The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change

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The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change Page 67

by Al Gore


  516 merely accelerating and making more efficient a long-established practice

  Council for Biotechnology Information, “Myths & Facts: Plant Biotechnology.”

  517 has ever produced any increase in the intrinsic yields

  Doug Gurian-Sherman, Failure to Yield (Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009).

  518 ecosystem concerns that are not so easily dismissed

  Michael Faure and Andri Wibisana, “Liability for Damage Caused by GMOs: An Economic Perspective,” Georgetown International Environmental Law Review 23, no. 1 (2010): 1–69.

  519 normal pattern of the organism’s genetic code and can cause

  Antoniou, Robinson, and Fagan, “GMO Myths and Truths, Version 1.3.”

  520 FLAVR SAVR

  G. Bruening and J. M. Lyons, “The Case of the FLAVR SAVR Tomato,” California Agriculture, July–August 2000.

  521 remain firm for a longer period of time after it ripened

  Ibid.

  522 consumer resistance

  Ibid.

  523 less rounded bottom to accommodate

  “Square Tomato,” Davis Wiki, 2012, http://daviswiki.org/square_tomato.

  524 catastrophic loss of flavor in modern tomatoes

  Dan Charles, “How the Taste of Tomatoes Went Bad (and Kept On Going),” NPR, June 28, 2012, http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2012/06/28/155917345/how-the-taste-of-tomatoes-went-bad-and-kept-on-going; Kai Kupferschmidt, “How Tomatoes Lost Their Taste,” ScienceNOW, June 28, 2012, http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2012/06/how-tomatoes-lost-their-taste.html.

  525 Almost 11 percent of all the world’s farmland

  Matthew Weaver, “Report: World Embraces Biotech Crops,” Capital Press, March 1, 2012.

  526 number of acres planted in GM crops

  International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications, “Pocket K No. 16: Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops in 2011,” http://www.isaaa.org/resources/publications/pocketk/16/default.asp.

  527 Although the United States is by far the largest grower

  International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications, ISAAA Brief 43-2011, Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2011, http://www.isaaa.org/resources/publications/briefs/43/executivesummary/default.asp.

  528 Monsanto’s Roundup herbicide, are the largest GM crop globally

  Ibid.; “Monsanto Strong-Arms Seed Industry,” Associated Press, January 4, 2011.

  529 Corn is the second most widely planted GM crop

  International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications, ISAAA Brief 43-2011, Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2011.

  530 In the U.S., 95 percent of soybeans planted

  “Monsanto Strong-Arms Seed Industry,” Associated Press, January 4, 2011.

  531 must purchase from Monsanto or one of their licensees

  International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications, ISAAA Brief 43-2011, Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2011.

  532 known as “rapeseed” outside the United States

  E. S. Oplinger et al., “Canola (Rapeseed),” Alternative Field Crops Manual, 1989, http://www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/afcm/canola.html.

  533 three generations, or waves, of the technology

  J. Fernandez-Cornejo and M. Caswell, “The First Decade of Genetically Engineered Crops in the United States,” U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 2006; Gurian-Sherman, Failure to Yield.

  534 The introduction of genes that give corn

  Gurian-Sherman, Failure to Yield.

  535 Genes introduced into corn

  Ibid. “Monsanto Strong-Arms Seed Industry,” Associated Press; Beverly Bell, “Haitian Farmers Commit to Burning Monsanto Hybrid Seeds,” Huffington Post, May 17, 2010, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/beverly-bell/haitian-farmers-commit-to_b_578807.html.

  536 designed to enhance the survivability of crops during droughts

  Fernandez-Cornejo and Caswell, “The First Decade of Genetically Engineered Crops in the United States.” It is worth noting that plant geneticists have also engineered a new variety of rice designed to survive complete submergence in water for more than two weeks; it is now being tested in rice fields in the Philippines that have been hit hard by flooding.

  537 report initial reductions in their cost of production

  National Research Council, “Impact of Genetically Engineered Crops on Farm Sustainability in the United States,” 2010.

  538 strain that is engineered to produce its own insecticide

  Ibid.; Calestous Juma, “Agricultural Biotechnology: Benefits, Opportunities and Leadership,” Testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Agriculture, Subcommittee on Rural Development, Research, Biotechnology and Foreign Agriculture, June 23, 2011, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/juma-house-testimony-june-23-2011-rev.pdf.

