Latent Hazard

by Piers Venmore-Rowland

  He got up, returned to the whiteboard and wrote in red next to PREH: Development properties?

  Rafi felt shattered. It was well after midnight. Sleep deprivation was closing in on him. Slumped over his desk, a sixth sense nagged at him; on the one hand, his brain told him it needed to turn off. On the other hand, a thought was niggling at him: he felt sure there was something obvious he’d missed. He would reread the property company’s accounts one more time and then get some sleep.

  He opened up the accounts for the current and previous years; some sections had scanned badly. He found the note on properties in both sets of accounts. They were not very clear. Rafi took out a blank sheet of paper and started to decipher what was written there. He picked out the word ‘external’ and a word beginning with ‘valu . . .’. It was as if someone had let off a firecracker behind him. He sat bolt upright. His tiredness evaporated. Of course, how bloody stupid of him! The accounting standards required property companies to have annual revaluations.

  He called across to Kate. ‘There’s an external valuer out there with the full details of all the properties in the portfolio. Sorry I’ve been a right plonker not to have thought of this earlier.’ He was annoyed by his elementary slip-up. The nagging had stopped – abject tiredness took over.

  ‘I’m off to get some shut-eye, before I keel over. Kate could you arrange for me to be woken first thing, please?’

  ‘Will do. Sleep well.’

  Rafi slept soundly. By 5.40 a.m. he was back at his desk with a steaming cup of strong coffee, wondering what Thursday might bring. First, he rechecked the web to see if he had missed anything on PREH. There was little there to help him.

  His mind wandered – various pieces of the puzzle swirled around in his head: the bombing of the police station in Bishopsgate in the heart of the City of London just six days earlier; Jameel and his ability to think big; the stake in Renshaw Smithers and PSSAF’s massive involvement in public sector services. He glanced at the list of four properties which didn’t seem to fit into a prime property portfolio. His eyes alighted on the Hartlepool property. He shivered. Bloody hell! What if they really did attack a nuclear power station and put a question mark over nuclear safety and this prompted public opinion to shift away from all things nuclear? And what if at the same time PSSAF went belly up? Flaming heck! The Government would get hit with two huge financial whammies at once.

  Rafi got up and went to the whiteboard, where he wrote in red: Renshaw Smithers and PSSAF fallout – say £10 billion and Nuclear clean-up / decommissioning – black hole – say £75 billion.

  He knew that the Government’s finances were ropey. Their borrowing requirements were already right at the top of what was credible. Oh Hell’s teeth! If the terrorists were able to trigger these two financial horrors, the knock-on effect would result in the gilts market falling like a stone, and then Jameel and his associates could make monumental profits in the derivatives markets, which would make matters even worse. He pondered the possibility a bit longer. They needed a fixed interest and derivatives expert on board to help unravel exactly what the terrorists were up to. He felt sure that Aidan Gilchrist, the best derivatives man he knew, would be able to work out what was going on.

  Rafi looked at the clock on the wall. Property agents would soon be in their offices. The next task was to find the elusive property valuers and quickly. He was pleased that PREH used an external and not an independent valuer. The latter would be difficult to track down quickly as it could have no dealings with the company other than undertaking its valuations. In contrast, an external valuer could undertake other work for the company, and their property lettings, buying or selling work would, with any luck, be recorded on one of the specialist property databases. Rafi realised this was where he had to look. The cynic in him surmised that PREH’s external valuers would be rewarded with excellent fees for their non-valuation work.

  He shouted across to Kate and Emma. ‘As a matter of urgency, we need a contact at a commercial property agent who will do a search of their property databases for us. Do you know anyone? Unfortunately, I now can’t trust any of my contacts.’

  Kate shook her head.

  ‘Would the commissioner be able to help?’ asked Rafi.

  ‘More than likely,’ said Kate. ‘I’ll give him a call.’

  A couple of minutes later she had the name and mobile number of a Mr Perryman: a director at a major international property agent. Kate smiled. ‘The commissioner hopes that this individual will be more cooperative than the vice chancellor!’ she said as she dialled the number and was put through to voicemail. She left a message asking whoever picked it up to return the call as quickly as possible.

