The Black Swan

Home > Other > The Black Swan > Page 52
The Black Swan Page 52

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb


  Bernard, Claude, 1878, La science expérimentale. Paris: J.-B. Baillière.

  Bernoulli, Daniel, 1954, “Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk.” Econometrica 22(1): 23–36.

  Bernstein, Peter L., 1996, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. New York: Wiley.

  Berridge, Kent C., 2003, “Irrational Pursuits: Hyper-incentives from a Visceral Brain.” In I. Brocas and J. Carillo, eds., 2003.

  Berry, M., 1978, “Regular and Irregular Motion, in Topics in Nonlinear Mechanics,” ed. S. Jorna, American Institute of Physics Conference Proceedings No. 46, 16–120.

  Bevan, Edwyn, 1913, Stoics and Sceptics. Chicago: Ares Publishers, Inc.

  Bewes, Timothy, 2002, Reification: or The Anxiety of Late Capitalism. London: Verso.

  Bewley, Ronald A., and Denzil G. Fiebig, 2002, “On the Herding Instinct of Interest Rate Forecasters.” Empirical Economics 27(3): 403–425.

  Bhalla, U. S., and R. Iyengar, 1999, “Emergent Properties of Networks of Biological Signalling Pathways. Science 283: 381–387.

  Bharat, Barot, 2004, “How Accurate are the Swedish Forecasters on GDP-Growth, CPI-Inflation and Unemployment?, 1993–2001.” Brussels Economic Review/Cahiers Economiques de Bruxelles 47, 2 Editions du DULBEA, Université libre de Bruxelles, 249–278.

  Bikhchandani, Sushil, David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch, 1992, “A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades.” Journal of Political Economy 100 (5): 992–1026.

  Binmore, K., 1999, “Why Experiment in Economics?” Economic Journal 109(453): 16–24.

  Birnbaum, M. H., 1983, “Base Rates in Bayesian Inference: Signal Detection Analysis of the Cab Problem.” American Journal of Psychology 96(1): 85–94.

  Björkman, M., 1987, “A Note on Cue Probability Learning: What Conditioning Data Reveal About Cue Contrast.” Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 28: 226–232.

  ———, 1994, “Internal Cue Theory: Calibration and Resolution of Confidence in General Knowledge.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 58: 386–405.

  Bjorkman, M., P. Juslin, and A. Winman, 1993, “Realism of Confidence in Sensory Discrimination: The Underconfidence Phenomenon.” Perception and Psychophysics 54: 75–81.

  Blake, Carole, 1999, From Pitch to Publication. London: Pan.

  Blake, David, Michael Beenstock, and Valerie Brasse, 1986, “The Performance of UK Exchange Rate Forecasters.” Economic Journal 96(384): 986–999.

  Blaug, Mark, 1992, The Methodology of Economics, 2nd ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Bloch, Marc, 1953, The Historian’s Craft. New York: Vintage Books.

  Blyth, M. R. Abdelal, and Cr. Parsons, 2005, Constructivist Political Economy. Preprint, forthcoming, 2006: Oxford University Press.

  Board, J., C. Sutcliffe, and E. Patrinos, 2000, “Performance of Covered Calls.” European Journal of Finance 6(1): 1–17.

  Bocarra, Nino, 2004, Modeling Complex Systems. Heidelberg: Springer.

  Boettke, Peter J., Christopher J. Coyne, and Peter T. Leeson, 2006, “High Priests and Lowly Philosophers: The Battle for the Soul of Economics,” a forthcoming article in the Case Western Law Review.

  Boghossian, Paul, 2006, Fear of Knowledge: Against Relativism and Constructivism. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  Boots, M., and A. Sasaki, 1999, “‘Small worlds’ and the Evolution of Virulence: Infection Occurs Locally and at a Distance,” Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B266: 1933–1938.

  Bostrom, Nick, 2002, Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy. London: Routledge.

  Bouchaud, J.-P., and M. Potters, 2003, Theory of Financial Risks and Derivatives Pricing: From Statistical Physics to Risk Management, 2nd ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Bourdé, Guy, and Hervé Martin, 1989, Les écoles historiques. Paris: Éditions du Seuil.

  Bourdieu, Pierre, 1992, Les règles de l’art. Paris: Éditions du Seuil.

  ———, 1996, Sur la télévision suivi de l’emprise du journalisme. Paris: Raison d’Agir.

  ———, 2000, Esquisse d’une théorie de la pratique. Paris: Éditions de Seuil.

  Bouvier, Alban, ed., 1999, Pareto aujourd’hui. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France.

  Boyer, Pascal, 2001, Religion Explained: The Evolutionary Origins of Religious Thought. New York: Basic Books.

