by Ben Shapiro
Beer Buddy: 2. Seymour was generally described as good-natured.
Military: -5. Seymour’s call for a peace treaty with the South, his support for the New York draft riots, and his defense of Copperhead congressman Vallandingham made him a prime target for Republicans waving the bloody shirt.
FINAL SCORE: -37%
Grant won the 1868 election by uttering four words: “Let us have peace.” Seymour lost it by running.
5. BOB DOLE, 1996
In 1996, Bob Dole won the Republican Lifetime Achievement Award. After decades of running for the Republican nomination, he finally got his shot at the White House. There was only one problem. He was already seventy-three years old.
Suits vs. Boots: -1. Dole was from Kansas, which isn’t suit territory, but he was also a career politician with a less-than-rugged reputation.
Age: -5. During World War II, Dole lost the use of his right arm, which made him look unhealthy from the start; his pale pallor and slight stoop accentuated his age. Falling off a stage and into a crowd of reporters in Chico, California, didn’t help his cause. Next to Clinton, Dole seemed older than Methuselah.
Hair: -4. Dole’s high forehead and receding hairline added five years.
Beer Buddy: -5. Though Dole would later prove funny and engaging, he showed little of those qualities during the 1996 campaign. He came off as a crotchety old man lecturing the youngsters.
Military: 1. Dole’s military heroism was truly extraordinary, but it didn’t avail him during the campaign. Running against the alleged draft-dodging incumbent, military issues simply didn’t play.
Spouse: 3. Elizabeth Dole was surely the most impressive first lady candidate in American history. Secretary of labor under George H. W. Bush, secretary of transportation under Ronald Reagan, president of the American Red Cross, Dole was a true asset to her husband during the 1996 campaign.
FINAL SCORE: -34%
Clinton was a terrific image politician, by contrast, clocking in with a 48.5 percent image score. The image differential, combined with the power of incumbency, spelled doom for Senator Dole.
Honorable mentions include John Kerry, George McGovern, Thomas Dewey,William Jennings Bryan, Martin Van Buren, John Quincy Adams, and John Adams.
Where do the 2008 candidates stand? All in all, the 2008 presidential candidates look surprisingly weak.
HILLARY CLINTON: THE MAKEOVER QUEEN
Hillary is easily the most talked about presidential candidate since Teddy Kennedy in 1980. If she wins the nomination, however, she may suffer from image problems, some of them peculiar to being a woman.
Suits vs. Boots: -5. Hillary is a total suit. An Illinois native, she detoured to Arkansas with her husband before grabbing a Senate seat in New York. The leader of the pantsuit brigade, Hillary is not earthy or crunchy. She has little or no Southern appeal, despite her longtime Arkansas residence.When she adopted a horrifically fake Southern accent at a black church in Selma, Alabama, she provoked nationwide laughter.
Height: -3. Hillary stands five-feet-six-inches. How much does diminutive stature hurt a woman? It is difficult to tell. Certainly Hillary’s smallish size benefited her in her 2000 senatorial run—during a debate with Republican Rick Lazio, she was able to convincingly play victim when the taller Lazio aggressively approached her onstage. Nonetheless, Hillary’s size, combined with her high-pitched voice—she sounds particularly awful when she needs to project—makes her seem shrewish rather than feminine.
Age: 2. Hillary will turn sixty-one during the campaign. Her age, combined with her newfound political moderation, may help counter public perceptions that she is a 1960s-era radical.
Hair: -3. Hillary has tried more hairdos than Cher. Her best haircuts soften her face and make her look more, not less feminine. Her hair tends to thin if it lengthens beyond a certain point; her hair likely looked best during her 2000 senatorial run.
Beer Buddy: -5. Hillary projects arrogance; she seems hard as nails. Her profanity-laced, enraged tirades, aimed at her husband and her campaign aides, are the stuff of legend. Hillary ally Susan Estrich defended Hillary by asking, “Since when is being ‘nice’ the basis for being president? Since when does the nicest candidate win?”15 And Estrich is right—the nicest candidate rarely wins. But the candidate who seems the nicest almost always wins. And Hillary can’t even play-act “nice.”
