by Dietmar Wehr
“I’m afraid so, Sir.” There was something about her tone of voice that made Janicot wonder if she was holding back something important. Sorensen jumped in before he could ask what that something was. She was clearly agitated again.
“Is it just me or does it seem like we can’t win this war with Majestic calling the shots on their side?” Her voice hinted that she was on the ragged edge of tears.
Janicot didn’t like being distracted by Sorensen’s question, but maybe he could use it to pry open whatever secrets Foster seemed to be holding back.
“It’s not just you, Madam Secretary. Major, am I right in thinking that you have something you want to add to this briefing…something that didn’t originate from P2?” asked Janicot. The change in Foster’s expression told Janicot that he had made the right guess.
“As a matter of fact there is, Sir, but I’m not sure how well you’re going to like it.”
“Let’s hear it, Major, and don’t hold anything back. If you have an idea, bring it forward no matter how crazy you think it may sound, understand?”
“Yessir.” Foster took another deep breath while she collected her thoughts. “If we approach this war like a chess game, we’ll lose unless we get very lucky. Majestic will calculate the best counter-strategy to our counter-strategy, and it’s sophisticated enough to think many moves ahead. It will therefore outthink our Super-Oracle every time, and the FEDs are counting on us to continue using P2. My staff and I therefore believe that we should stop using our Super-Oracle to plan our strategy and only use it to predict the FED’s counter-moves. If we set up a planning group that can brainstorm ideas, then P2 can evaluate them from the enemy’s point of view. That will help us avoid the really bad ideas and concentrate on the best ones. This planning group should be encouraged to think unconventionally. The more we can get away from rational, logical strategies, the less likely it’ll be that Majestic will be able to anticipate our moves and defend against it. To use the chess analogy again, what we need to aim for is equivalent to sacrificing the Queen in order to put the opposite side in a position where it can’t win no matter what it does.”
Janicot held up his hand to prevent her from continuing. “But won’t Majestic see that outcome and try to avoid it?”
“Well, my analogy does leave something to be desired, but to answer your question in a more general way, we need a situation where we either win the war outright or at least inflict a severe setback to the enemy regardless of whether they ‘take our Queen’ or not. The planning group’s challenge will be to figure out how to engineer that kind of a situation.”
Janicot nodded. Sorensen seemed to understand too. “Okay, Major, what’s the next step,” said Janicot.
Foster was ready for that question. “My current staff members are good at translating P2’s recommendations into actions, but coming up with strategic ideas is not their strong suit. Since most of the strategic ideas will involve ships, I’d like to recruit some of our naval officers for the new planning group.” Foster saw a small smile cross Janicot’s face.
Oh, thank you, Major Foster. Assigning Drake to the planning group won’t look like punishment, but it’ll make Lee happy, and you’ll get an experienced combat officer for a while.
“If you have specific individuals in mind, Major, I’ll consider them, but I think Commander Drake would be perfect for this group.”
Now it was Foster’s turn to smile. “I was going to request Commander Drake anyway, Sir.”
“Good! What about your husband, SubCommander Murphy?” Janicot was surprised when Foster shook her head.
“Ah…Bret is already working on the Site X and shipbuilding projects, Admiral, and he’s off planet at the moment.”
“Ah, I see. You can have Commander Drake immediately. Let me know who else you’d like to have in the group. I want this planning group to generate some results quickly, Major. Think you can do that?”
“We’ll do our best, Admiral.”
“In that case, I’ll leave you to it. You’re dismissed. I think Secretary Sorensen and I have some things to discuss, and this is as good a place to discuss them as any.”
“Yessir.” Foster quickly got up and left. She was anxious to get the planning group set up and operating. As Janicot watched her leave, he couldn’t help wondering once again if she was hiding something. That nagging feeling just wouldn’t go away. He’d have to worry about that later. Right now he had a depressed Defense Secretary to cheer up.
Chapter Ten:
Day 71/2546
Drake let himself fall into the chair in the tiny cubicle that was assigned to him while he was part of the planning group. He was tired after another brainstorming session with ideas that were getting more and more bizarre as time went on. So far, all of the ideas examined by the Super-Oracle had resulted in FED counter-moves that were nothing short of disastrous. He closed his eyes and leaned back so that his head was touching the wall behind him. After a few seconds he heard a knock on the open door. When he opened his eyes, he saw Major Foster standing in the doorway with a sympathetic look on her face.
“I know exactly how you feel, Commander. The group seems to be spinning its wheels without moving forward.”
“I can’t help thinking that we’re missing something. What are we missing?” asked Drake.
Foster shook her head and shrugged. “Beats the hell outta me. There are only so many planets that our ships could attack or defend. It feels like we’ve examined all those possibilities. So far, the roll-the-dice attack on Earth is still the least bad option on the table.”
“Yes, and I meant to ask you about that one-chance-in-four result. Who did P2 assume would be in command of our fleet?”
