by Chuck DeVore
Fu pushed himself to his unsteady feet and walked as quickly as he could to the radar station. The officer offered Fu his chair and Fu gratefully sat down.
“See these blips sir?” The officer showed Fu five pulsing dots to the center-left of the screen.
“Yes, of course.” Fu said dismissively.
“These are Taiwanese naval vessels. And these. . .” the officer swept his right hand, palm outward with the back of his index finger touching the screen, to the right, “. . .are the ships of our task force.”
A mass of radar returns filled the screen, dwarfing the enemy’s fleet. Too bad today was not the day—we could score a tremendous victory for China.
“Has the enemy always reacted this way?” Fu inquired, knowing this was the third such exercise since April.
The officer, appreciating a good question from the political officer, responded with more respect, “Sir, the first time we sent 15 warships and 11 amphibious assault ships across Amoy Bay opposite the town of Chinmen. We elicited the reaction of the entire Quemoy naval flotilla—some nine vessels within an hour of our arrival at the territorial limits. Needless to say, we could have made it ashore before the enemy could have engaged us. Two weeks later we came at them with 12 warships and five assault ships from Amoy and another ten warships and nine assault ships that started down the coast from Fuzhou the day before. The Taiwanese bandits sent 15 ships out to meet our two-pronged ‘attack’. The ships were waiting for us at their territorial limits. We also noticed a submarine operating with their flotilla. Today, we see five ships already on station. Intelligence tells us to expect another ten to 15 ships as well as a submarine. It seems the bandits are already becoming proficient at responding to our rehearsals.”
Fu considered the information, we are throwing away our ability to achieve strategic surprise in our assault on Quemoy. . .
* * *
The ROC navy skipper of the Dutch-built Chien Lung-class submarine (one of two Taiwan possessed) looked at the tactical display. It showed a large PLAN flotilla charging towards Taiwan’s territorial waters just north of Quemoy’s main island. Even with his silent diesel-electric boat, the skipper knew he was vulnerable in the shallow waters. Still, with the choppy seas and the confused currents, we should be able to sink a couple of destroyers, slip through their ASW screen and sink some amphibians too. He tried to put out of his mind thought of the Western anti-submarine warfare equipment the Chinese had purchased. It was hard to be hunter and prey at the same time—to simultaneously think offensively and defensively.
“I want an accurate navigational reading, take us to periscope depth and get a GPS update for our inertial navigational system.” he commanded. If he fired the first shot in a Taiwan-China skirmish, he wanted to be sure that he had a solid basis for doing so. Just let the bastards cross the line—we’ll shove some Taiwanese steel down their throats.
“Sir!” it was the tactical officer, “the enemy has crossed into our territorial waters!”
“Calm yourself lieutenant,” the skipper’s rebuke was itself quietly assuring. “Weapons! Flood the forward torpedo tubes. Target the lead enemy destroyer on the plot.” Hsaing then shouted, “Navigation, do we have our GPS update yet?”
A voice came from behind a control station, “We’ve just got our mast up, we should get a fix within five seconds. . . Got it! Feeding data into the inertials now sir!”
“Tactical?” the Captain looked at his young lieutenant.
“Sir, the plot’s been refreshed. The Chinese ships are within 500 meters of boundary. They are not in our waters!”
The captain felt conflicting emotions. One part of him wanted to blast the Reds out of the ocean. The other part of him heaved a sigh of relief that his nation would not suffer today nor be threatened with loss of liberty. “Weapons, run solutions for both destroyers. Secure the torpedoes. It seems our ‘friends’ are just testing us again today.”
Not today. The officer shuddered at how close he came to starting a war. Discretion is the better part of valor. . .
* * *
“Our agents in Taiwan report that orders have been given to transfer a division of ROC troops to Quemoy and reinforce the island with an additional Patriot air defense battery,” Minister of the Interior Ren Baisha reported to Chairman Han Wudi.