  Kate hung up, then rang back and spoke to the receptionist. It transpired that there was no one in from Mr Perryman’s team. The receptionist promised to get the first one in to phone her.

  Ten minutes later Kate received a call from Mr Perryman’s personal assistant: Pam Blake. Kate introduced herself.

  ‘Could I speak to Mr Perryman?’

  ‘I’m sorry; he’s on his way to a property inspection.’

  ‘I have a problem and was wondering whether you might be able to help. What I am about to tell you is in strictest confidence.’

  ‘I understand.’

  ‘We’re investigating a serious crime; my commissioner advises me that your boss is the man to help us access property databases. We could do with his help, now, please!’

  ‘Leave it to me; I’ll contact Mr Perryman and ask for his permission to help you.’

  Only a few minutes later, Pam was back on the phone to Kate.

  ‘I have confirmation that I may help you, within reasonable bounds, of course.’

  ‘Thank you,’ said Kate. ‘May I email you a list of property addresses? What I need,’ she looked down at Rafi’s scribbled note, ‘is the printouts from your in-house database and the industry specialist databases – Focus and EGi – giving details of which agents have done deals at these addresses in the past four years. Could you do this as a matter of urgency?’

  ‘Of course! I’ll get Mr Perryman’s colleague, Justin Smith, to run the searches. As luck would have it he’s just walked in the door.’

  ‘Will you please advise Justin that this information isn’t to be discussed with any of his colleagues. When he’s printed it out, I’d be most grateful if you’d ring me so that I can arrange for it to be picked up. If there’s going to be a delay, could you please let me know?’

  ‘Will do.’

  ‘Thank you, Pam.’

  ‘My pleasure.’

  Kate turned to Rafi. ‘This has all happened so fast. Can you remind me what precisely you are looking for? And what are Focus and EGi?’

  ‘If we can find the external valuer, we can get hold of the property portfolio valuation report. I’ve a feeling it’ll show properties which are not on the mortgage register and which could be part of the terrorist plans. Focus and EGi are the two huge online databases that property agents use to find information on deals done, amongst other things.’

  ‘If it helps us find more properties, it seems like a good call,’ said Kate.

  Rafi didn’t have the opportunity to answer Kate’s comment. She had taken a call from Colonel Matlik.

  ‘Good morning colonel. Your timing is perfect; David has just walked into the room. Let me put you on the speakerphone.’

  ‘Hello David,’ said the distinctive voice of Colonel Matlik.

  ‘Good to hear you again,’ said David.

  ‘I was so sorry to hear of the deaths of your colleagues; rest assured we are leaving no stone unturned at this end,’ said the colonel. ‘And we are treating your request on a strictly need-to-know basis, as asked.’

  ‘The import/export business AEIEA looks interesting; they have a number of local mafia contacts, we believe. I have spoken to a tax inspector and asked him to look at their books. He knows nothing of our suspicions. In one hour’s time he will be paying their warehou
se in the docks a visit. Two of my operatives are tagging along to have a proper look around.’ A deep chuckle was heard.

  ‘Regarding SPAD, the security business; initially we were unable to find any link to them, but the name you gave us is very interesting. Mr Koit was well-connected and very wealthy. He had a shadowy past. The FSB – Russian Federal Security Service – had been keeping an eye on him. They tell me that he was killed in a private plane crash several months ago and that he had some very unsavoury connections with people from Chechnya. Through Mr Koit we have traced a local company specialising in executive training in guns and personal security. They are based deep in the countryside, 20 km from Tallinn. Given the similarity with your SPAD, I have sent two of my officers undercover to see what is there.’

  ‘Thank you,’ said David.

  ‘We are also looking into HFFF and their connection with one or more fishing trawlers operating out of Tallinn. It seems that your terrorists may have quite a set-up here. What worries me is that they aren’t showing the telltale signs of an Al Qaeda cell, but those of a very professional organisation which uses experts rather than recently trained recruits.’