  539 In India the new Bt cotton made the nation a net exporter

  Juma, “Agricultural Biotechnology.”

  540 have begun to protest the high cost of the GM seeds

  Gargi Parsai, “Protests Mark 10th Anniversary of Bt Cotton,” Hindu, March 27, 2012; Zia Haq, “Ministry Blames Bt Cotton for Farmer Suicides,” Hindustan Times, March 26, 2012.

  541 that field trials of GM crops “under any garb”

  Pallava Bagla, “India Should Be More Wary of GM Crops, Parliamentary Panel Says,” ScienceInsider, August 2012.

  542 the intrinsic yields of the crops themselves are not increased at all

  National Research Council, “Impact of Genetically Engineered Crops on Farm Sustainability in the United States,” 2010.

  543 unexpected collateral changes in the plants’ genetic code

  Gurian-Sherman, Failure to Yield.

  544 both greater yields and greater resistance to the effects of drought

  Personal conversation with author.

  545 offer the promise of increased yields during dry periods

  Union of Concerned Scientists, “High and Dry,” May 2012, http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/food_and_agriculture/high-and-dry-summary.pdf.

  546 tremendous interest in drought-resistant strains, especially for maize

  Gurian-Sherman, Failure to Yield; Andrew Pollack, “Drought Resistance Is the Goal, but Methods Differ,” New York Times, October 23, 2008.

  547 genes working together in complicated ways

  “Why King Corn Wasn’t Ready for the Drought,” Wired, August 9, 2012.

  548 “limited at best”

  Union of Concerned Scientists, “High and Dry.”

  549 introduction of genes that enhance the nutrient value

  Fernandez-Cornejo and Caswell, “The First Decade of Genetically Engineered Crops in the United States.”

  550 higher protein content in corn (maize) that is used primarily for livestock

  Calestous Juma, The New Harvest: Agricultural Innovation in Africa (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011).

  551 new strain of rice that produces extra vitamin A

  Juma, “Agricultural Biotechnology: Benefits, Opportunities and Leadership.”

  552 enhance the resistance of plants to particular fungi and viruses

  Pamela C. Ronald and James E. McWilliams, “Genetically Engineered Distortions,” New York Times, May 14, 2010.

  553 The third wave of GM crops

  Fernandez-Cornejo and Caswell, “The First Decade of Genetically Engineered Crops in the United States.”

  554 with high cellulose and lignin

  National Research Council, “Impact of Genetically Engineered Crops on Farm Sustainability in the United States”; Fernandez-Cornejo and Caswell, “The First Decade of Genetically Engineered Crops in the United States”; Fuad Hajji, “Engineering Renewable Cellulosic Thermoplastics,” Reviews in Environmental Science and Biotechnology 10, no. 1 (2011): 25–30.

  555 in a world with growing population and food consumption


  Hajji, “Engineering Renewable Cellulosic Thermoplastics.”

  556 because of the unprecedented complexity of the challenge

  Matt Ridley, “Getting Crops Ready for a Warmer Tomorrow,” Wall Street Journal, July 6, 2012.

  557 temporary reduction in losses to pests

  Gurian-Sherman, Failure to Yield; Antoniou, Robinson, and Fagan, “GMO Myths and Truths, Version 1.3.”

  558 National Bioeconomy Blueprint

  Andrew Pollack, “White House Promotes a Bioeconomy,” New York Times, April 26, 2012.

  559 make themselves impervious to the herbicides and insecticides

  National Research Council, “Impact of Genetically Engineered Crops on Farm Sustainability in the United States”; Faure and Wibisana, “Liability for Damage Caused by GMOs”; Antoniou, Robinson, and Fagan, “GMO Myths and Truths, Version 1.3.”

  560 forcing the mutation of new strains of pests that are highly resistant

  Faure and Wibisana, “Liability for Damage Caused by GMOs”; Antoniou, Robinson, and Fagan, “GMO Myths and Truths, Version 1.3.”

  561 genetically engineered to survive application of the herbicide

  National Research Council, “Impact of Genetically Engineered Crops on Farm Sustainability in the United States.”

  562 increases among weeds and insects, the overall use of both herbicides

  Antoniou, Robinson, and Fagan, “GMO Myths and Truths, Version 1.3.”

