Arctic Gambit

by Larry Bond

  2130 Eastern Daylight Time

  National Security Council Meeting

  The White House

  Washington, D.C.

  * * *

  Knowing where to look had made all the difference. Perry was still working on his notes when Chief of Staff Sellers warned him softly, “The president is en route.”

  Dr. Perry had never been at a National Security Council meeting before, but he’d picked a good one to start with. Held to provide recommendations to the president on current national security issues, it was usually chaired by the vice president, and attended only by those agencies that were involved. That typically meant an undersecretary or a department head, and empty chairs were common.

  There were no empty chairs at this short-notice session, with the secretary of defense, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the national security advisor, Bill Hyland, and numerous intelligence officials present and looking very interested.

  He saw everyone start to stand up, and turned to see President Hardy, with Secretary of State Lloyd in close formation, come in. Lloyd’s arrival caused a small delay as a seat was found for him, which then caused a ripple as the pecking order was adjusted.

  The president’s seat was arm’s length from the podium where Perry stood. Some chief executives liked to be at the far end of the table, but Hardy preferred to be close to the briefer. Luckily, having spoken to him two days earlier had removed some of Perry’s jitters. Besides, he was focused on his news.

  Perry’s brief was short, and he carefully avoided all mention of the original source of information—the Tensor compartment. The first slide was a diagram of the Status-6, which was familiar to most of the people in the room, but below it was the larger, modified version, with a missile in the front instead of a nuclear warhead.

  The second slide showed the difference in capability, with a U.S. map marking likely coastal cities that would be targets for the first weapon, and then a colored band that ran 430 miles inland from each coast, showing how much of the continental U.S. it could reach. Perry heard a few quiet comments, but the bad news was still ahead.

  “Here’s the base they will be launched from,” he said, and he put up a map showing Bolshevik Island, far to the north, and range/time circles showing how far the Status-6 could reach. It was almost certain that the new weapon would go just as far, which included the entire east coast of the United States.

  “This all might seem a little academic for what our intelligence people tell us is a strategic second-strike weapon.” Heads bobbed as many nodded their understanding.

  “But it’s only a second-strike weapon because the Status-6 is unbelievably noisy. It would take many hours to even reach the UK, much less our coast. We really don’t have an effective way to stop them once they are launched, but the Status-6 will never be called ‘stealthy.’”

  He smiled at what seemed like a small joke, but it was a grim smile. “We have determined that the new weapon not only has a different warhead, but we believe a radically different internal structure surrounding the reactor and engine. This is the reason for the increased diameter. The reactor and propulsion turbine are, of course, the two main sources of radiated noise from the weapon. A new sheath, made of nanomaterial, completely encloses them in a structure that is very strong, but also absorbs and diffuses vibrations, which are what become noise when they reach the outer shell of the torpedo. Flow noise can be mitigated by an exterior coating and designing the propulsor properly.”

  Perry paused, and checked President Hardy’s reaction. He knew Hardy’s background, and that he would understand what this meant. “We conservatively estimate the reduction will make the new torpedo about as quiet as a Russian third-generation nuclear submarine, of course while still traveling at one hundred knots. It is possible that it may be even quieter.”

  Bill Hyland, the only person in the room who didn’t look surprised, nodded confirmation. “I reviewed Dr. Perry’s findings before I suggested this emergency meeting. There’s not only scientific literature describing the early stages of this acoustic metamaterial technology, but we’ve been able to locate recent upgrades and activity at an acoustic range located at a lake in Russia. They’d never test this in the open ocean, where there’s a chance they’d be observed.”

  Perry could see a mixture of reactions to the new information. Hardy, who was working it out, looked thoughtful. Others were simply puzzled, but a few faces held expressions of horror or disbelief. As he turned off the flat-screen display, he could see Hardy understood, and Perry connected the dots for those who still didn’t understand.

