“If I could use two computers,” Yoshizumi said as he glanced around the data processing center. “But right now only one is available.”
“If you had two, how long would it take?”
“Two and a half to three hours.”
“Get me the chief of the data processing center.”
Yoshizumi signaled to the chief of the center, who was just walking past at that moment. He was a former Navy Operations technical officer, tall and slender.
“Oh no you don’t, Popov!” he shouted after listening to the receiver for a moment. “What about the guys who’re doing arithmetic operations now? I can’t tell them to stop in the middle.”
“There’s a guy who’s getting ready to have his data processed,” called Steve from the side.
The chief of the processing center clucked his tongue to inform Steve that his input was not welcome.
“Well then, stop prep on number four.” So saying, the chief of data processing returned the receiver to Yoshizumi. “Number two and number four. Will that be enough?”
“In addition,” said Yoshizumi, the wheels in his head clearly turning, “is the multiple integrator for making weather charts free?”
The chief briefly stood on his tiptoes, stretching to get a look at the large machine in the corner of the room. “Nobody’s using it right now. Can you handle it by yourself?”
“If someone could help me …”
“Steve!” shouted the chief. “Give us a hand over here! The office says to give him all the assistance we can manage.”
It took several minutes for Steve to feed the mountains of stacked cards into the card classifier. It was hard work—those that had been through the first stage of classification were placed in their various groups, and then reclassified according to a different classification scheme. When the third stage of classification was complete, the cards’ data would be recorded onto magnetic tape, following a system that Yoshizumi had written out by hand. Yoshizumi ran two computer programs. One portion of the calculations streaming out of computer number two were fed linearly into computer number four, and the rest were calculated independently, with three circuits set to go into the multiple integrator.
The Phillips-WE-produced integrator was an extremely precise machine made for creating weather charts. Molecular circuits that had been burned in using photochemistry could do the same work as transistors, even though they occupied tens of thousands of times less volume. The US Navy Atmospheric Observation Department had specially ordered them for use in Antarctica, so their power consumption was low, and their stability at low temperatures was first-rate. The part that did most of the mathematical operations was in a room dug deep outside of this data processing center, buried under several dozen meters of ice, connected to the machinery in the data processing center by cable.
Yoshizumi selected from among a stock of negative plates a seldom-used map of the whole North American continent and an enlarged map of Alaska and burned them onto oversized sheets of photosensitive paper. Afterward, he printed out typographs of isobars, isotherms, and wind directions, and set up the three-dimensional scanner.
Steve breathed a relieved sigh as an OK sign was sent to him from the other side of the room. Yoshizumi glanced at the clock. Already, one hour and twenty minutes had elapsed.
It took another half hour to perform general checks on all the settings. When everything was in place, Yoshizumi turned back toward Steve. Steve threw the switch. An extra-wide tape of one and one-third inches’ width started to roll, and the lamps on three computers started blinking wildly. Several minutes later, the scanner began making clicking noises.
2. “We don’t deserve this”
1800 hours
The Supreme Council members gathered in the operations room. Representatives were present from each of the national bases. Also present were Colonel McCloud, Major Zoshchenko, Professor Visconti—head of the Geology Committee—Yoshizumi’s direct supervisor Professor Yamauchi, two American Air Force Officers whom he only knew by face, two NASA employees, and finally two men he had never seen before. One appeared to be an American; the other was most likely Russian.
Aside from a large, crude table, ops was devoid of decoration. The ceiling was low. In the front was a screen for projecting maps, several telephones and interphones, one videophone, a microphone and small mixer table for live broadcasting, and above the screen, the new mark of the “Antarctic Federation.” This resembled the mark of the United Nations, with the continent of Antarctica in the center, and concentric rings and rays representing lines of latitude and longitude. On both sides of it, small flags of the former nations were arranged.
“Mr. Yoshizumi,” the still-youthfully complected Admiral Conway said suddenly, not making any opening comments to start the meeting. “It was by lucky coincidence that we learned of the content in report ST-3006, in which you compiled, summarized, and submitted to the Geology Committee the results of surveys conducted in your field when you participated in Nereid’s recent survey mission to the northern hemisphere. We are very concerned about the deductions that you put forth. We sought the opinions of Professor Visconti and Professor Yamauchi of the Geology Committee, and both of them replied that because you, in your field, are an extremely competent and creative thinker, your analyses have a generally high level of reliability and can be trusted. Because of that, due to associations your conclusions have with an exceptionally dangerous situation, the Supreme Council has summoned you here today because we would like to hear a more precise explanation in your own words.”
Yoshizumi, not knowing what their intentions were, was feeling somewhat irritable. They were speaking with discretion. It sounded like something was going to happen, and it had something to do with the observations he had made. They were wanting to confirm the connections. An ‘exceptionally dangerous situation’? What on earth were they talking about? Antarctica was so remote from the continents. Truly, his research had concerned a region that was practically Antarctica’s antipode. No matter how he looked at it, he didn’t think there was any connection at all.
“Please explain it to us,” Professor Borodinov interjected. “Simply, and in an easy-to-understand fashion.”