“Any word on how Taiwan knew of our preparations?”
“Yes,” the Interior Minister smiled grimly. “The traitor will be taken care of at the appropriate time.”
“What of our Special Emissary?”
“Fu? He does well. He worries that our provocations are preparing the Taiwanese too well for the coming storm.” Minister Ren gave his assessment as an approving uncle would of his nephew.
Chairman Han smiled from behind steepled hands, “Fu is a smart and ambitious young man. He will serve China well.”
“Should we tell him about the state of the diversions we have prepared with Iraq and Korea?” Ren offered, “It might encourage him.”
Han pursed his lips, “No. No need to tell him. The adversity will build his character.”
* * *
What the hell were the Chinese doing? Donna Klein looked at the latest report of yet another Chinese naval maneuver off the coast of Quemoy. She did all she could to keep current on events in China, even though she was still assigned to the Indonesia task force. She grudgingly admitted that her assignment to the task force was becoming increasingly relevant, especially now that 20,000 PLA soldiers were in Indonesia—5,000 on Java, 8,000 on Sumatra, and 7,000 on Borneo.
She wanted some face time with Jack Benson, her China Section boss, to discuss the rapidly developing situation with China. While she was the unchallenged expert on China for the Indonesian crisis task force, she felt as if her knowledge on China proper was becoming dated. Why were the Chinese cooperating with the UN deployment to Indonesia? What happened to their long-standing opposition to interfering in the “internal affairs” of other nations? Why pursue a policy of rapprochement with America on one hand while intimidating Taiwan on another?
Donna signed for another classified report she had requested. She knew she’d pay for her extra reading with another late night—but she had to probe deeper into the mysteries of China’s current policy shifts. Donna broke the seal on the manila envelope and began reading selected cables intercepted from Taiwan’s Defense Ministry.
. . .Deploy the 8th Infantry Division to Quemoy. . .
. . .Reinforce Quemoy with one Patriot battery. . .
. . .Prepare to shift additional armor and artillery assets to Quemoy: up to a battalion of each. . .
. . .Reinforce Matsu with a battalion of infantry. . .
. . .Prepare to cancel military leaves and call up reserves on short notice. . .
. . .Additional PLA rocket artillery spotted within range of Quemoy. Estimated regiment of rocket artillery (122mm and 273mm) now deployed east of Amoy capable of reaching Hsiao Quemoy Island. . .
. . .Five Russian-made FROG-7 rockets with TELs spotted moving into position by Lianhe, capable of ranging most of Quemoy. . .
She skimmed through the cables, some of them still in the original Chinese. Clearly the Taiwanese were worried about the Chinese build-up. Apparently they were convinced of the danger to the offshore islands of Quemoy and Matsu—situated perilously near the Mainland as close as six miles away. Yet, Donna shook her head, even the Taiwanese, those in the immediate path of danger, refused to take steps that could really get Beijing’s attention. She noted with frustration that Taiwan considered scaling back economic ties with the Mainland, then refused to do so. They’re just like us. Worse even—it’s their freedom at stake.
Donna paused to massage her tired eyes. She kept meaning to get her eyes checked—she hoped she wouldn’t need glasses but she wouldn’t be surprised if she did.
“Sleeping on government time again, are we?” It was Jack Benson’s voice.
Donna almost jumped, feeling a knee-jerk guilt even though she had
already put in 42 hours this week and it was only Wednesday. “Jack, I’m glad you stopped by, I wanted to ask you a few questions and get your opinion on a few matters.”
“Might these matters be about the People’s Republic of China?” Benson asked with a theatric mock.
Donna was mildly annoyed at her boss’s caviler attitude. She knew that he knew how much she resented the more or less permanent assignment to the “temporary” Indonesia task force. Making light of her desire to talk shop only intensified her longing for a return to the familiar.
“Jack, what’s your read on China’s build-up opposite Quemoy. Would they actually try to invade Quemoy?”
