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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
For helping this book to exist, and make sense, thanks to my agent, Robert Lecker; my editor, Jim Gifford; copy-editor Janice Weaver; managing editor Noelle Zitzer; and the team at HarperCollins Canada.
For generously sharing their time and knowledge, I thank (without implying their agreement with the contents) Pedro de Atauri, Hamid Bolouri, Jack von Borstel, Beatriz Leon, Robert Matthews, Joe McCauley, Wendy Orrell, Stephen Ramsey, and Lenny Smith.
Thanks also to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in the United Kingdom and the Institute for Systems Biology in Seattle, Washington.
INDEX
Page references followed by an italic f indicate the presence of a fgure; page references followed by an italic t indicate the presence of a table.
Abaris
Abraham, Ralph
adenine (A)
adhesion molecules
aeromancy
Aeschylus
AIDS
Aislabie, John
akousmatics
albedo
alchemy and alchemists
Alexander the Great
algebra
Almagest (Ptolemy)
almanacs
amino acids
amniocentesis
anima novens
Annan, Kofi
antibiotics
anti-cyclone
antitheses, Pythagorean
Apollo
altar of
arrows of
and Gaia
on male vs female
as a musician
and Pythagoras
and Socrates
Aristarchus of Samos
Aristophanes
Aristotle
on economic prediction
and Greek Circle Model
laws of motion
Lyceum
on male vs female
on metaphor
on plot structure
on water
on weather
Arrhenius, Svante
Arrow, Kenneth
Asimov, Isaac
Asperger, Hans
asset valuation
balance of
capital asset pricing model
derivatives
future prediction of
intrinsic
non-monetary
as random
asset valuation (continued)
as a social process
sticky” prices
astrology
for economic prediction
horoscopes
for weather prediction
atmospheric dynamics
atmospheric pressure
atomic bomb
attractorf
strange
autism
autisme-économie
auto-regulation
avian fu
Aztec civilization–55
Bachelier, Louis–33
Bacon, Francis
bacteria
E. coli
barometers
Baron-Cohen, Simon
Baur, Franz
behavioural economics
bell curve
Bentham, Jeremyn
Bernoulli, Jakob
bibliomancy
bioinformatics
biological networks
biology
biological prediction
and economics
systems biology
Bjerknes, Vilhelm
Black Monday
Black-Scholes formula
Blair, Tony
Blake, William
Bohm, David
Bohr, Niels
Bolouri, Hamid
Bondi, Hermann
bonds
Bottomless Well (Huber and Mills)
Brahe, Tycho
and Kepler
brain, division of
BRCA genesn
Brentano, Franz
Bruno, Giordano
Bryson, Billn
Buffet, Warren
butterfy effect
calculus
cancer
capital asset pricing model
Capra, Fritjof
Caracas (Venezuela)
carbon cycle
carbon dioxide
Cartesian grid
for calculating distance
of the earth
for weather models
cartomancy
Cassandra
cause-and-effect predictions
Celera
cells
division of
genetic modelling of
metabolic processes of
cellular automata
central dogma
ceraunoscopy
Chaerephon
chance
chaos theory
dough-folding example of
and economic patterns
as historical term
popularity of
vs complexity
and weather models
Charney, Jule
Chavez, Hugo
chemical elements
chiromancy
chlorofuorocarbons (CFCs)
Chomsky, Noamn
Christianity
chromosomes
circles
cities, growth of
civilization, global
cleromancy
climate change. See global warming
climatological forecast
clouds
Clouds, The (Aristophanes)
Club of Rome
Cold War
Columbus, Christopher
comets
Coming Plague, The (Garrett)
compartmentalizing
complex systems
computers
human
World
Comte, August
control theory
Conway, John
Cop
ernicus (Nicolaus Kopernik)
heliocentric model
on motion
Corens, Carl
Coriolis effect
correlation
vs cause and effect
Cortés, Hernán
cosmic harmony
cosmos, Pythagorean
Coulomb, Charles Augustin de
Coupland, Douglas
Cowles III, Alfred
Creutzfeldt-Jacob disease
Crichton, Michael
Crick, Francis
criminality
crooked: vs straight
Crying Game, The (Jordan)
crystallomancy
cystic fibrosis
cytosine (C)
Daisyworld
Danchin, Antoine
Dark Ages
darkness: vs light
Darwin, Charles
and FitzRoy
and Galton
and Malthus
theory of evolution
voyage on the Beagle
Dawkins, Richard
Dee, John
deforestation
forest fres
Delphic Oracle
Delphi (ensemble decision-making),
Democritus
demographics
de Moivre, Abraham
Depression, the (1930s)
derivatives
Descartes, Rene
deterministic science
de Vries, Hugo
dialectic
Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief
World Systems (Galileo)
Diogenes
Discours de la methode (Descartes)
Discourse on Two New Sciences (Galileo),
disease
genetic issues
human immune system
humans as
and micro-organisms
and stress
divination methods
DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid)
determining sequence of
double-helix model
to inspect
"letters" of
measurement of genetic text
and mechanistic science
sequence
DNA tests
Doctrine of Chances, The (de Moivre)
Dolly (ewe)
Draper, John
drift
dynamical system
cells as
gene as
weather as
world as
dynamical systems theory
Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy
(DICE)
E. coli bacteria
earth (planet)
analogy with human body
angle of
as an organic whole
brief history of
as heaviest element
humans as a disease of
earthquakes
Easter Island
economics and economic prediction
agent-based models
analyst forecasting
asset valuation
biological approach to
bubble investments
chartist forecasting
effect of new information on
EMH and market effciency
feedback mechanisms
growth rates of
investors as rational
large-scale forecasts
long-term forecasts
market crashes
measurements in
metabolism of
and policy changes
and political changes
probabilistic techniques
psychology of
role of individuals and society in
social dynamics of
theory of general equilibrium
vs astrology
ecosystem models
effcient market hypothesis (EMH)
as Apollo hypothesis
Buffet's distrust of
dangers of
resilience of
techniques developed from
Einstein, Albert
on atomic bomb
relativity theory
El Avila mudslide (Venezuela)
electrical charges
electromagnetic radiation
electromagnetism
Electronic Numerical Integrator and
Computer (ENIAC)
elements: earth, water, air, fre
ellipse
eminence (as a trait)
empathy
Empedocles
energy consumption models
Engels, Friedrich
English Men of Science (Galton)
Enlightenment
ensemble forecasting
of climate
of economics
of weather
ENSO
environment and environmental issues
historical destruction
models and predictions of
and population growth
Schrodinger's tenets
as a selection mechanism
skeptical arguments
epicycles
epidemics and pandemics
in Athens (430 B.C.)