“Well, first,” said Yoshizumi, beginning to explain in a slightly annoyed tone, still unsure how to explain in a way that would meet their requirements, “as you all know, my specialty is seismology.”
Simultaneously, everyone’s face grew tense at that. Yoshizumi went to the screen and hung up one of the maps he had only just finished making in the data processing center.
“I say seismology, but my main area of research concerns the study of dynamic crustal structures, not observing landscapes or predicting events. In particular, before I came to Antarctica, the main thrust of my work was in using statistical physics to study phenomena within the earth’s crust, and in the course of trying out various things, by chance, I introduced a certain functional correlation between several different phenomena and discovered a method that can be used to predict earthquakes with a very high degree of accuracy. Just before I came to Antarctica four years ago, I submitted a paper to a conference on seismology in Japan. However, before it could generate much criticism or debate, that happened, as you all well know. Afterward, however, after making statistical corrections to data from the tremors on the Palmer Peninsula and Graham Land in Antarctica—as well as to Professor Visconti’s observations of earthquakes in the waters off Chile when he was on T-232 two years ago—I think it has become possible now to predict a coming earthquake’s location, time, magnitude, and depth of epicenter with a very high degree of probability and with considerable specificity.”
The eyes of the committee members were fixed on the two maps. Above the blue relief map, red spiral lines had been embossed.
“We took readings this time of the Pacific coast of the North American continent—well, of the sea bed along the coast, actually, since land-based observations were impossible. What we observed, more
than anything we’d observed in the past, were large scale, mutually associated unusual phenomena.” Yoshizumi pointed at the map. “To get these areas that look like isobars, I posited a relationship between variations in the gravitational field and variations in the inclination of the earth’s magnetic field and vertical arc minutes, then integrated over three dimensions. Sparing the detailed explanation, I obtained a numerical value which I call ‘E’ in this manner, and then connected all the points where ‘E’ is the same to one another. The shaded areas indicate the dynamic pressures deep within the earth’s crust. These come from taking what we learn analytically from the value of E, inputting the mass of the continent along with other factors, and making corrections.”
Yoshizumi moved from the map of North America to the map of Alaska.
“The unusual phenomena observed this time mostly took place in the Pacific coastal region of North America. I think this is proof that the land-building activity in this general region is once again becoming stronger and stronger. In particular, there were extremely high values observed in phenomena in the seafloor off the coast of Alaska. In other words, there were powerful perturbations in the magnetic field and in geoelectric currents, and in the space of just a few months, there were large, negative changes in the gravity that our instruments were able to record clearly—there are deficits in mass.”
Yoshizumi turned slightly to look back at the committee members. All of them were sitting still as stones.
“Uhm … by observing the coastal region, we predicted that abrupt, positive gravitational anomalies were taking place in the direction of the continent, most likely with correspondingly large, positive gravitational shifts on the dry land. Backing this up, many volcanoes in the Alaska Range were observed to be becoming very active. Mount McKinley for starters, and some previously dormant volcanoes as well. You’re probably aware of this already, but belts of positively abnormal gravitation caused by convection currents in the magma often match up extremely well with belts of volcanic activity.”
Yoshizumi stopped speaking to look around the room. Did the expressionless—but extremely tense—faces looking back understand what he was saying, or were they just waiting for what was coming? It was hard to tell for sure.
“Alaska is in the Pacific ‘ring of fire’—also known as the circum-Pacific earthquake belt,” Yoshizumi continued. “Now, it’s true that this is an area with frequent earthquakes, but what we’re seeing here is simply bizarre. Observable, abnormally intense changes have taken place in an extremely brief period of time—I’m not talking about the two years since Professor Visconti’s observations; this is just in the few months between Nereid’s coming and going. The seafloor off Alaska is presently sinking steadily, and small-scale tectonic-line earthquakes happen there frequently. Now according to Wegener and others, the large fold of the North American coastline was caused by the continental landmass on top of the sima moving west and colliding with very old Pacific sima, which was hardened by cooling. This causes wrinkling due to pressures created by this movement. Now the missing gravity on the seafloor along the coast of North America has never been as striking as, say, the missing mass of the trench that runs along the outer edge of the Sumatra-Java tectonic line. However, in this short space of time, a plus-and-minus anomaly bearing a strong resemblance to that of Sumatra-Java—with an exceedingly narrow width and the shape of a parallel belt—is gradually becoming apparent.
“This made me wonder if unusually abrupt convection currents might be occurring in the magma of the lower regions of the continental landmass and suspect that subsidence bifurcation might have appeared all along the coastal seafloor. You may be aware of this already, but geothermal heat underground causes very slow, opposing currents of heavy, super-alkaloid magma—typically, it flows about one centimeter per year. Because the sinking magma can be replenished from the lighter layer of sial, mass deficits occur, the gravity becomes slightly weaker, and oceanic trenches and geosynclines form as a result. The rising magma comes flowing up from the other direction to cause positive gravitational anomalies. The sinking part is the cause of trenches and geosynclines where we find the foci of earthquakes, and in the rising part the creation of mountain ranges along folds in the earth’s crust can be seen.”
