by Robin Crumby
He frowned, dipping a chocolate digestive biscuit into his tea and snapping it between his teeth.
“After the Great War, it became a widely held belief that Spanish flu was an indirect result of the poisoned gas attacks, of rotting corpses left decomposing in No Man’s Land, of cholera outbreaks. In reality, scientists spent years analysing the causes of that pandemic. There still remains considerable disagreement as to the aetiology of the virus.”
“Aetiology?”
“Sorry, where the virus came from. And you’re right, there are some remarkable similarities between Spanish flu and what we’re seeing now. Both viruses cause an extreme auto-immune response. In many cases, the healthier the victim, the more extreme the reaction. Organ failure and inflammation of the lungs is typical. We always hoped that the circumstances that produced the 1918 pandemic were unique, unlikely ever to be reproduced.”
“By which you presumably mean the thousands of young people from different backgrounds and geographies thrown together into training camps, in close proximity with livestock and fowl, exposed to death and disease on an unimaginable scale? Not to mention the gas attacks, poor hygiene and the filth of No Man’s Land?”
“Precisely. Are you familiar with the work of Professor John Oxford? He was one of my former colleagues at the Royal London Hospital Medical School. I knew one of his daughters when I was up at Trinity. Brilliant man. He spent years researching the causes of the 1918-1919 pandemic. He hoped we could all learn the lessons of the past and avoid such an outbreak happening again.”
“How?” asked Zed, leaning forward in his chair.
“Well, the professor believed that Spanish flu victims buried in the permafrost of the Arctic Circle might provide scientists with sufficiently preserved internal organs for viable tissue samples. They exhumed countless bodies, hoping that the genetic sequence of the virus could be decoded. When the tissue samples were analysed, what they discovered was that a single strain of bird flu had successfully adapted to infect humans.”
“A single strain? But you said flu viruses were always mutating?”
“That’s right. We call it antigenic shift. Viruses are always evolving, exchanging genetic material with other viruses. The trick is to find the specific moment when that leap occurred. We’re forever playing catch-up with Mother Nature’s ingenuity. In some ways, it’s like following a river back to its source.”
“Then what turns a common or garden seasonal flu virus from a nuisance into a global killer?”
The doctor studied Zed carefully before answering. “The honest answer is that we simply don’t know. That’s not the answer you want, but that’s the truth.”
“So you’re telling me that after a hundred years of scientific analysis, with all your resources and technical know-how, we’re still essentially fumbling around in the dark?”
“I wouldn’t put it quite like that. The progress we’ve made in the past twenty years has been breathtaking. Genetic engineering has ushered in a new dawn.”
“What about this so-called ‘gain of function’ research?”
“It’s a very exciting area. Closely guarded. Porton Down is one of only a handful of facilities worldwide qualified to undertake that research.”
“And off the record, was your team engaged in any offensive bioweapons studies before the outbreak?”
The doctor smiled. “You know I can’t answer that. I can show you the door, but you need to walk through it yourself.”
“The door to where?”
“You asked me before about these so-called chimaera viruses Russia and North Korea were supposed to be working on, and whether two viruses could be spliced together in a lab to create a hybrid. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, a virus with the infectiousness of seasonal flu but with the mortality rate of Ebola.”
“You mean like the Millennial Virus?”
“Look, let’s be candid. We were aware of several clandestine programmes that tried and failed to develop weapons that could strike against the West. Various terrorist groups were known to be experimenting with anthrax and other home-made bacterial weapons. The trouble is, it’s much harder than it sounds. Amateur biochemists with a grudge against the world normally kill themselves long before they pose a risk to the general public.”
“But if it’s only a matter of trial and error, they’ll keep trying until one of them pulls it off. The intelligence services can’t keep track of them all.”
“Look, I know Ephesus has been helping you.”
Zed’s face remained a mask, giving nothing away.
“That old fool,” the doctor laughed. “Filling your head with stories of Nazi super weapons. The sooner you accept that this was a terrible accident of Nature, the sooner we can all move on and deal with the consequences.”
Zed thought about defending Ephesus but didn’t want to distract the doctor. He seemed to be building up a head of confessional steam.
“Let’s, for a moment, assume you’re right,” encouraged Zed. “Is it possible that the current outbreak on the island is just a seasonal spike linked to the onset of winter?”
“The team are looking at that possibility. Seasonal spikes are closely linked to reduced levels of vitamin D. During the summer months when we spend more hours outdoors in the sunshine, our natural levels of vitamin D rise. Unfortunately, it looks like we’re dealing with a new, more potent strain.”
“That’s emerged as part of this antigenic shift,” confirmed Zed, checking his notes. “Is it possible the rebels could have given Mother Nature a helping hand? We heard rumours that the group at Lymington Hospital was running experiments with different strains.”
“Manipulating a virus in this way takes highly specialist equipment, far beyond the capabilities of a local hospital. This is cutting-edge science, Mr Samuels.”
“But through trial and error might they be able to find and incubate a more potent strain?”
