by Ian Fletcher
793 They are constantly alert to threats against their trading position: China, for example, was recently reported in China Daily as increasing export rebates on 3,800 items “to maintain growth.” See “China Raises Export Rebate to Spur Growth,” China Daily, March 28, 2009.
794 See p. 74.
795 In other words, it is plausible to expect an approximate Nash Equilibrium to emerge, though of course some turbulence would occur.
796 See p. 177 for the original discussion of VAT.
797 Lori Montgomery, “Value-Added Tax, Once Taboo, is Getting Attention in Washington,” Los Angeles Times, May 28, 2009.
798 Victor Selden Clark, History of Manufactures in the United States: 1607-1860 (Washington: Carnegie Institution, 1916), p. 288.
799 See p. 176.
800 This analysis was originally published in modified form in as, “Things Fall Apart: the Coming End of the Free Trade Coalition,” The American Conservative, September 2004.
801 2009: 91%, to be exact. “Employment Situation Summary,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 7, 2009. 1950: Ronald E. Kutscher, “The American Work Force, 1992-2005: Historical Trends, 1950-92, and Current Uncertainties,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1993, p. 6.
802 This section is adapted from the article, “Things Fall Apart,” originally published in The American Conservative, September 27, 2004.
803 Kevin Phillips, Arrogant Capital (New York: Little, Brown & Co, 1995), p. 89.
804 In technical terms, there is no theorem guaranteeing that partial-equilibrium losses to import-competing producers are more than offset by their gains as consumers due to reduced prices. See Chapters 1 and 5.
805 See p. 166.
806 Michael Lind gave an interesting description of what such a position might look like in The Next American Nation (New York: Free Press, 1995).
807 “Republican party Platform of 1972,” The American Presidency Project, University of California at Santa Barbara, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=25842.
808 Free traders will, of course, respond that none of them actually believe in literal 100% free trade. The reader may judge whether the various kinds of 99% free trade they believe in are significantly different.
809 Sherrod Brown, Myths of Free Trade: Why American Trade Policy Has Failed (New York: The New Press, 2004), p. 11.
810 Peronet Despeignes, “Poll: Enthusiasm for Free Trade Fades Dip Sharpest for $100K Set; Loss of Jobs Cited,” U.S.A Today, February 24, 2004.
811 “NBC/Wall Street Journal GOP Primary Voters Survey,” Hart/Newhouse, September 2007, p. 5.
812 “Support for Free Trade Recovers Despite Recession,” Pew Center for the People and the Press, April 28, 2009, http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/511.pdf.
813 Scott Keeter and Richard Morin, “The Complicated Politics of Free Trade,” Pew Center for the People and the Press, January 4, 2007.
814 Ana Maria Arumi and Scott Bittle, “Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index,” Public Agenda, Winter 2006, p. 17.
815 Ibid., p. 11.
816 “Excerpts From An Interview With John Kerry,” The Wall Street Journal, May 3, 2004.
817 “Debate Transcript: The Third Bush–Kerry Presidential Debate,” Commission on Presidential Debates, 13 October 2004.
818 Ibid.
819 Ibid.
820 Ibid.
821 Bush won by 286 electoral votes to 251; Kerry lost Ohio, which has 20.
822 “Ohio Voters Don’t Trust Democrats on Economic Issues,” Manufacturing & Technology News, March 14, 2008, p. 1.
823 Thomas Frank, What’s The Matter With Kansas? (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2004).
824 John Nichols, “A Congressman’s Defeat Spells Trouble for Business Democrats,” The Nation, May 10, 2002.
825 Ibid.
826 Todd Tucker, “Election 2006: No to Staying the Course on Trade,” Public Citizen, November 8, 2006, p. 4., http://www.citizen.org/documents/Election2006.pdf.
827 Chris Slevin and Todd Tucker, “The Fair Trade Sweep,” The Democratic Strategist, January 7, 2007.
828 Ibid.
829 Greta Wodele, “Fitzpatrick Touts Record, Murphy National Issues In Debate,” Congress Daily PM, October 26, 2006.
830 Jeremy Wallace, “Democrats Say Venus Man Can Beat Foley,” Sarasota Herald-Tribune, December 12, 2005.
831 Todd Tucker, “Election 2006: No to Staying the Course on Trade,” Public Citizen, November 8, 2006, p. 18, http://www.citizen.org/documents/Election2006.pdf.
832 Chris Slevin and Todd Tucker, “The Fair Trade Sweep,” The Democratic Strategist, January 7, 2007, p. 6.
833 Ibid., p. 5.
834 Ibid., p. 5.
835 Stuart Rothenberg, “Rothenberg’s Ten Most Endangered House Incumbents,” The Rothenberg Report, February 21, 2006.
836 “2008 Presidential Candidate Questionnaire,” Ohio Conference on Fair Trade, http://www.citizen.org/
documents/OhioCFTQuestionnaireObama.pdf.
837 “NAFTA Takes Center Stage in Ohio Primary Battle,” The Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2008.
838 Susan Davis and Nick Timiraos, “Washington Wire,” The Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2008.
839 “The Democratic Debate in Cleveland,” The New York Times, February 26, 2008.