  563 though advocates of GM crops dispute their analysis

  Council for Biotechnology Information, “Myths & Facts: Plant Biotechnology,” http://www.whybiotech.com/resources/myths_plantbiotech.asp.

  564 and more dangerous—herbicides

  Antoniou, Robinson, and Fagan, “GMO Myths and Truths, Version 1.3.”

  565 $17.5 billion and both insecticides and fungicides representing

  Clive Cookson, “Agrochemicals: Innovation Has Slowed Since Golden Age of the 1990s,” Financial Times, October 13, 2011.

  566 U.S. Air Force to clear jungles and forest cover during the Vietnam War

  “ ‘Agent Orange Corn’ Debate Rages as Dow Seeks Approval of New Genetically Modified Seed,” Huffington Post, April 26, 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/26/enlist-dow-agent-orange-corn_n_1456129.html.

  567 “endocrine disruption, reproductive problems, neurotoxicity, and immunosuppression”

  Ibid.

  568 U.S. farm belt by almost 60 percent over the last decade

  Tom Philpott, “Researchers: GM Crops Are Killing Monarch Butterflies, After All,” Mother Jones, March 21, 2012.

  569 cropland dedicated to crop varieties engineered to be tolerant of Roundup

  Ned Potter, “Are Monarch Butterflies Threatened by Genetically Modified Crops?,” ABC News, July 13, 2011, http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/monarch-butterflies-genetically-modified-gm-crops/story?id=14057436#.UA2kPUQ-KF4; Philpott, “Researchers: GM Crops Are Killing Monarch Butterflies, After All.”

  570 harmful impact on at least one subspecies of monarchs

  Faure and Wibisana, “Liability for Damage Caused by GMOs.”

  571 Although proponents of GM crops have minimized

  Potter, “Are Monarch Butterflies Threatened by Genetically Modified Crops?”; Monsanto, “Frequently Asked Questions,” http://www.monsanto.com/hawaii/Pages/faqs-hawaii.aspx.

  572 a new group of pesticides known as neonicotinoids

  Elizabeth Kolbert, “Silent Hives,” New Yorker, April 20, 2012.

  573 since the affliction first appeared in 2006

  Ibid.

  574 “About one mouthful in three”

  U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, “Questions and Answers: Colony Collapse Disorder,” December 17, 2010, http://www.ars.usda.gov/News/docs.htm?docid=15572.

  575 because the engineered seeds must be purchased annually by farmers

  Science Museum (UK), “Who Benefits from GM?,” http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/antenna/futurefoods/debate/debateGM_CIPbusiness.asp.

  576 can introduce genes that do not fit into the seed company’s design

  Miriam Jordan, “The Big War Over a Small Fruit,” Wall Street Journal, July 13, 2012.

  577 with pollen from citrus varieties that have seeds

  Ibid.

  578 all of the major commodity crops

  Union of Concerned Scientists, “Industrial Agriculture: Features and Policy,” May 17, 2007, http://www.ucsusa.org/food_and_agriculture/science_and_impacts/impacts_industrial_agriculture/industrial-agriculture-features.html.

  579 reliance on monocultures makes agriculture highly vulnerable to pests

  Ibid.

  580 stem rust began attacking wheat fields in Uganda

  “Scientists in Kenya Try to Fend Off Disease Threatening World’s Wheat Crop,” PBS NewsHour, December 28, 2011, http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/globalhealth/july-dec11/wheat_12-28.html.

  581 Similarly, cassava

  Donald G. McNeil Jr., New York Times, “Virus Ravages Cassava Plants in Africa,” June 1, 2010.

  582 “The speed is just unprecedented”

  Ibid.

  583 Ireland’s heavy reliance on a monocultured potato strain from the Andes

  Nicholas Wade, “Testing Links Potato Famine to an Origin in the Andes,” New York Times, June 7, 2011.

  584 destroyed in 1970 by a new variety of Southern corn leaf blight

  Union of Concerned Scientists, “Industrial Agriculture: Features and Policy.”

  585 robust global work under way to genetically modify trees

  Clive Cookson, “Barking Up the Right GM Tree?,” Financial Times, July 20, 2012.

  586 genes from one species into the genome of another

  National Research Council, “Emerging Technologies to Benefit Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia,” 2009.

  587 synthetic growth hormone in dairy cattle

  Carina Storrs, “Hormones in Food: Should You Worry?,” Health.com/Huffington Post, January 19, 2011.

