Cardinal Angelo Scola, Archbishop of Milan (age 71)
While there was no clear favorite coming into the conclave, Cardinal Angelo Scola was believed by many to be a strong contender. Theologically aligned with the outgoing Pope Benedict, Scola also possessed a strong intellect and an experienced understanding of Vatican politics. He surpassed Benedict, however, in his pastoral experience and popularity with followers and the media, and was viewed by many to be a skilled diplomat capable of fostering more positive relations with other religions.
But he was also one of many possible successors seen to be too similar to Benedict and thus incapable of implementing real change. Cardinal electors from outside the Roman Curia believed that, as archbishop of Milan, he was too entangled with the bureaucracy and petty infighting that was damaging the church as a whole. Also, the long line of Italian popes in times gone by had provoked a staunch resistance to returning so soon to a domestic successor to the Chair of Saint Peter.
Cardinal Gianfranco Ravasi of Italy (70)
Fiercely intelligent, popular with the people, and well respected by the church, Ravasi had held the position of president of the Pontifical Council for Culture, responsible for fostering relations between the church and other cultures, and other key roles within the curia since 2007. He had successfully navigated tricky political dealings within the Vatican and escaped with his reputation intact. Ravasi was both tech and media savvy—attributes that would benefit any new pontiff in his attempts to evangelize the masses in the digital age—and had been praised for his admission of church failings.
Opponents, however, were concerned that Ravasi’s lack of pastoral experience and scholarly bent were reminiscent of the failings of the outgoing pope and would leave him ill qualified to deal with the practicalities of running the Catholic Church. Despite his popularity within the curia, his refusal to get drawn into curial politicking meant there were few solid supporters likely to vote for him ahead of other, more partisan candidates. As with Scola, his Italian background worked to Ravasi’s disadvantage.
Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada (68)
Head of the Congregation for Bishops, in charge of selecting new bishops, Ouellet sat firmly on the conservative side of the divide. Intelligent, experienced, and widely traveled, he emerged quickly as a front-runner owing to his theological prowess, masterful language skills (he spoke six fluently), and firsthand experience of different cultures.
It is agreed among Vatican reporters that the strength of a candidate’s chances can be measured inversely by how much “whispering, rumor and character assassination that person generates.” Ouellet’s position in the running was confirmed when negative stories about his past began surfacing in the media, but his odds were reduced as a consequence. The French Canadian cardinal came under fire for his poor handling of sexual abuse cases in his native Quebec, his failure to combat the sharp drop in church attendance, and his opposition to abortion even in cases of rape. Like Ravasi, Ouellet was also seen by many to be far too similar to Pope Benedict and lacking the necessary grit to tackle the crises facing the church.
Cardinal Christophe Schönborn, Archbishop of Vienna (68)
A former student of Joseph Ratzinger in Regensburg during the 1970s, the archbishop of Vienna was a count before he was a cardinal, descended from the princely House of Schönborn, an aristocratic Austrian family that boasted “two cardinals and 19 archbishops, bishops, priests and religious sisters.” Praised for his openness to dialogue on contentious issues, strong crisis management skills, and progressive views on homosexuality and the use of condoms by HIV/AIDS sufferers, Schönborn was seen as a courageous and intelligent candidate. He had publicly addressed the sexual abuse crisis in his native Austria as early as the 1990s, and as a result was one of three candidates endorsed as credible by the U.S.-based victim support network SNAP (Survivors Network of those Abused by Priests).
Many found his outspokenness refreshing in the context of the Vatican’s traditional behind-closed-doors mentality, but Schönborn’s opponents cited several publicized instances when he had openly intervened in curial matters outside his jurisdiction and aired disagreements with other cardinals via the media. This, they argued, made him a potentially dangerous candidate for the papacy.
Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary (60)
Cardinal Péter Erdő was one of the youngest cardinal electors attending the 2013 conclave. His swift rise to prominence had so impressed many within the curia that he was now considered a serious candidate. As archbishop of Budapest, he was a central figure in the bridge-building efforts with the Orthodox churches and had been praised for developing positive relations with Jewish leaders in Hungary. Erdő was another of the papabile who managed to walk the line skillfully between conservative and liberal factions. He spoke Italian and had held several high-ranking council positions during his career, all of which buoyed his potential in the eyes of Rome. Furthermore, his support was not limited to the Vatican. Through his role as president of the European Bishops—the body that represents bishops from all forty-five countries in Europe—Erdő had built strong relationships with colleagues in Africa and other developing countries when coordinating conferences and other events fostering ecumenical dialogue.
While Erdő’s qualifications were extensive, there were some who feared that his young age—he was just two years older than John Paul II when he took office—would lead to another lengthy papacy. Also counting against him was his perceived lack of charisma, as the next pope had a lot of work to do in drawing followers back to the church.
Cardinal Timothy Dolan of the United States (63)
A highly regarded and enthusiastic evangelist, Dolan was described by John Allen as “easily the most charismatic, media savvy and engaging personality among the 115 cardinals” voting in the 2013 conclave. The archbishop of New York City was a consummate diplomat who appealed to both conservatives and moderates, and he had certainly displayed the necessary teeth required to handle the burdens of the papacy.
Although Dolan was considered to be the American cardinal with the greatest chance of success, his positive attributes were negated by a larger list of reservations. Despite his easy charm, he was a dominant force within the College of Cardinals. This, combined with the idea of a leading figure from the world’s greatest superpower running the Catholic Church, filled many in the curia with horror. He had never worked inside the Vatican, and his domestic record in handling the sexual abuse crisis in his diocese was shaky—he was included in SNAP’s “dirty dozen” list of inappropriate papabile. Many felt he did not have the management skills required to reform the papacy.
THE NEW WORLD
Cardinals from the New World brought concerns of their developing nations, including large-scale poverty and deprivation in often-corrupt and unstable societies. Evangelization was easy, but the Catholic Church was facing stiff competition from Pentecostal and Evangelical Christianity, which were rapidly increasing their numbers in several traditionally Catholic developing countries, such as the Philippines and Brazil, which, when combined with dwindling numbers of priests, was making for quite a challenging scenario.
Cardinal Oscar Rodríguez Maradiaga of Honduras (70)
A courageous and charming champion of the poor, Cardinal Rodríguez Maradiaga had long been touted as “such an obvious candidate to be the first pontiff from the developing world that he might as well start sizing curtains for the papal apartments.” Supporters praised his diplomatic skills both in his personal crusade against the drug trade in Central America (he had to be protected by the military after threats were made against his life) and when representing the Vatican in meetings with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Another of the papabile polyglots, Rodríguez Maradiaga was one of the great hopes for Catholics in developing nations and an ideal candidate to reignite the church’s program of evangelism. Furthermore, his theological views managed to satisfy liberals, through his strong support of social justice, open dialogue
on the use of condoms, and respect for the liberation theology so dreaded by Benedict and John Paul, and conservatives, through his staunch opposition to abortion.
Critics of Rodríguez Maradiaga felt that his lack of experience working within the curia would be detrimental to his papacy. Though seen as a possible successor to Pope John Paul at the 2005 conclave, he managed only three votes in the first ballot before falling away to zero in the second. In the lead-up to the 2013 conclave, SNAP issued a statement naming him as one of the twelve candidates identified as having a poor record in handling sexual abuse scandals. Doubts were reinforced when stories appeared in the media about comments Rodríguez Maradiaga had made in 2002 likening the criticism faced by the Catholic Church in the wake of the sexual abuse crisis to persecution faced under Hitler and Stalin. Rodríguez Maradiaga had suggested that, thanks to Jewish lobbying, American media were attempting to draw attention away from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Unsurprisingly, this caused angry protests by sexual abuse victims and the Jewish Anti-Defamation League.
Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana (64)
When news broke of Benedict’s resignation, Cardinal Peter Turkson was immediately touted as the front-runner. His candidacy carried a significant level of symbolism, owing to what John Allen described as “the undeniable magic” surrounding “the notion of what’s traditionally seen as the planet’s ultimate First World institution being led by a black man from the southern hemisphere.” Dubbed “Conservatism’s Cape crusader” (a reference to his tenure on the cape coast of Ghana), Turkson was a charismatic and popular figure in Africa. He had risen through the curial ranks to hold several senior positions within the Vatican, and this, combined with his pastoral experience, suggested that he was well equipped both to take on evangelism in developing countries and to cope with the myriad difficulties associated with the papacy. A regular on television in his home country, Ghana’s first cardinal spoke several local dialects, as well as English, French, Italian, German, and Hebrew, with an understanding of Latin and Greek thrown in for good measure.
After the initial flurry of enthusiasm, however, Turkson’s chances faded. Whether stemming from excitement or arrogance, he made the rookie mistake of engaging in speculation surrounding his chances, and in an interview with the Associated Press following the resignation of Pope Benedict stated that he would happily assume the role “if it’s the will of God” and that he believed “in a way the church is always and has forever been ready for a non-European pope.” Indiscretions aside, many believed his outspoken views against homosexuality would lead to storms of controversy in more pluralist societies. In a preconclave interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, Turkson remarked that sexual abuse scandals would not spread to Africa because “African traditional systems kind of protect or have protected its population against this tendency.” He sparked further outrage when, during a 2012 meeting with senior members of the curia, he screened a video predicting that soaring Muslim birth rates would quickly lead to a complete Muslim takeover of Europe.
Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, Archbishop of Buenos Aires (76)
Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio had surprised many of his fellow electors when he received forty votes in the third ballot of the 2005 conclave, coming in as runner-up to Cardinal Ratzinger. Back once more on the papabile lists, albeit not among any commentators’ top fives on account of his age and inability to pull in the necessary support last time around, Bergoglio was still favored by those who saw his pastoral abilities as an ideal quality for a future pontiff. Many lauded his rejection of the luxurious life afforded to an archbishop—chauffeur-driven limousines, palatial accommodation, and staff at his beck and call—in favor of a simple apartment and rides on the local buses. Bergoglio also drew support from both conservative and more moderate sides of the church. He was one of the few whose candidacy bridged both sides of the conservative-progressive divide.
In fact, the sheer strength of his candidacy in 2005 had given rise to a smear campaign by opponents within the church and back in his home country regarding his complicity with the Argentine military junta during the Dirty War, and many of the same cardinal electors would be called to vote in 2013. Although he had held several positions on curial councils, Bergoglio’s lack of presence anywhere outside Argentina meant that voters knew little more about him than they had at the previous conclave. There had never been a Jesuit pope, and Bergoglio’s age, at seventy-six, was a concern. Electing another elderly pontiff could lead to another sitting pope plagued by infirmity.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines (55)
The youngest of all the candidates making the papabile lists, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle was very much a new generation of cardinal. He had a Facebook page and hosted programs on YouTube. Seen as the Great Asian Hope in the race for the Chair of Saint Peter, he preached a balanced view of Catholicism that might potentially satisfy opposing sides in the Roman Curia. Like other cardinals from developing countries, Tagle was a staunch campaigner for issues of social justice and a strong defender of the poor. A thoughtful and compassionate intellectual, he had studied in the United States and Rome before returning to pastoral life in his home nation. Like Argentina’s Cardinal Bergoglio, he eschewed the ivory-tower isolation embraced by many senior clergy, preferring instead to ride the bus and invite homeless parishioners into the church to dine with him. Tagle’s strong track record of handling sexual abuse cases in the Philippines also earned him a place on SNAP’s list of three acceptable candidates for the papacy.