  Braudel, Fernand, 1953, “Georges Gurvitch ou la discontinuité du social.” Annales E.S.C. 8: 347–361.

  ———, 1969, Écrits sur l’histoire. Paris: Flammarion.

  ———, 1985, La Méditerranée: L’espace et l’histoire. Paris: Flammarion.

  ———, 1990, Écrits sur l’histoire II. Paris: Flammarion.

  Braun, P. A., and I. Yaniv, 1992, “A Case Study of Expert Judgment: Economists’ Probabilities Versus Base-rate Model Forecasts.” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 5: 217–231.

  Brehmer, B., and C. R. B. Joyce, eds., 1988, Human Judgment: The SJT View. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

  Brender, A., and F. Pisani, 2001, Les Marchés et la croissance. Economica.

  Brenner, L. A., D. J. Koehler, V. Liberman, and A. Tversky, 1996, “Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 65: 212–219.

  Brocas, I., and J. Carillo, eds., 2003, The Psychology of Economic Decisions, Vol. 1: Rationality and Well-being. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  Brochard, Victor, 1878, De l’erreur. Paris: Université de Paris.

  ———, 1888, Les sceptiques grecs. Paris: Imprimerie Nationale.

  Brock, W. A., and P. J. F. De Lima, 1995, “Nonlinear Time Series, Complexity Theory, and Finance.” University of Wisconsin, Madison—Working Papers 9523.

  Brock, W. A., D. A. Hsieh, and B. LeBaron, 1991, Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaos, and Instability: Statistical Theory and Economic Evidence. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

  Brockman, John, 2005, Discussion with Benoît Mandelbrot, www.edge.org.

  Brookes-Gunn, J., and G. Duncan, 1994, Consequences of Growing Up Poor. New York: Russell Sage.

  Broughton, W., and E. W. Mills, 1980, “Resource Inequality and Accumulative Advantage: Stratification in the Ministry.” Social Forces 58: 1289–1301.

  Brugger, P., and R. E. Graves, 1997, “Right Hemispatial Inattention and Magical Ideation.” European Archive of Psychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience 247(1): 55–57.

  Bruner, Jerome, 1994, “The ‘Remembered’ Self.” In Ulric Neisser and Robyn Fivush, eds., The Remembering Self: Construction and Accuracy in the Self-Narrative. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  ———, 2002, Making Stories: Law, Literature, Life. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux.

  Bruner, Jerome S., and Mary C. Potter, 1964, “Interference in Visual Recognition” Science 144(3617): 424–425.

  Brunswik, E., 1952, The Conceptual Framework of Psychology. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

  ———, 1955, “Representative Design and Probabilistic Theory in a Functional Psychology.” Psychological Review 62: 193–217.

  Buchanan, Mark, 2001, Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen. New York: Three Rivers Press.

  ———, 2002, Nexus: Small Worlds and the Groundbreaking Theory of Networks. New York: W. W. Norton and Company.

  Budescu, D. V., I. Erev, and T. S. Wallsten, 1997, “On the Importance of Random Error in the Study of Probability Judgment. Part I: New Theoretical Developments.” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 10: 157–171.

  Buehler, R., D. Griffin, and M. Ross, 2002, “Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions.” In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman, eds., 2002.

  Bundt, Thomas, and Robert P. Murphy, 2006, “Are Changes in Macroeconomic Variables Normally Distributed? Testing an Assumption of Neoclassical Economics.” Preprint, NYU Economics Department.

  Burnham, Terence C., 1997, Essays on Genetic Evolution a
nd Economics. New York: Dissertation.com.

  ———, 2003, “Caveman Economics.” Preprint, Harvard Business School.

  Burnham, T., and J. Phelan, 2000, Mean Genes. Boston: Perseus Publishing.

  Bushman, B. J., and G. L. Wells, 2001, “Narrative Impressions of Literature: The Availability Bias and the Corrective Properties of Meta-analytic Approaches.” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 27: 1123–1130.

  Callaway, D. S., M. E. J. Newman, S. H. Strogatz, and D. J. Watts, 2000, “Network Robustness and Fragility: Percolation on Random Graphs.” Physical Review Letters 85: 5468–5471.

  Camerer, C., 1995, “Individual Decision Making.” In John H. Kagel and Alvin E. Roth, eds., The Handbook of Experimental Economics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

  ———, 2003, Behavioral Game Theory: Experiments in Strategic Interaction. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

  Camerer, Colin F., George Loewenstein, and D. Prelec, 2003, “Neuroeconomics: How Neuroscience Can Inform Economics.” Caltech Working Paper.

