by Ian Miller
"Why?" Gaius asked simply. "Why should I be interested in their pointless discussions?"
"Because you live here now," Vipsania said calmly. "You would at least show an interest in something that you could be expected to be interested in."
"And waste a day listening to bleats from Ulsians who sit on their arses here rather than do something."
"Show that you care about the planet that's going out of its way to keep us alive," Vipsania replied calmly.
"All right!" Gaius interrupted. "You have a point. I still think it's a waste of time, but . . ."
The party went to one meeting, the Tin Man providing a continuous translation of what was being said. Gaius carefully refrained from speaking, and as they left the meeting that afternoon, in front of two important Ulsians, the Tin Man asked Gaius what he thought of the meeting.
"Interesting," Gaius lied.
"Then we shall attend another tomorrow," the Tin Man said firmly.
So the next day, the Tin Man took them to another meeting, this one about the war, and one that was definitely gloomy in nature, eventually reaching the conclusion, as translated to Gaius, that there was nothing Ulse could do except manufacture furiously, face the enemy with everything they had, and pray.
"Bullshit!" Gaius exclaimed. "This is simply . . ."
There was a noise from the meeting.
"The meeting wishes me to translate," the Tin Man said flatly. "They want to know what you think."
"Translate as, Gaius does not agree," Vipsania said quickly.
"Good idea!" the Tin Man said. There was more toing and froing, then the Tin Man said to Gaius, "They want to know what you think they should do."
"Be careful!" Vipsania insisted.
"Tell them that I have a certain amount of difficulty there because I am not sufficiently familiar with the current situation," Gaius said, acknowledging Vipsania's comment.
The Tin Man began translating while Gaius was still thinking of the most diplomatic way to continue. There was a short response that was translated as, "Then why do you think you have something to offer?"
"There are some principles that always apply . . ." Gaius began, then found himself listening to a translation. He continued, and to his surprise, there were polite acknowledgements, and encouragement to continue. Then, one of those present said something else in an agitated way, which met with concerned responses from the others.
"The first comment translates roughly as 'Bullshit!'" the Tin Man said to Gaius, who immediately burst out laughing. There were some horrified looks from the meeting, then more relieved looks as the Tin Man explained that laughter meant that Gaius felt it was funny, not insulting. "The first comment also was along the lines that the enemy have defeated us too many times. There is nothing more we can do, other than fight back, but it's a lost cause. The others objected to that view. They want a response."
"Once upon a time," Gaius began, "Rome was being pillaged by an enemy led by a great general named Hannibal. Rome suffered the most awful defeats, and everybody expected Rome to lose, because as this meeting seems to think, there seemed to be nothing else to do but to fight on, and the record was poor. Nevertheless, the Roman senate decided that something more positive had to be done. So they selected their most innovative general, Publius Cornelius Scipio, gave him some legions, and sent him to fight on the opponent's land. In the subsequent battle of Zarma, Scipio found a way to neutralize Hannibal's prime weapon, the elephants, by getting his troops to polish their shields, and for the trumpeters to make terrible noises. This worked, even though nobody had ever used those tactics, and eventually he defeated Hannibal, even though nearly every other battle had been lost."
There were numerous discussions, and eventually the word came back to Gaius that that they thanked him, but such primitive warfare was outside the current topic.
"The principle is what matters," Gaius said. "You have to find leaders who can do innovative things, leaders who can recognize the weaknesses in their opponents, and still do something about them. The issue's not about which weapons you use, but whether your leaders have the ability to detect the weaknesses in your opponent's campaign, and then do something about it."
There were yet more discussions, and when the meeting was over, Gaius was invited to return, but the Tin Man declined, saying that Gaius was being introduced to the views of a wide range of committees, a statement that these Ulsians accepted with wise nods.
Gaius attended several further meetings, and the general theme, if there was one, was that the Ulsians considered him irrelevant, and he considered them too inactive, and too defeatist. Finally, at one meeting he could no longer contain himself, and when asked what he thought should be done, bearing in mind he had no knowledge whatsoever of the Ulsian military, he jumped to his feet and said, "Anything! Find a leader, get out there, and start fighting! You haven't a hope of winning by sitting in meetings!"
There was a stunned silence, then there was a barrage of Ulsian comments, then one stood up, said something as he pointed to Gaius, then there was a stunned silence.
"You could translate," Gaius said flatly.
"Most of them thought you were a blood-thirsty barbarian," the Tin Man said, "but the last one said that perhaps that was what Ulse actually needed right now."
"Tell them," Gaius said calmly, "I don't like the spilling of unnecessary blood, but you can't fight a war unless you're prepared to kill, and you can't win unless you eventually take the initiative."
This was translated, and there were immediate flurries of conversation.
"Some agree, some don't," the Tin Man translated, "but there is starting to be a consensus that Ulse does need to take the initiative."
