by Ezra E Manes
“I agree that the probe is probable not capable of achieving faster-than-light velocity,” Eve said. “Considering the physics involved and the probe’s velocity being a small fraction of the speed of light, it was probably launched from a platform traveling much slower than the speed of light.”
This interchange caused discussions to break out around the room. Carlos did not participate. His thoughts had turned inward, reflecting on the major events over the previous century that had brought humanity to this juncture.
“I wonder,” he finally mused aloud, “what stimulated the aliens to send their probe to arrive here at this time?”
The room became quiet as all eyes turned to look at Prophet Sepeda. Carlos did not speak again immediately and at first did not notice the change in the room. His eyes finally focused back on reality, and he was surprised to see everyone looking at him.
“Consider these thoughts,” he said reflectively. “What if you were at some great distance from both Earth and Zilia and had been observing their civilizations for centuries. Earth moved into and out of one internal war after another, but advanced from an impoverished civilization to one making giant strides technologically, including space travel.
“Zilia, on the other hand, had achieved an advanced, peaceful civilization over several millennia, and was undergoing little change. Which civilization would you look at as a potential future threat?”
“Earth’s, of course,” George said.
“Logically, they would have sent probes long ago to the vicinity of Earth,” Carlos continued. “One would assume these probes had advanced communications capabilities. The probes would detect Earth launching expeditions to other solar systems. The short time frame between detection of Earth’s first electronic emissions and setting out to explore other solar systems must have alarmed the extraterrestrials. The success of the Messier expedition would further disturb them. I suspect they sent probes toward the Nepali A system as soon as possible after determining the probable success of the Messier Colony.
“Which brings me to the probe entering our system. If you expected the nearby Messier Colony to survive, you would also send probes to monitor the Arzét system in the event the colony sent a mission on to Zilia, or so I would think.
“They might even have sent probes toward Nepali A when the Messier expedition was launched from Earth, although I think this is unlikely. They could monitor status by monitoring Earth, and save their probes. So I doubt they would launch probes toward Zilia until the Messier expedition started to colonize the planet Hope.”
The room was quiet as the implications of what Carlos said sank in. Eve broke the silence, putting Carlos’s statement into chronological perspective.
“If they sent the probe when the decision to colonize Hope was made in the Earth year 2177, it took forty-eight Earth years to get here, this being the Earth year 2225. Assuming the probe achieved an average velocity of even fifty percent that of light, its point of origin would be approximately twenty-four light-years from this solar system. If its average velocity was lower, it was launched from a point closer to our system.”
“Considering the importance of what is unfolding in space around our three local stars,” George injected, “I would expect them to send more than one probe here, probably at least three spaced a year or more apart. I believe this is the first probe. Our extensive observation of space around Zilia has not revealed any other such vessels.”
“I agree,” Carlos replied. “The major concerns I see for Zilia are as follows, in priority order. First, what, if anything, should we or could we do about the approaching probe? Second, what perceived threat do these extraterrestrials pose? Third, how far away are they, and how soon could they arrive? And fourth, what should we do in anticipation of future contact?”
Ceripe and her staff had been relatively quiet during the discussion. The appearance of the alien probe had been much more of a shock to the Zilans than to the Messier team.
Now Starke Pelanah addressed Carlos. “We cannot come up with reasonable answers to your second and third concerns from the data we have. So we must assume the extraterrestrials could be here anytime with the probability that they will arrive increasing as time passes. We must also assume they will want more than just to talk to us, so we must prepare as if they are an imminent threat. This means that whatever we do to address the future contact concern must begin soon.”
Starke paused and glanced over at George. “George and I have discussed how our high-energy electromagnetic beam focusing systems could be used to destroy space debris. If necessary, I believe we have the ability to destroy the probe if it comes close enough to our planet or if we could position the transmitter to intercept the probe in space.”
This was disquieting to Carlos. Starke was talking about technology the Zilans had previously considered only for industrial purposes. The encroachment of extraterrestrials, those of Earth origin and now others, was certainly causing dramatic changes in the Zilan thought processes. Recognizing the reality of what they faced was essential for survival.
Ceripe must have been similarly concerned. “Why must we try to destroy the probe?” she said. “Do we really know if it has an evil intent? Perhaps we should attempt to communicate with the extraterrestrials first to determine their purpose for sending a probe here.”
A general discussion evolved in which about half the group wanted to communicate with the extraterrestrials and half wanted to destroy the probe. Carlos listened quietly to arguments until they started to heat up somewhat.
“What would send the strongest message to these extraterrestrials?” he finally injected, which brought all discussion to a halt. “That is what everyone wants, although the approach favored may differ.” He paused to see if anyone wanted to comment. No one did. “If we show we know the probe has entered our system and demonstrate the capability to communicate with it, we send a strong message about our technical ability. The earlier we communicate, the stronger the message, as it will show we detected the probe while still far out in our solar system. It would likely be very surprising for them to see such advanced capability on Zilia and would send a cautionary message about encroaching here uninvited.
