by Joel Garreau
a PhD . . . and an MBA: DARPA bio. http://www.darpa.mil
He has 15 patents: Ibid.
It makes it an interesting place: Rudolph interview, December 14, 2002.
computer eyes: See, for example, Erika Jonietz, “Demo: Artificial Retina: An Electronic Device Implanted in the Eye Could Restore the Sight of Millions,” Technology Review, September 2004. http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/04/09/demo0904.asp?p=1
Cyberkinetics: http://www.cyberkineticsinc.com
“Can you imagine traversing”: DeGay interview, June 25, 2003.
It would allow them to survive even without oxygen: Bielitzki presentation, DARPATech 2002, slide 10.
The Bioinspired Dynamic Robotics program: Per Alan Rudolph interview, July 12, 2003, predecessor program, Controlled Biological and Biomimetic Systems.
These include electronics: Goldblatt DARPATech 2002 presentation, slide 13, Mesoscopic Integrated Conformal Electronics (MICE) program description. http://www.darpa.mil
[living creatures] as “remote sentinels”: Goldblatt interview, July 11, 2003; program description. http://www.darpa.mil
The Brain-Machine Interface program: Alan Rudolph interview, July 11, 2003.
“that truly know what they’re doing”: Abstract of a talk presented by Ron Brachman, “Developing Cognitive Systems,” delivered May 3, 2004, at Sarnoff Corporation, Princeton, NJ, before the IEEE Signal Processing Society, Dr. Hui Cheng, organizer.
Time Reversal Methods: DARPA BAA03-02. http://www.darpa.mil
The bulk of DARPA’s projects: Goldblatt in Goldblatt and Wax interview, December 6, 2002.
“That’s Veterans Affairs”: Goldblatt interview, December 17, 2002. The Pentagon has been showing greatly increased interest in tissue regeneration since the flow of wounded from the Iraq war commenced, DARPA insiders report.
“we will be the first species to control our own evolution”: Amy Harmon, “Technology Elite Are Focusing Next on Human Body,” New York Times, June 16, 2003.
most common word you hear is fun: Goldblatt and Wax interview, December 6, 2002, and elsewhere.
“There’s potential for contradictions in all of science”: Bielitzki interview, December 19, 2002.
Chapter Three THE CURVE
When its orchards erupted into bloom: History San Jose. http://www.historysanjose.org/Valley.html
Since the 1920s, this area: M. Mitchell Waldrop, The Dream Machine: J. C. R. Licklider and the Revolution That Made Computing Personal (New York: Viking Penguin, 2001). ISBN: 0-670-89976-3, page 338.
Their first big customer was Walt Disney: Ibid.
referred to . . . as Silicon Valley: In January, 1971, a three-part series in Electronic News was entitled “Silicon Valley USA,” Ibid.
He was thoughtful and cautious: T. R. Reid, The Chip: How Two Americans Invented the Microchip and Launched a Revolution (New York: Random House, 1985). ISBN: 0-375-75828-3, page 8.
“He just looked so normal”: Interview, Howard I. High, July 3, 2003.
Sure enough, in 2002 . . . 27th doubling: George Gilder, “Moore’s Quantum Leap.” Wired, January 2002, page 104. http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/10.01/gilder _pr.html
from 23 miles to 2,808: Wil McCarthy, personal communication based on the research notes for his article “Runaway Train,” Wired, January 2002, page 103. http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/10.01/tracks_pr.html
It took another 36 years: The Railroad Museum of Pennsylvania, Railroad History Timeline, compiled by Kurt R. Bell, librarian/archivist. http://www.rrmuseumpa.org/education/historytimeline1.htm
Not for nothing do historians still celebrate the driving of the Golden Spike: See, for example, the Museum of the City of San Francisco. http://www.sfmuseum.org/ hist1/rail.html
A voyage to a new life cost 25 cents: I am indebted to Wil McCarthy for some of these observations.
