by Dale Brown
“Well, that certainly didn’t take long, gents,” General George Hood, commander of Pacific Air Forces, said on the video teleconference a few minutes later. “I’ve already heard from Admiral Luce at Pacific Command, and he’s already heard it from CJCS and CNO. The Chinese are hopping mad. General McLanahan, did you or someone in your patrol do an intentional high-speed near miss with a Chinese JN-20 fighter this morning—and, may I remind you, the first call came in to the White House at zero-five-hundred hours?”
“That was me, General Hood,” Patrick said. “Colonel Hoffman’s plane had been intercepted by two JN-15s and a JN-20 from the carrier Zheng He, and I thought they were crowding him a little too closely, trying to force a confrontation. I decided I needed to break up that formation.”
“You flew over the JN-20 going supersonic?”
“Yes, sir. It was clear in a million and I had all the players in sight.”
“That was a harebrained thing to do, General, with all due respect,” Hood said. Patrick McLanahan had been retired from the Air Force for many years, but he still had an enduring reputation that garnered respect from even the most senior active-duty Air Force officers. George Hood was definitely one of them: even though he had a higher rank than Patrick when he was on active duty, Patrick McLanahan’s actions all over the world on behalf of the United States of America, his unstoppable drive—and, frankly, his sheer audacity—led Hood to address Patrick as equals. “The Chinese say we were trying to force a confrontation.”
“Of course they did, General Hood,” Patrick said. “They were definitely crowding Colonel Hoffman, and in my judgment they wanted to either chase him out of there or force him to do something belligerent so they could attack.”
“All right, all right,” Hood said. “I assume you have helmet-cam video and radar data downloads of all this?”
“Yes, General,” Patrick said. All their flight helmets were fitted with a high-definition video camera that shot everything the crewmembers saw, and also recorded all intercom, radar, and radio transmissions; the offensive and defensive systems suites’ datalink provided detailed position and performance data to ground stations as well.
“Transmit it to me as soon as you can,” Hood said. “Okay, here’s what PACOM ordered: first, obviously, no more high-speed passes. Second: single-ship patrols from now on.” Patrick’s eyes narrowed with concern; Cutlass’s mouth dropped open in surprise. Hood saw all this on his video teleconference monitor and held up a hand. “I know what you’re going to say, boys. I set up two-ship patrols for a reason, and I’ll keep on lobbying PACOM, but for now let’s do what they say until we get some more sorties under our belt.”
“Yes, sir,” Cutlass said, but he obviously did not like that order.
“Third: no more jamming unless you get illuminated with an uplink or missile-guidance signal.”
“All this puts us at a decided disadvantage, General Hood,” Patrick said.
“That’s the way it’s got to be for now,” Hood said. “Just to clarify, General—what are the airborne patrols armed with?”
“The forward bomb bay is loaded with a rotary launcher with four AIM-120C AMRAAM and four AIM-9X air-to-air missiles, and the aft bomb bay has a three-thousand-gallon fuel tank. The planes also carry chaff, flares, a Sniper targeting pod, and the Little Buddy.” Chaff was used to decoy radar-guided missiles; flares could decoy heat-seekers.
“Good. No other stores are authorized for the airborne patrols,” Hood said.
“The JH-37 we intercepted was carrying antiship missiles as well as air-to-air missiles, sir,” Patrick said, “and they were practicing attack runs on that Navy oiler.”
“Frankly, General McLanahan, I wouldn’t be surprised if your bombers there were recalled,” Hood said. “Your stunt back there could have pushed China to the breaking point. You might have to be sacrificed to keep China happy.”
Hood paused for a moment, then added, “I’ll be honest with you, gents: I think Pacific Command thinks of you guys as not much more than window dressing. Now the White House is afraid that intercept might shove the Chinese over the edge. Sending you home might be the only thing that keeps your stunt from morphing into an international incident, General McLanahan.”
THE WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON, D.C.