  “The Russians can launch these weapons and we will almost certainly not hear them approach. When the Tsitrin missile is launched, it will fly so fast that our air defenses won’t have time to react, and its 150-kiloton warhead will burn the heart out of any American city it strikes. State-of-the-art satellite guidance systems will place the warhead within a few meters of its intended impact point; meaning even hardened installations are vulnerable.

  “As terrible as a twenty-plus megaton warhead detonating off the coast of New York or Boston sounds, this weapon is an even greater threat. The most telling case, of course, is Washington, D.C. The Status-6 torpedo could never have negotiated the Chesapeake Bay and the Potomac River to strike here. The river meanders too much and the water’s too shallow. The Dragon torpedo, with the Tsitrin missile, could put a weapon into the Oval Office or the south entrance of the Pentagon five minutes after it leaves the water off the coast.

  “This new torpedo gives the Russians the ability to launch a decapitating nuclear first strike on the United States, with virtually no warning.”

  8

  DETERMINATION

  16 July 2021

  1030 Eastern Daylight Time

  CNN World News

  * * *

  “… don’t know what the Russian name for the weapon is, but it has been assigned the NATO designation ‘SS-NX-35 Shashka.’ The ‘SS-N’ part means it is fired from a surface ship or submarine against a target on the surface. The ‘X’ means it is an experimental system, not in operational service yet, and ‘Shashka’ is the weapon’s nickname assigned by NATO—a type of Russian sword. NATO names for Russian missiles always begin with an ‘S.’” Defense Secretary Richfield looked up from the one-page press release at a Pentagon briefing room packed with reporters. “I can take a few questions.”

  * * *

  President Hardy and Joanna watched the press briefing together from his private study, just off the Oval Office. They’d reviewed the final draft of Richfield’s statement at breakfast. While a few trusted reporters had been “leaked” early copies of the draft statement last night, the missile’s existence would be news to everyone else in the briefing room, in the country, and the rest of the world. In all probability, most Russians wouldn’t know about the weapon their leaders had created.

  Bill Hyland came into the study as Secretary Richfield was answering reporters’ questions. Most were predictable. “When will it enter service? How can it be so fast?” Richfield had rehearsed answers ready.

  Patterson silently gestured for Hyland to take a seat as the conference wound up. After Hardy muted the sound but left the screen on, the national security advisor said, “Well, it’s not a secret weapon anymore.” There was a note of resignation in his voice.

  “And that’s the entire point of this exercise, Bill,” Hardy answered firmly. Hyland was still trying to come to grips with the president’s decision to release highly classified information to the public. “After all, the Russians know all about it. They can still use it for a first strike, and that’s a real problem, but we’ll know who and how.” He grinned. “Nobody likes having their secrets found out. And now they’ll wonder what else we know. The Russians have been using information as a cudgel for years, I think it’s time we do some thwacking of our own.”

  “The Russians use exaggeration, innuendo, and outright lies in their information operations, Mr. President,�
�� countered Hyland. “We are using information derived from highly classified sources, the use of which puts those sources at risk!”

  Hardy frowned; they’d had this discussion earlier. “The DNI and DCI both agree that there is minimal risk to the HUMINT source. The Russians already know about other collection methods. Besides, facts are easier to keep track of and can have a greater impact on the intended target.”

  The television’s image shifted from a briefing room to a news studio. Joanna grabbed the controller and turned up the sound. “It’s Christine, Lowell.” The CNN commentator had been one of the journalists to receive an early copy and a short briefing “on background.” The story was within Laird’s area of expertise, and the administration knew she’d be leading the coverage at CNN. Laird had evidently used the night and early morning to line up “talent” for her show.

  “… is from the Council on Nuclear Weapons, and is an expert on their design and construction. Dr. Ulrich, this not-quite-a-torpedo and not-quite-a-submarine swims incredibly fast and incredibly deep, then launches an equally fantastic missile that can reach hundreds of miles inland. I have to ask, is this really possible?”