The last transcontinental railroad: History Link: “Chicago, Milwaukee and St. Paul Railroad lays the last rail.” http://www.historylink.org/_output.cfm?file_ID=930
one millionth Model T: Joel Garreau, Edge City: Life on the New Frontier (New York: Doubleday 1991). ISBN: 0-385-26249-3, page 104.
you can get it for free: Even more impressive, in 2004, J.C. Penney offered a free DVD player—which is a computer and a laser—to anyone spending $100 at its stores on Father’s Day.
Passports come equipped: John Leyden, “U.S. Names the Day for Biometric Passports,” The Register, August 22, 2003. http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/55/31885.html
All for under $5: Evan I. Schwartz, “How You’ll Pay: Smart Cards, Radio Tags, And Microchip Buttons Are Going to Revolutionize the Way You Buy Things,” Technology Review, December 2002–January 2003, page 50. http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/02/12/schwartz1202.asp?p=0
The cost of shipping a ton of grain: Nathan Myhrvold, former technology chief of Microsoft, in an interview with MIT’s Technology Review, June 2002. http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/print_version/qa0602.asp
“the housewife will sit at home”: Jeffrey Zygmont, Microchip: An Idea, Its Genesis, and the Revolution It Created (New York: Perseus Publishing, 2003). ISBN: 0-7382-0561-3, page 82.
“If this computer unlocks”: “IBM Announces $100 Million Research Initiative to Build World’s Fastest Supercomputer: ‘Blue Gene’ to Tackle Protein Folding Grand Challenge,” IBM Research, Yorktown Heights, NY, December 6, 1999. http://domino.research.ibm.com/comm/pr.nsf/pages/news.19991206_bluegene.html
Even the slightest change: Ibid.
He expects it soon to cost: “Myhrvold’s Exponential Economy,” Technology Review, June 2002. http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/02/06/qa0602.asp?p=1
It also offers the possibility: I am indebted to Nick Kristof for his thoughts on this. See Nicholas D. Kristof, “Where Is Thy Sting,” New York Times, August 12, 2003, page A17. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=FB0E1FFD3A550C718DDDA10894DB404482
Seventy percent of its merchandise: Jerry Useem, “One Nation Under Wal-Mart,” Fortune, February 18, 2002, page 65. http://www.fortune.com/fortune/mostadmired/articles/0,15114,423053,00.html
“Hi, I’m here”: Claudia H. Deutsch, and Barnaby J. Feder, “A Radio Chip in Every Consumer Product,” New York Times, February 25, 2003, page C1. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F20D13F634590C768EDDAB0894DB404482
By 2006 Wal-Mart expects: Interview, Tom Williams, Wal-Mart spokesman, August 29, 2003.
Did you know one of the most boosted: For those of you diligent enough to read the endnotes, a little reward: The reason for the high theft rate of Preparation H, according to a Wal-Mart spokesman, is that its tissue-shrinking properties are allegedly useful to junkies trying to make their injection tracks less obvious. You’re welcome.
“The choice facing Dell’s rivals”: Timothy J. Mullaney, et al., “Special Report—the E-Business Surprise,” Business Week, May 12, 2003, page 62. http://www.businessweek.com/@48FPjocQDaRXSQIA/magazine/content/03_19/b3832601.htm
Travel agency locations closed in one year: Ibid.
