remedied
in about three days. The Independence battle group is closest,
getting ready to depart Yokosuka on patrol. It's on its last
cruise before retirement, carrying a standard package air wing.
Indy's replacement is the George Washington, getting ready to
depart Pearl, carrying an attack-heavy wing. ETE five days."
"Any other air units in the area?"
"We fly daily P-3 Orion anti-submarine patrols up and
down the Formosa Strait," Freeman responded. "We also
have Air Force reconnaissance planes flying nearby, RC-135
Rivet Joint intelligence-gathering planes. Daily satellite passes
as well."
"I meant strike or defense-suppression air," the President
said.
Freeman nodded. "We've got Marine F/A-18 Hornets and
A-6 Intruders on Okinawa, but they need heavy aerial refuel-
ing tanker support," he replied. "The Orions can carry tor-
pedoes and Harpoon missiles in a strike configuration. We
made the decision not to load up the region so as to avoid
provoking China during their Reunification Day celebrations."
"But it seems to have had a reverse effect," Secretary of
Defense Chastain cut in. "President Jiang sees an opportunity.
He has the people whipped up by all this reunification talk and
solidly behind him, he got the Politburo and military behind
him, and it looks like they're going for it."
The President had little reaction except to ask, "Subma-
rines?"
"We have two Los Angeles-class attack subs, Springfield
and Pasadena, assigned to shadow the Chinese task force,"
Freeman replied. "Two more Sturgeon-class subs are patrol-
ling the Formosa Strait itself, and the Honolulu is shadowing
the Chinese nuclear sub Xia. Two more subs are on patrol in
the South China Sea. All seven subs have relief on the way."
"Two subs versus a fifty-ship task force is a bit skimpy,"
Secretary of Defense Chastain interjected.
"We can have two more subs on station in five to six days,"
Freeman said. "But Taiwan has two, maybe three subs be-
FATAL TER RAI N 93
tween the task force and Formosa, and so the Chinese are
aggressively hunting subs."
"All the more reason to put a few more in," Chastain ar-
gued. They all looked at the President, waiting for guidance.
The conversation fascinated Patrick McLanahan. This was
the White House Oval Office, the center of world power-but
thorny questions were discussed and massaged and examined
as if they were all sitting around in a farmhouse kitchen in
Iowa, discussing the weather and the markets and the crops
and trying to decide whether to begin the harvest now or wait
another couple days. McLanahan was also surprised at Mar-
tindale's hesitancy. Kevin Martindale had never been shy
about committing U. military forces anywhere, anytime-
but the political fallout from the conflict with Iran, and espe-
cially the decision to -fly a B-2 bomber secretly across Chinese
airspace to get at Iran from the "back door," was murderous.
Impeachment had been mentioned more than once in inter-
views with the opposition party, and the media seemed to be
fanning those flames. Martindale's p
residency was less than
six months old, and it was already seriously in hot water.
"Send them," the President ordered. "Two more subs, spe-
cifically against the task force, plus two reinforcements. Right
away." Arthur Chastain made a note to himself to cut orders.
The President paused for a moment, then said, "We need more
firepower out there, gents, but we don't have the time. The
Navy is our best bet this time, but they'll take a few days to
get set up." He paused, then said in a contrite, almost embar-
rassed voice, "And I want this done quietly. I'm getting ham-
mered by the Democrats and the press on the use of the B-2
bomber against Iran. I can't use the active duty or Reserve
bombers. I don't even like the idea of sending in aircraft car-
riers, because to me it forces the conflict to a new, deadly
level-and it gives the media and the Democrats more
ammunition to use against me."
The President looked at McLanahan and Masters. "General
Samson and Air Force chief of staff General Hayes briefed me
on the new Megafortress project-of course, I'm well familiar
with the previous Megafortress missions," the President said.
"I understand you have eight planes altogether, but crews and
weapons for only five. Correct?" Masters nodded. "We need
all you can muster for an armed patrol over the Formosa
Strait."
94 DALE BROWN
"You got it," Masters replied immediately. "When and
where do you need them?"
"This isn't a sales meeting, Dr. Masters," Philip Freeman
intedected sternly. "The President is asking you to provide
flight crews and experimental strike aircraft for a secret armed
patrol mission. The crews could be in serious danger. You
could lose the crews, all the aircraft, and your entire invest-
ment, and you'd have no recourse or legal redress to recoup
your losses. If your crews are captured, they will be tried as
terrorists, spies, or armed aggressors, subject to all Chinese
criminal laws, without any support or protection from the U.
government. Think about it first."
"Okay," Masters responded. He fell silent for about two