  There was a pause. ‘My team monitors the activities of Russian investors and mafia. This creates tension from time to time with the Russian FSB, but as there is a Chechen connection they’re being most cooperative. Oh, by the way, our laws prohibit us from using phone taps unless we have a Court order from a Judge. A colleague will petition the Judge as soon as the Court opens this morning. I’ll let you know if they produce anything useful.’

  ‘Thank you,’ said David. ‘By the way, how’s Kristina – is she enjoying university?’

  ‘Yes, thank you. When all this is over you must come and visit us. We will talk again soon.’

  The speakerphone went silent.

  David turned to Kate. ‘Kristina is his only daughter; his wife was killed by a car bomb meant for the colonel several years ago. It seems that he upset some people in the Russian mafia who were trying to set up business in Tallinn. He’s a driven man, determined to right the wrong of his wife’s death. Heaven help any terrorist who crosses his path. We couldn’t ask for a better ally.’

  It was 7.45 a.m. when Giles arrived for his morning briefing. He indicated to Kate that she should make a start.

  ‘Commissioner, we’ve uncovered a large amount of background material which indicates that the terrorists are thinking big. As the financial markets are involved we believe that the attacks will be sooner rather than later; probably a matter of days, certainly not weeks.’

  ‘Kate, it does no harm to work to a short timescale, but be very, very careful not to overlook critical pieces of information in your quest for speed.’ The commissioner glanced up and looked at the others. ‘Is that noted?’

  ‘Yes sir,’ they chorused.

  ‘What investigations are ongoing?’ enquired Giles.

  ‘We have a number of balls up in the air, sir,’ replied Kate. ‘The Estonian Security Service is investigating the terrorists’ activities on a firing range outside Tallinn, an Estonian import/export business and the terrorists’ fishing business there. Emma is researching the whereabouts of the terrorists’ trawler fleet, as we believe that they may use it as part of their exit strategy.

  ‘Then,’ continued Kate, ‘Constable Peter Ashby will shortly be doing the rounds with the banks to get confirmation that the private companies we’ve identified are all linked to the terrorists’ venture capital company. Rafi is working on the property angle to see how many of the properties the terrorists own are close to likely targets.’

  She paused. ‘Jeremy’s colleagues are investigating the activities of UKSOIL – UK Student Overseas Initiative Live – and Unicorn Sceptre Finance. They’ve reason to believe that the former is a recruiting ground for student terrorists and the latter provides them with finance. John and his team are working with MI5 to unravel PSSAF and its public sector businesses. This is proving to be an unexpectedly large project. They’re working on the list of its public sector contracts and the senior people on their payroll. The list is long and the names include a couple of Members of Parliament and many very well-connected people. This causes MI5 and us major concerns. Our investigations could be set back if one of these people learned of what we are doing and tipped off the terrorist leaders.’

  David and Giles nodded. Kate continued, ‘Also, Jeremy has received confirmation that Callum’s last meeting was with one of the ring leaders: Maryam Vynckt. She’s a director at Gulf Trade Bank and is ideally placed to move money around unseen, offshore.’

  Giles turned to David. ‘We’ve got a meeting with the London anti-terrorist committee at 12 o’clock. They’re still convinced that the next terrorist attacks will target public places: airports; underground trains, stations, etc. We’ll have to break cover soon or else we’ll be in deep s h one t, if events conspire against us.’

  ‘Basically, we’re caught between a rock and a hard place,’ replied David. ‘If what we’re doing gets out and the terrorists have a plan “B”, we’re scuppered, with few if any leads to work on as to where they might attack next.’

  ‘Kate, how much longer before we have a clearer picture of what they’re targeting?’ asked the commissioner.

  ‘Sir, one of our lines of thinking is that they plan to use their property portfolio as the base for attacks on UK energy installations. Rafi believes their aim is also to disrupt further the financial markets and in the process make a fortune in the derivatives markets. They’re thinking big, as they seem willing to throw away Prima Terra which is worth around £1.5 billion, and we reckon they’ve invested a couple of years in planning these attacks. Kate paused. We also think that they’ll pull the rug from under their public sector company – PSSAF – and all in all give the Government a particularly bloody nose.’

