****** The Minister
Almost the entire cabinet and a number of senior officers were once again assembled in the situation room to watch the unfolding drama on the satellite monitors. According to the clocks on the wall it was just after four in the morning in cloudy Islamabad and two in the morning in Somalia.
“Everything looks good, minister. Islamabad radar picked us up forty minutes ago as we came out of China. A couple of minutes ago they started trying to contact us to tell us to switch over from approach control to the tower. We’re just starting to give them static and garble as if the plane’s radios are out… Here, I’ll rewind the recording and put it on the speaker.”
“Islamabad Tower to unidentified plane approaching pattern twenty kilometers northwest. You are breaking up. Please repeat.”
“Isla… crackle… landing…click …inese…”
“Islamabad barometer is thirty point two. Wind from west at six knots. No traffic in pattern. Straight in approved. Cleared to land Runway Three.” Good. They’re used to handling old planes with bad equipment.
Project Twenty-two’s remote control pilot responded with two clicks of his microphone button—a pilot’s standard response to acknowledge an order without speaking.
Four minutes later as the Project Twenty-two plane descended towards the Islamabad airport the pilots in the remote control van suddenly poured on the power and the DC-6 seemed to swoop up in a missed approach. We watched the electronic map on the big wall screen in fascination as the red dots of its track passed to the south of the airport and headed straight for Kahuta about twenty kilometers to the southwest of Islamabad.
Kahuta used to be famous as the place where many Pakistani military officers retired to live after they completed their military service. Today it is the home of the Khan Research Laboratories and the Kahuta Nuclear Reactor.
For about a minute the infrared camera in Project Twenty-two’s nose transmitted the rapidly closing heat outlines of a number of buildings in front of its flight path. But then the focus got tighter and tighter until only the outline of one building remained on the screen.
“Wait for it. Wait for it. Here it comes … Yes!”
At that instant the monitor showing what the plane’s nose camera sees changed to white snow. There was a moment of silence followed by some muted clapping and cheers as many of the technicians stood up and anxiously waited for the screen to clear. Seconds later the color monitor showing the satellite’s infrared image of the Kahuta Reactor building bloomed into white snow and there were more cheers. Many of the technicians shook hands and patted each other on the back. Our distinguished visitors nodded grimly to each other, shook the director’s hand, and filed out.
“Do we know which way the wind is blowing this morning up there?” The Prime Minister inquired as he went out the door.
“Uh, yes, sir. The Islamabad tower just reported mild westerly winds at five knots. That’s normal and about what we expected. If it holds up it will take any fallout away from the city. But we can’t count on it.”
Chapter Nine
****** General Christopher Roberts
I was in the living room rocking chair reading a Doctor Seuss book to my grandson when the phone call reached me after a quiet dinner at home with Dorothy and the grandkids. We are babysitting this weekend.
“Director Roberts? Sir, this is night duty officer DeShaun Daniels. We have just received the following NSA flash message. At 0410 local time, NSA recorded a large non-nuclear explosion at Kahuta, about 45 kilometers southeast of Islamabad, Pakistan. Kahuta is the home of the Khan Nuclear Research Institute and the Kahuta nuclear reactor. Both facilities are owned and operated by Pakistan’s Defense Ministry.”
“Thank you Mr. Daniels. Please keep me updated as soon as more information comes in. I particularly want you to call me if the explosion occurred at the nuclear facility. Also please call Mr. Ferrelli with this information. Please inform him I will not be coming in to the office at this time and there is no reason for him to come in.”
Ten minutes later the phone rang again.
“DeShaun Daniels again, sir. NSA has just confirmed that the explosion is at the site of the Khan Nuclear Research Institute and the Kahuta reactor.”
“What is it Chris?” Dorothy asked as she got up from the dining room table and began picking up the dirty dishes.
“Not sure, Hon. But I think I better go in to the office. I won’t call for a car. I’ll drive myself in.”
******
Pakistan is certainly different from North Korea. By the time I get to the office Peter, who lives much closer, was already there and the television sets in the conference room were all on so all the news channels could be simultaneously watched including BBC and a number of others from overseas. Both the NBC and CBS Nightly News have already broken into their regular programming to report a massive explosion has severely damaged Pakistan’s Kahuta reactor and the Khan Institute. Both networks were periodically showing pictures of the scene and CNN was doing so continuously.
“It’s a lot more than just severely damaged if the pictures we’re seeing are real,” was Peter’s laconic comment as he stirred creamer to his coffee.
“You’ve got that right. And I sure hope the reporter talking so breathlessly is standing upwind.”
“If I might make a suggestion,” Peter asked. “Maybe we ought to check in with the CIA and State to see if they’ve heard anything which might explain this.”
Two hours later we still didn’t know much more except, according to the Pakistani news media, Doctor Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear program, is safe at his home and the area south of Kahuta is being evacuated as a precaution against toxic smoke and chemicals. Both NSA and the CIA are reporting the Pakistani government believes India is involved on the premise ’who else would do such a thing?’
Pakistan’s army and air force are reported to be on high alert; India, thank goodness, is not.