  588 elevated levels of IGF and a significantly higher risk of prostate cancer

  Ibid.

  589 for the labeling of milk with bovine growth hormone

  Andrew Martin, “Consumers Won’t Know What They’re Missing,” New York Times, November 11, 2007.

  590 has significantly decreased its use

  Dan Shapley, “Eli Lilly Buys Monsanto’s Dairy Hormone Business,” Daily Green, August 20, 2008, http://www.thedailygreen.com/healthy-eating/eat-safe/rbst-hormones-milk-470820; “Safeway Milk Free of Bovine Hormone,” Associated Press, January 21, 2007.

  591 into the embryos of dairy cows

  Haze Fan and Maxim Duncan, “Cows Churn Out ‘Human Breast Milk,’ ” Reuters, June 16, 2011.

  592 at the National Institute of Agribusiness Technology

  Robin Yapp, “Scientists Create Cow That Produces ‘Human’ Milk,” Telegraph, June 11, 2011.

  593 intended for direct consumption by human beings

  Harmon and Pollack, “Battle Brewing Over Labeling of Genetically Modified Food.”

  594 a salmon modified with an extra growth hormone gene

  Andrew Pollack, “Panel Leans in Favor of Engineered Salmon,” New York Times, September 20, 2010.

  595 as fast as a normal salmon

  Randy Rieland, “Food, Modified Food,” Smithsonian, June 29, 2012.

  596 about the possibility of increased levels of insulin-like growth factor

  Storrs, “Hormones in Food: Should You Worry?”

  597 changing the species in an unintended way

  Pollack, “Panel Leans in Favor of Engineered Salmon”; Bill Chameides, “Genetically Modified Salmon: The Meta-Question,” New Scientist, November 23, 2010.

  598 to reduce the amount of phosphorus in their feces

  Andrew Pollack, “Move to Market Gene-Altered Pigs in Canada Is Halted,” New York Times, April 4, 2012.

  599 They called their creation Enviropigs

  University of Gue
lph, “Enviropig™,” http://www.uoguelph.ca/enviropig/index.shtml.

  600 because phosphorus is a source of algae blooms

  University of Guelph, “Environmental Benefits,” http://www.uoguelph.ca/enviropig/environmental_benefits.shtml.

  601 abandoned their project and euthanized the pigs

  Pollack, “Move to Market Gene-Altered Pigs in Canada Is Halted.”

  602 because scientists elsewhere engineered an enzyme, phytase

  Clive Cookson, “Agrochemicals: Innovation Has Slowed Since Golden Age of the 1990s,” Financial Times, October 13, 2011.

  603 which, when added to pig feed

  Pollack, “Move to Market Gene-Altered Pigs in Canada Is Halted.”

  604 genetically engineer insects, including bollworms

  Henry Nicholls, “Swarm Troopers: Mutant Armies Waging War in the Wild,” New Scientist, September 12, 2011.

  605 and mosquitoes

  Michael Specter, “The Mosquito Solution,” New Yorker, July 9 and 16, 2012, pp. 38–46.

  606 species of mosquito that carries dengue fever

  Nicholls, “Swarm Troopers.”

  607 The larvae, having no access to tetracycline

  Andy Coghlan, “Genetically Altered Mosquitoes Thwart Dengue Spreaders,” New Scientist, November 11, 2010; Nicholls, “Swarm Troopers.”

  608 proposed the release of large numbers of their mosquitoes

  Specter, “The Mosquito Solution.”

  609 potentially disruptive effects on the ecosystem

  Nicholls, “Swarm Troopers”; Specter, “The Mosquito Solution.”

  610 small number of the offspring do in fact survive

  Nicholls, “Swarm Troopers”; Specter, “The Mosquito Solution”; Andrew Pollack, “Concerns Are Raised About Genetically Engineered Mosquitoes,” New York Times, October 31, 2011.

  611 spread their adaptation to the rest of the mosquito population

  Nicholls, “Swarm Troopers”; Specter, “The Mosquito Solution.”

  612 “may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases”

  Tim Sandle, “Link between Dengue Fever and Climate Change in the US,” Digital Journal, July 7, 2012, http://digitaljournal.com/print/article/328094.

  613 Dengue, which now afflicts up to 100 million people each year

  World Health Organization, Dengue and Severe Dengue Fact Sheet, January 2012, http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs117/en/.

 

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