  ‘You’re exaggerating the position, aren’t you?’ asked David.

  ‘Well, no, I’m afraid not; in fact, as things stand I’d be willing to bet a year’s salary on this hunch,’ said Rafi.

  ‘Do, please, keep me informed. See where you’ve got to at 2.00 p.m. David and I will make a decision on who to inform at that point.’

  ‘Could I make a request?’ ventured Rafi.

  ‘What is it?’ enquired David.

  ‘I could do with the help of a top derivatives expert.’

  Jeremy, who had been sitting quietly, spoke up. ‘Seems straightforward enough – you name him, I get him, problem solved.’

  ‘Agreed,’ said the commissioner. ‘Please see to it as soon as we finish this meeting.’

  The two senior officers stood up to leave. ‘We’ll be close at hand should you require any, and I repeat, any assistance,’ said Giles. ‘All this station’s resources are at your disposal – just ask.’

  ‘As are all those of my colleagues,’ added Jeremy.

  The meeting was over.

  Part 3

  ‘Jeremy, using your diplomatic skills, could you pick up Aidan Gilchrist from Maine Leadbetter’s dealing room? Rafi will give you the address,’ said Kate. ‘Do it quietly and get him here as soon as possible. Tell him some cock and bull story that you’re looking into a money laundering scam for MI5 and if he’s not convinced reassure him that you’ve been given his name as a head honcho and a quiet chat would be much appreciated.’

  ‘Oh, you mean, the could-he-give-James-Bond-a-helping-hand story?’ said Jeremy with a grin.

  Kate returned the smile and looked across at him. ‘You read too many comic books!’

  ‘But it isn’t half fun! And what if he’s too busy and won’t come?’ asked Jeremy.

  ‘I suggest you take him somewhere quiet and advise him of the powers of MI5, should they wish to flex their muscles,’ suggested Kate. ‘I think it would be best if you went alone. It’ll raise less suspicion. We don’t want Gilchrist’s colleagues to know what’s going on. I’ll arrange for a car to meet you in the rear car park.’

  Jeremy picked up his jacket
from the back of his chair and was gone.

  ‘Kate, we’re going to need a couple more computers and access to some databases,’ said Emma. ‘Shall I chat to Greg or do you need to clear it with the boss?’

  ‘No problem. I have his delegated authority on this one. Leave it with me,’ replied Kate.

  ‘Rafi, could you please explain in laymen’s terms why the derivatives market is potentially so dangerous?’ John thought for a moment then added, ‘And lucrative?’

  Rafi looked at John and smiled. ‘Put simply, derivatives are a way of betting whether a financial asset will go up or down relative to peoples’ expectations. In our case, let’s say that the terrorists do something which causes the markets to plunge unexpectedly. If they bought – put – contracts in advance, the more the market goes down the bigger the profit they’d make. If you speculate correctly you can make profits of ten, maybe twenty times your initial outlay. However, derivative markets are a zero-sum-game, thus for every winner there’s a loser. They’re the rocket science end of things, which is why I could do with Aidan’s help.’

  ‘Thanks,’ said John. ‘So if the sheikh and his associates were to speculate say £1 billion in these markets and they rig things to go their way, they stand to make £10 to £20 billion? Sort of puts all their planning into perspective, doesn’t it?’

  ‘I fear so,’ replied Rafi.

  A concerned look spread across John’s face. ‘For a payout of £20 billion, heaven only knows what they have planned! Oh, by the way, I’ve been mulling over something you said about their exit plans. If they’re going to use their trawlers, and if they are intending to get that rich they won’t want to hang around. So I would put looking for a fast motor cruiser at the top of my to do list. Just a thought. Must dash now – I’ve got a meeting with my team. Let’s talk soon.’ With that John hurried out of the room.

  Jeremy was standing at reception accompanied by a very unhappy individual. ‘Give DI Adams a bell and tell her I have Mr Gilchrist with me and that I’m heading for the fourth floor interview room.’