  Ulrich nodded, black beard framing his smile. “The Russians have built more than a few exotic weapons. The Shkval is a rocket-propelled torpedo that shocked everyone by how fast it traveled. It entered service in 1977. The Lun was a massive aircraft that skimmed the wave tops and carried six huge antiship missiles on its back. We’ve known about the Status-6 torpedo for some time. Putting a missile payload on it is both imaginative and potentially very effective.”

  Ulrich had brought a map of the U.S. with the missile’s reach shaded in red. It ranged past Pittsburgh on the east coast, and well past Las Vegas if launched from the Pacific.

  “The torpedo vehicle would arrive at the edge of the continental shelf, then rise quickly and eject the missile just below the surface of the water. Because they’ve reportedly made the torpedo quiet, the first detectable sign of an attack would be when missiles leave the water and fly inland. At six times the speed of sound, the missile would take just a few minutes, at most seven, to reach its target. Our military does not have an air defense weapon capable of shooting it down. Actually, it’s questionable whether any nation has a weapon in service or in development that could hit something that fast.”

  “It certainly sounds scary, but Russia has had nuclear-armed missiles for decades. Why do you think are people so scared now?” Laird asked. It was a softball question, but that was deliberate on her part.

  “We all grew up with the frightening knowledge that America and Russia could blow each other up, and the world along with them. The only thing preventing it was ‘deterrence’—the idea that regardless of whoever launched an attack, the other side would see it coming and have twenty to thirty minutes to respond, firing its missiles in return. Both sides would be destroyed, so nobody wanted to start shooting. Mutually assured destruction was a stable defensive doctrine, and it worked for over sixty years.”

  “But now, with this new weapon, there’s little or no warning,” Laird prompted.

  “Exactly. Many of our major cities are within its range, including Washington, D.C. and other military command centers. If they were all suddenly knocked out, that confusion would severely delay an organized response.”

  Ulrich explained, “It actually takes some time to order a nuclear attack, especially an all-out response. There is no red button, big or small. We should take comfort that weapons that can destroy the world are not on a hair trigger. This is why a ‘decapitation’ strike may actually work.

  “It’s likely the first thing anyone would do after hearing Washington had been bombed is ask for confirmation, then ask who’s in charge. In the time it takes us to sort out who’s next in the chain of command and then for that person to decide how to respond, a follow-on attack by Russian nuclear ICBMs could prevent or severely weaken our response. I personally believe it is still impossible to ‘win’ a nuclear war, but the Shashka might make it possible for the Russians to actually survive one. We would not.”

  The camera panned back to show two men, one on either side of Laird and Dr. Ulrich the center. The seating was a tactical move by her. Senator Emmers was on the Senate Armed Services Committee, and Congressman Steve Bartek was on the House Armed Services Committee. Both committees had received a classified brief that morning about the Shashka, and come to very different conclusions.

  “He’s given away the farm!” Emmers almost shouted. “Hardy’s just admitted that the Russians can take us out anytime they want, and we can’t stop them.”

  “President Hardy didn’t create the weapon,” Congressman Steve Bartek, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, argued. “Moscow built this weapon in secret. Hardy’s administration deserves credit for discovering it and warning us that it exists.”

  “He doesn’t seem to be doing much about it. This weapon is a gun not just pointed at our head, but with the hammer cocked.” Emmers’s tone was angry. “We have to match their move. Put our bombers back on round the clock airborne alert. Put nuclear warheads back on our Tomahawk missiles…”

  “Just because the president hasn’t said anything about a U.S. countermeasure doesn’t mean there isn’t one in the works, Senator. Besides, telling the bad guys what you’re doing to stop him seems less than wise. Ramping up our nuclear forces to Cold War levels would only increase the volatility of the European crisis,” Bartek reminded him.

  “And this thing doesn’t?”

  “It would give Fedorin exactly what he likes—an outside threat to rail against.”