  Camerer, Colin F., George Loewenstein, and Matthew Rabin, 2004, Advances in Behavioral Economics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

  Cannon, Walter B., 1940, “The Role of Chance in Discovery.” Scientific Monthly 50: 204–209.

  Carnap, R., 1950, The Logical Foundations of Probability. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

  ———, 1966, Philosophical Foundations of Physics. New York: Basic Books.

  Carr, Edward Hallett, 1961, What Is History? New York: Vintage Books.

  Carter, C. F., G. P. Meredith, and G. L. S. Shackle, 1962, Uncertainty and Business Decisions. Liverpool: Liverpool University Press.

  Carter, Rita, 1999, Mapping the Mind. Berkeley: University of California Press.

  ———, 2002, Exploring Consciousness. Berkeley: University of California Press.

  Casanova, Giovanni Giacomo, 1880, Mémoires de J. Casanova de Seingalt. Paris: Garnier Frères.

  Casscells, W., A. Schoenberger, and T. Grayboys, 1978, “Interpretation by Physicians of Clinical Laboratory Results.” New England Journal of Medicine 299: 999–1000.

  Cerf, Christopher, and Victor Navasky, 1998, The Expert Speaks: The Definitive Compendium of Authoritative Misinformation. New York: Villard Books.

  Certeau, Michel de, 1975, L’Ecriture de l’histoire. Paris: Gallimard.

  Chamley, Christophe P., 2004, Rational Herds: Economic Models of Social Learning. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Chancellor, Edward, 1999, Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux.

  Chartier, Roger, 1996, Culture et société. L’ordre des livres, XVIe–XVIIIe. Paris: Albin Michel.

  Chen, Keith, Venkat Lakshminarayanan, and Laurie Santos, 2005, “The Evolution of Our Preferences: Evidence from Capuchin Monkey Trading Behavior.” Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1524.

  Chen, Qi, Jennifer Francis, and Wei Jiang, 2002, “Investor Learning About Analyst Predictive Ability.” Working Paper, Duke University.

  Cherniak, C., 1994, “Component Placement Optimization in the Brain.” Journal of Neuroscience 14: 2418–2427.

  Chipman, John, 2006, “The Paretian Heritage.” Working Paper, University of Minnesota.

  Cialdini, Robert B., 2001, Influence: Science and Practice. Boston: Allyn and Bacon.

  Cisne, John L., 2005, “Medieval Manuscripts’ ‘Demography’ and Classic Texts’ Extinction.” Science 307(5713): 1305–1307.

  Clark, Barrett, and Pascal Boyer, 2006, “Causal Inferences: Evolutionary Domains and Neural Systems.” Interdisciplines Conference on Causality, see www.interdiscplines.org.

  Clark, Michael, 2002, Paradoxes from A to Z. London: Routledge.

  Clemen, R. T., 1986, “Calibration and the Aggregation of Probabilities.” Management Science 32: 312–314.

  ———, 1989, “Combining Forecasts: A Review and Annotated Bibliography.” International Journal of Forecasting 5: 559–609.

  Cohen, L. J., 1989, The Philosophy of Induction and Probability. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

  Cohen, R., K. Erez, D. ben-Avraham, and S. Havlin, 2000, “Resilience of the Internet to Random Breakdowns.” Physical Review Letters 85: 4626–4628.

  Cole, J. R., and S. Cole, 1973, Social Stratification in Science. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

  Cole, J. R., and B. Singer, 1991, “A Theory of Limited Differences: Explaining the Productivity Puzzle in Science.” In J. C. H. Zuckerman and J. Bauer, eds., The Outer Circle: Women in the Scientific Community. New York: W. W. Norton and Company.

  Cole, Peter, 2002, Access to Philosophy: The Theory of Knowledge. London: Hodder and Stoughton.

  Cole, S., 1970, “Professional Standing and the Reception of Scientific Discoveries.” American Journal of Sociology 76: 286–306.

  Cole, S., J. C. Cole, and G. A. Simon, 1981, “Chance and Consensus in Peer Review.” Science 214: 881–886.

  Collins, Randall, 1998, The Sociology of Philosophies: A Global Theory of Intellectual Change. Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.

  Conley, D., 1999, Being Black, Living in the Red: Race, Wealth and Social Policy in America. Los Angeles: University of California Press.

  Cooper, John M., 2004, Knowledge, Nature, and the Good, Chapter 1: “Method and Science in on Ancient Medicine.” Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

  Cootner, Paul H., 1964, The Random Character of Stock Market Prices. London: Risk Books.

  Cosmides, L., and J. Tooby, 1990, “Is the Mind a Frequentist?” Paper presented at the 31st annual meeting of the Psychonomics Society, New Orleans, La.