the sick, the otherwise healthy with a critical need and the rest of us: See, for example, Gregory M. Lamb, “Strange Food for Thought: The Brain-Gain Revolution Is Already Under Way. But Will These ‘Neural Enhancement’ Drugs Turn Us Into Einsteins or Frankensteins?”, Christian Science Monitor, June 17, 2004. http://www.csmonitor/2004/0617/p14s01-stct.htm
“nobody sleeps in New York or Washington”: Joel Garreau, “The Great Awakening: With a Pill Called Modafinil, You Can Go 40 Hours Without Sleep—and See into the Future,” Washington Post, June 17, 2002, page C1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A61282-2002Jun16?language=printer
He is the first human confirmed: Rob Stein, “Muscle-Bound Boy Offers Hope for Humans: Scientists Work to Isolate Secrets of a Genetic Mutation That Could Alleviate Weakness Accompanying Disease and Aging,” Washington Post, June 28, 2004, page A7. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10196-2004Jun27.html
“Athletes
find a way of using just about anything. This, unfortunately, is no exception”: E. M. McNally, “Powerful Genes—Myostatin Regulation of Human Muscle Mass,” New England Journal of Medicine 350, 26 (June 24, 2004), pages 2642–4. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/extract/350/26/2642?hits=20&andorexactfulltext=and&where=fulltext&searchterm=mcnally&sortspec=Score%2Bdesc%2BPUBDATE_SORTDATE%2Bdesc&sendit=GO&excludeflag=TWEEK_element&searchid=1089587844579_8502&FIRSTINDEX=0&journalcode=nejm
The traditional music industry is being gutted. . . . Sales were down 20 percent: Business Week, “The E-Business Surprise.”
It took more than 18 centuries: Angus Maddison, Dynamic Forces in Capitalist Development: A Long-Run Comparative View (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991). ASIN: 0198283989, pages 1–29.
The world’s gross domestic product doubled almost three times: grew by a factor of 7, according to the World Trade Organization, International Trade Statistics, 2003. http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/1752003_e/17203_7oc_e.htm
The world’s exports doubled six and a half times: grew by a factor of 91. Ibid.
4 billion years: See, for example, the evolutionary and geological timelines in Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence (New York: Viking, 1999). ISBN: 0-670-88217-8, page 261, or at the Talk Origins archive. http://www.talkorigins.org/origins/geo_timeline.html
brain-scanning devices—doubling time, 12 months: Source: Ray Kurzweil.
robots—doubling time, 9 months: The United Nations Economic Commission predicted a nearly 10-fold growth of the personal and service robotics sector, from $600 million in 2002 to $5.2 billion in 2005. These were digitally intelligent devices with sensing and/or mobility qualities controlled by the equivalents of personal computers.
The number of scientific journals: Ilkka Tuomi, “Kurzweil, Moore, and Accelerating Change,” working paper, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, August 27, 2003. http://www.jrc.es/~tuomiil/articles/Kurzweil.pdf
It expects to ship its second billionth chip: “Intel Ships Billionth Chip,” Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal, June 9, 2003. http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2003/06/09/daily13html
“gut cam”: Rob Stein, “Patients Find ‘Gut Cam’ Technology Easy to Swallow,” Washington Post, December 30, 2002, page A1.
Ryan and Gross were not the most obvious academics: Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, fourth edition (New York: The Free Press, 1995). ISBN: 0-02-874074-2.
“What people mean by the word technology”: Stewart Brand, The Clock of the Long Now: Time and Responsibility (New York: Basic Books, 1999). ISBN: 0-465-04512-X, page 16.
He found himself staring: Interview with Fee, April 28, 2000.
Suffered the classic anxiety attack: Joel Garreau, “PC Be With You: The New Technology Doesn’t Just Want to Be Your Friend. It Wants to Be Your Brain,” Washington Post, page C1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp=dyn/articles/a4573=2000aug29.html
They have become part of us and we part of them: See, for example, Sherry Turkle, The Second Self: Computers and the Human Spirit (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1984), AISN: 0671468480. Also Sherry Turkle, Life on the Screen: Identity in the Age of the Internet (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1997). ISBN: 0684833484.
“lost her soul”: Janet Rae-DuPree, “Help for Hard Drives,” San Jose Mercury-News, April 28, 1996. http://www.drivesavers.com/media/sjmercury.htm
“You can hear the white knuckles”: Stange interview, August 17, 2000.
