by Dietmar Wehr
One of his subordinates, a major who’s name Drake couldn’t remember, shook his head. “No, sir. We have plans for putting down insurrection on single planets but nothing for this kind of scale.”
The Chief of Staff looked disgusted. “Why am I not surprised? Get started on developing those plans today.” He turned to look at Drake. “General Trojan, isn’t your Oracle supposed to warn us about these kinds of surprises?”
“That’s correct, sir.”
“Well, why didn’t it warn us?”
“As I’m sure you remember, sir, Oracle is a prototype system designed and programmed to look for patterns in massive amounts of data. The last Oracle Sitrep did flag the fact that a courier, NC233 I believe, had gone missing. Her last destination was Sparta. Interpreting that one data point as a full-blown rebellion is beyond Oracle’s capabilities, sir. Until we got the data chip from Hekla, there just wasn’t enough data for Oracle to reach any kind of conclusion.”
The Chief of Staff thought about that before replying. “Am I correct in thinking that there’s enough data now?”
“Yes, sir.”
“Good! I’m so relieved to hear it,” he said sarcastically. “Maybe Oracle can come up with some useful conclusions and recommendations now?”
Trojan nodded. “I’ll get my people on that immediately, sir.”
“Light a fire under them, General. I don’t like having to make excuses to the Council.”
Chapter Three
Day 183/2539
When all senior members of the General Staff were seated, Trojan cleared his throat and began to speak.
“The purpose of this meeting is to brief you on the Joint Army Navy Planning Group’s Assessment of the Situation with regards to the recent developments on Sparta. This Assessment was based on information evaluated and developed by the group’s Oracle computer. Its designers claim that Oracle can predict the behavior of large groups of individuals not just in military strategic terms but also in economic, political and social terms. As you’ll see from this briefing, Oracle’s conclusions are quite specific, and its recommendations are equally so.
“I’ll start with some background information. We all know that roughly 300 hours ago we received news that Sparta and 24 other planets have apparently formed the System States Union in an attempt to secede from the Federation of Planetary States. The identity of the other 24 planets is not known with certainty at this time. However, Oracle has identified 24 planets as likely candidates, based on the fact that three years ago 25 planets formed an Economic Development and Trade Association headquartered on Sparta. Some of you may remember hearing about that Association at the time it was announced. Since then, this Association has made numerous petitions to the Federation Assembly for action on grievances that include, but are not limited to, high Federation taxes, effective monopoly on interstellar shipping by Earth-based shipping companies, lack of accountability to local governments by Earth-based companies and, finally, lack of action by the Federation to address the long term slump in the interstellar economy. The Federation Council and Assembly have not addressed any of these grievances. This has resulted not only in growing dissatisfaction and even anger towards the Federation among planetary populations but also has encouraged an additional 55 planets to join the Trade Association, with 21 joining in just the last three months alone.”
Trojan paused. The sudden murmur from his audience told him that THAT particular piece of information was a surprise to almost everyone.
“With that background information out of the way, I will now summarize Oracle’s Assessment of the Situation. Despite the fact that this Union involves a small fraction of the total number of currently inhabited planets, Oracle’s assessment is that this Union poses the most serious threat to the stability and continued existence of the Federation that it has ever faced.”
That caused another wave of whispering, and Trojan noticed that both the Army and Navy Chiefs of Staff looked very unhappy. I hope they remember not to shoot the messenger, he thought to himself as he continued.
“The reason this threat is so serious is that Oracle has estimated how quickly the Systems States Union will grow as more planets withdraw from the Federation and join the SSU. If you’ll focus your attention on the overhead display, you’ll see a projection of the size of the SSU based on best case, worst case and most likely case scenarios.”
As soon as Trojan activated the viewscreen, the whispering was replaced by shocked silence. Before anyone could respond, Trojan continued.
“In all cases, you’ll notice that there is an upward curve, which, even in the best case scenario, will include more than half of all inhabited planets within 15 years. Under the worst case, we’ll reach that total within 8 years. Oracle predicts that the Federation as a political entity will dissolve if more than half of its member planets join the SSU.”
Before Trojan could continue, the Navy’s Chief of Staff spoke up.
“Quite frankly, I find those projections hard to believe, but it seems to me that if we wait until one of these scenarios is confirmed, it’ll be too late to do anything about it. Therefore I’m inclined to think we should send a fleet of cruisers to Sparta as soon as possible, as a show of force to nip this insanity in the bud! Would you agree with that, General Trojan?”
