by Stuart Slade
“Iggie, I’ve got to ask you to go straight out again. To England. We’ve heard from Nell. The transatlantic telegram service is back in operation again, thank the Gods, and she needs help. I need you to go over there, find out at first hand what is going on and why. Then come back and tell me what they need.”
Stuyvesant got up and walked over to the door of his office. “Dido, could you find Lillith please and ask her to bring Igrat’s tickets in? Thanks, honey.”
“Why don’t you get an intercom box?” Igrat was curious. “They’re neat.”
“Don’t like them. Too much of a risk that one will get left on and broadcast what is going on in here to the world. And, sooner or later, somebody will find a way of turning the speaker on when it’s off, if you get my drift. Ahh, Lillith; another clipper ticket I see?”
“Phillip, in the last month we have spent over four thousand dollars on transatlantic air tickets alone. Allowing for our other expenses, we’ve got precious little change from ten thousand and the bills are still coming in. At this rate it would be cheaper to buy our own flying boat.”
“I’ve looked at that.” Stuyvesant sounded disappointed. “A Boeing 314 will cost us a million dollars. And that’s assuming we can get on to the production list. Pan-American have just ordered another batch of six and the Army Air Corps want a round dozen. Then there’s Boeing’s commitment to B-17 production. Even if we put in the order now, we wouldn’t see the aircraft for at least three or four years. There are also rumors that a bigger and better flying boat is being built for Pan American. So, no private Clipper for us.”
“Well, Igrat will just have to swim across the Atlantic. I’ve looked at the map in my pocket diary and it doesn’t seem very far.”
“Spoken like a true disciple of Standartenführer Odwin Noth.” Lillith looked confused; Igrat and Stuyvesant burst out laughing again. “Lillith, give Igrat her ticket for the Dixie Clipper and then shoo both of you. I’ve got some reading to do.”
Bang Phitsan Palace, Bangkok, Thailand
“We have received some intelligence from our sources in Saigon, Your Highness.” Lani entered the room and deposited the files on to Suriyothai’s desk. “They relate to a major change in policy with regard to French relations with us. Especially on border issues.”
Suriyothai looked at the documents that had arrived on her desk. The official Thai government position was that after the fall of France, the mandate of French authorities in Indo China had changed. The Foreign Office was hoping that the new government would have a friendlier attitude than their predecessors and that negotiations over border demarcation issues could be concluded.
Suriyothai’s personal agenda was quite different; a friendly, cooperative French government in Indo-China was the last thing she wanted to see. It wasn’t the first time she had found herself working against the official government of the country and she sadly reflected that it probably would not be the last.
She opened up the file and started to read the contents. It took all her self-control not to whoop with joy when she read the policy statement. It announced that effective immediately, the French authorities in Indo-China would be adopting a policy they called ‘dissuasion’. It expressly stated that if Thailand attempted to negotiate over outstanding border issues or complain about French military actions on border, French aircraft would overfly Thai territory and French artillery start to shell Thai border posts. There would be no negotiations over any issue connected with relations between Thailand and French Indo-China.
The change in policy couldn’t have suited Suriyothai more if she had written it herself. That made it all the more ironic that neither she nor anybody she knew had a hand in formulating it. What the French officials were thinking was quite beyond her. They had prepared a disaster for themselves.
And that was only one piece of the puzzle in place. The other was a second report on Indo-China. This one suggested that Japanese ambitions in the area were beginning to come to a boil. The problem was quite simple; with the capture of Longzhou, the highway joining French-controlled ports in Indo-China with the Chinese forces fighting the Japanese was closed. The problem, in Japanese eyes at least, was that the Yunnan-Vietnam Railway still permitted shipment of material from Haiphong to Kunming, despite repeated air strikes by the Japanese attempting to close it. More than 10,000 tons of military supplies a month were moving along that railway.
The Japanese wanted that supply line closed and they wanted bases and other facilities in French Indo-China. They were already putting heavy pressure on the French authorities to grant them use of airfields and ports in the colony. The official reason was the supplies reaching China, but Suriyothai knew there was more to it than that. French Indo-China would be a springboard for an assault on the rest of the region. The ultimate prize was the rubber resources of Malaya and the oil in the Dutch East Indies. She also knew that Thailand lay directly in the path of that assault.
“Lani, call the British Ambassador, Sir Josiah Crosby, and ask if I might have a meeting with him at his earliest convenience.”
British Embassy, Bangkok, Thailand
“As you can see, Sir Josiah, this is a problem that must deeply concern my country. As a result of the French incursions into our territory in the latter part of the 19th century and their seizure of our territory as late as 1908, many Thai nationals live under French control. Given Japanese performance in China, we can only be deeply worried about their safety in the event of Japan taking control of French Indo-China.”
“I can quite understand that position, Madam Ambassador. Unfortunately, I am also in an invidious position. I have orders from the government in London that essentially tell me to do nothing and ensure that no action is taken that may involve Britain in any regional disputes. However, I doubt the legality of the government in London and have received no explanation of what is happening there. All I receive are blunt directives which show little understanding of the complexities in the situation out here. Now, I do report, eventually, to London but my line of authority runs first to the government in India and from there to London. I can honestly say there is no doubt about the bona fides of the Indian authorities and their instructions are that I should act as I see fit in defense of Indian interests. Frankly, I find that a much more agreeable set of instructions.