Thomas Lewis, a psychiatrist: Lewis interview, April 28, 2000.
He is the co-author of: Fari Amini, Richard Lannon, Thomas Lewis, A General Theory of Love (New York: Vintage, 2001). ISBN: 0375709223.
two NASA scientists: Manfred E. Clynes and Nathan S. Kline, “Cyborgs and Space,” Astronautics, September 1960, pp. 26–27 and 75–75; reprinted in Chris Habels Gray et al, eds., The Cyborg Handbook, (New York: Routledge, 1995). ISBN: 0415908493, pp. 29–34.
When it vibrated in the middle of the night: Deanna Kosma interview, August 21, 2000.
He talks about the two weeks: Montgomery Kosma interview, August 21, 2000.
a guide to the next decade and a half: Calculations by Ray Kurzweil.
Below is a list of 15 events: I am indebted to Erik Smith of Global Business Network for creating most of this list.
exploring and explaining ourselves by telling stories of our future: I am indebted to Henry Jenkins for his thoughts on this subject. See Henry Jenkins, “Science Fiction and Smart Mobs,” Technology Review, January 31, 2003. http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/wo_jenkins013103.asp?p=1
If you had been in Steve Jobs’ garage: The Apple Museum. http://www.theapplemuseum.com/index.php?id=tam&page=history&subpage=1970
In a seminal academic paper: Vernor Vinge, “The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era.” The original version was presented at the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30–31, 1993. A slightly changed version appeared in the winter 1993 issue of Whole Earth Review. http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/singularity.html
“At this singularity the laws of science and our ability to predict the future would break down”: Stephen Hawking, The Illustrated A Brief History of Time (New York: Bantam, 1996). ISBN: 0553937715, page 114. Cited in Brand, The Clock of the Long Now..
It is also the point beyond which you cannot see: See, for example, the discussion at the University of Illinois’ Science Center. http://archive.ncsa.uiuc.edu/Cyberia/NumRel/BlackHoleAnat.html
The sheer magnitude of each doubling becomes unfathomable: The Singularity is also referred to as “the Spike” in Damien Broderick, The Spike: How Our Lives Are Being Transformed by Rapidly Advancing Technologies (New York: Forge, 2001). ISBN: 0312877811.
WHAT ARE SCENARIOS?
What are scenarios?: This discussion of scenarios is adapted from the work of Global Business Network of Emeryville, California, the pioneering scenario planning firm.
Chapter Four HEAVEN
where modern America began: Founding of the Slater Mill, Pawtucket, RI. http://www.slatermill.org
No matter how crazy: Joel Garreau, The Nine Nations of North America (Boston: Houghton-Mifflin, 1981). ISBN: 0-395-29124-0, page 39.
In his book Walden, or Life in the Woods: Henry David Thoreau, Walden (New York: New American Library, 1960).
“men have become the tools of their tools”: Ibid.
As Edison famously said: The Jerome and Dorothy Lemelson Center for the Study of Invention and Innovation at the National Museum of American History of the Smithsonian Institution, citing Robert S. Halgrim Thomas Edison/Henry Ford Winter Estates, Ft. Meyers, Florida (Kansas City: Terrell Publishing Co., 1993). ISBN: 0-935031-67-7. http://www.si.edu/harcourt/nmah/lemel/edison/html/his_thoughts.html
Then he whispered: “A biography of Ray Kurzweil,” Kurzweil Technologies. http://www.kurzweiltech.com/raybio.htm
He invented the first practical flatbed scanner: Ibid.
He’s received eleven honorary degrees: “A Brief Career Summary of Ray Kurzweil,” Kurzweil Technologies. http://www.kurzweiltech.com/aboutray.html
“Religion in my household was ideas and knowledge”: Kurzweil interview, April 14, 2003.
“Well, that was all very well and good”: The outcome of Kurzweil’s predictions in The Age of Intelligent Machines is discussed in Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines, pages 170–78.
