Akechi Mitsuhide frowned. “We didn’t get his head?”
The retainer shook his head. “No, Lord Akechi.”
“Are we sure Nobunaga died?”
The retainer nodded. “The forward guard saw Nobunaga inside organizing a last-minute fight, and then the Temple broke into flames. It was completely surrounded. They died, it is a certainty.”
“And the son, Nobutada?”
“We got his head.”
Mitsuhide smiled for the first time in days.
After Hanno Temple had burned down, Akechi Mitsuhide had been gripped by a feeling of emptiness, desolation, despair – the anger had driven him to assassinate Lord Nobunaga, but after Nobunaga’s death he felt… strange.
Mitsuhide’s retainers had watched over him closely; the master general was in a sort of malaise stupor. They were worried about suicide – some worried out of personal loyalty to Mitsuhide, others because becoming a ronin immediately after killing the preeminent over-lord of the land, Oda Nobunaga, would be fatal to a man’s prospects. The younger samurai might desert and attempt to rebuild a life elsewhere, but the senior retainers would live or die with the Akechi Clan.
Their names would be written in the history books as either conquerors or traitors – there was no middle ground.
The fires had cooled enough for Akechi soldiers to claw through the ruins for Nobunaga’s remains, but it was burnt thoroughly – a highly aggravating anti-climax for the enraged Mitsuhide. No prize, no certainty.
His hatred had melted back inwards; there were concerns Mitsuhide would commit seppuku – and the clan would be destroyed.
But now he was smiling again for the first time since he set on his fateful course.
“Nobutada’s head – bring it to me.”
***
TOYOTOMI PATROL LINES, TAKAMATSU REGION; LATE EVENING
The guard captain turned to his lieutenant: “You recognize that man? Something seems off about him.”
They had been told be on high alert and to arrest anyone passing through that wasn’t known to live in the region.
The reason for the high alert had not been told to the soldiers.
Hideyoshi Toyotomi prided himself on being merciful and kind to the local population – many defeated enemies came willingly over to his banner due to his courtesy and concern – but he had countermanded his past orders. Anyone not known intimately to live in the region was to be arrested and brought to headquarters. If they resisted, rough them up to capture them; kill them if necessary; no one was to get through the checkpoints.
A farmer with a hay cart was standing stupidly at the checkpoint. The situation seemed to be well-in-hand, but something was bothering the guard captain.
“Hey, have two of our guys go around the bank and wait below the road; have another double around slowly and get behind the man.”
Something about that farmer seemed off. The cart, the dress, all of that was normal for the region, but…
The captain ambled over to the checkpoint slowly, calling out, “Who goes there?”
The farmer starts to act like a fool: “Well sir, I’ma just pass through, I got my hay here, sell it the next town over, wanted to get started earlier but the ol’ horse was acting up, I don’t mean no trouble…”
It clicked for the captain –
He’s too tall… has too much muscle under that shabby clothing…
“Arrest him!”
No sooner did the words go out than the farmer darted to the left and dove off the road to the side bank.
The captain shouted –
“Runner! Runner! Breakthrough! Converge!”
The two men who had been posted below the road tangled up with the farmer and all had fallen to the ground. The farmer – rather, the “farmer” – pulled a knife and stabbed out wildly when two more guards fell on him and started beating him senselessly.
“Alive!” the guard yelled. “Alive! Take him alive!”
The Toyotomi samurai overpowered the infiltrator, and it was only the guard captain’s timely personal intervention that stopped the enraged two guards from breaking his teeth.
“Tie him up thoroughly! Search the hay cart. Bring both to headquarters.”
Two samurai were physically sitting on top of the captured man; another was holding one of his arms down.
A final order – “Oh, and make sure it’s not a distraction! Wake the third watch, have them reinforce the position!”
***
VANTAGES #6: CRISIS
Crisis brings out the best and worst in us.
Some crises can be foreseen.
Some crises can even be created intentionally, as we’ll see next chapter.
And some crises come out of absolutely nowhere.
In 1582, the assassination of Nobunaga was that latter type of crisis – no one would have predicted it. Akechi Mitsuhide may have been somewhat unhappy over a few issues, but he was nevertheless reasonably well-favored and with a bright future ahead of him.
Nobunaga’s forces had conquered half of Japan and very little strong resistance was to be had. His dream to unify Japan – Tenka Fubu – seemed inevitable.
And then, just like that, Nobunaga’s light disappeared from the world in a blaze of destruction at Hanno Temple.
Hideyoshi Toyotomi was one of Nobunaga’s most talented generals, and was dug in to a deep siege against the Mori Clan, a stalwart Mori general refusing to surrender the surrounded and flooded Takamatsu Castle.