The President already knew about it, he told me when I called in to report the event, because he’d been in the family quarters of the White House watching the nightly news after some kind of dinner with a bunch of congressmen.
At my suggestion, and after consulting the Secretary of State and our Ambassador in India, he called the Indian Prime Minister and suggested she call the President of Pakistan, and maybe even the Pakistani media, and try to defuse the situation by assuring them India was not involved and is willing to work with Pakistan to find out who is responsible and bring them to justice.
To everyone’s surprise, she wouldn’t agree— “it would be beneath me.” We immediately began considering the possibility that India was responsible.
Also to my surprise, our own late night news programs and talk shows were soon loaded with “environmental experts” who were apparently called in to talk to each other about the dangers of generating electricity with nuclear power plants. To a man, they confused nuclear reactors used to generate electricity with the nuclear reactors, such as the one at Kahuta, which are used to manufacture fissionable materials for nuclear bombs.
But who the hell is doing this and why?
“Peter, would you please check in with the CIA and NSA and ask what they think about the possibility India is responsible for the attacks?"
******
Events in distant Pakistan and North Korea were of little interest to the Islamic generals and politicians finalizing the structure and operational plans of the new “United Islamic Army” and its invasion of Israel. According to NSA and the CIA, high ranking representatives of the three coalition countries’ “leaders for life” worked out most of the details prior to the cease fire and intend to implement them quickly in an effort to catch the Israelis by surprise—just as the Egyptians did in ’73 while the Israelis were celebrating Yom Kippur.
And that is exactly what is happening according to the NSA intercepts. Iranian army units are already withdrawing from the front lines in Iraq and moving south towards the
ir assigned jump off positions on the border between Syria and Israel. Ominously, the CIA thinks some of the jump-off positions to which they are apparently headed will be on Syria’s borders with Jordan and Lebanon.
Developing a highly detailed plan to deploy their troops and rapidly invade Israel doesn’t mean the three dictator-led countries weren’t having problems organizing the forces of Islam. One of their biggest problems was the uncertainty introduced by the Egyptians. According to the NSA they are hesitant about throwing in with the three dictators despite what appears to be widespread enthusiasm on the streets of Cairo for another attack on Israel. And the Egyptians are right to be hesitant—they’ve already fought four wars with Israel and lost every one of them rather badly.
Jordan has already emphatically refused to join, mobilized the Bedouin of its national guard, and ordered most of them to Amman to defend the capitol. According to the NSA, the Jordanian king has asked Israel for military assistance under the terms of the long-standing “secret” agreement everyone knows about.
On the other hand, Lebanon’s “government,” if that’s what its latest collection of local warlords can be called, has been strangely quiet except for the huge demonstrations of support in the Palestinian refugee camps and in ancient city of Baalbek up by the Syrian border.
Egypt could well be the key, because of the size of its army, but it damn well better be hesitant about getting involved. This morning I spoke with General Hegazi, the Egyptian Vice President who acts as Egyptian President’s national security advisor. I explained to him, gently but in no uncertain terms, why Egypt’s joining with the Islamic Coalition to attack Israel would be a bad idea for Egypt. I mentioned several reasons why Egypt should stay on the sidelines. Not the least important of which, I told General Hegazi, is that even with Egypt in the war the new Islamic Army will almost certainly suffer a tremendous military defeat.
“Israel,” I said, "in my professional opinion, is going to tear the Coalition’s New Islamic Army to shreds and soundly defeat it even if Egypt is involved."
Another reason I suggested as to why Egypt might want to stay away from joining the Islamic Coalition is, if it does join them, the United States will almost certainly cut off the military and economic assistance we’ve been providing. For that matter, I went on to gently imply, if Egypt joins the Arabs’ attack the United States will almost certainly look the other way if Israel decides to retake the Sinai and begin operating the Suez Canal for itself as reparations.
We’ve finally got some leverage with the Egyptians since they’re no longer been able to look to the Saudis for aid ever since the price of oil tanked—and hopefully they’ve finally wised up about the strength of the Israeli military.
I also suggested, unlike ’56 and ’67 and ’73 when Israel took the canal and then gave it back in exchange for a promise of peace, the Israelis are almost certainly say “enough” and this time keep the canal as reparations and operate it even if we ask them to give it back.—which, if I have anything to say about it, we won’t.
Our conversation was both frank and friendly and General Hegazi invited me to come for an unofficial visit to talk about the situation, and the sooner the better. He said he is sure his president would appreciate such a visit and would I please come as soon as possible, preferably within the next several days.
I replied I’d love to come for a visit and would do so as soon as possible. And it’s true. The only other time I’d ever been to Egypt was last month when I stopped for all of six hours on my way home from Israel.
Perhaps this time I’ll be able to take Dorothy with me and we can take a mini-vacation to see some of the sights.
“Thank you for the invitation, Mr. Vice President. It’s a good idea and I will get back to you shortly to confirm my availability. For planning purposes, would an appointment at your office this coming Wednesday afternoon be convenient for you?”
******
Our cabinet members are uncertain in the smoke filled room. Once again, each of them is trying to decide whether or not to agree to what the army is proposing.