Jack began to get his serious face on, “What would they gain?”
Donna decided to throw the ball right back. “I don’t know. Why are they building up then?”
“Political pressure. Taiwan had its second straight free transition of power from one president to another. Pro-independence parties and candidates won the largest share of the vote. It may be China’s way of shaping the new administration in Taipei—showing them who’s boss.”
“Couldn’t they have done the same thing just by firing a few missiles? That would have been cheaper.” Donna was deep in thought, her gaze rested on Jack’s chest, only glancing at his eyes as she finished her statement.
“China does a lot of things even us ‘old China hands’ don’t understand. I don’t know why they’re building up, I just know they are—and I still don’t believe they’d invade. They have too much to lose.”
“Like what?” Donna was now looking directly at Jack with an intensity that always made the divorcee feel uncomfortable.
“Their standing in the world community. Investments from Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and the West. The growing riches of their emerging capitalist class. A return to the days of conquering by force can only set them back. Hell, Donna, if they just stay the course they’ll have a larger economy than ours in less than two decades!”
“What if they thought they couldn’t wait that long?” Donna knew she was pressing, it’s just that it had become so rare recently that she actually had the pleasure of discussing strategic issues in a non-crisis atmosphere.
Jack was enjoying himself in spite of the fact that he thought Donna was too hard-line to be objective. She was pretty after all. “Why wouldn’t they want to wait? The Chinese have a history thousands of years old. Only in the last couple of centuries have they fallen behind. Look at it this way: at their height in the early to mid-80s, the Soviet economy was about 55% of our own. They had about 110% of our population base. Their productivity was about half of ours. Today, China has about 55% of our GNP. They have about four-and-a-half times our population. Their productivity is about one-eighth of ours. China’s economy is far less centrally managed today than was the Soviet economy of the mid-80s. In addition, the Chinese have a much stronger cultural affinity to business than do the Russians. I know you think as I do that it is overly conservative to project the Chinese eventually reaching half of our productivity. When they do, their economy will be two-and-a-half times larger than ours. Hell, I bet they could buy America by 2050!”
“Why buy the nation for real dollars when you can own the politicians for pennies?” Donna couldn’t resist.
“Donna, Donna, Donna. You have to learn to control your wise-ass comments, even in front of friendly colleagues like myself. That attitude of yours is going to get you into trouble.” Jack was moderately scolding.
Donna decided to shift arguments on Jack and try to keep him engaged on discussing China, “What about the accelerated pace of Chinese weapons purchases from Russia? If the Chinese are thinking long-term, why buy equipment that will rapidly be obsolete?”
“Why did Japan buy used British warships after World War One?” Jack struck back by answering a question with a question.
“Because they wanted to be a world power and they only had three percent of the steel production capacity of America. That doesn’t really explain the Chinese situation Jack; they are now the world’s largest producer of steel.”
Jack responded with a smile, “I think it does explain the Chinese situation. Both nations could build military power more efficiently by relying on other nations for arms. In the case of the Japanese and the British, the Japanese were their allies in defeating Germany’s Pacific possessions in World War One. The British economy was in tatters after the war and they saw a means of getting quick cash for old warships. This allowed Japan to concentrate on building its economy rather than shifting prematurely to a war footing. The same with China. They can upgrade their military with cheap Russian hardware while also buying production licenses for domestic manufacture. Eventually, they’ll have the means to produce large amounts of armaments, if they chose. Now, however, I think they are satisfied with making large sums of money.”
Donna had drifted into deep thought again. She mumbled under her breath, “. . .arsenal of despair.”
“What was that, Donna?”
Donna fixed her eyes on Jack again. Jack knew Donna was smarter than he was. That intimidated him too.
“You know how Roosevelt referred to America as ‘the Arsenal of Democracy’ as World War Two was heating up?”
“Yes, yes, of course. He was referring to America being the reliable supplier of arms to the nations opposing Hitler.”