Trojan paused before answering. “Well, Admiral Chenko, we did ask Oracle to evaluate the effectiveness of a quickly organized military response, and Oracle came to the conclusion that an expedition of that kind is not only likely to fail to achieve its objective but is also likely to suffer serious losses to ships and personnel. The reasons for that include the fact that we know Sparta had already started to build up its own System Defense Force. Given that, plus the fact that it would take a minimum of six months just to gather enough ships together to even attempt a military intervention, plus the travel time for those ships to get to Sparta, you’d then be looking at a situation where the SSU will have had over a year to prepare its defenses for exactly that kind of attack. Also keep in mind that the Navy’s cruisers were designed mainly for anti-piracy and anti-smuggling roles, not for fleet vs fleet actions or planetary bombardment. Sparta’s System Defense Force will have what they call Missile Boats. They have armor composed of collapsed neutrons, which our cruisers don’t have, and have traded the internal volume usually devoted to hyperdrives for extra missile launchers and missile storage space. There are also serious political implications if the Navy should launch a hasty attack that fails. Oracle predicts that a failed attack would be seen by the rest of the Federation as an SSU victory, which would encourage some planets to join the SSU sooner than they otherwise would have.”
Admiral Chenko did not looked convinced. “Did Oracle have any recommendations as to what we SHOULD do?”
Trojan nodded. “Yes, sir, it did. There are five recommendations. The first is that all Army and Navy personnel who were not recruited from within the Sol System be vetted for their commitment to the Federation via verifier and those who fail the test be dismissed. This will ensure that our remaining forces will not change sides, and we’ll then have a smaller but far more reliable force structure. The second item is to deploy those vetted forces among key planets that Oracle has identified, ones which have not yet joined the SSU, as a way of discouraging those planets from doing so. If we can keep these key planets within the Federation, then the SSU will be significantly weaker in terms of industrial capacity, Gross Planetary Product and strategic resources. In order to accomplish this goal, the third item is a crash program of expansion for both the Army and the Navy. The Army should be expanded to 250,000 men within three years, and to one million men, along with 50,000 tanks, within six years. The Navy should immediately begin a crash building program of warships, and troop transports of at least 300 meters in diameter, with an ultimate goal of 1,000 warships and 500 troop transports. Oracle recognized that this program would be fiscally impossible if attempted with normal government funding procedures, and it has a solu
tion to that problem. This brings us to the fourth point. In the short term, the Federation can order ships built in shipyards here on Earth, but the vast majority of the ships needed to take down the SSU will have to be built elsewhere. The Franklin Tri-system has abundant raw materials and sufficient infrastructure and population to be used as a dedicated shipbuilding center. In addition, its location is ideal as a staging area for both troops and ships in preparation for large- scale military operations against the SSU. The estimated cost of acquiring control of the sources of raw materials, and setting up the necessary mining, refining, manufacturing and assembly capacity using those raw materials and local personnel, would be within the Federation’s economic and fiscal capability. Once the infrastructure is in place, then the cost of building those ships will essentially consist of the salaries of the people working on them, plus the food, water, air and other consumables that they’ll need to do that. The basic materials that the ships will be made from, for all intents and purposes, will be free.
“Oracle also recognized that an undertaking of this size, with eventually hundreds of warships, thousands of interplanetary ships, and millions of personnel scattered among hundreds of planets, all to be coordinated with the time lag inherent in hyperjumps, will be beyond the capability of humans to accomplish effectively without electronic help. Therefore item five is a recommendation to finish Phase II of the Oracle Project and build the full scale version, codenamed Majestic, which it is estimated will be an order of magnitude more capable than the Oracle prototype. Majestic should be manufactured and assembled somewhere within the Franklin Tri-system to minimize communication lag between the Field Commander and the Army and Navy units attached to that Command.”
Trojan paused and looked at Admiral Chenko.
“Well,” said the Admiral, “I have to admit that the notion of a 1,000-warship Fleet is very appealing, but I’m still concerned about how soon we’ll be ready to begin operations under this scenario. When does Oracle calculate that point, General?”
“The estimate is a year and a half to build the infrastructure in the Franklin Tri-system, with the first ships completing their construction cycle a year later, and a minimum of six more months to build up a sizable attack force. So that means three years from the point when the decision to go ahead is made. In the meantime, the Navy will be engaged primarily in transporting newly raised Army units to planets that have not yet joined the SSU to ensure that they remain in the Federation, using a steadily growing fleet of warships and transports built first here on Earth, then later in the Franklin Tri-system.”
Admiral Chenko nodded. “Yes, that makes sense. Oracle seems to have thought of everything, which is to be expected.” Turning to the Army Chief of Staff next to him, Chenko said, “Well, Frank, how’s a million men under arms and 50,000 contra-gravity tanks sound to you?”
Five star general Frank Masterson smiled as he replied. “I’ve always said the Army wasn’t big enough to keep the peace on so many planets, so I’m glad to see that Oracle agrees with me. The question is whether the politicians who run the Council will go along with it. THAT, I have doubts about.” Turning to Trojan, Masterson said, “Okay, General, you’ve given us the highlights. Now suppose you brief us on the details.”
Trojan nodded and manipulated the overhead screen controls. “Certainly, sir. If you’ll turn your attention back to the overhead screen, you’ll see…”
* * *
Several hours later General Trojan stood up as General Masterson and Admiral Chenko emerged from the Council Chamber. Neither man was smiling, which Trojan interpreted as bad news. As they approached, Trojan saluted and was saluted in return. Masterson looked at Chenko, who nodded. Masterson then turned back to Trojan and began to speak.