SEVERAL DAYS LATER
The White House photographers just finished taking their pictures of the president of the United States and the acting president of China sitting down in the Oval Office together and shaking hands just before their meeting. Vice President Ann Page and many members of the Cabinet stopped by to meet Gao, who warmly greeted them. Finally, the two leaders sat down in their seats in the Oval Office, the president with a cup of coffee and Gao with tea.
“I wish to thank you for agreeing to this informal meeting, Mr. Gao,” President Phoenix said. “I’m sorry we couldn’t make it an official state visit; I’m sure you understand.”
“Of course, Mr. President—I was only appointed president by an unelected body, so I am not technically a head of state,” Gao Xudong said. “But you are very kind to receive me. It is indeed an honor to be in the White House.”
“The honor is mine for you taking time out of your day to leave New York on the eve of your address to the United Nations and meeting us,” Phoenix said. “And thank you for providing the State Department with a draft of your address. That is of course what prompted my request for a meeting.”
“I am happy to do so, Mr. President,” Gao said. “I understand you have concerns about my address?”
“I wanted to clarify some details in your speech, sir,” Phoenix said, “and I was hoping to persuade you to make some changes to the text of your address to reflect the actual situation.”
“Such as, sir?”
“First of all, sir, the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford is not being based in Australia,” Phoenix said. “It is taking part in regularly scheduled exercises with Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and New Zealand.”
“It has not left the area of the southern South Sea and eastern Indian Ocean for many months, and it has put into ports in Australia several times,” Gao pointed out. “And your Marines are definitely based in Australia. The United States first deployed just five hundred Marines—that number has grown to over five thousand.”
“I’m not perfectly familiar with all the details, sir, but I assure you, the Ford is not based in Australia,” Phoenix said. “We no longer have carriers stationed in other countries, all due to the economic slowdown and cuts in military spending.” Gao said nothing. “But now that you mention bases for carriers, we couldn’t help but notice that the Russian Vladimir Putin carrier battle group has been on an extended visit to China. Are you basing Russian carriers at Chinese ports now, sir?”
“The Russian navy has been kind enough to train our carrier aircrew, maintenance personnel, and many other specialties,” Gao explained. “China is also contemplating building a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, and Russian expertise would be of great importance.”
“I see,” Phoenix said. “You also say in your speech that the bombers that are stationed on Guam are armed with nuclear weapons. They are most assuredly not armed with nuclear weapons.”
“Our intelligence suggests otherwise, sir,” Gao said rather sternly. “An in-person inspection of your aircraft and facilities on Guam would be in order to verify that there are no forward-deployed nuclear weapons.”
“That would be acceptable,” the president said. Gao raised his eyebrows in surprise at the response. “We would also like to verify the existence of nuclear weapons aboard your warships in the South China Sea.”
“As you know, sir, China is under martial law at the present time,” Gao said. When he noticed Phoenix’s expression turn to one of deep skepticism, he added, “But I think that can be arranged.”
“Very good,” Phoenix said. “You also say that we are conducting armed airborne patrols of the South China Sea. That also is not true. Only the aircraft on
the ground are armed and are on quick-reaction alert.” He paused for a moment, then said, “China seems to be quite anxious about those aircraft on Guam, Mr. Gao. Guam is an important military base, and access to the Pacific is extremely important for the United States and our allies, as it is with China and her allies. The Continuous Bomber Presence program has been in effect since shortly after 9/11, sir—almost fifteen years. China has never expressed any concerns about the bombers on Guam before now.”
“The nearly tripling of the size of the bomber task force, the addition of more fighters and radar aircraft to the task force on Guam, and the aggressive way the B-1 bombers were used near our aircraft recently all contribute to my government’s concern, Mr. President,” Gao said. “If your goal is to intimidate the People’s Republic of China, Mr. President, you have succeeded.”
“That was not my intention in the least, sir,” Phoenix said. “We have also noted in your speech, Mr. Gao, that the United States is now ‘stationing’ two carrier strike groups in the South China Sea. That also is not true. We conduct regular patrols through the entire western Pacific and South China Sea, but we have not stationed any carriers there. Per our agreement, the transit times and duration of each passage is communicated well in advance to your government, and the carriers are configured so as to not have a ready deck for fixed-wing aircraft.”
