by Dale Brown
of three daughters, a former F-4 Phantom fighter WSO (weap-
ons systems officer) turned computer engineer, Wyle was one
of the U. military's few "triple hats," a commander of three
major military commands: U. Air Force Space Command, in
charge of all of the Air Force's satellites, boosters, land-based
missiles, and launch facilities; U. Space Command, in charge
of all of America's strategic defense systems, such as surveil-
lance satellites and radars; and the North American Aerospace
Defense (NORAD) Command, the joint U. and Canadian
military team dedicated to detecting, tracking, and identifying
all incoming threats against the North American continent. The
four-star general had been the deputy "triple hat" commander
under General Mike Talbot during the last major international
crisis in Asia, when China had first started flexing its blue
water muscles against its neighbors.
"Still waiting for SEWS confirmation of a Chinese I"M
launch," the senior controller reported on the commander's
net in the command center.
" Let's hear what you do know," Wyle ordered.
"SEWS Pacific detected a total of ten missile launches in
east-central China," the senior controller reported. "Subse-
quent sensor hits showing large rocket plumes rising through
the atmosphere, heading east. We have course and speed and
approximate missile weight and performance data correlated
through SEWS."
422 DALE BROWN
"So we're positive that we're looking at Chinese ballistic
missiles?"
"The latest intelligence data says the Chinese still had DF-4
missiles at all of the ten known launch sites in the area of the
current launches-not the longer-range DF-5, not any of the
experimental long-range ICBMs, nor any civil or commercial
Long March boosters," one of the intelligence officers re-
ported. "So we can rule out with very good probability that
the Chinese are not launching satellites, and that the attack is
not against any targets in North America."
That basic information saved a lot of time and wasted ef-
forts-and a lot of officers and technicians who were holding
their breath finally could breathe. It was well-known to every-
one that Peterson Air Force Base would be a likely target for
any enemy seeking to wipe out America's defense network-
but these missiles were not heading for the continental United
States. "Good," Wyle said. "Let's notify the Pentagon and
the NCA, but put it out over the non-emergency priority net."
"We've got a BMEWS confirmation of ten, repeat ten, in-
bounds powering up through the atmosphere," another con-
troller reported. Space surveillance radar sites in Alaska, South
Korea, and the Philippines called BMEWSs or Ballistic Mis-
sile Early Warning Systems, now started tra@king the inbound
missiles, and trajectory projections appeared on the large full-
color monitors in the operations center; they were backed up
by radar satellites called DSSSs, or Defense Surveillance Sat-
ellite Systems. The probable target was pinpointed less than a
minute from first detection: "Impact area, Guam," the con-
troller said.
"Ah, shit-the Chinese launched an attack on Guam,"
Wyle muttered. "Get it out on the network-target Guam.
Time to impact?"
"Twelve minutes," the controller responded.
"Danunit. I hope the Army toads are on their toes this af-
ternoon."
"Sir, now we have a track update via BMEWS and DSSS,-
the controller reported. "We're showing three of the missiles
taking a different trajectory-"
"Where?" Wyle asked. "South Korea? Japan? Alaska?"
"No, sir-it's a flatter trajectory, possibly a satellite inser-
tion profile," the controller responded. "The three missiles are
using power to maintain a two-hundred-and-ninety-mile alti-
FATAL TERRA I N 423
tude. They could be ready to insert satellites into orbit."
"FOB warheads?" Wyle speculated. He knew the Chinese
had FOB, or Fractional Orbital Bombardment technology-
the ability to put a nuclear warhead into low Earth orbit, then
deorbit it anytime it circled the Earth. The warheads could stay
aloft for weeks, virtually untouchable, and could threaten tar-
gets all over the globe.
"Unknown, sir," the controller said. "We' should be able
to get an eyeball on the payloads when they separate." Space
Command maintained space surveillance telescopes all over
the world, which would allow technicians to visually observe
and identify a satellite in orbit-the telescopes were powerful
enough to read a newspaper fifty miles away!
As the Chinese missiles reached apogee, their highest point
in their ballistic trajectory at almost 400 miles up, the long-
range Space Command radars detected the warheads separat-
ing from the boosters and beginning their reentry. "We have
one missile making an erratic track-looks like it's breaking
up in reentry," the controller said. Wyle muttered a silent
prayer, hoping more would follow suit. "Three boosters are
inserting payloads into low Earth orbit, repeat, three payloads
entering orbit. We have three boosters MIRVing, repeat, three
MIRVing ... DSSS now reporting a total of twelve reentry
vehicles, repeat, twelve MIRVs inbound, target Guam.