Everything was going exactly as planned, better than planned, and then the news came –
Nobunaga is dead…
No one in the Toyotomi camp would have to say the obvious:
…and the nation will now be thrown back into chaos.
How do you navigate an unexpected crisis? That is the thrust of this chapter.
***
TOYOTOMI HEADQUARTERS, TAKAMATSU REGION; EARLY NIGHTTIME
Two infiltrators had been arrested: the Akechi samurai disguised as the farmer, and a sohei warrior monk disguised as a wandering preacher.
Neither had talked, but both carried messages that they did not have time to destroy.
Their contents were straightforward and ominous, but unsurprising –
The traitor Akechi Mitsuhide offered an alliance to the Mori Clan against Hideyoshi, and told them to hold fast, not surrender or make peace, and his troops would come to relieve them. Together, they would destroy Toyotomi’s Oda loyalist forces, and split up the spoils.
Hideyoshi, normally so light and playful even when at war, today wore a stern expression.
They had limited the knowledge of Nobunaga’s death to Hideyoshi’s senior retainers, but even these hardened men had initially been demoralized.
But Hideyoshi, with his great way with people, said –
“Hey! If we act all somber and brood, everyone will know something is up. We need to avenge Lord Nobunaga, and we’re not going to do it by sulking!”
He didn’t go as far as to try to be cheerful, but instead converted the mood of his senior counsel from one of mourning to a stern sense of vengeance. No one was smiling, but they were not dour either. Their eyes burned with hateful focus.
Hideyoshi asked aloud,
“Well, what are the odds one of those messengers got through?”
Kanbei’s eyes turned upwards, calculating in his head.
“I think it must be zero. We put reconnaissance on their forward camps, the castle, and the Mori headquarters – and we’ve seen no activity. They know Takamatsu could fall at any moment, we could probably take it by force, and they haven’t roused enough to counterattack if we move first…”
Kanbei thinks a moment longer, and finishes the thought –
“No, no, messengers haven’t gotten through yet; they’d be making counterattack preparations at least. Their kitchen fires aren’t burning hot and not a single horse has whinnied. No messengers have attempted to reach or signal Takamatsu Castle. The Mori don’t know yet. I’m
sure of it.”
Hideyoshi nodded. “How long do we have?”
Kanbei frowns, sighs, thinks. “It really depends. It’s unlikely they get through our sentries, but the long way around our encampments is only a three or four day journey. It’s been a day since Lord Nobunaga’s death. We’ve got… two or three days, at most.”
The siege had been going for months.
Hideyoshi nods, thinks a moment as well, says: “This battlefield doesn’t matter, does it? We can’t fight the Mori with… who-knows-what happening behind us with Nobunaga’s death. And there’s not much gain to be had even if we do win. We have to get back to the center of the action.”
The statement wasn’t directed at anyone in the senior war counsel in particular, but the other senior retainers largely looked on; during intense moments, often Hideyoshi and Kanbei would get in a dialog largely in front of them. The senior retainers were all very cordial and friendly with each other, but at times like these, no one wanted to interrupt the natural strategic genius of Kuroda Kanbei.
Kanbei says, “Of course. We have to get out of here as soon as possible. But…”
Hideyoshi finishes his thought, “…but the Mori will come after us if we retreat hastily.”
Kanbei nods. “That’s my assessment. We probably don’t want to take Takamatsu Castle; we need all our soldiers and it’d be a nightmare to garrison in its flooded and nearly destroyed state.”
Hideyoshi says, “So we need peace.”
Kanbei nods. “Yes. We need peace.”
***
CRISIS: INITIAL IMMEDIATE ACTION
There are two dangers in an unexpected crisis –
The first is that you can hastily, miss a key detail, and lead yourself downward into an unacceptably bad outcome.
The second is that you move too slowly, get overtaken by the matter at hand, and reach an unacceptably bad outcome due to failure to act.
These are, obviously, at tension.
The first step in a crisis is immediate security, risk-mitigating, and assessment of the situation.
Hideyoshi Toyotomi and Kuroda Kanbei acted immediately on hearing the news of Nobunaga’s death – placing as many sentries and patrols as possible. Likewise, Hideyoshi saw a risk of the news spreading out and demoralizing his besieging forces – thus, he limited knowledge of the news to only his inner circle, and ensured likewise that they converted malaise and stupor into grim determination.
At the same time, Hideyoshi and Kanbei moved to assess the landscape – sending out reconnaissance to survey the area, and debating and thinking internally on what signs would trigger that the Mori Clan had heard the terrible news and could act on it.
They acted promptly on these matters, with haste and immediacy, barely catching the infiltrators in time with their haste.