  * * *

  “That’s enough,” Hardy ordered. “Turn it off.”

  Patterson protested, “Lowell, please, Steven’s doing such a good job. After his committee was briefed, I warned him that he might get picked by Christine.”

  Hardy’s shocked expression caused her to raise her hands in protest. “Through Bill, of course,” she said, gesturing to the national security advisor. “It’s just that Steven had been on Laird’s show before, so we recommended that he study up, just in case.”

  The president surrendered gracefully. “It was a good idea, and Bill, thanks for passing her idea along.” Hardy sighed. “It just sounds too much like our meeting last night.”

  “Nobody actually shouted, Mr. President,” Hyland pointed out.

  “I may have,” Hardy admitted. “I know we’re taking a domestic hit by not taking the overt steps to counter the…” he paused to check a note on his desk, “Shashka. But I won’t give Fedorin a club to beat us over the head with, and we don’t have the money or the planes to keep bombers aloft twenty-four seven. We can always crank up the DEFCON level later, if we really need to.”

  “Everybody agreed not to mention the base off Bolshevik Island, at least for now,” Hyland offered.

  Hardy nodded. “No point. And while I want the Russians looking over their shoulder, I don’t want to tip them off we know what they’re doing up there, at least until we know more and have a plan. Until then,” the president ordered, “use every- and anything you can think of to track the activity at that place. If they order out for pizza, I want to know whether it’s thick or thin crust.”

  16 July 2021

  1800 Universal Time

  ShippingNews.com

  * * *

  In a follow-up to our earlier report, Ukraine officials have confirmed that the Greek crude oil tanker Xanthos, which suffered an explosion and fire yesterday outside the port of Odessa, was mined. The tanker, fully loaded, was inbound to the port at low speed, in the channel, when an explosion under the hull sent a column of water over a hundred meters into the air. The vessel halted, dead in the water, with a fire in one of the amidships holds.

  Ukrainian Coast Guard boats rescued most of the crew, but three are still missing, and may be trapped forward. The captain reported that the explosion knocked out the fire suppression system, but fireboats are trying to contain the bla
ze while other vessels rig a containment boom. The tanker’s rated capacity is just over three hundred thousand barrels. The authorities are deeply concerned about a spill of this size so close to Ukraine’s largest Black Sea port.

  Even more troubling is the likelihood of more mines. All harbor traffic has been halted until the fire is put out, the spill contained, and the channel has been thoroughly swept. Some commercial operators are refusing to tow the crippled vessel away, and other shipping companies have already begun rerouting vessels or simply canceling sailings to the port.

  Odessa is the only major port left to Ukraine following Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula. Sevastopol was its major port and the largest naval base. The economic effects of Odessa’s harbor being indefinitely closed are still being calculated, but would certainly be severe. Among other things, Ukraine must import oil to supply much of its energy needs.

  The Donbass People’s Militia, a pro-Russian separatist group, claimed responsibility for the attack. An Internet announcement said their underwater commandos had laid “many” mines near the harbor. The Ukrainian Navy and other naval experts doubt this claim, though, because mines large enough to cause such damage cannot be carried or placed by divers. Such mines are typically laid by military aircraft, ships, or submarines, or covertly by merchant ships. While some pro-Russian groups do operate small boats, they do not have submarines or aircraft.

  The Ukrainian Navy has one minesweeper, Henischesk. It was at Sevastopol when the Russians annexed the Crimea in 2014. While the vessel, along with many others, was eventually returned to Ukrainian control, much of its operational equipment had been sabotaged. Although still not fully repaired, the minesweeper will sortie sometime tomorrow to begin searching for other mines.

  The Turkish Navy has offered to send several minehunters to Odessa to assist in clearing the channel. This gesture was widely praised by the Hardy administration officials and the European Union, while condemned by Moscow as another demonstration of the alliances’ creeping invasion into Russia’s Near Abroad.