"Where are the major deposits?"
"Mostly along the lower slopes of the world's continental shelves, where the seabed drops from four hundred feet or so into the abyss several miles deep. There are major pockets off both U.S. coasts. As I said, you can find them in Costa Rica, Japan, India, and under the arctic permafrost. The sheer size of the deposits is astounding. The most recent estimates are ten thousand gigatons. That's double the total amount of all known reserves of coal, oil and natural gas."
Jenkins let out a low whistle. "Waiting there to be tapped when we suck our petroleum reserves dry."
"I wish it were so easy," Reed said with a sigh. "A few technical problems have to be ironed out before extraction is practical."
"Is it dangerous to drill?"
“The first time a ship drilled into a pocket was in 1970. Nothing happened, but drillers were afraid for years afterward that they'd get blown out of the water. Eventually, a few experimental bores showed that research drilling was safe. Getting hydrates to the surface to heat your home or run your SUV is another question. The environment is extremely hostile in the deep water where hydrates are found, and the stuff simply fizzes when we bring it up. The deposits may be another few hundred feet below the seafloor."
"That sounds like a tough neighborhood for rigs to operate in.”
"Absolutely. A number of countries and companies are working on the problem, though. One method is pumping steam or water down the drill hole. This melts the hydrate and releases methane. Then you pump the methane to the surface of the seafloor through another drill hole. Next comes the question of what you do with it. When you remove the hydrate, the seafloor destabilizes."
"There goes your expensive pipeline."
“A good possibility. Which is why engineers have come up with a scheme to put a production facility on the seafloor. You pump the hydrate out and combine it with water. The mix goes into big tanks shaped like dirigibles. Submarines would tow them to the shallows, where the hydrates would be safely broken down into fuel and water."
"With any of those methods, it sounds like mining hydrates is going to be like walking on eggshells."
"Even more difficult. Now back to your original question."
"About hydrates as a source of earthquakes and big waves."
"It's highly possible. There is evidence that the natural melting has destabilized seafloor slopes. They've found massive submarine landslides off the U.S. East Coast, Alaska and other countries. The Russians found unstable hydrate fields off Norway. They think one of the biggest releases ever recorded caused the Storrega submarine landslide: Eight thousand years ago, more than a thousand cubic miles of sediments slid for miles down the slope of the Norwegian continental slope."
"I' m acquainted with Storrega," Jenkins said. "Then you'd know that the huge mud slide caused unimaginable tsunamis. The Grand Banks and Rocky Point would have been bathtub waves by comparison."
Jenkins nodded. "What about man-made landslides. Possible?"
"I'd say they're plausible, sure. A drilling platform inadvertently cause a deposit to collapse, triggering a landslide."
Jenkins held his breath, then released it. "Inadvertently, yes. But could something like that be triggered deliberately?"
The tone grabbed their attention. Reed said, "What are you saying, Dr. Jenkins?"
Jenkins squirmed in his chair. "It's been driving me crazy. My gut instinct has been in conflict with my scientific training, which says gather all the evidence before coming to a conclusion, especially one as wild as this."
Reed scratched his chin. "Maybe, but as a scientist, I'm like you – I can't make that leap from conjecture to conclusion without a bridge of facts."
Yaeger got into the discussion. "Poetically said, Doc. Let's see if Max can help us. Were you eavesdropping, my love?"
The auburn-haired image of a woman reappeared. "It's hard not to listen in when I have six supersensitive microphones. Where would you like me to take you?"
Yaeger turned to the two scientists. "Gentlemen, it's all yours."
Reed had been giving it some thought. "Max, please give us an idea of the undersea methane-hydrate deposits along the U.S. coasts."
The face vanished and they were looking at a three-dimensional rendering of the sea bottom to the east and west of the United States, complete with mountains and canyons. Pulsating patches of crimson appeared in the shimmering blue sea off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.
"Now let's isolate this to the East Coast." The shoreline between Maine and the Florida Keys appeared.