“And because of that,” inserted the Norwegian representative Bjornsen, “it looks like there are going to be some earthquakes.”
“In all likelihood,” agreed Yoshizumi. “Given abnormalities as striking as what we’ve observed, it’s not just me; anyone could predict that major shifts in the earth’s crust are on the way.”
“I wonder why this abnormal convection current has happened so suddenly,” said Blanchot, the Belgian representative.
“To be perfectly honest, I have no idea,” said Yoshizumi, shaking his head. “I don’t think this is related to the Great Anchorage Earthquake of 1964, though it may be the last of the string of earthquakes in Alaska that’s continued since ’64. At any rate, something very odd is going on in the ground beneath America, and beneath the Alaskan region in particular. Should it be called an extremely abrupt peirogenic effect … ? The MohoroviČić discontinuity has steadily risen and has come up to a depth of just a few kilometers. Even a hundred kilometers down, in the region of isostatic equilibrium, there seem to be some awfully big waves. Why such rapid changes are happening—changes that seem to have ignored almost everything we know about magma convection—I can’t really say. After all, everything we know is only a scratch in the earth’s crust. When it comes to the internal factors of major epeirogeny, coming up with analogies is about the best we can do.”
The people who were present experienced for one instant a feeling as if the floor had floated free of the ground beneath it.
Drifting, floating continents—bobbing like icebergs on a sea of heavy sima; light chunks of sial slowly flowing along with the force of the earth’s rotation. As unshaken as the land, as unmoving as the mountains. Humans had always thought of the land as the firmest, heaviest thing in the world. But in fact, the land was floating like foam on a sea of magma, the continents were drifting like corn flakes in milk. They were only flowing along with the current. The ocean of magma, affected by the nature of the ocean itself, experienced convection currents, swirling tidal flows, and the crashing of waves. Continents floated on the waves as though they were leaves. At times, they became wrinkled like the film on warm milk; at other times, they broke apart, more brittle than dried leaves.
Human beings were living on top of those fragile, drifting dry leaves. In the brief moments of the wandering of the continents, they had formed colonies, like a mold that had germinated on the surface of a dry leaf and then overgrown it. That leaf’s length and breadth had at last become bound by the mold’s hyphea, and tall towers of spores had been constructed. They sang the praises of civilization, they hated and warred again and again, and in each and every moment had pride in their power and wisdom and glory.
Mold!
Now, as when sunlight dries out a mold and kills it, they had been wiped from that crust of land, with only a small handful still clinging on at the water margin of ice and snow, living on under cruel circumstances. Yet in the end, if they were something that had germinated on the top of something that drifted, what could they do if their boat of land were about to be shipwrecked?
“But you can predict the size, location, and approximate time of an earthquake, can’t you?” said Barnes, the English representative.
“With a high degree of certainty,” Yoshizumi said with a nod. “Of course, I can’t say one hundred percent. Still …” He shrugged.
“Mr. Yoshizumi, your method for predicting earthquakes through the analysis of a series of anomalies in the earth’s crust is tremendously valuable,” Professor Visconti croaked hoarsely, turning to address the other members. “If the world had continued as it once was, his hypothesis would have surely had an enormous impact on the academic community. It may have even won the Nobel Prize.”
> Yoshizumi grimaced at that. The Nobel Prize—the prize, the glory, and the idiotic frenzy of journalists. When he thought about the destruction of that world that had been so in love with merrymaking, he had to wonder, what had the idea of glory ever really meant in the first place?
“We’ve also been discussing the report in terms of numbers,” Professor Yamauchi said. “His conclusions seem mostly accurate. The methods used for making the observations are also, I believe, sufficiently reliable.”
“So what about the earthquake?” said Admiral Conway. “Where about will it occur?”
Yoshizumi extended a finger and pointed at the map of Alaska. Then he drew two lines with his finger and pointed at their intersection. “Right around this point here,” he said. “An earthquake should occur within a hundred click radius of here.”
“On land?”
“Yes.” Yoshizumi nodded. “Normally, it would occur along the area where negative gravimetric changes are being caused by the trench. In this case, however, it appears most likely that an epeirogenic earthquake deep underground will serve as the trigger for a large-scale tectonic-line earthquake, so the conditions will be a bit different.”
“Which means,” Admiral Conway said, “that two earthquakes will overlap, correct?”
“Well, yes. I’d say that’s true. One earthquake will have its focus over a hundred kilometers underground, on a region of isostatic equilibrium. The other, I think, will occur in the middle depths at a depth of between twenty and thirty kilometers.”
“What about the size and the time?”
“I have only a rough idea of the mass of Alaska’s landmass, so this isn’t precise, but for magnitude, I’d say between eight point six and nine. And for the time, probably two or three months from now. A year at the very most.”
“Magnitude eight point six to nine?” muttered one of the air force officers in surprise. “That would be the biggest earthquake ever observed in history!”
Virus: The Day of Resurrection Page 32