Military: -1. Unlike other candidates, Hillary will never have to answer questions about the Vietnam draft. Hillary will have to answer questions about her reported hatred for the military. Lieutenant Colonel Buzz Patterson, the man who carried the nuclear football during the Clinton Administration, reported that Hillary ordered military aides not to wear their uniforms.16 This type of loathing for the military could come back to haunt the former first lady.
Spouse: 3. Bill Clinton’s appeal is unmistakable. But will public perceptions of a power marriage damage Hillary? Will Bill’s popularity overshadow Hillary’s candidacy?
FINAL SCORE: -34%
Hillary has the potential to be a truly terrible image candidate. She can rescue herself by softening her image. She must smile more, try wearing a skirt on occasion, wear softer colors, soften her hair, and urge Bill to try standing by her side once in a while. Americans are ready and willing to elect a woman—but they are not willing to elect a woman masquerading as a man.
BARACK OBAMA: THE X-FACTOR
Barack Obama has seemingly emerged from nowhere to challenge Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. How would Obama fare in a general election?
Suits vs. Boots: -5. Obama is less of a suit than Hillary, but not by much. He grew up in Hawaii and Indonesia, went to college at Occidental and Columbia, and then attended Harvard Law School. Many have already challenged the authenticity of his African American experience; he did not grow up in the inner city or face serious racism.
Height: 4. Obama is six-feet-two-inches and appears trim and healthy. He set politicos a-twitter when he appeared in People magazine emerging from the Pacific Ocean in a bathing suit. “We see his well-defined pecs, his perfectly hairless torso, just a bit of padding around the abs and a drawstring dangling from his form-fitting surfer trunks,” Dana Milbank of the Washington Post wrote. “The aspiring presidential candidate splashes through the water and squints into the distance; he is transformed into Burt Lancaster in From Here to Eternity.”17
Age: 3. Obama, who turns forty-seven in 2008, uses his age to his advantage, pledging to move beyond the politics of the 1960s, “the psychodrama of the Baby Boom generation—a tale rooted in old grudges and revenge plots hatched on a handful of college campuses long ago—played out on the national stage.”18 This is pap, of course, but it is effective pap. Still, his age could contribute to the perception that he isn’t quite ripe for the presidency.
Hair: 3. Obama’s haircut is close-shorn, giving him a younger look.
Beer Buddy: 4. Obama looks friendly. He has a winning smile and a confident manner.Obama’s biggest danger is the growing perception that he is arrogant; he has a shockingly short resumé for a presidential candidate, which makes him seem ambitious. He gaffed regarding his role in his earlier Chicago organizing, maximizing his own role while ignoring the contributions of others. He must be careful about prevarications—he has already stepped into Al Gore territory once, falsely claiming that “Bloody Sunday” in Selma provided the impetus behind his parents’ marriage (the march occurred in 1965; Obama was born in 1961).
Military: -2. Obama was too young to serve in Vietnam, which works to his advantage. He has blundered with regard to the military, however. He stated in an early campaign speech that soldiers who died in Iraq had “wasted” their lives.19 If that statement was a symptom of Obama’s distaste for the military, it will not be his last antimilitary gaffe. It looks more like a symptom than a simple slip of the tongue—Obama is clearly soft on terrorism, stating that “cynicism” is as much of a threat to peace in the Middle East as “just terrorists” or “just Hamas” or “jus
t Hezbollah.”20
Spouse: 2. Michelle Obama is a career woman and makes no bones about it. She is also a terrific campaign asset—she is energetic, intelligent, an excellent speaker. She must be careful not to intrude too much into her husband’s spotlight, reminding Americans of Hillary circa 1996.
FINAL SCORE: 26%
Obama’s profile is solid.Nonetheless, he’s stuck between a rock and hard place. He must be wary of pinning himself down on policy—if he descends from his pedestal, he will be vulnerable to accusations about his inexperience and rather elite background. If he refuses to talk policy, however, he will have no ground on which to fight star power Republicans—candidates like Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, who have better policy credentials.
JOHN EDWARDS: THE POPULIST
John Edwards was 2004’s Barack Obama: a relative no-name who struck gold. Edwards’s 2004 vice presidential nomination would normally make him a frontrunner in 2008, but the presence of Clinton and Obama has stolen Edwards’s thunder.