avian fu
bubonic plague
HIV/AIDS
infuenza (1918)
models for
prediction of
SARS
smallpox
tuberculosis
error, margin of
Essay on the Principle of Population
(Malthus)
Euclid
Eudoxus
eugenics
eukaryotes
Eumenides, The (Aeschylus)
Euphorbus
European Centre for Medium-range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF )
Eurymenes
even: vs odd
evolution
Darwin's theory of
exponential growth
of bacteria
of errors
of market values
of population
regulation of
external noise
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the
Madness of Crowds (Mackay)
Fahrenheit, Gabriel
Fama, Eugene
fat-tailed distribution
feedback
in cell metabolism
in climate systems
in economic patterns
in global systems
"invisible hand"of capitalism
and regression to the mean
and regulatory mechanisms
female: vs male
Field, G.C.
fngerprinting
fnite differences
First World War
FitzRoy, Robert
fyball governor
forecasting and prediction
for 2100
forecast (term)
historical predictions
methods of
forecasting and prediction (continued)
for non-mathematicians
and the Pythagorean antitheses
See also specifc felds (climate, economics,
weather, etc.)
forest fres
fractal geometry
Franklin, Benjamin
Franklin, Rosalind
free will
Freud, Sigmund
Gaia (goddess)
Gaia theory
galactosemia
galactose network and model
Galilean satellites
Galilei, Galileo
and Aristotle
on monetary value
on motion
thermometer
Galilei, Vincenzo
Galton, Francis
and anti-cyclone
eugenics
and FitzRoy
study of fngerprints
study of human traits
use of statistics
and weather maps
Garrett, Laurie
Gaus
s, Karl
Geithner, Timothy
gene pool
general cell model
generalized autoregressive conditional
heteroskedasticity (GARCH)
gene therapies
genetic homogeneity
genetic mutations
and cancer
in genetic research
and nuclear weapons
genetics and genetic research
biological prediction
disease immunity
disease prevention
ethical issues
factors
mathematical models
patents
risk-assessment tests
selfsh gene theory
genotype
geometry
Cartesian grid
fractal
universe based on
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
(GFDL)
models
Geostationary Operational
Environmental Satellites (GOES)
global climate model (GCM)
Global Public Healtmetaphor, Intelligence
Network
global warming
canonical range
complacency and skepticism about
and cooling patterns
economic effects of
and migration patterns
physics of
role of water in
scientists' view of
species migration with
glucose
Godard, Jean-Luc
Goddard Institute
Goethe, Johann Wolfgang von
gold
Golding, William
good vs evil
Gould, Stephen Jay
Graunt, John
gravity
Galileo's work with
Newton's laws of motion
and relativity
Great Year
Greek Circle Model
adjustment of
frst version
Galileo's view of
Kepler's view of
as a predictive device
Ptolemy's view of
second version
theological importance of
Greek mythology
greenhouse gases
Green Revolution (1970s)
Greenspan, Alan
Griffths, Jay
gross domestic product (GDP)
guanine (G)
Guerrien, Bernard
haiku
Halley, Edmund
Hansen, James
Harley, Robert, Earl of Oxford
Harmony of the World (Kepler)
haruspicy
Havel, Vaclav
heart disease
Heisenberg, Werner
Heraclitus
Herceptin
Hertz, Heinrich
high-resolution model
Hillman, James
Hipparchus
Hippasus
hippomancy
histogram
History of the Confict between Religion
and Science (Draper)
History of the Warfare between Science
and Theology in Christendom, A
(White)
Hitchcock, Dian
Hobbes, Thomas
homeostasis
homme moyen, l'
Hood, Leroy
n65
Hooke, Robert
horoscopes
Houghton, Henry G.