"And presumably they will call more meetings to decide how to take the initiative," Gaius said scathingly.
"Of course they will," the Tin Man said, "but some have gone further."
"They're going to join the army?" Gaius asked.
"Not that far," the Tin Man conceded. "However, they see the need to raise morale, to make it more desirable for other Ulsians to consider joining the military. They are going to make available programs on famous Ulsian battles."
"I suppose that's better than nothing," Gaius admitted.
The Tin Man translated this in a far more favourable way, then, after some Ulsian conversation, turned to Gaius and said, "In honour of you, they have even offered to make some programs of battles from your planet. They will even do one of yours, if you like."
"What do I have to do?" Gaius asked.
"Nothing," the Tin Man said. "It is better that I provide the information, then everyone will know that the information is unbiased."
"I see," Gaius said. "You realize that Timothy didn't see everything, and sometimes didn't see much at all?"
"I shall use my imagination," the Tin Man said, a remark that temporarily stunned Gaius, as he did not expect the Tin Man to ever take an initiative. "I shall do your battle in Syria from your own accounts."
Chapter 13
The next lesson in sociodynamics began with an exercise. "Imagine yourself back in Rome" the droid said. "Think about what you might want in your day? Think about wanting what you need, such as food, clothes . . ."
"We had enough money that we just get these," Lucilla noted.
"Of course," the droid said. "Think of those as easily filled wants, for you absolutely need them, but they are not a problem. Now, because they are very easy to get, think of these as having a very low social potential. There's no effort required to get them. Agreed?"
"That's what I said," Lucilla said.
"So, now think about taking some away. Suppose lightning strikes and destroys some. Does it matter?"
"It's irritating, having to fix the pantry," Gaius noted.
"Now if someone steals them, that might make you angry?"
"Probably," Gaius agreed.
"That's because your pride is injured," the droid said. "Now, from that you see that for rich Romans the remo
ving of this food is not important, but your response varies according to how it is taken. So, you see, the same qualitative action does not necessarily engender the same social force. Now, back to your day in Rome. Think about entertainment, how you work, and so on."
"So?" Gaius asked curiously.
"Now, imagine yourself, say, as a Celtic peasant. Your land has just been invaded, you've lost your land, your sister has been taken away as a slave to be used by some Roman . . ."
"I've already conceded that slavery is wrong," Gaius interrupted sourly.
"That's not the point!" the droid said firmly. "What we have to establish is what you would feel about this. You see, in Rome, property and security were not issues, but for the Celt they might be. How would you feel?"
"He'd be angry!" Lucilla offered.
"Now, anger can lead to revolt," the droid said. "You are at one potential, you feel you should be at another, so there's a social force at work."
"But not all the Celts revolt," Gaius said, "in fact some joined us."
"Because you applied another social force," the droid noted. "You gave the ones that joined you security, and left them with their property, while you also introduced yet another potential by promising extreme punishment for anyone who does revolt. So you see, in the normal course of events, with a choice of revolting or not revolting, there is a considerable preference for swallowing your pride at being invaded and joining the conquerors."
"But not everybody does that," Gaius pointed out. "The man whose daughter was raped, say . . ."
"There may be some personal forces that over-ride the more rational ones," the droid agreed, "but that suggests that the conqueror gains by being reasonable, so the example has benefit in that it guides future action."
"But there're so many possibilities that there's no way of knowing . . ." Lucilla started to protest.
"Indeed!" the droid enthused. "That is what makes it so interesting."
"You would probably need an enormous number of committee meetings to reach a conclusion," Lucilla scowled.
"Possibly," the droid said, "but instead of criticizing, why not get involved? Why not criticize after you know more about it?"
Lucilla had to acknowledge there was no good answer to this, so she nodded agreement, albeit totally without enthusiasm.
Over the next few weeks they accumulated a wide range of information, and eventually they were all given a hypothetical test problem. A civilization more developed than the Romans had expanded over a planet, developed industrialization powered by fossil fuels, then the easily available supplies began to run out. The prices would rise to the point where most citizens could not afford them, however a major drop in consumption merely made their lives much more difficult, thus making governance extremely difficult, and also putting extreme power in the hands of different sources: economic power in the hands of the rich and the resource holders, military power in the hands of a very few governments of the largest countries, technology in the hands of a few limited organizations, etc. The initial exercise was to make some attempt at predicting what would happen next.
"But surely that depends on whether the military power resides in the same place as the resources?" Gaius protested.
"And it might occur to you that that issue might appropriately be part of your answer?" the droid replied calmly. "Why don't you stop protesting and arguing the rules, and get started?"
"So I can have more than one answer?" Gaius asked.
"You should most certainly have more than one option in your answer," the droid said. "The more precise initial conditions are most important, as you have correctly observed, but part of the exercise is for you to use your imagination, and the other information you have acquired, and try to get as many sets of likely initial conditions down."