“Well, the Council took it better than I expected but not as well as we had hoped. They’re not convinced that the Union will experience runaway growth. Therefore Oracle’s million man Army and thousand ship Fleet seems to them excessive and blatant empire building. That’s a direct quote by the way. However, they DID agree that Army and Navy personnel should be vetted for loyalty using verifiers, so that’s been approved. They’ve also agreed to expand recruiting quotas to compensate for those personnel who are dismissed as a result of the vetting. The Navy also got ad hoc funding for another 20 cruisers and 10 troop transports, and the Army got additional funding for another 40 battalions of mobile infantry. In other words, about 2% of what Oracle says we’ll need. In the meantime, the council wants an envoy and three cruisers sent to Sparta to negotiate some kind of a compromise that stops short of outright secession from the Federation. The three cruisers are intended to be a show of force that will intimidate the rebels. Personally, I think the whole thing’s a waste of time, but then again I’m only a five star general, so what do I know?”
He paused, and Trojan took the opportunity to ask, “What about Majestic, General? Did they approve that?”
“R&D, yes. Manufacture and assembly, no. And the R&D budget is a quarter of what we requested, so the technology won’t be available as quickly as we had hoped for. But if they ever decide to build it, we’ll know how. Let’s hope it’s not too late by then. So for now we keep our ears to the ground and wait to see how this situation develops. Your planning group will have plenty of time to tweak Oracle’s scenarios. If Oracle develops any new insights, Admiral Chenko and I want to hear about them, understood?”
“Yes, sir. I understand perfectly.”
“Good. Then you’re dismissed General Trojan.”
Trojan saluted again, turned and walked away. Oracle’s prediction that the Council would not approve the full program was vindicated. He was certain that eventually they would, but by then priceless time would have been lost, and the Federation would have a tougher time playing catch up with the SSU. Trojan’s expression was grim as he walked to his staff aircar. Oracle was predicting a long war.
Chapter Four
Day 295/2539
Commodore Stacker cursed under his breath as he mentally reviewed his secret orders. In his opinion, using the negotiations over the SSU’s status as a front for a surprise attack from space was idiotic. Missiles with conventional explosive warheads were unlikely to ‘decapitate’ the SSU except through sheer luck. Admiral Chenko was smart enough to know that but had told him to carry out the order anyway. To make matters even worse, he had ordered Stacker to take his squadron of three cruisers down to a low orbit over Sparta’s capital city before launching his missile strike. That kind of attack was certain to generate retaliation by ground-based missile defense batteries, and his ships would be lucky to get back beyond the hyper-zone boundary. He should have refused to accept those orders. That would probably have meant kissing goodbye any chance of getting his second star, but at least he’d be alive. He tried to take some consolation from the thought that if he survived this clusterfuck, the Navy Chief of Staff would owe him big-time.
“We’ve achieved orbit just beyond the hyper-zone, Commodore,” said Captain Corvosier, Coral Sea’s CO.
“Might as well let them know we’re here and wish to talk,” said Stacker. “You can also tell Sparta Space Traffic Center that we’ll be dropping down to a low orbit too.” Stacker turned to look at the person standing next to him, Assistant Colonial Secretary Sylvia Santiago. She gave him a serious nod, which he was certain was intended as granting him permission to do what he had just ordered his ships to do. It amused and infuriated him that she clearly thought she was in charge of this mission. Obviously no one had briefed her on the real mission.
“Are we over Sparta City, Commodore?” asked Santiago.
Stacker looked at the main display and frowned. His ships were still too far away, from the planet, to be able to answer that question. “What about that, Captain?” asked Stacker.
The ship’s CO conferred with one of his Bridge personnel and then turned back to Stacker and Santiago. “The capital city is on the far side of the planet right now. It’s still pre-dawn where the
y are, sir. I’ll make sure that we hold position over the city by the time we’re finished spiraling down to low orbit, sir.”
“Very good, Captain. How long will that take?”
“Approximately 22 hours if we come in with a non-threatening approach profile, sir.”
Before Stacker could say anything, Santiago interjected. “I’m not going to wait a whole day before I go down there to meet with President Belloc. As soon as communications have been established, I’m going to offer to meet with Belloc as quickly as possible. A shuttle or ship’s boat or whatever you people call your small craft will have to take me the rest of the way, Commodore.”
Stacker felt his anger rising. His orders were to attack from low orbit BEFORE she was scheduled to travel down to the surface. If he let her go now, she’d be meeting with Sparta’s President at the same time that Stacker’s missiles would be trying to kill him. Admiral Chenko would not be happy if Santiago got killed as collateral damage, but telling her about the proposed attack was not an ideal alternative. She would undoubtedly be put in visual contact with President Belloc before too much longer, and it was important to the mission that she be convincing in her appeals to resolve the situation through negotiations. After talking with her for over two months on the way here, he’d come to the conclusion that she wasn’t a good liar or a good actress and she would, unintentionally of course, act in a way that would tip the rebels off that something was up. Since he couldn’t let her go down there prematurely, and he wouldn’t risk telling her about the real mission, that left just one other option.