"Good. Please zero in on Maine and show us the continental shelf."
They were looking at the long irregular coastline of the Pine Tree state stretching from Canada to New Hampshire. A wavy line appeared off the coast, running through the red patches of hydrates.
"If I may," Jenkins interjected, "could you highlight Rocky Point?"
A cornflower blue bull's-eye indicated Jenkins's hometown. A close-up aerial view of the town showing its bay and river appeared in the lower right-hand comer of the screen.
"Not bad," Jenkins said, noting the extra touch.
“Thank you," purred a disembodied voice.
Jenkins gave Max his boat's position when he had first seen the nascent tsunami. A silhouette of a fishing boat appeared in the holographic sea.
"Now we need a diagram showing the major undersea faults."
A spidery network of white lines appeared. The boat appeared to be in between Rocky Point and a major fault due east of the town.
Yaeger said, "That was great, Max. While you're in profile mode, let's go back to the continental shelf at the epicenter of the shock."
Displayed on the screen was a cross-section of the ocean floor showing a wavy line representing the ocean's surface and a lower one that was the sea bottom. The continental shelf dropped off sharply. At the edge of the shelf was a thick fault that angled down. The fault intersected a variegated line that represented the methane-hydrate deposit under the limestone crust.
"There's our trouble spot. Show us what happens when methane hydrates are released." A methane plume rose from the ocean floor. The sea bottom along the slope of the continental shelf collapsed. A depression occurred in the water surface where the landslide occurred. The surface of the water cratered above the slide.
The water tried to stabilize, creating a bump that moved along the ocean surface.
"There's the genesis of the big wave," Reed said.
"Let me try something," Yaeger said. "You heard what Dr. Jenkins said about the Richter scale reading at that location. Please give us a simulation of what happened."
Ripples that represented waves began to travel out from the area immediately around the slide. Max zoomed in on the wave heading for Rocky Point. When the moving arc was close to shore, the close-up of Rocky Point enlarged to fill the whole screen. The wave could be seen rolling into the harbor, onto the shore and up the river.
Without being asked, Max split the screen showing the side view displaying the profile of the wave. The tsunami grew as it approached land, morphed into a giant watery claw, and crashed down on the sleepy harbor. There was silence in the room as Max repeated the scene again and again in fast and slow motion.
Yaeger swiveled in his chair and said, "Comments, gentlemen?"
"We've established effect," Jenkins said. "The big question is whether the cause was man-made."
"It's happened before," Reed said. "Remember what I said about a drill platform's collapsing after accidentally releasing a plume."
"Max, I know you've worked hard, but I wonder if you could do me a favor."
"Of course, Dr. Jenkins."
"Thank you. Go back to your map of the East Coast and show us weak spots similar to those off Maine."
The map appeared again with pulsating bull's-eyes of varying sizes. The biggest were off the New England coast, New Jersey, Washington, Charleston and Miami.
"Max, please simulate what would happen if the
continental shelf collapsed at the major intersections with methane-hydrate deposits."
Within an instant, waves rippled out from the larger epicenters, reaching a height of thirty feet, hitting the coast and flowing into bays and up rivers and far onto land.
Reed's eyes blinked rapidly behind the thick lenses. "Good-bye Boston, New York, Washington, Charleston and Miami.”
"Meth is death," Yaeger said softly. Seeing the puzzled faces of the older men, he explained, "It's an old hippie saying, meant to warn people of the dangers of using methamphetamines to get high."
Reed said, "This is worse than any drug, my friend." Jenkins cleared his throat. "There was something I didn't mention." He told them about the encounter with the huge ship the same day as the Rocky Point tsunami.
"It sounds as if you think the ship had something to do with the landslide and the tsunami," Yaeger said.
Jenkins nodded.
"Were there any markings on it?"
"Yes, as a matter of fact. The ship was registered in Liberia, as a lot of them are, and the name on the hull was Ataman Explorer I. I checked the dictionary. It means the head man of a bunch of Cossacks."