The problem with this as an exercise, Lucilla noted later, was that it was rather hard work, but even she had to admit it addressed the issue of boredom, even if the question of doing so in an interesting fashion was less well addressed. Eventually their answers were handed in, and the droid read them with disconcerting speed.
"Look at that," the droid said with pleasure in his tone. "Your options are more or less what happened on several planets. So you see, there is predictive power."
"That's already happened," Gaius pointed out. "I've hardly predicted anything."
"It might have happened," the droid agreed, "but you didn't know the outcomes."
"Yes, but there were several outcomes. Why is that?"
"Because of the fundamental uncertainty," the droid said, "and before you get too excited and declare this a waste of time, remember your quantum mechanics? There you have an Uncertainty Principle, which tells you at a specific time you cannot precisely tell what the energy is, but nevertheless you can calculate energies integrated over enough time with the remarkable precision needed to drive our advanced motors."
"So?" Gaius asked curiously.
"So you can calculate despite uncertainty."
"Yes, but you get one energy, and you don't get one outcome from . . ."
"So why don't you get one answer?" the droid asked. "Why do you get unique solutions for, say, energy in mechanics?"
"From what I've learned," Gaius frowned, "it's because energy is conserved. If you . . ."
"Exactly correct," the droid said. "Do you remember why?"
"Because mechanics does not depend explicitly on time?"
"Quite correct. If I do an experiment to measure an energy today, I shall get the same answer tomorrow. The moon on your planet will not suddenly change its energy tomorrow and crash down onto your planet. Because the energy does not depend explicitly on time, it must be conserved."
"And momentum is conserved because the equations are the same if you move the positions?" Gaius asked.
"Exactly. Now, you remember your introduction to quantum physics. Remember how we told you the void is a bit like Aristotle's substratum, with tiny entities coming to be and passing away all within an incredibly short space of time?"
"Yes."
"Well, think about it. Suppose you have a particle, and something that exerts a force on it suddenly comes to be beside it. It must change its energy if it exerts a new force on it, correct?"
"Yes," Gaius agreed. There seemed to be little point in disagreeing.
"And since that which came to be could be attractive or repulsive, you have no idea even of the sign of the energy change. Agreed?"
Again, as he wondered where this was going, Gaius agreed
"And suppose it is in motion, and this thing comes to be right in front of it so that it bangs into it? It's going to slow down, right?"
"Yes."
"You see what has happened?" the droid said in a calm tone, and to save Gaius having to answer, it continued, "If the motion does not depend explicitly on the nature of the space or time, that is, they are essentially homogeneous, you have conservation of momentum and energy. The conservation of angular momentum, as you will no doubt remember, comes from the fact that motion does not depend explicitly on the orientation of the experiment. Now, when there are random comings to be and passings away, there is, at the level at which this happens, uncertainty. If it is restricted to the quantum level, you have the Uncertainty Principle, and the basics of quantum mechanics. Because these comings to be and passings away average out over longer times and distances, when you reach these longer times and distances you get your conservation laws, and in physics these allow you to get unique solutions.
"In sociodynamics, one piece of time is not the same as another. Think about Rome? If you wanted to go between Rome and Pompeii, it would take very much longer before the road was built. The road changes everything relating to the movement of goods, agreed?"
"Of course!"
"You could not have invaded Britain successfully before you conquered Gaul?"
"Of course not."
"If you needed to make steel weapons, there is a limit to how many you can make, because a miner can onl
y mine so much iron in a day, a forester can only make so much charcoal a day, and you can only smelt so much in one place at a time. Once industrialization takes place, these limits are multiplied enormously, so the equations for what you can do depend critically on to what part of the history of our civilization they are applied. Everything is much more complicated and instead of getting unique answers, you get a multiplicity of options. With no unique solutions, your planet can develop in many ways."
"And there's no way of knowing whether they are going to develop sufficiently that we can go back," Gaius said sadly.
"No, but look at it from another point of view. Because things change, and because there are a number of changes required, the probability of your planet being adequate increases as time passes."
"Unfortunately," Gaius smiled, "I can't live forever."
"No, you can't," the droid agreed, "but you can chew through as many centuries as you need to."
Gaius suddenly looked up with more interest. "You mean space travel?"
"Exactly. Travel at relativistic speed for a few hundred light years, and you dispose of a few centuries."
"I doubt anyone is going to give me space ship just to chew through light years," Gaius smiled.
"That is true," the droid said, "but there is another way."
"There is?" By now Gaius was curious.
"Ulse is as war," the droid pointed out. "There are going to be a great number of ships going great distances. This is a unique time to chew up centuries, if you have any military capability."
"I think mine's a little out of date," Gaius smiled.
"In detail, but in terms of principle? If you can persuade the authorities you have something to offer, you can always be taught the detail."
"So you think I should take more interest in the Ulsian military?"
"And in sociodynamics," the droid challenged.