“Also, I share your concern about Japanese expansionism. Personally, if I were in your government’s position, I would hold that if Japan takes Indo-China under its control, Thailand should ask for the return of those parts of the area where the people are of Siamese ancestry.”
“Sadly, that is the problem, Sir Josiah. The French are making it very clear that they will entertain no negotiations with us on any issue. Indeed, they are making it clear that they wish no contact with us in any area. I have received reports that people attempting to trade across the border have been arrested by the French colonial police and severely beaten.”
Suriyothai shook her head sadly. The incidents she had mentioned were quite genuine and she had had nothing to do with planning or executing them. It’s very strange how the French Indo-China authorities are doing almost exactly what I want, unprompted by me. Do they have a death-wish or something?
“You must understand, Sir Josiah, that in these areas, family connections go back many generations, often to before the foundation of my country. It is family that matters there. Countries come and go, but the family is always there. So one part of the family trades with another regardless of where the border is or the names of the countries on either side of it. This French policy of ’dissuasion’ strikes at the heart of social organization in the entire region. It is cruel.”
“I agree, Madam Ambassador. This policy seems hardly enlightened, but what can you do about it?” Sir Josiah sighed theatrically.
“Therein is the problem. The growing Japanese position in Indo-China is a threat to us all. Most of all, it is a threat to India. The Japanese need oil, rubber and all the other raw materials that this r
egion can supply. They also have covetous eyes on India itself for its riches and its population. Most of all, they want the great naval base of Singapore. If they establish a secure base in Indo-China, they will strike westwards. Once over the Mekong, the next viable line of defense is the Irawaddy. If that is held, it will still mean the loss of Malaya and Singapore. It will also mean that we get overrun of course. If the line of the Irawaddy doesn’t hold, the next viable defense line is the mountains on the India/Burma border. At that point, the Japanese will have almost everything they need except India itself and they will be in a vastly stronger position to take that.”
“I think you underestimate the strength of Singapore, Madam Ambassador. Its great guns make it impregnable.”
“From the landward side? How many of those guns can be trained upon an attacker from Malaya? And do the guns have explosive ammunition suitable for firing at an Army?”
“More than one might think. And I believe the munitions stores are comprehensive.”
“And the water supply? Singapore has little or no water available on the island itself. If the water pipes from the mainland are cut, how long can the garrison hold out?”
Sir Josiah looked at his guest sharply. He had noted the skill with which she discussed strategic affairs. And she had made an obvious point now she had mentioned it. The water supply was the great Achilles heel of the fortress. She was right; Singapore was vulnerable from the landward side, even with its great guns. “And what do you think they would do from there?”
Suriyothai thought for a second. “Singapore would become their forward operating base. Are you aware that the Japanese have assembled their six aircraft carriers into a single striking force? They call it the Dai Ichi Kido Butai, the First Air Mobile Striking Force. I do not believe its equal exists anywhere in the world. With all six carriers operating together, they can throw almost four hundred aircraft into a battle over a limited area. That will gain them air superiority. I think they would strike at Ceylon first, seize that and thus establish another forward base at Trincomalee. India would then be faced with a two-pronged assault, from the south and the north. Such an assault would strain Japanese power to the outer limits of the plausible, but the potential rewards for them may make the commitment worthwhile.
The sweeping concept made Sir Josiah blink. “What are you suggesting, Madam Ambassador?”
“That the only viable line of defense for India is along the Mekong. By the time the Irawaddy is reached, Japan will have already won. Frankly, I doubt that the Irawaddy can be held. It is simply in the wrong place. Too far from India to be supported, too close to Japanese base areas to be secure and it will have already conceded everything the Japanese want. Sir Josiah, the options are the Mekong or a massive loss and a desperate fight in the Imphal-Kohima mountains. Possibly supported by an assault in Tamil Nadu. If we hold the Mekong, the situation of India having to protect itself doesn’t arise. The Japanese will never get there.”
“You sound very sure of that.”
“Very sure. Their Army is of no great concern to us. We outnumber their Indochina Expeditionary Force on the ground and our Army has been rebuilt by German instructors who preferred to live here than under the regime presently ruling Germany. It is in the air we are weak. We would like to reequip with modern American fighters and bombers but the Americans are refusing to deliver our latest order. There are six P64 fighters and ten A27 bombers held up in America now despite the fact that we have already paid for them. We wish to use purchase more American equipment but we may be forced to acquire Japanese aircraft instead. And that will force us to ally with them, not you. That is not our wish.”
“You would not consider British aircraft?”
“We would, if we were offered them. We would regard Spitfires and Hurricanes as gifts from the Gods. But, all we are offered are Gladiators and old, surplus Gamecocks. They are no advance on what we have already. Sir Josiah, we must ask the aid of India in this matter. We would beg you to intercede with the Americans, convince them that we simply wish to control our own destiny free from outside bullying and domination. Rather like a group of thirteen colonies some years ago. If America extends the hand of friendship to us, we need seek no other.”