840 “Report on U.S. Elections–CHCGO Meeting with Obama Advisor Austan Goolsbee,” memorandum, Consulate General of Canada, Chicago, February 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/images/promos/politics/blog/20070303canmemo.pdf.
841 “Obama Staffer Gave Warning of NAFTA Rhetoric,” CTV, February 27, 2008, http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080227/dems_nafta_080227/20080227.
842 Robert Scott, “Pennsylvania Stagnation: Is NAFTA the Culprit?” The New York Times, April 15, 2008.
843 Real Clear Politics, “Pennsylvania Democratic Primary,” http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html.
844 Nina Easton, “Obama: NAFTA Not So Bad After All,” Fortune, June 18, 2008.
845 John McCain, speech to National Association of Latino Appointed and Elected Officials, June 28, 2008.
846 Barack Obama, “Renewing American Competitiveness,” speech in Flint, MI, June 16, 2008.
847 See pp. 20-26.
848 See pp. 59-63.
849 Paul Cohn, “Dems Ads In Tight Races Tap Into Anti-Trade Sentiment,” Congress Daily, Wednesday, October 29, 2008.
850 Figure derived by combining the number of trade ads run by individual candidates and those run by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in the general election cycle. “Election 2008: Fair Trade Gets an Upgrade,” Global Trade Watch, November 5, 2008, pp. 4-5.
851 “Election 2008: Fair Trade Gets an Upgrade,” Global Trade Watch, November 5, 2008, p. 2.
852 Ibid.
853 Ibid., p. 3.
854 Ibid., p. 5.
855 Ron Kirk, “Trade and the Economic Agenda: Serving America’s Families and the Global Recovery,” speech at Georgetown University Law Center, April 23, 2009.
856 “Becerra Says He’s Not Interested in U.S. Trade Rep Job,” Time, December 17, 2008.
857 Prof. Laura D’Andrea Tyson, University of California at Berkeley, has done great work as a theorist of protectionism, but has retreated from this position in her public statements in recent years.
858 Doug Palmer, “No Need to Renegotiate NAFTA to Improve It–U.S.TR,” Reuters, April 20, 2009.
859 David Sanger, “Senate Agrees to Dilute ‘Buy American’ Provisions,” The New York Times, February 4, 2009.
860 “Mexican Truck Program Revival Clears First Hurdles,” Today’s Trucking, July 28, 2009.
861 John M. Broder, “Obama Opposes Trade Sanctions in Climate Bill,” The New York Times, June 28, 2009.
862 Bernd Janzen, “Waxman-Markey Bill Border Adjustment Measures Face Revision as Senate Takes Up Climate Bill Deliberations,” ClimateIntel, July 31, 2009.
863 Ian Talley and Tom Barkley, “Energy Chief Says U.S. Is Open to Carbon Tariff,” The Wall Street Journal, March 18, 2009.
864 Fiona Harvey, “WTO Signals Backing for Border Taxes,” Financial Times, June 26, 2009.
865 Alan Tonelson, “Obama’s Tire Tariff Decision: False Promise From a Free-Trade Administration,” American Economic Alert, September 18, 2009.
866 Peter Morici, “Trade Deficit Threatens a Double-Dip Recession, Economic Armageddon,” Online Journal, November 13, 2009, http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_5260.shtml.
867 Senator Richard Shelby, NBC Meet the Press, Nov 16, 2008.
868 As of this writing, the ultimate outcome of the global warming controversy remains to be seen.
869 Paul Krugman, blog entry of June 26, 2009, http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/26/the-wto-is-making-sense/.
870 This could have significant protectionist effects given that China’s carbon emissions per unit of GDP are roughly eight times those of the U.S. According to Jeff Rubin of CIBC, “With OECD’s carbon tolerance diminishing with every tonne of CO2 spread into the atmosphere by non-OECD countries, environmentalism will soon become a significant barrier to trade. A carbon tariff imposed by the U.S. on emissions embodied in Chinese exports would not only abolish the implicit subsidies on the carbon content currently enjoyed by Chinese exports, but it would be large enough to start reversing current trade and off-shoring patterns.” See http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/smar08.pdf.
871 This section is based on Robertson Morrow, “The Bull Market in Politics,” Clarium Capital Management, February 2008, p. 14.
872 Trade polls 1992-2008: “Polls on NAFTA and Free Trade,” American Enterprise Institute, June 26, 2008, p. 3, http://www.aei.org/docLib/20031203_nafta2.pdf. Immigration Polls: Tim Bolin, “Public Opinion on Immigration in America,” Mirage Foundation for the American Dream, p. 8, http://www.meragefoundations.com/MFAD%20Occasional%20Papers/Immigration%20Occasional%20Paper.Final.10.27.05.pdf.
873 The final CAFTA vote in the House had almost every Democrat against and almost every Republican in favor. In the Senate, 78 percent of Republicans were in favor while 76 percent of Democrats were op-posed. On amnesty, the Senate vote was 12 Republicans and 34 Democrats in favor, 37 Republicans and 15 Democrats against. (There was no House vote on this bill or an equivalent.) See Robertson Morrow, “The Bull Market in Politics,” Clarium Capital Management, February 2008, p. 15.
874 Robertson Morrow, “The Bull Market in Politics,” Clarium Capital Management, February 2008, p. 16.
875 See p. 144.
