by Don Wittig
“That’s the same thing as holding the variable constant.”
“So once again, we see that the assumptions that are the basis for global warming models are basically flawed if they do not include a solar forcing increase or cycle?”
“Yes and no. If we have increased solar forcing on top of higher CO2 emissions, then the warming effect is magnified.”
“But, Dr. Deerman, that begs the question. Which comes first, the chicken or the egg? On average, solar radiation has been increasing since the end of the nineteenth century, even considering the reductions of radiation in the eleven-year cycles?”
“Correct.” Deerman recalled what O’Reilly had taught him about volunteering information: don’t. Still, he didn’t like cross-examination and his inability to fully explain the other side of the equation. He barely stopped his left hand from reaching for the back of his neck.
“So we agree we need greenhouse gases to survive and that the sun keeps us all warm, sometimes hotter and sometimes cooler. Now let’s talk about Mars.”
2 “Dr. Deerman, you are aware that there are some five satellites orbiting Mars?”
“Didn’t know the number, but yes, there are studies of Mars and some probes of the surface.”
“Are you also aware that according to NASA satellite data, the atmosphere on Mars is warming?”
“Yes.”
“Are you also aware that observations from our satellite Global Surveyor, show that the snowcap at the Martian South Pole is eroding ten feet a year?”
“Yes, but we don’t know the causes.”
“But we do know there aren’t any SUVs, no coal burning, no factories, and no heating oil on Mars? Or am I mistaken!”
“On that, you are not mistaken.”
“Speaking of being mistaken, scientists in the 1970s told us we were in for more glaciers, more cooling, and perhaps even an ice age. Not so?”
“They were mistaken.”
“Mistaken then or mistaken now?”
“Objection. Argumentative,” barked O’Reilly.
“Sustained. Move along, Mr. Mack.”
“My mistake, your honor.” Mack grinned at the judge. Martin was not amused.
Deerman’s hand went to the back of his head and he had a good scratch. A glare from O’Reilly sent his hand retreating to its designated hiding place. Where is this crazy lawyer going next? he wondered.
“Before we leave outer space, Mars is not the only planet that is warming. Is it, Dr. Deerman?”
“No, it’s not.”
“In fact, we know that Jupiter and Neptune are also warming without any anthropomorphic assistance? Excuse me, without any help from humankind or CO2?”
“There are some recent studies to that effect, but the data go back less than twenty years.”
“So we should not consider data from the last twenty years?”
“Yes, of course. We just know a lot more about Earth than Neptune.”
“So let’s go back to Earth. You mentioned that in 2005, fiftythree cubic miles of ice drained away from Greenland. But there are other studies that show the ice mass of the Antarctic is actually increasing. True?”
“Yes.”
“In fact, more ice has been accumulating from the snows at the snowcaps. A study from 1992 to 2003 indicates an ice increase of eleven gigatons per year, true?”
“Yes, but there are disagreements over the measuring techniques.”
“Yes, and there are also disagreements over the measuring techniques that show miles of ice draining. Just because ice melts at the bottom of an ice machine doesn’t mean the ice machine is not making new ice, now does it, Dr. Deerman?”
“Touché!”
“And we do know that some measure of new ice is forming above fifteen hundred feet. You will not deny that, will you?”
“No.”
“In fact, the same study shows the ice cap growing six point four centimeters per year. So the Antarctic ice mass may be growing at the same time as there is more ice melt?”
“Possibly.”
“The real issue is the total ice mass, not how much is melting?”
“Yes.”
“So let’s see now. Antarctica is adding to its ice cap and Mars is losing ten feet a year. But you can’t tell us why, can you Dr. Deerman?”
“I cannot.”
“Finally, let’s talk about volcanos. A single volcano can create more climate change in a few hours than humankind can create in hundreds of years. True?”
“True.”
“Volcanos can radically change the climate because they emit tons, perhaps gigatons of ash, soot, and molten lava. The atmospheric winds can pick up the ash and soot and spread it to different places all over the Earth, not so?”
“True.”
“So take the eruption of Mount Penatubo in 1991. The release of ash and soot helped cool the troposphere and increased the albedo of Earth, which in turn reduced solar radiation. Correct?”
“Correct.”
“To be more precise, volcanos release water vapor, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, hydrogen fluoride, and so forth, in that order. A lot of greenhouse gases?”
“True.”
“You also know volcanos release one hundred and forty-five to two hundred and fifty-five million short tons of CO2 every year. No way to stop those emissions, is there?”
“No.”
“And yet, volcanos actually can cause global climate cooling, can’t they?”
“Yes.” Deerman squirmed, almost started to scratch, but caught himself. He was getting angry at the way Mack was questioning him. Mack left little room for Deerman to expand and explain his answers. He was not the executive director of Sahara now; Mack was.
“And what if we had a mega-volcano go off, such as Yellowstone?”
“That could be a disaster.”
“Worse than a disaster, Dr. Deerman. The last mega volcano plunged Earth’s temperature by twenty-one degrees. That was Mount Toba in Sumatra, correct?”
“Correct.”
“How many volcanic eruptions do we have every year right now?”
“About sixty.”