“Except India, of course.”
“Of course, Sir Josiah. The fortunes of my country and India are indissolubly linked. Geography, simple geography, tells us that.”
Room 208, Munitions Building, Washington, DC, USA
“So, where are we with the industrial analysis of Germany, Phillip?”
Phillip Stuyvesant produced a very heavy series of files from a carry case. “We’ve made a pretty good start in getting a picture of German industrial power sorted out. This is our initial overview of the situation, although it does leave much to be desired in the way of fine detail.”
“That’s the overview?” General George Marshall was dumbfounded by the sheer volume of paperwork that was being generated. “What, in the name of God, does the fine detail look like?”
“I can ask one of my assistants to bring what we have in. She’s waiting outside with it. I warn you though, she’ll have to wheel it in on a trolley; it’s a lot of data. Nobody has ever tried to do this before. What we are attempting to do is create a picture of the economy of an entire country and then work out how to dismantle it. This is not just a matter of finding the factories and bombing them. We have to work out how the various industrial structures interlock. From that, we can plan a campaign that will paralyze the German war economy.
“There’s something else as well we’re learning from this effort. We’re not just generating a picture of the German war economy. We’re getting a very fine handle on what German plans are. For example, we’re getting a picture of supplies, especially fuel, being shifted towards depots in the East. All the indications are that Germany is going to invade Russia. It’s too late for them to do it this year, and anyway, their army is down for maintenance after the fighting in France. But, the build-up of supplies in the east is accelerating too fast for an attack in the far future. It looks like we can expect the German invasion of Russia next year. We can even suggest how they are going to do it. It looks like three primary depot areas are being established, one in the north, one in the center and one in the south. Combining that with a railway map of the Soviet Union suggests that three thrusts are planned: one in the north aimed at Leningrad, one in the center aimed at Moscow and a third in the south aimed at Kiev. As the supply quantities build up, we could even make a guess as to the relative strengths of those thrusts. That will tell us what their overall invasion strategy is. An emphasis on the southern thrust will suggest priority being placed on resources; a northern bias will suggest industrial and political targets.
“That’s all a bonus though. The real meat is the data we’re getting on industrial capacity and that is intriguing. It seems as if Germany isn’t actually taking this war very seriously. They’ve mobilized, but not that much. They’re still producing large quantities of civilian goods. They’re even still making hunting rifles for the civilian market. I’d say we’re already mobilizing to a higher level than they are. I’d say that, if anything, we’re going to have a lead in that department.”
“How are you getting all this information?” General Arnold was curious. “I’ve seen nothing like this before.”
“A combination of sources, Sir. Some is simply assembling existing records and existing data. The commercial attaches in the Berlin embassy and elsewhere have been getting this stuff for years, but nobody did anything with it. I’ve got people going through those files now.”
“Women, I suppose.” Arnold was slightly sarcastic at that. The number of women filling key positions in the Economic Intelligence and Warfare Section had already been noticed in Washington circles.
“That’s right. For this kind of work, women outperform men. They’re more methodical and detail-orientated. Comes from looking after babies, I suppose.” Stuyvesant listened appreciatively t
o the ripple of laughter that went around the room. “We’ve also started developing industrial intelligence sources in the financial and industrial communities. We’re still authenticating what we get back from them. Our initial inquiries into the industrial-economic structure of Hitler’s Germany focused attention on the following: electric power, including sources of fuel and distribution systems; steel, including sources of raw material; petroleum products, including synthetic processes; the aircraft industry, including aluminum production and engine plants; and transportation, the most prominent components being the railway, canal and highway networks. We also included in our evaluations the nonferrous metal supply, machine tool production, and food processing and distribution.
“One thing we found out has been immensely helpful. It turns out that the electric power generating and distribution system of Germany is relatively new, and that it has been built with capital borrowed largely from the United States. Now, American banks do not lend large sums of money for capital equipment without making careful investigations of the proposed structures. So, we approached the great international banks, particularly in New York, as to the availability of drawings and specifications of German electric plants and systems. In doing so we’ve tapped into a gold mine of data.
“The long and the short of it is that we’ve been able to put together a comprehensive target study on the German electric power system and the electric distribution system. It has even been possible to prepare target folders, including aiming points and bomb sizes. We’ve also been able to do the same on petroleum and synthetic oil plants; partially through the same sources, partially through the oil industries, and partially through individuals. We were fortunate in that we have experience of work carried out in Germany, in the Rumanian fields at Ploesti, and in the Middle East. This demonstrated the extreme importance and vulnerability of the German synthetic oil plants and the related importance of the Ploesti refineries. Thus, we have started to prepare target folders for those systems also. In addition, we made an analysis of the German steel industry and its sources of raw materials. We were less successful in our analysis of German transportation, partly because of the extent of the rail and canal system. But we have found enough to place the transportation system high on the priority list of desired targets.”