“With enough time and resources, I suppose it’s possible. You would still need to somehow bypass the allies’ quarantine protocols, not to mention maritime and land-based defences.”
“Humour me for a second. How would you go about infecting people on a secure island? Presumably, you can’t just do what the Americans did with Bacillus globigii and release a cloud of virus to drift over the water.”
“Air release is only effective for chemical or bacterial agents.” He sighed. “The influenza virus is airborne but extremely vulnerable to sunlight, wind, or even temperature change. Viruses generally cannot live long outside of a host. Your best chance would be to use a human vector. Infect some unsuspecting person and hope that their symptoms don’t materialise before they clear quarantine.”
“And from there?”
“Nature would run its course. The virus would jump from person to person, camp to camp, town to town until the whole island became infected. Without a viable vaccine, it would be unstoppable.”
There was a knock on the door, and the colonel and his aide entered the room. He seemed pleasantly surprised to find Zed and the doctor together.
“If I’m interrupting, I can come back…”
“You’re not. We’re just exploring some ideas.”
“Good. I’m afraid we need you back in Operations. The Americans are getting very hot under the collar.”
“About what?”
“They’re trying to throw our epidemiologists under the bus, blaming them for inadequate controls. Perhaps you can come and explain?”
****
The doctor leaned back in his chair and threw his head back in annoyance, staring down Lieutenant Peterson.
“Look, the quarantine protocols were drawn up by the very best. Porton Down’s own senior epidemiologist, Gill Stephens, was heavily involved.”
“Then perhaps we can get her in here and explain why two of my men are in the morgue,” said Lieutenant Peterson.
“Unfortunately, she can’t be here. She was injured in the attack.” The doctor glanced at Zed. For
a moment, Zed thought he saw a hint of a triumphant smile on his lips.
“She was poisoned,” corrected Zed, staring back defiantly.
“We don’t know that for sure.”
“Gentlemen,” interrupted David Woods, the politician. “I totally refute the allegation that we were not well prepared. The UK Government developed its quarantine protocols based on WHO guidelines. For years now we’ve been conducting contingency exercises involving the police, military, fire brigade and the NHS. We did everything we could. We stockpiled antivirals, designated schools and leisure facilities as treatment centres and morgues. The island was our best chance.”
“Then how do you explain that those measures so spectacularly failed?” asked Peterson. “If your boys had done their jobs, Mr Woods, none of this would have happened.”
“Please,” interrupted the colonel. “Blaming each other is not going to get us anywhere. Doctor?”
“I worked closely with Miss Stephens. The contingency plans were robust and well designed. Mother Nature simply found a way. The virus adapted.”
“And your report states that this latest outbreak could be far deadlier?”
“If I’m right, the first pandemic was just the dress rehearsal for the ‘real thing’.”
“Meaning?”
“Look, we’re still playing catch-up. We need to think differently if we’re to get ahead of this.”
“We knew we were sitting on a ticking bomb,” claimed the American. “Experts have been warning us for years. All that planning and preparation counted for nothing.”
“If our models are right,” continued the doctor, “without a viable vaccine, we could be looking at a species-defining extinction event. The end of human life as we know it.”
Peterson laughed, shaking his head. “You Brits. All you seem to do round here is drink tea and talk about the end of the world,” he mocked. “This situation requires definitive action. Operation Cleansweep was designed for exactly this scenario.”
“We’re not at that stage yet, lieutenant,” cautioned Captain Armstrong.
“It’s the only way we’re going to get ahead of this. Look, if you all lack the backbone—”
“Lieutenant,” interrupted the colonel. “Whether you like it or not, we’re in this together.”
“Perhaps you are not aware,” shot back Doctor Hardy, “but your country is just as much to blame for our present circumstances.”
“You’re not suggesting we had something to do with the outbreak…”
“You keep implying Porton Down was somehow responsible. Let’s be honest, the WHO’s Sentinel programme absorbed huge budgets and resources, but delivered very little of real value,” snarled the doctor. “Mr Samuels here has investigated enough illegal weapons programmes to recognise the hallmarks of a biological agent. He maintains that there are sufficient grounds for us to be suspicious about the origin of the Millennial Virus.”
“An agent bioengineered for a specific purpose,” Zed said, taking over from the doctor. “As a collective, we’d be foolish to dismiss these lines of investigation. And while everyone’s been pointing the finger at Iraq, North Korea and Russia, there’s emerging evidence that America was conducting the bulk of the research in this area.”
“That’s ridiculous! What would the US have to gain from developing biological weapons like these?”
“Isn’t it obvious? A new world order. The annihilation of all human threats in one fell swoop. Leaving all the civilian infrastructure intact and operational for an invading force.”
“Have you lost your mind? We were the first line of defence, for God’s sake. The protector of the free world. No country did more to enforce the Biological Weapons Convention, to roll back the years on the proliferation of WMDs.”