“The United Islamic Army is one thing,” said the general making the presentation for the Army’s position. “But we have to think beyond that to what might happen afterwards if Israel wins the war.”
“If Israel wins the war? If? Is there any doubt?” Several of the cabinet members absolutely bristled at the suggestion.
“No sir. There is no doubt. Israel will win even if Egypt and Jordan join the Coalition. But then what will happen? Sooner or later the coalition will split up and everyone will go their own way once again. It’s inevitable.”
Finally our defense minister leaned forward and interrupted.
“The sad truth is every major country in the region, including ours, is trying to develop nuclear weapons in order to dominate the others. We can’t afford to let anyone get ahead of us or we’re likely to lose everything. We have to go with the army’s plan.”
“But shouldn’t we wait until after the war is over?” someone else asked.
“We can’t,” the Defense Minister replied. “Sooner or later the Americans or British will find out and try to stop us.”
“Enough,” the nation’s leader finally barked. “Tell me where you stand.” And if it’s not with me you’ll have to go.
****** General Christopher Roberts
It’s Monday afternoon and I’m at home packing. In a few hours Dorothy and I will fly to Cairo with a brief stopover in Israel on the way there. A lot of my time for the past couple of days has been spent in National Security Council meetings and advising the President as he continued to try to head off the three Islamic countries which appear to be getting ready to attack Israel. Most of the rest of my time has been spent working with Tommy Talbot and Barry Johnson at Defense to make sure whatever equipment and munitions Israel needs will be quickly delivered. The Israelis sent us quite a shopping list.
The President’s problem is simple. Neither he nor anyone else has enough leverage to offset what appears to be the desperate desires of the Sunnis and Shiites for a face-saving excuse to end to their latest religious war. To me and everyone else, it’s understandable why they would agree to almost anything in order to end the current fighting with its incredible losses of men and material.
According to the NSA intercepts everyone involved in the current hostilities thinks their losses will be less, and what’s left of their people will forget their massive losses and not revolt, if they move quickly to fight a war against Israel, particularly if it is a quick and victorious war. The sad fact is every one of the three "presidents for life" needs his people to periodically go to war with Israel to distract them from their religious conflicts and their economic and social problems.
There is also the not inconsequential fact the Assad family hates Israel for defeating Syria’s army every time it attacks Israel and, particularly, for the Israelis blowing up their summer palace in Latika every time Syria sponsors a terrorist attack on Israel.
Despite the distractions of the war, I am continuing to follow the saga of the exploded nuclear plants as closely as possible. It seems to me that they are somehow related but, for the life of me, I don’t see how. Neither does anyone else. How can that be?
“Well, it’s not the Russians or us, Director. So who is it?” Peter asked me rhetorically. “Some of the people at the CIA think it is India, but my bet is on the Chinese. They are still smarting from their losses in the war with Russia and there aren’t many countries other than China and Russia from which planes could reach both the North Korean and Pakistani facilities. And both Pakistan and North Korea have territory China has claimed in the past. But the CIA and NSA keeps looking at China and Russia and finding nothing.”
******
The President, and thus Peter and I and our various intelligence agencies, aren’t going to be able to focus much on the nuclear attacks until the possibility of a confrontation between the Islamic Coalition and Israel is resolved. Th
e situation seems to be rapidly worsening. According to the CIA and NSA, Iranian troops and armor are moving through Syria and Iraq on their way south to Syria’s borders with Israel.
As you might expect, the Prime Minister of Israel is coming to the United States for urgent consultations and to attend an emergency meeting of the United Nations’ Security Council.
Well one thing’s for sure—no one is going to have much time to worry about the destruction of the North Korean and Pakistani nuclear plants except, perhaps, to celebrate their loss.
Israel’s prime minister will be leaving Tel Aviv tomorrow for the United States for the United Nations emergency meeting and a visit with the President—right after he and I meet at the Tel Aviv airport for a couple of hours of preliminary discussions so I can call in and prep the President for the meeting. The Prime Minister’s first stop will be in Washington to talk to the President. The next day he will go on to New York to attend the emergency session of the United Nations Security Council called for the day after tomorrow.
******
We were an hour out of Andrews Air Force Base en route to Tel Aviv when Peter called with an important warning.
“Director, the Iranian army is continuing to move south through Syria and Iraq at a much faster pace than anyone at the Pentagon expected or even thought possible. Some of its units are already beginning to approach the Golan Heights area south of Damascus. The Syrian and Iraqi armies are also moving towards Israel along with various and sundry militias.”
Then he told me something I later realized, with twenty-twenty hindsight, I didn’t pay as much attention to as I should have done.
“Also, sir, we may have received something from Naval Intelligence that might pertain to the explosions at the nuclear sites. The day of the attack on the Kahuta reactor the Nimitz reported a low flying four engine plane, an old DC-6, heading eastward on airway route 1712. The Nimitz sent a fighter patrol north to check it out but it didn’t respond when they tried to hail it. I’m attaching the photos the navy took to an email. It’s obviously an old DC-6 with its tail numbers painted out. It’s probably nothing but it’s all we’ve come up with that doesn’t check out.”
Israel's Next War Page 10