“And about how often has Yellowstone erupted in the past, Doctor?”
“About every six hundred thousand years.”
“So we are about forty thousand years overdue? And the caldera of Yellowstone is about eighty-five kilometers by forty-five kilometers, correct?”
“Yes, in a general sense.”
“Fair to say if Yellowstone erupts, we won’t need to worry about SUVs or coal generated electricity, will we?”
“Mr. Mack, that’s quite a stretch to say Yellowstone is overdue to erupt. Pure speculation.”
“Who is doing the speculation here, Dr. Deerman? Everything I said about Yellowstone is a fact. Something you can’t say, can you, Doctor?”
“Objection!”
“Sustained.”
Deerman fidgeted in the witness chair. A dark feeling came over him. He was being led down a path he didn’t want to go. The jury sensed something was up. A foreboding silence permeated the courtroom.
DON WITTIG Mack was quite pleased with himself. He scrunched his brow for a moment. Should he, or shouldn’t he? They sued my clients for a trillion dollars. What the hell.
“Before I let you go, I am curious about what some may think is a strange alignment of complainants or plaintiffs. My clients are being sued by four environmental groups and one retired engineer. How is it that this strange amalgam got together, I mean Ms. Lewis and your groups?”
“Objection. Vague and irrelevant.”
“Sustained.”
“Did your environmental groups and Ms. Lewis meet for the
first time in your attorney’s office in Houston?”
“Objection. Mr. Mack knows he cannot go into attorney-client
communications.”
“Sustained.”
“Dr. Deerman, how long have you known and what is your relationship with Ms. Lewis?�
�
“Objection. Your honor, may we approach the bench?” Deerman instinctively reached his hand for the back of his head
and scratched away. He tried to suppress a massive flow of blood
to his face. He looked like a ruby-red grapefruit turned inside out. “That won’t be necessary your honor.” Mack suppressed a small
smirk. “I withdraw the question and pass the witness.” Mack had
baited O’Reilly into objecting and thereby adding emphasis to the
question. Deerman had blushed. The answer didn’t matter. The
insinuation was there for the jury to pick up or ignore. Melinda Lewis looked down at her tightly clasped hands. She
felt as if a venomous scorpion had stung her left shoulder, just
below the collarbone.
27 The Jury and O’Reilly React
T WO FEMALE JURORS SEATED NEXT to each other in the back row viscerally reacted to Mack’s insinuation. Julie was forty-something, dishwater blond, divorced, and just a few pounds over her ideal. She was tall like Melinda Lewis and felt a kindred bond with the complainant. Julie Gerard didn’t try to conceal her frown at Mack’s unnecessary foray into Melinda’s private life. Didn’t like it one bit. Julie was a registered nurse and in charge of out-patient operations at Mercy Hospital. She had dated some of the doctors at the hospital, among others, but knew the importance of keeping one’s dating life private. Julie had been on the divorce scene just a couple years. She planned to keep it that way for at least a few more years.
To her left, her new friend, Tiashi, flashed an even more scornful look of disapproval. During voir dire questioning, Tiashi was never asked about the fact she grew up in the lower Ninth Ward. She lived right outside the French Quarter now, but the home she grew up in was demolished by the flood. Mack’s team had eliminated most of the African-Americans on the jury, but Tiashi had a college degree and worked for AT&T since graduating fifteen years before. They thought she was a safe juror. The first of her two children was born from her only marriage, which lasted eight years before her abusive husband caused their divorce. Tiashi played the field for a while afterward but did not think that dating patterns were anybody’s business except the two who were seeing each other. Mack had lobbed a grenade at Deerman, but it errantly sailed into the jury box.
O’Reilly sensed the same. His associate, Holly Harrison, noted the reactions of Julie and Tiashi and whispered something into O’Reilly’s ear. He solemnly stood and slowly approached the dais. He carefully chose his words to take advantage of Mack’s apparent blunder without suborning perjury. “Mr. Mack wants to know about your relationship with Dr. Lewis so why don’t you tell them. What is your relationship with Dr. Lewis?”
“We are professional colleagues,” Deerman replied sternly. “Before working on this case, we were involved in several Corps of Engineer projects. I respect her very much as a highly qualified engineer who also gives more than lip service to protecting the environment.” Deerman regretted his choice of words, but it was done. He knew exactly what O’Reilly was doing and played the straight man very well.
“In fact, you worked with Dr. Lewis, then Captain Lewis, on the Chesapeake Bay project?”
“Yes.”
“And you have been on the opposite side of at least one lawsuit
your organization brought against the Corps. Is that correct?” “Correct.” Deerman was squirming, but he tried not to let it
show. Please stop this line of questioning, he thought.
“So in your professional relationship with Dr. Lewis, you have
been on the same side of lawsuits and the opposite side?” “Yes.”
“Are you and Dr. Lewis social friends also?”