The Roman Curia was a deeply traditional place, however, and many of the attributes listed as qualifications were also interpreted as shortcomings. In particular, and similarly to Bergoglio, Tagle’s complete lack of experience of the Vatican would make it nigh on impossible for him to spearhead the bureaucratic shake-up so desperately required in the wake of the Vatileaks scandal. His age was also a cause for concern, for any reforms Tagle might attempt to implement as pope would bring him face-to-face with senior figures within the church who had decades more experience than him and who were likely, in short, to eat him for breakfast. Likewise, as Benedict’s resignation had called into question the entire tradition of lifelong papal service, the majority of cardinal electors did not welcome the idea of a younger pope taking office for ten to fifteen years and then resigning, or potentially sitting in the post for thirty years plus, if previous papal lifespans were anything to go by.
Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer of Brazil (63)
The archbishop of São Paulo was another respected candidate from the New World who benefited from ties to the Old. Cardinal Odilo Scherer came from a family of German immigrants and was educated in Rome. Having held pastoral roles in his home nation and senior roles within the Vatican, Scherer was seen as someone who could easily bridge the divide between Old and New. Confidently outspoken, but not in a divisive way, he was a keen supporter of reforms to bring the church into the twenty-first century, and Vatican pollsters recorded belief that he had the administrative skills to see them through.
Critics, however, were concerned whether this more formal cardinal had the necessary allure to capture the hearts of 1.27 billion followers. Many also felt that he had not adequately handled the rise of secularism and Pentecostalism in Brazil, home to the world’s largest population of Catholics.
DAY ONE: THE FIRST BALLOT
The first day of the conclave followed the same regimented order as in 2005. At 9 A.M. the cardinal electors observed the pro eligendo romano pontifice mass (mass for the election of the Roman pontiff) inside St. Peter’s Basilica. This was followed by lunch at Casa Santa Marta. Then the cardinals donned their brilliant scarlet cassocks and returned to the Apostolic Palace ready for the 3:30 P.M. procession.
As before, the cardinals stepped forward one by one and swore the oath under the gaze of Michelangelo’s Last Judgment, declaring they would never reveal the secrets of the conclave. They were no doubt ordered to swear this with greater vehemence following the sc
andalous conclave diary that had been leaked to Italian media by that still unknown loose-lipped cardinal in 2005. When everyone had sworn, and the command “Extra omnes!” (Everybody out!) had been made, the doors of the Sistine Chapel were pulled closed, and at 5:35 P.M. on March 12, 2013, the conclave to elect the 266th pope began.
The crowds who had gathered in St. Peter’s Square were not deterred by the freezing temperatures and torrential rain, and waited patiently, watching the chimney for signs of smoke. Inside the chapel, the cardinals, having observed a solemn period of deep meditation, proceeded to write the name of their chosen candidate on their ballot papers and brought them to the altar. After all ballots had been cast, the three elected scrutineers began their count.
A little over two hours later, at 7:41 P.M. local time, a trickle of unmistakably black smoke quickly turned into a thick plume, revealing to the world that no pope had been elected and that the Vatican had finally mastered the workings of its chimneys.
Sadly, the furor surrounding the secret conclave diary in 2005 meant there was no cardinal willing to leak the voting tallies to the press, so reports of exact numbers varied. Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported that Cardinal Scola was out in front, with thirty-five votes, followed by Cardinal Bergoglio, with twenty, and Cardinal Ouellet, with fifteen. Other news outlets reported that Scola and Ouellet were neck and neck, followed closely by Bergoglio in third position and the Brazilian Cardinal Scherer in fourth. In the last election, Ratzinger had stormed ahead in the first ballot, with forty-seven votes to Bergoglio’s ten, but this conclave was very much anyone’s game. Reports suggested that old grudges died hard between Italian cardinals and that there were no strategic alliances among nationalities.
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