"Ataman? Are you sure?"
"Yes, does the name ring a bell?"
"Possibly. How long are you in Washington, Dr. Jenkins?" Yaeger asked.
"I don't know. As long as I have to be I guess. Why?"
Yaeger rose from his chair. "I've got a couple of people I want you to meet."
27
THE SUNLIGHT STREAMING through the tinted floor-to-ceiling window washed the sharp features of Admiral James Sandecker in a sea-green patina that made , his face look like a bronze bust of Father Neptune. From his office on the top floor of NUMA headquarters, he had an unparalleled view of official Washington. He stood at the window, in thought, his authoritative blue eyes sweeping the city, taking in the White House, the tall spire of the Washington Monument and the dome of the Capitol, as if he were a hawk searching for its prey.
Austin had spent most of the morning filling Sandecker in on the events in the Black Sea. The admiral had been fascinated by the description of the sub pen, and intrigued at the meeting with Petrov and the Odessa Star link to Lord Dodson, whom he had met. Occasionally, he asked a question to clarify or offer a theory of his own. But he listened in stony silence, tugging at his precisely trimmed red Vandyke beard, when Austin told him about the massacre aboard the Sea Hunter. At the end of the grisly narrative, he rose from his desk without a word and walked over to gaze out the window. After a few moments, he turned to Austin and Gunn, who sat in leather chairs in front of the desk, and said, "In all my days as a navy commander, I never lost a ship or its crew.
Damned if I'm about to start now, This son of a bitch and his friend Razov are not going to get away with the massacre of an entire NUMA crew."
The temperature in the room seemed to drop twenty degrees.
Sandecker came over and settled behind his desk. "How is Ms. Montague, the young lady who survived the attack?”
"She's tough," Austin said, "She insisted on staying aboard the ship while the replacement crew brings the Sea Hunter back to port."
"Make sure I see the young lady on her return."
"I'll do that," Austin said, "What's the latest from the CIA?"
Sandecker reached into the humidor on his desk, pulled out a cigar and lit it, "The CIA is barking up the wrong tree, the FBI is skeptical and the armed forces aren't much good unless you point them in the right direction and give them marching orders. The secretary of state doesn't return my phone calls."
"What about the White House?"
"The president is sympathetic and concerned, of course. But I can't help thinking there is a bit of glee among some of his Cabinet, a hint that the massacre was justified retribution for sticking our nose in where it doesn't belong, They are angry that NUMA rescued the NR-1 crew."
"What difference does it make who rescued the crew, long as it was rescued?" Austin said in frustration.
Sandecker puffed out a plume of smoke that temporarily enveloped his head in a purple cloud. "I assume that was I rhetorical question, because you're much too savvy in the ways of this city. You know that gratitude simply does not exist inside the Beltway. We've stolen their thunder, and they resent that."
Gunn sighed. "That's pretty much the scuttlebutt I've heard. There's even criticism behind our back that our 'bungling' is the reason that the captain and pilot are still missing with the sub."
"Nice of us to provide an excuse for the incompetence of other agencies," Sandecker said. "But I'm afraid it means NUMA is on its own when it comes to the Sea Hunter business. Any lead on this man, Boris?"
"He's a will-o'-the-wisp," Austin said. "Our best chance is to concentrate on Razov. At last report, his yacht had left the Black Sea, and we're trying to track it down."
"We're going to have to do better," Sandecker said. Sandecker's intercom beeped softly, and the voice of his secretary came on.
"I know you're in conference, Admiral, but Mr. Yaeger is here with two other gentlemen and he says it's urgent that they see you."
"Send them in, please," Sandecker said. A moment later, the office door opened and Yaeger came in, followed by the diminutive Dr. Reed and a stranger. Sandecker had spent too much time on the water not to recognize Jenkins as a fisherman, especially after they shook hands and he felt the barnacle-hard calluses.
He greeted them warmly and told the men to pull up chairs. "Well, Hiram, what brings you out of your sanctum sanctorum?"