Donna was preparing to smash a home run, she knew it and Jack could feel it, but he was helpless to stop it. “Well, Russia has become for China what we were then for Britain. They are ‘the Arsenal of Despair.’”
“What are you suggesting?” Jack asked without really wanting to hear an answer that he knew would be well thought out and at odds with his own beliefs.
“I’m suggesting that China feels free to pursue a course of economic advancement and military strength. They don’t need to concentrate on building a massive military-industrial complex—they already have the world’s largest one at their disposal right next door! With international hard currency reserves in excess of $150 billion, I believe they can efficiently finance adequate purchases of hardware from the Russians.” Donna paused to catch her breath. She stabbed her finger in the air and looked past Jack, in her own world again, “What’s America’s annual weapons procurement budget, about $60 billion or so? I’m sure Russia would be more than happy to supply the Chinese with at least $20 billion per year in missiles, ships, and aircraft. Heck, with Russia’s debt problems, our banks would probably welcome the move with our own Treasury Department hailing the deal as good for the world economy!”
“Assuming China would really want to spend a fortune on a military build-up in preparation for invading Quemoy, why would Russia be willing to sell large amounts of equipment to China—after all, the Russians view China as more of a ‘Yellow Peril’ than we do.” Jack was still unconvinced.
“Cash. Cold, hard cash. It’s also a way to tweak America’s nose. Why did Russia sell Nazi Germany oil and war materials before the war? Between the world wars why did the Soviets allow the Germans to secretly practice the armored maneuvers on their soil that would eventually become known as ‘blitzkrieg’? Russia has done quite a few unexpected things in the recent past. Why not agree to become China’s arsenal? There’s good money in it.”
“Okay, granted.” Jack was worn down on that point but was still skeptical of Donna’s basic premise, “But you still have a long way to go to convince me or anyone else who matters that the Chinese are preparing to invade Quemoy—it just doesn’t make any sense. They haven’t even built, or bought, a large enough amphibious assault force yet. What are they going to do, row over to Quemoy?”
Donna smiled. She had at least scored a partial victory, “Well, we’re back to the beginning of our discussion, aren’t we? Why the build-up opposite Quemoy, boss? And, if they cared so much about the world community, why risk the resumption of underground nuclear testing a few months ago? Why does that make sense?”
“Oh, come on now Donna, we aren’t
even sure they resumed testing. . .” Jack was getting annoyed.
“That’s right. Why bother? They stole all our nuclear designs and we gave them the nuclear testing software so they don’t need to test anymore. But Jack, what if they did? Don’t we owe it to the American people and the leaders we serve to find out?
“Oh, and one more thing, have you noticed that China’s UN troop dispositions in Indonesia virtually mirror the crude oil production regions of that nation?”
Jack smiled, snorted and turned on his heels, dropping his left hand down and symbolically pushing Donna away as he retreated back into his comfortable conventional thinking.
17
The Boss Is Dead
Lipu County Party boss Fu Mingjie had almost collected enough money to provide his up-and-coming son with a handsome investment portfolio on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Zemin will never have to grub for bribes like I have—this will give him the untouchable reputation he needs to rise to the very top. If he played it correctly, there would be enough left over that he could retire in modest style on the outskirts of Beijing, close to his grandson and close to his old home village.
Fu smiled as he urged his Landcruiser’s big engine onward, up the steep incline to confront the troublemaker Chu. Old Chu has resisted me one time too many. He patted the old Makarov 9mm pistol in the holster buckled to his waist. This ought to persuade Chu to see things my way—what will it be, the road tax or the county trucks? He smiled again at the “choice” he would give Chu. It was good to be the boss.
Fu pulled his white Toyota 4X4 left up the narrow lane that led to the Chus’ house. He looked in the mirror and smoothed his slicked back black hair—he had taken to dyeing it five years ago when he realized how old the gray made him look. He stepped down out of the truck. He looked around to see no one was watching, then straightened his large, tan cotton blouse shirt.
