by Chuck DeVore
The guards waved him through and he stepped through the moon-shaped entrance into the Dragon Room. His eyes widened in surprise—So this was where the name came from. The room was dominated by a large mural of a dragon, its serpentine body undulating in striking blue hues some 20 feet along the wall. How auspicious, thought Fu, that today’s debate should take place in the presence of the ancient symbol of China’s imperial glory. In this, the very Year of the Dragon.
Fu walked along the wall admiring the artist’s handiwork. The dragon-serpent in Chinese mythology represented power without principle. It was the distilled essence of the male principle, the masculine Yang factor with all of the feminine Yin removed. The unknown artist had captured this perfectly. There was something menacingly male about the dragon’s sinuous trunk, and his thick-muscled legs with their curving claws. The creature’s glittering eyes were devoid of compassion, its massive jaws wide open and predatory. Fu shuddered delightfully.
For centuries untold his ancestors had worshipped the dragon-serpent. They had buried their dead on hillsides overlooking the ridges of distant hills, calling these the dragon’s spine. They had centered the headstones of their grandfathers between twin pools of water, calling these the dragon’s eyes. They even called themselves the descendants of the dragon, in some Olympian fantasy of dragon-man miscegenation. All this was done to summon the dragon-serpent so that he would confer power and prosperity on them and their descendants. Fu was not a superstitious man, but he caught himself invoking the power of this great creature to aid his speech today. Its eyes seemed to rest on him for a moment, then went lifeless again.
His weariness and anxieties seemed to have vanished. “I will convince them to move against Taiwan,” he told the dragon under his breath. His fists clenched in anticipation of the debate.
Fu turned away from the mural to study the arrangement of the conference room. In the very center was a rectangular table, surrounded by ten chairs. On the table in front of each was a card containing the hand-brushed ideograph of its intended occupant. Chairman Han would be at the head of the table, of course, with Premier Wang occupying the opposite end. Two-dozen more chairs—each with its own card—were ranged along the walls. He made a quick circuit of the room, memorizing names, then staked out a position near the door. As the aides arrived he greeted them and made small talk, keeping an eye out for the key players, those who had a place at the rectangular table.
The members of the Military Affairs Commission were the first to arrive. Fu recognized General Li Zhongyang, the Vice Chairman of the MAC, a career military man who had in recent years equipped the PLA with the best hi-tech weapons Russia had to sell or the U.S. had to steal from. He was followed by the Chief of Staff of the Army, General Lu Zhandui, the Chief of Staff of the Navy, Admiral Hai Zhanting, and the Chief of Staff of the Air Force, General Kung Huojian. General Kung was in animated conversation with his fellows, talking about a new smart bomb they had acquired from the United States. “It arrived in excellent condition from our friends in Belgrade last year,” Fu heard General Kung say. “We were reverse engineering it—you know how difficult that is—when a complete computer profile of the same weapon and its controlling avionics fell into our hands from other sources. We will gear up for production by the end of the month!”
Another argument for accepting my plan, Fu thought smugly, as he turned to greet the next arrival: Vice Premier Mo Waijiao, who handled China’s foreign relations. A sometime critic of Fu’s more hard-line suggestions, Vice Premier Mo was nonetheless a courtly, diplomatic individual who responded to his greeting with a nod and a smile. “Have you met Defense Minister Han Fubai?” he asked, gesturing to the portly man in an immaculately tailored business suit by his side.
Fu Zemin bowed slightly.
“Is this the Secretary Fu with all the radical ideas?” Minister Han said to Vice Premier, ignoring Fu’s deferential nod.
“He’s a genius,” Vice Premier Mo chuckled, softening the blow, “but he’s also relatively young and impetuous. For a hundred years the Chinese people have suffered the bitterness of being bullied by the foreign imperialist powers. He wants to settle these old scores overnight.”
“Not overnight, Vice Premier,” Fu countered, “but soon. If we wait . . .”
“If we act too soon,” the Defense Minister broke in, “we risk losing everything.”