Suits vs. Boots: -3. Typically, Edwards’s Southern roots and blue-collar past would have made him a boots candidate all the way. But Edwards is a wealthy trial lawyer and a conspicuous consumer. Edwards’s palatial North Carolina estate, the largest in his county, spans 28,200 square feet.21 Edwards talks about two Americas, but he’s a member of the wealthier half.
Height: 3. At six feet tall, Edwards is telegenic and energetic.
Age: 2. Edwards turns fifty-five in 2008; he was just young enough to miss the Vietnam draft. Unfortunately for him, he can’t claim that age translates into experience—he served just one term in the Senate.
Hair: -3. Edwards has the best hair of anyone running in 2008. His hair is so good that it’s bad for his image; he’s become known as the “Breck Girl.” Edwards has already repeated John Kerry’s crucial $1,000 haircut blunder. In early 2007, he got two $400 haircuts at Torrenueva Hair Designs.22 Many Americans believe that his hair is the sole basis for his popularity.
Beer Buddy: 4. Edwards is universally recognized as a nice guy—the only question to this point has been his inability to establish his gravitas.
Military: 0. Edwards has not blundered—but he hasn’t strengthened his credibility on military issues, either.
Spouse: 5. Elizabeth Edwards is John’s biggest asset. Her rediagno-sis with cancer in March 2007 created a tremendous amount of sympathy for Edwards’s candidacy. It made Edwards seem more serious—he was now facing a truly serious issue. “It’s a helluva way to do it, but cancer may have closed the gravitas gap for John Edwards,” noted Susan Estrich.23
FINAL SCORE: 23%
Edwards can boost his credibility by taking more substantive positions—and canceling a couple of his credit cards. His appeal is the appeal to the common man; if he loses that appeal, he is finished.
RUDY GIULIANI: THE WILD CARD
Rudy’s image is entirely inconsistent. On some issues, he looks tremendous; on others, he looks downright awful. Will his strengths outweigh his weaknesses? Only if he can stop shooting himself in the foot.
Suits vs. Boots: 0. Rudy is a city boy, born and bred. He also poses as a tough guy.His decision to repeatedly quote The Godfather, imitating Marlon Brando, is a conscious—and smart—choice.
Height: 1. At five-feet-nine-and-a-half-inches, Rudy is hardly an imposing physical specimen. His moderate height is tempered by his pugnacious attitude, however. And to most Americans, Rudy remains a bigger than life figure.
Age: -1. Rudy turns sixty-four years old in 2008. He had prostate cancer back in 2000, a development that forced him to drop out of the 2000 New York senatorial race. Now he’s clean, but questions about his health are sure to arise if he takes the Republican nomination.
Hair: 0. Rudy is bald—he would be the first bald presidential candidate since Gerald Ford in 1976. His cue-ball head would normally be a major drawback, but Americans are used to Rudy’s face. Can Rudy make baldness cool?
Beer Buddy: 5. With the notable exception of certain firefighters, Americans see Rudy as a wonderful guy.He’s rough and tough, but warm and caring. He was the kind of guy who attended both 9/11 funerals and 9/11 relatives’ weddings. He has a muscular can-do optimism and a ready smile.
Military: 5. Giuliani did not serve during the Vietnam War; he received two deferments. As America’s mayor, Giuliani shored up his military credentials. America sees Giuliani as a man who can stand up to terrorism—and they know he is a man who can endure under pressure.
Spouse: -3. Giuliani’s checkered marital history—he has been married three times—is bound to hurt him. His third wife, Judith Nathan, has been married three times as well. Giuliani met Nathan while he was still married to his second wife. If Giuliani fails to keep Nathan out of the headlines, he may find himself in hot water.
FINAL SCORE: 20%
Rudy must continue to capitalize on his high-testosterone image while keeping his seedier side out of the tabloids. Rudy has been in the headlines since his election as mayor of New York in 1993, so many of his skeletons have already fallen out of the closet. He can only hope that the YouTube video of him in drag doesn’t get mainstream play.
JOHN MCCAIN: THE MAVERICK
John McCain may have already taken his best shot when he ran for president in 2000. He will have difficulty making it through the Republican primaries. If he does, he will face imposing image issues.