***
WAR COUNSEL
They’d sent for the Mori peace envoy immediately after realizing they needed peace, asking him to arrive in the morning. Then, they debated deep into the night on how to make a hasty peace.
Hideyoshi summed up the views of everyone here –
“As I understand it, no peace will be possible once the Mori hear the news. They will become implacable. Likewise, it will seem strange that we want to make peace suddenly, and will put them on guard, and they might stall. And if we do not make formal peace with them, they will likely pursue and harry us all the way back.”
But then Hideyoshi cheered up, took on his usual lighthearted tone –
“So how do we make the Mori want peace, then?”
The group broke into spirited discussion. At first, there were some saying that the Mori would not want peace no matter what now that the Oda forces were leaderless, but Kanbei corrected that line of thinking –
“Of course not. But once they know Nobunaga is dead, they won’t make peace under any circumstances. So we should act…”
“…strong and belligerent?” Hideyoshi finished his sentence again.
Hachisuka Hikoemon had been being quiet, but spoke up now: “If we’re too belligerent, they’ll tear up the treaty right away and come right after us when they hear the news.”
Hideyoshi nods.
“True. So the question is, how do we make the Mori want peace now, and want to keep the peace after they hear the news?”
Kanbei’s eyes light up –
“I think I’ve got it.”
As he explains his plans, the mood relaxes quite a bit.
Hideyoshi looks around, “Are we all agreed then? It’s a risky course, but all courses are risky.”
***
THE PEACE CONFERENCE
When the Mori envoy arrived, he was treated courteously – but couldn’t help but notice the whirlwind of action around the camp. The Toyotomi stoves burned hot, cooking battle rations. Horses were being prepared, temporary fortifications were being torn down, and the Toyotomi forces were mobilizing.
Hikoemon had been negotiating with the Mori, but quickly reaching the same impasse that the Mori and Toyotomi had been at in all paste negotiations.
Hikoemon stands up to excuse himself, says,
“Lord Toyotomi said he’d like to speak with you personally. Please wait here.”
“What, Hideyoshi himself is coming?”
Hikoemon nods. “Well, you know how much he prides himself on being a man of mercy. He thinks it would be terrible if you left and he didn’t at least take the final opportunity to avert the bloodshed.”
The envoy was shaken – as was intended – but he composed himself before Hideyoshi arrived with some cakes and sake, Japanese rice alcohol.
Hideyoshi speaks first,
“Well, I don’t see how peace is going to be made. Your General Muneharu and Lord Mori Terumoto are determined to fight until the end. It’s a tragedy that so many men should die here, but so it goes, eh? Let’s have some cake and sake, and drink to the bravery of the men on both sides who are about to die.”
Hideyoshi pours a couple glasses, and then drinks one in a single gulp.
The envoy sits there, stunned.
Hideyoshi shivers and says, “Oh my, I’m not much of a drinker.”
The envoy snaps out of it: “You’re attacking? Now? Why?”
Hideyoshi shrugs.
“Nobunaga’s orders. I told him Takamatsu Castle would fold soon from the siege, but he has 100,000 men on the march here and ordered that Takamatsu must fall before he arrives. And…” Hideyoshi shrugs again, “Well, I’m obedient. So there’s nothing left to do besides eat some cake.”
“Nobunaga will lead the assault himself into the Mori lands? Not you, Lord Toyotomi?”
Hideyoshi shrugs. “I just do what I’m told.”
The envoy shudders.
“We’re so very close to peace… can we not discuss the terms again?”
Hideyoshi replies, “Hikoemon is far cleverer than me, I’m a dumb war horse. Did you know they used to call me ‘monkey’ when I was a servant of the Oda clan?” Hideyoshi chuckles, “They don’t call me monkey any more, not to my face at least. But I will simply follow Nobunaga’s orders. And he said there can be no peace without Takamatsu Castle defeated.”
Hideyoshi let the word hang in the air.
The envoy asked for permission to depart, and rode hard for the Mori headquarters, and was not long gone when he came riding hard back to the Toyotomi camp and asked for permission to communicate with General Muneharu in the besieged castle.
***
A FRAMEWORK FOR NAVIGATING CRISIS
After immediate security, de-risking, and assessing the landscape, you have to choose your moves in a crisis.
I have found the following framework to be incredibly valuable in high-stakes situations; it has both a lot of simplicity and a lot of power. I have used it primarily in negotiations, where it is very useful, but it’s generally applicable to many sorts of crises.
Separate your objectives into,
MUST
WANT
NICE
>
Must: Any term you mark a ‘must’ needs to happen or no deal. You literally won’t discuss or budge on a single ‘must.’
Want: These are the terms you haggle over and trade off. Whereas every Must needs to happen or no deal, your Wants are more flexible. You still, well, want most of them. But they’re not strictly necessary.
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