“Perhaps that can be modified in my address, sir,” Gao said, although he clearly didn’t like it and didn’t seem too committed to do it. “But our intelligence analysts have noted an increase in the number and frequency of those patrols.”
“Mr. Gao, those patrols were increased after the loss of our patrol plane, patrol helicopter, and rescue helicopter last year,” Phoenix said. “Surely you can understand our deep sense of caution after those tragic losses.”
“Of which China has freely admitted and done everything possible to prove our sincere regret and mitigate the losses to those involved.” There was an uncomfortable pause in the Oval Office; then, a few moments later, Gao said: “President Phoenix, the B-1 bombers patrolling the South Sea—they appear to be different from the ones on ground alert. Can you tell me about them?”
“Seems to me you already have a great deal of information, sir,” Phoenix said.
“I am not trying to be coy, Mr. President,” Gao said, the stiffness of his posture accentuating the edge in his voice. “You have spies in China; we have spies in the United States. It is the nature of the world we live in. But the information we gather only leads to more questions.”
“If I can answer your questions, Mr. Gao, I will; otherwise I will collect the answers right away.”
“Thank you, sir,” Gao said. “We have noted that some of the B-1 bombers have civil registration numbers on them instead of serial or bureau numbers, and some are painted differently. The crews also wear different flight suits than the others. If I may be so bold, sir, but they appear to be civilians or perhaps nonmilitary operators. CIA, perhaps?”
“Contractors,” Phoenix said. Obviously China has spies that were uncomfortably—and possibly dangerously—close to Andersen Air Force Base, he thought, close enough to distinguish subtle differences like registration numbers and flight suit colors. That was very ominous and needed attention. “Civilian contractors, familiar with the aircraft, run under Air Force supervision.”
Gao’s face was the most expressive than it had been the entire meeting. “Indeed. Not military or government?”
“The purpose of those civilian B-1 aircraft is strictly long-range surveillance,” Phoenix said. “They don’t even have weapons operators aboard. They are there to augment our fleet of Global Hawks and other unmanned aircraft. They are much more flexible and responsive than many other sensor platforms.”
“That is very interesting, sir,” Gao said. “Not CIA?”
“Not CIA.”
Gao didn’t seem like he believed Phoenix, but when he searched Phoenix’s face he didn’t sense any attempt at evasion or untruth. “Very interesting,” he said. “But you understand that the presence of long-range strike aircraft such as B-1 bombers only increases our deep concern over your intentions, sir.”
“That’s why I’m telling you about them,” Phoenix said. “They are there to support the Continuous Bomber Presence task force and take the patrol burden away from them. Since we have so few Air Force personnel these days who know about B-1 bombers, we rely on contractors.”
“So these . . . private aircraft, they are not being armed?”
“No.”
“Is it possible to arm them, Mr. President?”
Phoenix leaned forward and looked Gao directly in the eye. “I think that depends on the nature of the threat, Mr. Vice President,” he said. He sat back in his chair after a brief but tense pause. “Truthfully, I don’t know if they can carry weapons, but right now I’ve ordered them to just patrol.”
“Would not the Global Hawks be a better aircraft for overwater patrols, Mr. President?”
“Everyone wants a Global Hawk these days, Mr. Gao,” Phoenix said. “There just aren’t enough to go around. Besides, the Pacific is a big body of water. We got a good deal on refurbished B-1 bombers. It turns out they’re perfect for this mission.”
Gao nodded, still with a slightly surprised look on his face. “Refurbished strategic bombers operated by civilian contractors,” he muttered. “Very interesting indeed.”