  ———, 1992, “Cognitive Adaptations for Social Exchange.” In Jerome H. Barkow, Leda Cosmides, and John Tooby, eds., The Adapted Mind. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  ———, 1996, “Are Humans Good Intuitive Statisticians After All? Rethinking Some Conclusions from the Literature on Judgment and Uncertainty.” Cognition 58(1): 187–276.

  Courtillot, V., 1995, La vie en catastrophes. Paris: Fayard.

  Courtillot, V., and Y. Gaudemer, 1996, “Effects of Mass-Extinctions on Biodiversity.” Nature 381: 146–147.

  Cousin, Victor, 1820, Cours d’histoire de la philosophie morale au dix-huitième siècle. Paris: Ladrange.

  Cover, T. M., and J. A. Thomas, 1991, Elements of Information Theory. New York: Wiley.

  Cowley, Michelle, and Ruth M. J. Byrne, 2004, “Chess Master’s Hypothesis Testing.” In Kenneth Forbus, Dedre Gentner, and Terry Regier, eds., Proceedings of 26th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, CogSci 2004, Mahwah, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum.

  Crosby, Alfred W., 1997, The Measure of Reality: Quantification and Western Society, 1250–1600. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaly, 1993, Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience. New York: Perennial Press.

  ———, 1998, Finding Flow: The Psychology of Engagement with Everyday Life. New York: Basic Books.

  Cutler, David, James Poterba, and Lawrence Summers, 1989, “What Moves Stock Prices?” Journal of Portfolio Management 15: 4–12.

  Dally J. M., N. J. Emery, and N. S. Clayton, 2006, “Food-Catching Western Scrub-Jays Keep Track of Who Was Watching When.” Science 312 (5780): 1,662–1,665.

  Damasio, Antonio, 1994, Descartes’ Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain. New York: Avon Books.

  ———, 2000, The Feeling of What Happens: Body and Emotion in the Making of Consciousness. New York: Harvest Books.

  ———, 2003, Looking for Spinoza: Joy, Sorrow and the Feeling Brain. New York: Harcourt.

  Dannefer, D., 1987, “Aging as Intracohort Differentiation: Accentuation, the Matthew Effect and the Life Course.” Sociological Forum 2: 211–236.

  ———, 2003, “Cumulative Advantage/Disadvantage and the Life Course: Cross-fertilizing Age and Social Science.” Journal of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social
Sciences 58: 327–337.

  Darwin, Charles, 1859, On Natural Selection. London: Penguin Books, Great Ideas.

  Daston, L. J., 1988, Classical Probability in the Enlightenment. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

  David, Florence Nightingale, 1962, Games, Gods, and Gambling: A History of Probability and Statistical Ideas. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  Dawes, Robyn M., 1980, “Confidence in Intellectual Judgments vs. Confidence in Perceptual Judgments.” In E. D. Lantermann and H. Feger, eds., Similarity and Choice: Papers in Honor of Clyde Coombs. Bern, Switzerland: Huber.

  ———,1988, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World. New York: Harcourt.

  ———, 1989, “Measurement Models for Rating and Comparing Risks: The Context of AIDS.” Conference Proceedings Health Services Research Methodology: A Focus on AIDS, September 1989.

  ———, 1999, “A Message from Psychologists to Economists: Mere Predictability Doesn’t Matter Like It Should, Without a Good Story Appended to It.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 39: 29–40.

  ———, 2001a, “Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment.” International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences 2048–2051.

  ———, 2001b, Everyday Irrationality: How Pseudo-Scientists, Lunatics, and the Rest of Us Systematically Fail to Think Rationally. Oxford: Westview Press.

  ———, 2002, “The Ethics of Using or Not Using Statistical Prediction Rules in Psychological Practice and Related Consulting Activities.” Philosophy of Science 69: 178–184.

  Dawes, Robyn M., D. Faust, and P. E. Meehl, 1989, “Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment.” Science 243: 1668–1674.

  Dawes, Robyn M., R. Fildes, M. Lawrence, and K. Ord, 1994, “The Past and the Future of Forecasting Research.” International Journal of Forecasting 10: 151–159.

  Dawes, Robyn M., and T. L. Smith, 1985, “Attitude and Opinion Measurement.” In G. Lindzey and E. Aronson, The Handbook of Social Psychology, Vol. 1. Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum.

  de Bellaigue, Eric, de., 2004, British Book Publishing as a Business Since the 1960s. London: The British Library.

  De Bondt, Werner, and Andreas Kappler, 2004, “Luck, Skill, and Bias in Economists’ Forecasts.”

  Working Paper, Driehaus Center for Behavioral Finance, DePaul University.

 

‹ Prev