Party General Secretary Han Wudi arrived at that moment, bringing the exchange to an abrupt end. With him were Premier Wang Fuguo, Minister of the Interior Ren Baisha, Vice Premier for Economics and Trade Su Zhongqiang. Everyone found his seats as Chairman Han called the meeting to order.
The Vice Chairman of the Military Affairs Committee opened the first session. General Li Zhongyang was almost gloating as he listed the growing hi-tech capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army. Modified Russian Su-27 Flankers, faster and lighter because of the use of American-made six-way milling machines, were rolling off the assembly lines at a rate of two dozen a month. Cruise missiles were being produced at a rate of one hundred a month. Smart bombs would soon be produced in quantity. Most importantly, a half-a-dozen lightweight nuclear weapons would soon be added to the Chinese arsenal—the fruits of two decades of no-holds-barred spying on the United States.
Fu was listening with only half an ear, concentrating on reading over the draft speech he held in his hand one last time. As if I haven’t rehearsed it a hundred times already, he thought wryly.
It did not help that he was to speak at the outset, before he had a sense of where the others stood, of what consensus would emerge from the meeting. True, Chairman Han had spoken of liberating the offshore islands and Taiwan yesterday when he had arrived, but when he had talked to the members of the Military Affairs Committee later in the evening they had seemed cool to the idea. And Defense Minister Han this morning had seemed positively hostile. What if Chairman Han's remark had been merely a rhetorical flourish? Hadn’t China’s leaders blustered for 50 years about taking back Taiwan, and in the end done nothing?
Fu rubbed his bloodshot eyes wearily. This was the opportunity of a lifetime, he told himself for the thousandth time. If he favorably impressed Chairman Han and the others, there was no telling how high he might rise. Yes, and if they reject your plan, a voice within him ridiculed, then you will sink back into obscurity. Or worse. Yi luo qian jiang, he thought, recalling the ancient cry of the disgraced official, A single misstep causes a fall of a thousand steps. The General’s mention of nuclear weapons brought him back to the present.
“As all of you know,” General Li was saying, “in the mid-nineties we were able to secure exact data on all of America’s most advanced nuclear weapons. We were able to acquire both the so-called ‘legacy code’, as well as the input data for individual weapons. (The legacy code was an enormous computer file—millions of lines of code—containing all the information U.S. scientists had collected from over 40 years of nuclear tests.) From the legacy code, we learned how each and every type of U.S. nuclear weapon will perform. From the input data, we learned the key inputs into each and every type of U.S. nuclear weapon. By putting the two together we were able generate blueprints of all of America’s nuclear weapons, from miniaturized nuclear bombs and neutron bombs, to electromagnetic pulse bombs and X-ray laser bombs.”
Here General Li paused, permitting himself a triumphant smile. “Today I come before you to share some important news. All of the state-of-the-art nuclear weapons we care to have are now in production. China may now be considered a nuclear superpower. The day when the U.S. can bully and humiliate us is over!”
The assembled officials burst into applause. Fu joined in vigorously. The story of China’s incredible theft of America’s entire nuclear arsenal know-how was a story he knew intimately. How could the Americans have been so stupid as to let these weapons plans fall into our hands? It was not the first time the thought had crossed his mind. No matter. He had already known that the first of these weapons was ready, and had incor
porated their use into his plan. He was going to defeat the Americans, and their running dogs on Taiwan, with their own weapons. It was a classic adaptation of Sun Tzu’s ancient strategic wisdom.
He heard his name called, and he walked slowly to the front of the room, trying to project a calm he did not feel. There was no applause. Chinese officials only applaud those senior in rank, and he was junior to the lot of them.
The title of his talk was simple, bold, and provocative: “The Liberation of Taiwan.” He took a deep breath and began to speak, abandoning himself to the words he had so carefully crafted.