“I’d like to get back to the issue of militarizing the western Pacific and South China Sea,” President Phoenix said. “Namely, your new aircraft carriers and the DF-21D antiship ballistic missile sites popping up around the region. You have two carrier battle groups in the South China Sea, and a third we understand, the former Spanish amphibious assault ship, is being readied for deployment in the East Sea. Your DF-21D ballistic missiles cover the entire region, including the Philippine Sea, Celebes Sea, Adaman Sea, and Strait of Malacca.”
“You seem to possess a great wealth of information as well, Mr. President,” Gao observed.
“That seems like a lot of firepower being deployed in a very short period of time, sir,” Phoenix said. “Why?”
“I am sure you know the reasons as well as I, Mr. President,” Gao said. “It is for the very same reasons you have such a large and powerful navy: you have long coastlines, and foreign trade and open lines of communication are essential to you, as it certainly is with China. At the risk of offending you by appearing to lecture you, sir, China has always been vulnerable from the sea. China is surrounded by natural barriers from every direction but the east, and most every foreign invader has attacked from the sea. And in the modern era, China relies more than ever on maritime trade.”
“But the ballistic missiles?”
“Purely defensive in nature, sir,” Gao said. “We are decreasing the size of our army, but it is still large and takes many resources. Our military budget is slowly expanding, and we are trying to modernize, but it will take years, perhaps even generations, to do so. We must rely then on technology for our defensive requirements. Half our population lives within three hundred kilometers of the sea. Our population centers are vulnerable to attack from the sea, even with a large army behind them.”
“The Dong Feng–21 has been described to me as a ‘carrier killer,’ Mr. Gao,” the president said. “Is that your intention—to kill aircraft carriers?”
Gao made what could have been a stiff chuckle. “I have seen your aircraft carriers, sir,” he said. “A missile that you launch from the back of a truck does not appear to me to be a match for a vessel that weighs almost one hundred thousand tons. No, sir, America’s aircraft carriers are not a target for China’s missiles.”
“Mr. Gao, we’ve been studying the DF-21D for almost ten years,” Phoenix said. “It’s based on a mobile medium-range ballistic missile. It has a maximum range of almost two thousand miles and a five-hundred-kiloton nuclear warhead. You’ve deployed dozens of them along your coast and several in foreign countries. You cannot pretend they�
��re insignificant.”
Gao appeared to remain motionless for several moments, then bowed his head slightly. “My apologies, sir,” he said, although his voice did not sound contrite in the least. “I do not intentionally make light of this very serious topic, and I again apologize for not treating you with the proper respect.” Phoenix did not say or do anything in response. “Allow me to speak plainly.”
“Please,” Phoenix said stonily.
“First of all, sir, the Dong-Feng missiles deployed currently are not armed with nuclear warheads,” Gao said. “They have a sixteen-hundred-kilogram high-explosive warhead and a range of only seven hundred kilometers. These are not ‘carrier killers,’ as you say—against a ship that size they may do some damage, but will not sink it.”
“But you can put a nuclear warhead on them, correct?” Phoenix asked.
Now it was Gao’s turn to look the president in the eye and say, “As you said, Mr. President, it depends on the nature of the threat.” Phoenix rewarded him with a hint of a smile and a nod. “Mr. President, let us again speak plainly. We both have vital national matters that require the protection of our armies and navies. We rely on free movement of the sea for our economic well-being. That imperative is not going away any time soon.
“Therefore, I am sure you know well that the People’s Republic of China has no intention of taking down our missiles or decommissioning our carriers,” Gao went on, “no more than the United States would beach its nuclear submarines or dry-dock its carriers. Our nations must protect themselves. It is lamentable that our forces confront each other as they did yesterday, but that is the nature of the world and of the current geopolitical and military posture in which we find ourselves.”
“Sounds like you’re resigned to accepting the current state of affairs, Mr. Vice President,” Phoenix said.
“I try to be realistic and pragmatic, sir,” Gao said. “America used its prosperity and status after World War Two to build a great navy with which to secure the seas so as to expand trade throughout the world. China is merely doing the same. We must export goods, so we must have unfettered access to the world’s oceans—and thus a military force capable of guaranteeing that access.”