“Or we could destroy the probe at the earliest time possible, which would again send a strong message about our capabilities and our concern about a probe being sent here.”
He paused, then added, “A third option, which I like best, would be to try communicating, and if this is not successful, then consider destroying the probe.”
There was unanimous agreement on the third option, but then the question was how to communicate with an alien probe. They could assume the extraterrestrials understood the Zilan language and would understand the encoding schemes used in satellite communications.
“I suggest our high-energy focused-beam technology be adapted to make a communications transmitter,” George said. “The beam generating equipment already exists and was used to accurately determine the distance to Zilia’s two moons. It would be straightforward to encode messages into a high-energy beam, and the tightly focused beam would ensure maximum energy would impinge on the probe’s sensors.”
Carlos liked this recommendation, as did the others. The use of this technology would itself send a message to the extraterrestrials about how advanced the Zilans were. Carlos was also pleased to hear George referring to the Zilan technology as “ours”.
The discussion turned to defining details of the plan, including the content of the message they would send. It was decided the more succinct the message, the better. The first message would simply request a dialogue between the two civilizations and that an explanation be provided as to why the probe had been sent into the Arzét solar system.
Carlos and Ceripe left the group as they were completing the plan and went to brief Pteleg Bnethem to get approval to attempt communicating with the probe. If they could not successfully establish communications, they would destroy the probe once it came close enough to Z
ilia. The leader agreed and was pleased to hear that the integrated team was working so effectively.
They had to work fast, given that there were only nineteen days before the probe entered its braking orbit around Arzét. Eve was a tremendous help, for she could link into the high-energy beam system and control it to track the inbound probe. It was necessary to point and track the transmitted beam far ahead of the probe so the beam would have time to reach and intersect the probe in its high velocity track. A miniscule error in pointing and tracking would result in a miss.
It took six days to get the beam transmitter set up and tracking the probe, which was phenomenally quick. They transmitted a modulated beam and also transmitted intermittently in a controlled manner, providing two coding schemes for the desired message. The probe should detect and decode one or both of the beam encoding schemes.
Three days later Eve contacted Carlos while he was working alone at the institute.
“Carlos, the probe has adjusted its trajectory slightly, and if my calculations are correct, it will plunge directly into Arzét.”
The high-energy beam system had continued sending a repeating message when Zilerip was on the side of Zilia facing the probe’s position. Until now there had been no indication the probe had sensed the beamed signal.
“That is the last thing I would expect it to do,” Carlos said, bemused by the probe’s reaction. “Why would it want to destroy itself?”
“The extraterrestrials may not want to communicate with us or to risk our accessing their advanced probe technology,” replied Eve. “We are using sophisticated communications techniques, and they may assume we can capture their probe.”
“Or we might have damaged the probe with our high-energy beam,” Carlos said.
“That is unlikely. Considering the distance to the probe and the spreading of the beam, it could do little damage to a space-hardened probe.”
“That means your first observation makes sense,” he mused.
“Or there is some other force at work,” Eve said. “I must reassess all the data.”
“What do you mean some other force?” Carlos asked, but Eve had already shifted her focus to assessing data and did not respond.
They tracked the probe all the way to its entry into the corona of Arzét. Continued attempts to communicate with the probe before its fiery demise failed to get any response.
Carlos was sure the probe had detected their transmitted beam, and this had likely led to the probe’s self-guided destruction. They could only speculate as to whether its destruction was a local decision or one made at some distance by the extraterrestrials. It pointed to what Eve had said: the extraterrestrials did not want to communicate or see their technology compromised.
“I still believe there will be one or two more probes arriving soon,” George said to the group discussing the incident. “So what do we do about the next one?”
“I suggest we wait and see if it adjusts to enter a braking orbit around Arzét before we try communicating with it,” replied Starke. “Then perhaps it will be unable to redirect itself into the star after we focus our communications beam on it.”
“I doubt we will have that chance,” Eve said. “Any additional probes will probably be redirected to skim through the outer reaches of our solar system to pick up as much information as possible before passing on into space beyond. That would keep the probes out of our reach.”
“What should we do to prepare for future contact with other civilizations?” Carlos injected strongly, redirecting the meeting focus. “I agree with what Starke said in our previous meeting. The extraterrestrials could be here any time, and we must prepare for that eventuality. This must include developing advanced space travel and communications capabilities as soon as possible.”
A month later Carlos sat alone in his small office at home, turning over and over in his hand the small data cube given to him when he was eleven years old by Uncle Joe. The team had identified research and development required to establish the underpinnings of an aggressive space program, including developing a hyperspace communications capability. They also discussed beginning weapon systems research, as hard as this was for all to accept. Carlos and Ceripe had sold the essence of the long-range plan to the leadership of Zilia.