Foster thought for a moment and said, “No one in particular. It assumed an average tactical capability because we don’t have enough data on each potential leader’s tactical skill level to be able to make a reliable choice.”
Drake smiled. “Then we need to find out by running a series of simulations in which every flag officer and ship CO will be evaluated. With a little luck, at least one officer will stand out from the rest. That’s got to improve our chances.” He noticed that Foster’s eyes widened.
“Yes, of course. This is exactly why we needed navy people in the group. We Army types just don’t think in terms of naval tactical skill. It’s almost a foreign concept to us. I’ll recommend the simulation project to the CSO immediately.” Before Drake could say anything, Foster had turned around and left.
It took three days to set up the simulations. The equipment was borrowed from the Naval Officers School, and only one officer could be tested at a time. The Super-Oracle commanded the FED ships. Luckily, all Union warships were still in orbit around or on Sparta, so all commanding officers were tested over the following five days. Of the twenty-five officers of at least Commander rank, Drake’s performance put him fourth in terms of ranking. His only consolation was that he beat Vice-Admiral Lee, who came in 10th. As Drake looked at the results on the main display in the simulation room, he sensed Foster come up to stand beside him.
“P2 reran its calculations assuming that our number one ranked officer commanded our side, and the odds only improved slightly, from 1 in 4 to 1 in 3.5.”
She heard Drake sigh. “I could have told you that ahead of time, Cate, because nobody actually won the simulated battle. P2 came out ahead every single time.” After a pause he said, “I wonder…”
Foster shook her head in annoyance. She hated it when people started but didn’t finish a sentence. “You wonder what?”
Drake shrugged. “I was just wondering if the defense is so effective because P2 is commanding that side of things. In a real battle, a fallible human being will be commanding the FED fleet. Maybe we should run the simulations again the other way around, with humans defending Earth against a fleet commanded by P2.”
“It can’t hurt to try, but there’s no sense in testing everyone. Let’s just test the top six officers.”
> Twenty-four hours later they stopped the simulations after testing only the top three. The computer beat all three. Even Foster was shocked.
“It’s too bad we couldn’t put P2 in command of our fleet,” she said to Drake who was sitting nearby.
“Who says we can’t? How much space does that beast take up?”
Forster checked and shook her head. “None of our ships are anywhere close to being big enough to house a Phase II Oracle.”
“Okay, what if we go back to the Phase I version?” asked Drake.
Foster crunched some more numbers. “Well, available space is still running short, but not by much. If we stripped a ship of all equipment that wasn’t essential to maneuvering, hyper-jumping and combat, there theoretically might be enough room, but we’d literally have a ship where a mouse couldn’t move around inside. I don’t see that being realistically workable.”
“What if we take out all missile tubes and missile storage?”
After crunching some more numbers, Foster said, “That’s beginning to look more doable, but it would mean the fleet as a whole would be weaker, and our side didn’t win by a wide margin in those last three simulations.”
Drake thought about that for a bit and said, “Can we shut down those components that were added in Phase II and test the remaining machine in command of a slightly reduced fleet against our best CO?”
“Yes, we can do that. I’ll set it up.”
The test was quite revealing. Oracle used the same overall tactical plan that worked before, but the reduced firepower of the Union fleet wasn’t enough to defeat the FED fleet. At Drake’s urging, they ran the same simulation two more times. The result was two FED wins and one SSU ‘win’. Drake shook his head. The SSU win was marginal at best. One Union ship was left, but it was too badly damaged to conduct any operations against Earth or even return to Sparta. To his mind, it was actually a draw. Assuming more ships would be available wasn’t the answer either. If the SSU had time to build more ships, so did the FEDs. He and Foster were now sitting in her office.
“I thought we might have been on to something, but apparently not,” she said in a dejected voice.
Drake was too busy thinking to reply right away. When he did, he said, “Would P2 consider a strategy where we deliberately tried to lose a battle?”
Foster frowned. “Not on its own. Only if we told it to.” Before she could ask why, Drake interjected.
“What about Majestic? Would it consider that kind of strategy on its own do you think?”
Foster hesitated. “I don’t really know. Maybe. Why?”
“I have an idea. I’d like you to tell P2 to run another strategic projection given the following assumptions. First, Makassar’s industrial capacity is completely destroyed. Second, our fleet is destroyed during an attack on Earth that leaves the FED fleet mostly intact. I’m willing to bet that P2 will predict that the FEDs will quickly follow up that battle with an attack on Sparta.”
“I know we want them to attack Sparta and be defeated, but that strategy assumed that we’d have ships left to threaten Earth and drive home to them how vulnerable they are, so that they’re more willing to negotiate a peace treaty. But if our fleet is destroyed too, I don’t see the advantage of doing that.”
“The advantage is that the FEDS will be back to square one in terms of both shipbuilding and fleet size.”
“So will we,” said Foster.