“The time has come to complete the unification of China,” he began. “This renegade province, home to the remnants of Chiang Kai-Shek’s bandits, has been too long outside of our control. The time has come for the People’s Republic, under the brilliant leadership of Chairman Han, to complete the work that Chairman Mao began.” Fu stole a glance at the Chairman, who seemed to be sitting up a little straighter in his chair.
“This will necessarily have to be accomplished by military force,” Fu went on. “Given the strength of Taiwan’s so-called ‘independence movement’, which is encouraged by the American imperialists, and the stubbornness of Chiang’s Old Guard, Taiwan will never voluntarily rejoin the motherland. With only two percent of our land area, and less than two percent of our population, Taiwan will not be able to withstand a determined assault. I estimate that two-thirds of the PRC Air Force, the entire PLA Navy, and some 500,000 men will be necessary to bring this mission to a successful conclusion. . .”
A voice cut him off in mid-sentence. “And where will the American imperialist fleet be while you ferry a half million men across the Taiwan Straits?” the defense minister said sarcastically. “Carrying out humanitarian missions in Bangladesh?” There was muffled laughter in the room.
“The American imperialists . . . in Bangladesh?” Fu fumbled for a moment but finished strong. “No, Minister Han, the American fleet will not be in Bangladesh . . . It will be in the Persian Gulf, in the Adriatic and off the coast of Indonesia.”
Fu’s comeback elicited a scowl from the Defense Minister, but from others in the room came a murmur of interest. Premier Wang even nodded approvingly. Fu decided to let their curiosity build for a few minutes more before unveiling his strategy. “I’ll get to the Indonesian diversion in a minute, but first let me give you a little more background. As you know, the American imperialists occupied Taiwan at the beginning of the Korean War. Eisenhower ordered the U.S. Seventh Fleet to patrol the Taiwan Straits, violating our territorial waters, preventing—as the minister of defense has pointed out—our troops from reaching Taiwan. Later, the U.S. opened an air base, for its Eighth Air Force, near the Taiwan city of Taichung, making an invasion that much more risky.”
“Beginning the late 1970s the balance of forces in the Straits began to shift in our favor. Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping insisted that the last of the American occupying troops be withdrawn in 1978 as a condition of diplomatic recognition. The Seventh Fleet stopped patrolling the Taiwan Straits. The Mutual Security Treaty was abrogated. . .”
“Yes, but there is still the Taiwan Relations Act,” interjected the Defense Minister. “It calls for the U.S. to guarantee the security of Taiwan against invasion or blockade.”
“Not exactly, Minister Han,” Fu responded. “All the Taiwan Relations Act says is that”—here he quoted—“‘. . .the U.S. would consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means . . . a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the U.S.’ It does not commit the U.S. to defend Taiwan. That would be up to the U.S. President.”
Mention of the U.S. leader, a weak man whose administration had been rocked by repeated scandals, many of them related to his out-of-control appetites, brought a round of ribald jokes.
“A bevy of our black-haired beauties could distract him while we take Taiwan,” the Minister of Economics offered to general laughter.
“Beauties carrying bundles of unmarked bills would be a double distraction,” riposted Premier Wang, “I understand he’s already raising money for the next elections.”
“And for his legal bills,” the Minister of the Interior, Ren Baisha, added dryly. “So many women are suing him . . .”
“Maybe we could support him for UN Secretary General,” the Minister of Economics, Su Zhongqiang, quipped. “As a foreign diplomat in the U.S., he would possess immunity from arrest.”
The scornful joking continued for several more moments, with even Chairman Han joining in. Like most Party officials, Fu thought little of the American President, but he was still surprised by the depth of his own leaders’ disdain. So much the better, he realized, it will predispose them to accept my plan.
As soon as things had quieted down, he began to hammer the point home. “We all agree that this American president is weak and indecisive,” he said to a round of appreciative nods. “This is an argument for striking Taiwan hard now, before their next presidential elections remove him from office.”