“What a government says and does can be quite different. I’m here to tell you that the Americans were one of the worst offenders,” claimed Doctor Hardy, rising from his chair and leaning across the table to lend authority to his words. “The USA applied all its industrial might to research and production. At the end of the Second World War America possessed more than one hundred thousand tonnes of poisoned gas, more than every other nation on earth put together.”
“But that’s ancient history.”
“I wouldn’t be so sure. At the end of the Cold War and the fall of the USSR, we all knew what really happened to those Russian specialists. They were recruited by the Americans.”
“That is just conjecture.”
“No, lieutenant. I saw at first hand the continuing scale of those programmes. I toured Camp Derrick in Maryland, Horn Island in Mississippi, Granite Peak in Utah. There was an exchange programme between our two countries. The American teams were pioneering working with highly infectious organisms, including the influenza virus.”
“Yes, but as part of a robust defence strategy, doctor. You can’t seriously be suggesting that the UK’s oldest ally was using these technologies to develop first-strike weapons?”
“No one is suggesting that yet, but it’s well known that Porton Down restricted our research to biological weapons where there was a known cure, whereas places like Camp Derrick took a very different approach. In many cases, they concentrated their efforts where there was no cure. It became a race against time to stay one step ahead. Our primary defence was intelligence, learning about the current focus of numerous research programmes, including yours, and preparing the West in case of biological attack.”
“With a virus like this, it would only take one mistake. We know that industrial accidents occur—” Zed began to say.
“None of us know what really happened,” countered Peterson. “We’ve been marooned on this God-forsaken island for so long, who knows what’s going on in the rest of the world?”
“That’s right,” continued the doctor. “Since we lost all communications we only have your word for what happened.”
“We’ve told you already!” shouted Peterson in disbelief. “The virus was everywhere. We saw at first hand in Pakistan, India, Oman, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt that the world was a total goddam mess. They were all battling infection.”
“We have no reason to doubt you,” admitted the captain, “but you see, you are the first and only visitors to these shores since the outbreak. We have no way of corroborating what actually happened.”
“So, what, you think those TV and radio reports before the blackout were all faked?”
“Please, let’s all take a step back,” pleaded the colonel, trying to calm things down. “No one’s seriously accusing anyone of deliberately starting the outbreak.”
“Aren’t they? It sounds to me like the doctor was suggesting the Chester was going around infecting the world!”
Doctor Hardy smiled back. He seemed to be enjoying the lieutenant’s temporary loss of control.
“Well, I for one don’t feel like we’ve ever had an adequate explanation for why the Americans came here in the first place,” challenged David Woods. “Why choose the Isle of Wight when you could head home or anywhere else, for that matter?”
“I’ve told you before. We triangulated your radio traffic, we knew there were survivors here. With the geographical advantages of a large island with natural resources, I admit, the Isle of Wight was on our shortlist. It had everything our planners needed to kick-start a relief operation. We came here to help you, for Christ’s sake.”
“You showing up out of the blue was a bit of a surprise to all of us. A welcome one, I might add,” admitted the colonel.
“This whole region was a hot mess when we arrived. You could barely organise yourselves, let alone a relief operation. Give us a little credit. We were the catalyst that got this all started.”
“No one’s denying the role you played.”
“Well, it doesn’t sound that way to me, sir. Look, if we’re not welcome any more, you be sure to let us know, and we’ll find someplace else.”
“My apologies, lieutenant. We didn’t mean to hurt your feelings. Y
our timing was fortuitous, that’s all.”
“Look, I get it, everyone’s strung out. It’s been a difficult few days, but let’s not get distracted.”
“The lieutenant is right,” said the colonel. “The search for a cure is what matters. We simply have to find an answer.”
“One of the other main reasons we came here was because of the proximity to Porton Down,” admitted Peterson. “We are all hoping the doctor’s team could figure out the answer before it’s too late.”
“I appreciate your vote of confidence, but we still have nothing. A promising prototype with limited effectiveness against some strains of the virus.”
“Doctor, without a vaccine, we’re looking at the final rout of our civilisation.”
“We’re all aware of the urgency of our situation. Whatever it takes. How can we help you?”
“We’ll need a reliable source of test subjects. Children preferably, with immature immune systems.”
“Go on.”
“Look, I’m not indifferent to the question of medical ethics, but the discovery of a viable vaccine will vindicate every sacrifice that has been made in its creation.”
“So, spell it out. What are you really asking for?”
He hesitated as if what he really needed was too bold to give voice to. “Infants, unborn foetuses if possible.”
There was a silence round the table as they each came to terms with the real meaning of sacrifice.
“I can raise this with the sisters, but the likelihood of them actively supporting what amounts to human experimentation on aborted foetuses is, I’m afraid, zero.”
“Then someone needs to explain that this is the price we need to pay. For scientific progress.”
“One way or another, it must be done. We have to find a way, whatever it takes. It’s our biological imperative to survive.”
“If we are to get through the next few months, then we must set aside this squeamishness,” suggested the doctor.