Drake shook his head. “Not exactly. We’ll still have plenty of missile boats for defense, unlike in the beginning when we only had one, and our shipyards on the member planets will still have partially finished ships, whereas back then no ships were under construction. We’ll also have started work on our backup shipyard facility, while the FEDs will have to begin building up Makassar all over again. That means that their shipbuilding surge won’t start for years. In the meantime, we’ll be building ships faster than they will, and we can use that to keep hitting Makassar. If our R&D starts to kick in, then we’ll have numerical AND qualitative advantages. If we can’t shock FED politicians into suing for peace, then we’ll just wear them down with defeat after defeat, but it all depends on throwing them off balance. We have to make them think they’ve got us by the balls, or they won’t commit their entire fleet.”
“There’s just one problem with that scenario. A lot of our people will have to die on our ships when they’re destroyed.”
Drake smiled and shook his head. “Not if those ships are all controlled remotely by an Oracle-type computer.”
After a few seconds of silence, she said, “You know…that just might work, but it’s going to be tough to convince the CSO, SecDef and the Chancellor to sacrifice our existing fleet.”
“I hope so. If they tell us we’re crazy, then I’ll be a lot more reassured that Majestic won’t consider that strategy, because it’s too irrational. But before we jump to conclusions, we should have P2 game it out.”
“Yes, you’re right. One Queen sacrifice gambit simulation coming up.”
Seventeen hours later, Drake and Foster were seated in Janicot’s office.
“Are you people crazy?” asked Janicot. Drake and Foster looked at each other with barely concealed grins.
“I don’t think so, Admiral. P2 has confirmed our suspicions that if the FED fleet wins the battle for Earth with only minor losses, then there’ll be a lot of pressure on General Trojan to launch an immediate attack on Sparta, even if Majestic doesn’t come to the same conclusion, although P2 thinks it will,” said Foster.
“I know but…those 16 ships represent a lot of resources, credits and effort. It goes against the grain to throw them away like that. What if we only send 10 or 12 ships?”
Both Drake and Foster shook their heads. Drake responded. “We tested that scenario. The FEDs know we have a minimum of 16 ships. If we send less, Majestic will assume we’re holding a strategic reserve back, and the odds of an immediate retaliatory strike on Sparta drop to less than even money. Majestic has to believe that we risked everything on a roll-of-the-dice gamble. In poker parlance, they have to think that we went all in.”
“Even though I see the logic of it, or rather the illogic of it, I still have trouble accepting the concept on a gut level. Convincing the Secretary of Defense is going to be hard enough, but convincing the Chancellor…” Janicot noticed that Drake and Foster were smiling again. “What’s so damned funny?”
Drake told him, and Janicot managed to smile too. “I see your point, Commander. If the idea was less bizarre, Majestic would be more likely to anticipate it, but what if that goddamned machine does anticipate it?”
Drake let Foster field that one. “It may not matter, Admiral. Majestic can’t know for certain that we’re setting them up. It might suspect that as a possibility, and if so, it’ll calculate a probability. But P2’s assessment is that Majestic will also calculate a relatively high probability that we really did roll the dice and lost. Regardless of what Majestic comes up with, it’s going to be very hard for General Trojan and his superiors to resist the natural military inclination to sound the charge when it looks like we’ve made a fatal miscalculation and are vulnerable.”
“I know you talked about the equivalent of sacrificing our Queen, but I had no idea it would be this painful. This plan is going to make me lose a lot of sleep. But as much as I hate to admit it, this looks like our best shot of actually winning this war. I’ll set up a briefing for both SecDef and the Chancellor at the same time.” Janicot pointed his finger at Foster. “You’re the one who’s going to have to sell them on this plan, Major, and I want you there too, Commander.”
After both acknowledged his order, they briefly chatted about less important things, and then Janicot dismissed them. Drake and Foster spent the rest of the day polishing her presentation.
The meeting with Secretary of Defense Sorensen and Chancellor Belloc plus CSO Janicot didn’t take place until mid-afternoon of the next day. It was held in the conference room next to the Chancellor’s o
ffice. Belloc sat at the end of the oval table, with Janicot on his left and Sorensen on his right. Foster and Drake sat at the opposite end of the table.
“I’m anxious to hear about this radical new strategic plan that Admiral Janicot refuses to give any hints about, Major Foster. You may begin,” said Belloc.
“Thank you, Chancellor. I will sum up this new strategic plan in one sentence, after which I’ll go into the details. If this plan succeeds the way that our Phase II Oracle predicts, it will reset the entire strategic situation back to what the original expectation was on the day that the SSU took over FED assets. You’ll recall that, at that point in time, it was hoped that the FEDs wouldn’t find out about the SSU for at least six and perhaps as many as nine months, which would give the Union a head start in building ships and other military assets. Unfortunately, the FEDs learned about the SSU much sooner, and they were able to identify and start work on their Makassar shipbuilding initiative long before we were able to start our own backup shipbuilding project.