"I think Dr. Jenkins can explain it better than I can." Jenkins was nervous at being in the presence of the legendary director of NUMA. But once he started to talk, he hit his stride. When Jenkins finished his saga, Reed gave his opinion as a geochemist. Finally, Yaeger pitched in, passing around printouts of the diagrams Max had projected onto the screen. Sandecker sat back in his chair, tenting his fingers, his eyes alert to every nuance.
When they were through with their presentation, he tapped his intercom. "Please see if Dr. Wilkins can come up from the Geology Department."
Dr. Elwood Wilkins arrived a few minutes later. He was I slim, reserved midwesterner who looked like one of those movie character actors who always played the kindly pharmacist or family doctor. Sandecker pulled over another chair close to his desk. He passed Wilkins the printouts and gave the geologist a few minutes to study them. Wilkins finished reading the material and looked up.
Sandecker answered the question in the scientist's eyes. "These gentlemen have suggested that it is possible for the edge of the continental shelf along the East Coast to cave in, creating destructive tsunamis. While I value their opinion, it a never hurts to hear from a disinterested observer. What do d you think?”
Wilkins smiled. "Oh, I don't think there's any danger of the Atlantic City Boardwalk being washed into the sea."
Sandecker raised an eyebrow.
"But," Wilkins added, "there is new research which indicates that what they suggest is not at all far-fetched. The d rock under the overlying layer of the continental shelf is quite waterlogged. If the pressure exerted by the sea bottom reached a critical state, the water would squeeze out. It's as if you stepped on a balloon. The blowout could cause landslides that deform the water and send giant waves toward the shore. Some of my colleagues at Penn State University have run computer models demonstrating that the possibility is very real."
"These slides would have to be triggered by a quake?” Sandecker said.
"A quake could do it, most certainly."
"Could it happen on the East Coast?” Gunn asked.
Wilkins tapped the sheaf of printouts in his hand. "This material pretty much spells it out. The continental shelf runs the full length of the coast. In several places along its slope are big cracks and craters where the potential for landslides is greater."
"Could a slide be caused by something other than a quake?” Gunn said.
"It could happen spontaneously. I'm sorry I can't
be more specific. This is a whole new area of science."
"I was thinking of a release of methane hydrate."
"Why not? If the hydrate layer is destabilized, sure, the whole shooting match could come tumbling down and set off your giant waves."
Sandecker could see Wilkins's lips about to form a question. He cut the discussion short. "Thank you, Doctor. You've been a great help, as always." He ushered Wilkins to the door, patted him on the back and thanked him again. Returning to the others, he said, "I hope you weren't insulted at my bringing Dr. Wilkins in. I wanted to hear from an independent source."
"From what we heard," Gunn said, "I'd say there's a pretty good case here that Razov has discovered how to cause a tsunami. The wave that struck the Maine coast was a dry run, if you'll excuse the expression. If we're correct in our assumption, he's somehow capable of causing enormous destruction."
“The Ataman Explorer is the key," Austin said. "We've got to find her."
"We'll have to do more," Sandecker said with quiet urgency. "We've got to get aboard that ship!"
28
ROCKY POINT, MAINE
BEFORE THE BIG wave had hit, Rocky Point had been the quintessential rock-ribbed Maine town, its picturesque harbor and neat clapboard-and-shingle houses appearing in countless calendars. The tidy Main Street could have come from a Frank Capra movie. But as Jenkins's boat moved out of the harbor, Austin gazed back toward land and thought that the town now looked like one of those pictures where the viewer was challenged to detect the mistakes. Plenty was wrong with this picture.
The waterfront lobster restaurants, the fish pier and the controversial motel were gone, and all that was left were pilings that jutted from the water like bad teeth. Spherical Day-Glo warning buoys bobbed on the water to mark sunken wrecks. Cranes clawed away at the wreckage of boats on shore. Debris of every kind swirled in the Kestrel's wake.
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