“The American military is weak now, too, particularly in Asia, weaker and more over extended than it has been at any time since the end of the Vietnam War. The Americans have been forced out of Vietnam, the Philippines and, of course, Taiwan. They have reduced their forces in Korea and Japan. What’s left? A Marine division in Okinawa, 37,000 men in South Korea, and naval and air force elements in Japan.”
“Is there some risk of U.S. intervention?” Fu said dramatically. “Of course there is. But I’ll tell you in a minute how we can minimize this risk. Let us first remember what is at stake here.
“Right now, Taiwan is a dagger pointed at the heart of China. You’ve all read the reports. Our people are impressed by Taiwan’s economic development; by per capita their incomes are ten times higher than ours. They are seduced by its so-called ‘democratic’ political system, the myth that the people themselves select their leaders. We in the Party know that moneybags democracy is a failure and a fraud. Only the Chinese Communist Party, the vanguard of the proletariat, can truly represent the interests of the Chinese people. Yet the people—some people—are taken in. By taking Taiwan we turn this dagger away from us and thrust it toward the United States.
“And think of the prize of Taiwan, with its first-world economy, its highly educated work force, and its cutting-edge technology. Gaining Hong Kong increased our GNP by about eight percent. Gaining Taiwan would increase our GNP by another ten percent overnight. Bringing Taiwan back into China will increase our military might, giving us ports from which our ships can steam farther, and airfields from which our planes can fly greater distances.
“But the prize here is larger than just Taiwan,” Fu continued. “Taiwan is the key to control of the entire first island chain, from Japan and Korea in the north, down to the Philippines and Indonesia in the south. Once Taiwan has been absorbed, Japan and Korea will fall into our orbit. The Philippines and Southeast Asia will follow. Within a short time the countries of the first island chain will be in the hands of governments friendly to China, and hostile to the United States. China, not the United States, will be the regional hegemon.”
The Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party spoke for the first time. “This is all very fine,” Chairman Han said quietly. “But will the U.S. stand idly by while we overrun their colony?”
“They will not be idle, Mr. Chairman,” Fu said with a daring touch of smugness. “That’s the beauty of my plan. The U.S. Army will be tied down in Korea by troop mobilizations north of the border. Our friend Kim Jong-il will see to that. The U.S. Navy will be responding to a crisis in the Middle East. Our friends in Iraq and Syria will see to that. And the U.S. Marines,” he paused here for effect, “will be fighting for their lives in East Timor and Indonesia. Before the U.S. can bring in forces from Hawaii or the American West Coast, Taiwan will be ours.”
As Fu expected, Defense Minister Han Fubai immediately spoke out against his plan.
“In ten more years we will have not just a handful but thousands of the new nuclear weapons that General Li has told us about. We will have not just 20 nuclear weapons pointed at the U.S. but hundreds or maybe even thousands. These new compact weapons will be on hard-to-target mobile launchers, which we are only now developing, or clustered on our new ICBMs.”
“China’s economic health is very vulnerable,” Vice Premier Su nodded in support of the Defense Minister. Vice Premier Su Zhongqiang had overall responsibility for economics and trade. “We are heavily reliant upon imported oil, gas, minerals, metals, chemicals and food. Cross-straits trade and investment means that Taiwan’s manufacturing capability is already at our disposal, regardless of whose flag flies over the presidential palace.”
“But we do need command of the sea lanes,” the Admiral in charge of the PLA naval forces, Admiral Hai Zhanting, interjected. “Control over Taiwan and the South China Sea would put us in a much stronger position to guarantee the imports we need. We are very vulnerable to blockade. Does anyone here think that America will let us rise up to challenge their power? Were we in their position, would we let another nation grow more powerful than China? We must control our own destiny.”
“That’s the same argument that drove Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany to start World War Two,” objected the Defense Minister. “Think of how dependent pre-war Japan and Germany were on foreign oil and ore. The Japanese went to war to capture Indonesian oil. The Germans went to war to capture Russian oil and to secure Swedish iron ore via Norway.”
“Yes, and look what happened to them,” added Vice Premier Su. “They were both defeated by America. It took their economies more than 20 years to recover.”