BMEWS confirms that track, twelve reentry vehicles inbound,
target Guam."
"Confirm for me that an air attack alert has been issued to
all installations and on civil defense nets on Guam," General
Wyle asked in a low, somber voice.
We've confirmed it, sir," a communications officer said.
"Full military and civil EBS notification." Wyle thought
about all the times he had heard the Emergency Broadcast
System tests on TV and radio and simply ignored the nuisance
interruption. Of course, he had been in many places where
people paid attention to EBS-during the floods near Beale
Air Force Base in Marysville, California; the tornadoes near
Omaha, Nebraska; and even on Guam during frequent typhoon
warnings in the summer. But civil defense was a thing of the
past, and suitable hardened, underground shelters outside of
the military bases were rare on Guam. The population of that
tiny, sleepy tropical island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean
was going to take the full force of the Chinese missile attack
424 DALE BROWN
... unless the Patriot missiles could stop them.
As fast as the information could be beamed out by satellite,
the air defense units on the island of Guam were scrambled
and activated. Two U. Army Patriot surface-to-air missile
batteries were stationed on Guam, one on Andersen Air Force
Base in the northern part of the island, and one at Agana Naval
Air Station in the central part. Each Patriot battery consisted
of a command trailer, three large flat "drive-in-theater screen"
radar arrays, and twelve transporter-erector-launcher trailers,
with four missiles per tra
iler, plus associated electrical power
and communications relay trucks. The radars did not mechan-
ically sweep the skies, but they electronically scanned huge
sections of airspace up to fifty miles in all directions, so be-
tween the two sites the entire island of Guam was covered.
The phone at his console buzzed, and he picked it up-he
knew exactly who it would be. "Wyle."
"General Wyle, this is Admiral Balboa," the chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff said. "I'm at the White House. The
President and the SECDEF are here with me. What's the sit-
uation?"
We detected ten missile launches from central China,"
W y le reported. "We're tracking a total of twelve inbound bal-
listic vehicles, all heading for Guam. All tracks confirmed. We
believe with high confidence that the missiles are Chinese East
Wind-4 intermediate-range nuclear ballistic weapons. The re-
entry warheads are believed to be everything from sixty-
kiloton to two-megaton yield."
"Sweet Jesus," Balboa muttered. "Any other launch detec-
tions anywhere?"
"None, Sir."
11 Anything headed for us at all?"'
"Three missiles launched from China inserted small pay-
loads into two-hundred-and-ninety-mile orbits, inclined ap-
proximately thirty degrees from the equator, Sir," Wyle said,
reading information off the large monitors in the command
center. "We haven't identified them yet. Their orbits will take
them over the Pacific, within about two hundred miles of the
Hawaiian islands, but not over the CONUS. They fly over
central China on the backside of their orbits, so they might be
weather or communications satellites, or just decoys."
"I want those payloads positively identified as soon as pos-
FATAL TERRAIN 425
sible, General," Balboa said sternly. "Status of the air defense
sites on Guam?"
"Two Patriot batteries on Guarn. Both are on full alert and
will be directly tracking the inbounds in about five to Six
minutes," Wyle responded.
"The NCA wants an immediate notification on any other
launches," Balboa ordered.
"Yes, Sir, I'll do it personally," Wyle said. "Is the NCA
going airborne?"
"Negative, but we've got Marine One and Two standing
by. 11
"Might be a good idea to get them airborne until we sort
this out," Wyle said. "If any of the inbounds hit, we'll lose
the 720th Space Group on Guam-that cuts out a lot of missile
and satellite tracking and control functions in the Pacific. The
warning net might go down, or suffer a bottleneck .
"I'll pass along your recommendation, General," Balboa
said. "We'll keep you advised." And the line went dead.
Everything that could be done was being done. Along with
providing land-based nuclear intercontinental missiles to Stra-
tegic Command in case of a crisis, Space Command's primary
function was surveillance, detection, tracking, and notification
of an attack from space on the United States, its territories,
and allies. That function was completed-now it was up to
the last line of defense to minimize the damage.
The Patriot air defense missile batteries first detected the
inbound warheads at ninety seconds time-to-impact, but they
could not begin firing the first two-missile volleys until thirty
seconds time-to-impact. The launches were done completely
by computer control, sequencing the launches from both bat-
teries so each salvo would not interfere with another. Every
battery fired all of its missiles-that meant that every incoming
nuclear warhead had eight Patriot missiles flying up to attack
it, launched in four different volleys of two missiles each.
