by Noah Beck
The Prime Minister certainly would have understood such a decision. In any case, it was now indubitably clear to him that the Dolphin really had no reason ever again to contact Gabriel Cohen. Thus, trying to reach Gabriel from his hospital bed through his chief of staff, in order to deliver an attack order to the submarine’s captain, which order would never actually reach the captain, just seemed like an exercise in humiliating futility. “Why underscore our pathetic state?” he thought to himself.
“Sir? Are you still there?”
“Yes. Just thinking. Never mind. I need to rest.” He hung up the phone.
The Prime Minister reflected with dark irony on how the “last Israelis” were, at the time of the attack on Israel, all located in and saved by German-made structures: he, his family, and his aides in the German hospital, and the crew of the Dolphin in the German-made submarine. This thought then caused bits of his dream to return suddenly. He turned to his wife to share his confused recollection.
“I…I was dreaming that…I was holding a key…” He said, trying to manage his mixed-up thoughts and reconstruct the details of his nightmare.
“Wait, honey. Look at this,” his wife said, pointing to the TV. As he moved his eyes to the television screen by his hospital bed, the Israeli Prime Minister realized that the real nightmare was that he was no longer dreaming.
A breaking news alert interrupted the BBC program that had been running: “This just in. We have reports that Iran has sustained attacks by nuclear missiles in about ten different locations throughout the country. Judging from its intensity, each blast appears to have been caused by a 200-kiloton nuclear explosion, which is about 13 times the destructive power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Initial reports indicate that the targets hit were all key sites comprising Iran’s nuclear program. We can also confirm that Iran’s capital city of Tehran has also been hit with a nuclear detonation. We will bring you more information about this dramatic development as it comes in.”
The Prime Minister was still bewildered by everything, but gradually began to piece together all of the information.
He finally turned back toward his wife. Her eyes were still glued to the TV, totally transfixed by the dramatic news report. She eventually looked at her husband and saw that he wanted to say something.
“Yes, honey? What is it?”
“The last Israelis did not go quietly.”
THE END
Epilogue: The Diplomatic Cable
Dear Mr. President:
I just awoke from a nightmare about the day after Iran acquires nuclear weapons. Waking up didn’t help much: the Mossad chief just informed me that Israel has only a week left to decide whether it will act alone to stop the Iranian nuclear threat. As you know, a military strike by my country will be far messier and less effective than a strike carried out by the most powerful military on earth.
Only a truly credible threat of overwhelming force against Iran will prevent a potential doomsday scenario from becoming reality, and only the United States can deliver such a threat. Paradoxically, if Iran truly believes that the U.S. is about to launch a massive attack, it will back down and no force will be needed at all. If, on the other hand, Iran has doubts about American resolve, it will not only continue to develop an independent nuclear capability, but it may also take a “short-cut” route to immunity by purchasing nuclear weapons from Pakistan. Such an acquisition would make it impossible even for the U.S. to stop Iran from becoming yet another nuclear proliferator. The Iranian regime must understand that it will face devastating consequences if it attempts – by any means – to acquire nuclear weapons.
The threat of force should be used to achieve something far more effective than the illusory arrangement settled on with North Korea in 1994. The goal with Iran must be a Libya-style total disarmament, removing equipment and material from Iran’s nuclear weapons program, with independent verification by the IAEA.
A verified and total disarmament is the only way to eliminate the many perils of a nuclear Iran. These dangers include: (i) nuclear proliferation because other countries in this volatile and commerce-critical area will feel the need to develop their own nuclear programs in response to the Iranian nuclear threat, (ii) the risk of nuclear materials being passed from Iran – the world’s chief sponsor of terrorism – to terrorist organizations and/or states, (iii) bolder attacks by terrorist groups protected by an Iranian nuclear umbrella, and (iv) an even more aggressive Iran that flexes its nuclear arsenal to: export its radical Islamic ideology, acquire disputed territories and resources from neighboring countries, and/or undertake actions like blocking the Strait of Hormuz to increase the price of oil.
As you know, Iran violently quelled the democratic movement in its own country in 2009 and has actively supported the Syrian regime in its brutal crackdown on protesters and in the subsequent civil war. The Islamic Republic directly and through its proxies threatens stability in Lebanon, Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Iraq, and the Gulf area. Iran is also responsible for countless deaths of American and coalition troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In short, as clear as it is today that a nuclear weapon in the hands of the Third Reich would have spelled catastrophe, so should it be clear with the Iranian theocracy. Allowing Iran to acquire or develop nuclear weapons could lead to horrific destruction on an unthinkable scale. Even reformers with the best of intentions and most reassuring words will need time to change the governing system and political culture in Iran, and the world must be patient and skeptical before concluding that Iran has changed so dramatically for the better that it can be trusted with the world’s most dangerous weapons.
In the interest of fairness and to show good faith to Iran, the threat of overwhelming military force for non-compliance should be complemented by generous rewards for Iranian cooperation. In exchange for the verifiable dismantling of Iran’s entire nuclear program, the U.S. can offer to compensate Iran financially for related losses and provide a variety of other economic and political benefits that are collectively far more advantageous to Iran than a nuclear weapon would be. These benefits could include, for example, (i) replacing all economic sanctions with European Union and U.S. free trade agreements, (ii) providing a written security guarantee – adopted by the UN Security Council, if needed – that neither the U.S. nor any of its Middle Eastern allies (including Israel) will initiate an attack on Iran. If the Iranian regime truly has peaceful intentions, then it should readily accept such an attractive bargain. But if Iran rejects this offer, then its regime is clearly on a nuclear warpath that must be stopped by the only world power that can do so swiftly and decisively, and without producing a nuclear war that consumes the entire region and leaves many millions dead.
We in Israel cannot allow a hostile state that regularly threatens our existence to acquire the means to annihilate us any day that it chooses. We don’t have the luxury of ignoring this threat, and unfortunately, we are now out of time for other solutions to work. Accordingly, I am preparing a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities sometime in the next three to seven days. If, in the next 24 hours, you provide me with a written reassurance that the United States will give Iran a firm ultimatum, backed by overwhelming force, requiring the complete and verified dismantling of their nuclear program starting within 48 hours, then I will cancel the strike.
Mr. President, every day the circumstances move us closer to doomsday, and you are the only person with the power to prevent it. Please use that power for good. Our world depends on it, and history is watching.
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