“Not really. We may have met socially on a few occasions. But
we have always been primarily professional acquaintances.” O’Reilly smiled inwardly to himself. He had stealthily diffused
Mack’s hand grenade and silently dared Mack to go back into the
subject of their relationship. Mack knew he had lost this skirmish but
hoped he hadn’t permanently turned Julie and Tiashi against him. “Dr. Deerman, Mr. Mack also mentioned Mars. That’s pretty far
afield of Katrina, but what can you tell us about the Martian ice caps?” “The snow packs of the Martian South Pole are loaded with
CO2. As the ice and snow melt, they are releasing tons of CO2. So we could have the same feedback loops on Mars that we have on Earth. It’s like the melting of ice packs in Greenland. In other words, the more it warms, the more CO2 is released and the warmer it gets. The worse it gets, the worse it gets. And don’t forget that what little
atmosphere there is on Mars consists primarily of CO2.” “Back to Earth, tell us about what else is happening with ocean
warming and its effect on hurricanes.”
“Hurricanes need a certain level of heat to feed on in order to
increase their strength. Every year now, the area of water that is
twenty-six point five degrees centigrade or greater expands by
hundreds of kilometers. As the warmer water reaches more northern regions, we could see hurricanes as far north as Canada. Not
only are hurricanes intensifying due to global warming, but their
breeding grounds are expanding as well. That means more hurricanes and stronger hurricanes.”
“Finally, in your opinion does the Army Corps of Engineers take
into consideration the science of global warming when it designs
and builds the levee systems that protect the lives of the people of
New Orleans and the Gulf Coast?”
“No. The Corps either ignores or disputes the well-accepted
science of global warming and rising sea levels.”
“Thank you, Dr. Deerman. Pass the witness.”
“No questions.” Mack calculated he had scored as many points
as possible with Deerman. He only wished he could take back the
one blistering serve which apparently touched some nerves in at
least two of the jurors.
“The court will be in recess until one fifteen.”
Melinda Lewis let out a barely audible sigh of relief. It could
have been a lot worse, she thought. It seemed as if Mack’s brief
assault upon her virtue may cost him dearly with at least some of
the jury. Let’s get back to the merits of the case, she thought. O’Reilly thought this would be an opportune time to stop and
rest his case. He would consult with his staff over lunch, then
announce his decision when court resumed.
DON WITTIG
28 The Defense Counterattacks
“Y OUR HONOR, AT THIS TIME the complainants rest.”
Judge Martin commanded, “Mr. Mack, call your first witness.” “The defense calls Dr. Wally Waters.”
The tall, professional-looking Wallace Waters slightly swayed
to the witness stand. A lanky, almost gaunt man in his late sixties, he didn’t quite swish, but he had a light airiness that would leave a lot of people wondering, including the watchful jury. Yet his slightly effeminate presence was in sharp contrast to his strong, deep, masculine, and persuasive speech. Waters was accustomed to the spotlight and had headed many institutes in addition to his still full schedule of lectures. He was a proud man and enjoyed being in control.
“Dr. Waters, please state your name, occupation, and educational background.”
“My name is Wallace Waters, Senior. I am a geologist by profession and climatologist by avocation. I head the Panamanian Institute for Paleoclimatology in Panama City, Panama. I received my PhD in geology from Tulane.”
“Dr. Waters, is it true you were once one of the youngest PhDs in the country?”
“Yes. I skipped my baccalaureate and master’s and went straight for my doctorate. Got it when I was twenty-two.”
“That’s impressive. You have r
eceived many awards for your work in climatology. But you are perhaps best known for your ocean oscillation science. Please describe for the ladies and gentlemen of the jury your scientific observations about ocean oscillation.”
“Perhaps we should begin with what we call thermohaline circulation. In the simplest terms, thermohaline circulation is the movement of water in the oceans and seas caused largely by the saline content of the water. Ocean waters with greater salt content sink, pulling other water behind. In other words, the heavier salt water falls lower, creating a current flow. This in turn creates the ocean conveyors.
“Most models used by climatologists hold hundreds of variables constant. Because there are so many differing factors when we talk about weather or climatology, most computer models make a lot of assumptions. In these assumptions, they hold certain factors constant or simply choose to ignore them. For example, the Earth wobbles on its axis between twenty-two and twenty-four degrees. This causes seasonal changes and cycles through forty-one thousand years. Climate models generally do not take this and the resulting varying solar radiation into account. It’s just easier for the modelers to hold these factors constant.
“The same thing is true for thermohaline circulation. That is to say, many climate models hold thermohaline circulation as a constant, but this is a grave error. The oceans are composed of varying degrees of salinity. Our rivers and glaciers constantly pour freshwater into the oceans, which affects their salinity. In the wintertime of each hemisphere, more water and snow freeze, capturing more of the freshwater. When it’s warmer in Antarctica, it’s colder in Greenland. In the cooler hemisphere, more water freezes and salinity increases there—that is to say, seawater gets more salty. Saltier, more dense water sinks as does cooler water. We call these sunken fluids ‘deep water.’ As the heavier deep water sinks, by the laws of physics, it pulls the other lighter water behind. The result of this thermohaline circulation, I call the conveyor. Others may call it the global conveyor, meridional overturning circulation, the MOC, and the great ocean conveyor. You can see why I prefer ‘ocean conveyor.’”
Waters cast a watchful eye toward the jury. He sensed that some of his testimony was new news to the jury. He decided to use an example.