But despite software and hardware upgrades on the system
since its debut as a ballistic-missile killer during the 1991 Per-
sian Gulf War, the Patriot antiair missile system had never
been designed to be an anti-ballistic missile weapon. The Pa-
triot had the advantage of its own onboard terminal guidance
radar, which meant it was much more responsive and agile
and was more capable against fast-moving targets such as in-
bound ballistic missiles or warheads, and the new Tier 3 PUG
426 DALE BROWN
(Patriot Upgrade Group) gave the missile a larger warhead and
a new high-pressure hydraulic actuator system, so it could
move its control surfaces faster to chase higher-speed targets.
Nonetheless, it was still a matter of "bullet-on-bullet," nose-
to-nose precision aiming that was still several years from per-
fection.
Out of twelve inbound warheads, three survived the on-
slaught of Patriot missiles. One sixty-kiloton warhead ex-
ploded two miles west of Orote Peninsula, a total of eight
miles southwest of Agana, just 5,000 feet above the ocean,
leveling most of the high-rise oceanfront hotels and condo-
miniums and creating an instant killer typhoon. Another sixty-
kiloton warhead was blasted off course by a nearby exploding
Patriot missile and was harmlessly fratricided by the preceding
nuclear detonation near Agana. Although the blast damage,
heat, and overpressure effects were enormous, casualties in the
central part of the island would be termed minimal.
But one two-megaton warhead exploded just one and a half
miles north of Andersen Air Force Base at an altitude of less
than 3,000 feet-and every aboveground building on the base
was wiped away in a blast that was greater than the power of
five hundred typhoons. The nearby village of Fafalog com-
pletely disappeared in the fireball. Mount Santa Rosa, the ver-
dant green hill overlooking the military airfield, was instantly
denuded of all vegetation and then sliced nearly in half. The
entire northern one-fifth of the island was immediately set
ablaze, which was extinguished only by the 200-foot nuclear-
spawned tsunami and typhoon-force winds that ripped into the
scarred tropical island.
BARKSDALE AIR FORCE BASE,
BOSSIER CITY, LOUISIANA
"ONE WHO IS ABLE To CHANGE
AND TRANSFORM IN ACCORD WITH
THE ENEMY AND WREST VICTORY IS
TERMED SPIRITUALI"
-Sun_TZ14
The Art of War
TUESDAY, 24 JUNE 1997, 1431 HOURS LOCAL
(1531 HOURS ET)
SKYBIRD, SKYBIRD, message follows: kilo, three, seven, niner,
eight, foxtrot, one. . .,, the U. Strategic Command senior
controller said over the command net, reading off a long string
of phonetic letters and numbers, then repeating the coded mes-
sage with the phrase "I say again. . ."
In the Eighth Air Force command center, two teams of two
controllers were copying the message down, then beginning to
decode the message separately, then comparing their results
with each other; satisfied, they began running the associated
checklist. The checklist would instruct them what message to
transmit to the bomber forces under their command. Both sets
of controllers composed the new
message, then quickly veri-
fied it with each other.
Then, while the first set of controllers began reading the
427
428 DALE BROWN
new coded message on the command post's UHF and VHF
frequency, the second set of controllers copied the message
and passed it along to the battle staff operations officer. He in
turn decoded the message with another officer, checked their
results with the first two sets of controllers-it checked once
again. At least four sets of eyes always checked every message
and every response to be sure they were accomplishing the
proper action. If there was any error anywhere along the line-
a nervous or cracking voice, a hesitation, anything-the other
controller would slap a piece of paper over the codebook, and
the controller reading the message would read, "Stand by,"
then start all over again. The stakes were too enormous to
leave any ambiguities.
"Latest EAM verified, sir," the ops officer reported to the
Eighth Air Force battle staff. "DEFCON Two emergency ac-
tion message." The entire staff opened up their checklists to
the appropriate page, as the ops officer began writing updated
date-time groups up on the command timing board. DEFCON,
or Defense Condition, Two was a higher state of readiness for
all U. military forces; for the bomber forces, it placed them
at the very highest stages of ground alert, just short of taking
off. "Message establishes an 'A' hour only, directing force
timing for one hundred percent of the force on cockpit alert
status, plus fifty percent of available forces as of A plus six
hours to go to dispersal locations," the ops officer went on.
"Bases with missile flight times less than twelve minutes go
to repositioned alert; bases with MFTs less than eight minutes
go to engines-running repositioned alert. The message directs
full Reserve and Guard mobilizations."
Every member of the battle staff reached for telephones as
soon as the minibriefing was over., Lieutenant-General Terrill
Samson, commander of Eighth Air Force, was on the phone
to his boss, the commander of Air Force Air Combat Corn-