Suits vs. Boots: 4. McCain’s political maverick status is well-known. It also meshes well with his cowboy image. Born the scion of a military family in the American-controlled Panama Canal Zone, McCain ended up in Arizona, where he was eventually elected senator. And yes, he owns a ranch.
Height: -2. McCain stands only five-feet-seven-inches. His height may hurt him in presidential debates, depending on the height of his opponent. Americans will be surprised to see just how undersized McCain is.
Age: -3. McCain will turn seventy-two in 2008, making him the second-oldest nonincumbent candidate in American history, just behind Bob Dole. Unlike Dole, McCain still seems energetic and lively, but his hands are covered in liver spots; his stature and hair mean that he certainly looks his age. “He is visibly older, thinner, balder—and, yes, frailer—than he was just six years ago,” observed Vanity Fair reporter Todd Purdum. “Like his friend Bob Dole, he tries to minimize his disabilities, but they are serious.”24
Hair: -3. McCain joins Giuliani in the bald category, but his is not a clean bald—it’s a completely white comb-over. Rudy was always bald, but we remember when McCain wasn’t; McCain has visibly aged.
Beer Buddy: 4. McCain is likable, but he is also overwhelmingly egotistic. He talks straight and throws in profanity for good measure. He handles the press expertly, but his “Straight Talk Express” may derail if he seems too concerned with press support. He walks a fine line between principle and pandering.
Military: 4. McCain’s POW experience during the Vietnam War sets him apart from the other candidates. Unlike fellow Vietnam War vet John Kerry, however, McCain’s support for the military is unquestioned.
Spouse: 1. McCain has been divorced, but that was thirty years ago. His current wife, Cindy, stays out of the spotlight.
FINAL SCORE: 14%
McCain’s image remains powerful, but he will have to act decisively—as Reagan did in 1980—to counter perceptions that he is too old to govern.
MITT ROMNEY: A QUESTION OF TRUST
Unlike McCain and Rudy, Romney was nationally a virtual unknown before his 2008 run. As governor of Massachusetts, Romney was a liberal Republican; now he campaigns as the conservative candidate in a liberal Republican field. Can he broaden his appeal enough to win a general election?
Suits vs. Boots: -5. Romney was born in Detroit; his father was governor of Michigan and an unsuccessful presidential candidate, his mother an unsuccessful senatorial candidate. Romney is a businessman and lifelong politician. He blundered badly when he posed as a hunting expert, provoking guffaws of incredulous hunters the country over.<
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Height: 4. At six-feet-two-inches, Romney is athletically built and physically prepossessing.
Age: 0. Romney will turn sixty-one in 2008, and has no health problems. He doesn’t have the kind of experience we expect of a man of sixty-one—he’s a one-term governor of Massachusetts. If inexperience hurts Barack Obama, it hurts Mitt Romney.
Hair: 4. Romney is universally acknowledged to have the best hair in the field. His shock of thick black hair and gray patches at the temples give him a strongly presidential feel.
Beer Buddy: 3. “The man exudes niceness, which is one of the qualities that make him an unusually good retail politician,” said John Miller of National Review. “He doesn’t drink alcohol or coffee, smoke cigarettes, or swear—the closest thing to a curse word he’ll ever utter is the adjective ‘bloomin’,’ as in, ‘Can you believe those bloomin’ Democrats?’ But he has to be really worked up before he’ll say it.”25 If there’s such a thing as too nice, Romney borders on it. Then there’s the question of honesty: Romney has repeatedly shifted his positions on social issues. Does he have the passion or depth to grab the bull by the horns?
Military: 0. Romney never served; as governor of Massachusetts, he rarely commented on foreign policy. He stands in strong support of the military, however. He favors a dramatic increase in the military budget.
Spouse: 2. Romney is the only Republican in the field married just once. His wife, Ann, is a dedicated campaigner. “Ann Romney, though largely invisible back home in Massachusetts, is winning praise as a warm and witty sidekick as her husband begins to spread his name and promote his possible candidacy around the country,” said Scott Helman of the Boston Globe.26 Romney’s monogamy may help squash the so-called “Mormon Problem.” Ann’s multiple sclerosis may become a campaign issue, but if it does, it will create sympathy for Romney.