He had a strong feeling of déjà vu as he looked at the cube. His great-grandfather and other leaders on Earth had faced the same challenges presented by discovery of the extraterrestrials a century before. They first detected electromagnetic emissions coming from a region of space near the southern edge of the constellation Sagittarius in 2131. That discovery led him to where he was today, facing the same challenge but without close support from Earth or the Messier Colony. He could appreciate the emotions that must have run high on Earth when discussing what to do.
The data cube contained the holographic video of his great-grandfather, Geraldo Horacio Sepeda, giving his speech to the United Nations Executive Council that set the course of action on Earth to address the extraterrestrial discovery. Carlos had not watched the holograph since departing the Messier Colony. In the speech, President Sepeda, then leader of the North America Union, summarized implications of the discovery, in particular as coupled with the deteriorating conditions on Earth.
The holovideo began with the end of a presentation by a distinguished scientist addressing the Executive Council regarding the intercepted signals. Carlos’s great-grandfather was sitting with the other council members. There was a striking resemblance to his grandson, Carlos’s father.
“In summary,” the female scientist said, “we face a daunting task at playing catch-up if we ever hope to stand on par with this extraterrestrial civilization in the foreseeable future. In the game of catch-up, one seldom wins. We must take a giant technological stride forward.”
Carlos could certainly relate to that assessment. After she finished, an intense discussion began among the UNEC members. Earth was in a very stark position. Attempts to explore and colonize the solar system had reached a shaky plateau difficult to maintain, and it was not a very advanced plateau considering what they had just learned. Earth was also having great difficulty controlling population size to the level necessary to ensure stability and survival by slowing depletion of natural resources. Life in facilities off Earth was harsh, and the voluntary exodus to off-world colonies hoped for to relieve the pressure on Earth had not occurred. Now Earth faced the distinct possibility that extraterrestrials would soon appear with yet-unknown intentions.
A pivotal question quickly surfaced: How would the human race fare if suddenly faced with such advanced extraterrestrials encroaching into the solar system? Observations, opinions and questions ran rampant as the video played. It was obvious Earth could not stand on par with an encroaching race with Earth’s technology where it was then.
If this more advanced race had known about Earth for centuries, why had they not attempted to contact Earth? As the last presenter pointed out, perhaps they had, but no one had detected the attempt. Or more than likely, the extraterrestrials did not want to alert Earth to their existence, but rather to continue to advance technologically and move outward in space to establish a dominant position before confronting another civilization such as on Earth.
The UNEC discussion came back to the worry that this race might occupy planetary systems relatively close to the human occupied solar system. This would constrain future colonization from Earth. Considering the large number of habitable planetary systems likely in the galaxy, this would not occur unless the extraterrestrials wanted to deflect Earth’s extrasolar colonization efforts away from their expanding civilization. On the other hand, their objective could be to constrain Earth’s inhabitants to their own solar system.
Carlos’s great-grandfather maintained a relatively passive role in the discussions, electing to listen to his colleagues discuss the issues and questions and provide their opinions about what should be done. It was clear he had taken considerable notes, and he finally interrupted the discu
ssion and asked if he could address the committee.
At this point Carlos felt hands touch his shoulders softly. He stopped the projection and looked up to see Gloria and Ceripe standing behind him, one on each side of his chair.
“We are concerned about you,” Gloria said. “You have been so serious and stressed lately, and for good cause, we know.”
“But you do not have to carry the total weight of this new challenge on your shoulders,” added Ceripe. “Our strong team will collectively shoulder the responsibility.”
“I know,” he said with a gentle smile. “But you two and I recognize the responsibility that comes with being Prophet Sepeda. Right now, I do feel the weight of Zilia on my shoulders. Please join me; this could be very informative.”
He provided Ceripe background on his great-grandfather and what the speech was all about before restarting the holograph. Even though he had seen the video before, it was still strange to see the powerful group of leaders defer to his great-grandfather so readily. The council members listened intently as he began.
“Perhaps we should look both at what we know and what we don’t know for some guidance,” President Sepeda said imploringly, “and see if this will point to a plan of action.” The other UNEC members smiled among themselves. It appeared they had heard this introduction many times in the past.
President Sepeda then summarized their situation. The extraterrestrials were likely two centuries ahead technologically when they had originated the signals. The signals gave no indication that the aliens were actively attempting to contact Earth. Nor was there any evidence of contact attempts in signals recorded previously. In spite of this, it was almost certain they had been aware of the people of Earth for some time.
It was clear the extraterrestrials had advanced hyperspace communications and probably faster-than-light-speed space travel, the latter of which Earth had yet to develop. This implied they could already be in Earth’s region of space if they so desired.
